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  • Intraday Market Thought: A Look at February Seasonals

    by Adam Button | Feb 4, 2020 13:46
    A Look at February Seasonals Chart Global indices resume their rally after a bounce in Asian markets following PBOC&....But the news on the Corona virus front remain worrisome as cases exceed 20,600....USD is stronger across the board and GBP rebounds back above 1...30 on stronger than expected construction...Oil tested key support levels before bouncing on talk of a possible OPEC cut...Will take a look at some February seasonalities later below...Clashing statements from the UK and EU were a reminder that nothing is easy in....The pound sank to 1...2990 from 1...3175 as it wiped out the gains of the prior two days and closed at the lowest....It's clear that both sides are going to be playing games, starting with the....Boris Johnson rejected the offer only minutes later...It was a reminder that it will be a bumpy road toward a deal, if one ever....Political headlines will be a constant headwind...But pay a close watch on GBPUSD and the chart Ashraf posted yesterday, which....US factory orders are next...Elsewhere, sentiment was positive outside of oil...A risk-on bounce couldn't halt a drop that's now extended to 24% from....Worse still, WTI crude fell below a triple bottom at $51 and broke $50 for....OPEC+ continues to make noise about a production cut but the market is already....Meanwhile, US 10-year yields bottomed at 1...50%....A quick look at the February seasonals:....The February, March and April are the three best months for WTI crude....Bitcoin has climbed in five straight years in February...US natural gas is at a four-year low but Feb is the worst month...US Crude oil (WTI) rose in February in each of the last 15 years, with the....Would you like to get these Intraday Market Thoughts in your mailbox? Start..

  • Intraday Market Thought: US Rides High into Non-Farm Payrolls

    by Adam Button | Feb 6, 2020 22:49
    US Rides High into Non-Farm Payrolls Chart Markets were more settled Thursday and that's typical of the lull before....The US dollar was the top performer while the pound lagged...The Canadian jobs report is due along with the US report...Ashraf posted a Premium video ahead of NFP, addressing the 3 key points below...The US dollar crosses some technical thresholds Thursday, but only....EUR/USD fell through 1...1000 and touched the lowest since October while USD/JPY rose above 110...00 for the first time since the coronavirus flare up on January 21...GBPUSD softened for the third time in four days this week and is now less than....Even with the S&P 500 edging to a record, the commodity currencies....The Australian dollar erased Wednesday's gain and USD/CAD briefly rose above....33 for the first time since Dec 3...All the moves lacked genuine conviction and bonds were flat with no particularly....Russia continues to be the reluctant partner...The day ahead will be all about jobs with the US non-farm payrolls report....The market is probably priced 10-20K a bit higher after Wednesday's ADP....The dollar will need some measure of positive news to sustain its recent....From a traders' point of view, USDX has pushed to news highs ahead of US....By the same token, gold has recovered off its 1550s lows to climb along....Ashraf mentions some similarities with the current set-up and suggests possible....The Canadian jobs data released at the same time tends to be more volatile and....The consensus is an unusually high +17...5K after a +27...3K reading in December...Finally, the past two Friday's have featured a late-week selloff on....That's still a risk but with new cases now falling in China, it may not..

  • Intraday Market Thought: The Great Re-Opening Debate

    by Adam Button | May 5, 2020 14:27
    The Great Re-Opening Debate Chart As markets shift attention to the details of reopening global economies,....More on that  below...The market shrugged off the escalation in US-China tensions once again Monday....The US sevrices ISM is up next...Economic data Monday showed US factory orders falling 10...3% compared to 9...4% expected...It was the worst report on record, dating back to 1957...Ominously, the decline was almost entirely focused on the transportation....The aircraft and auto orders aren't coming back any time soon but it means....More importantly, the market shrugged off another data point...If anything, risk trades ticked higher just after the release...Traders have decided that economic data right doesn't matter at present...It will be horrific and we're undoubtedly in the worst quarter of our....Where the debate starts is on the recovery...The baseline right now appears to be that governments and central banks will....How much is the big question...Morgan Stanley was out with a report Monday drawing parallels to the China....In particular they look at the consumer sector, which is a smaller part of China&....Extrapolating from that experience, they forecast that in Aug-Oct, discretionary....It's hard to say if that's the market's baseline but that is a....There's no doubt that unemployment in that period will still be in double....Moreover, the comparison with China is a stretch...That country has virtually eradicated the virus so the risks around going out....Few other countries will be able to say the same thing in Q3...In terms of data, expect the market to tune in progressively as countries and....With regards to the upcoming services ISM, since services have always..

  • Intraday Market Thought: Jobs Jump Fades

    by Adam Button | Jul 3, 2020 11:19
    Jobs Jump Fades Chart Risk trades initially cheered an unexpectedly strong non-farm payrolls....nbsp; Strong US data and recovering China PMIs helped affirm the paragdigm....nbsp; XAG, AUD, NZD are leading against the USD, while GBP and CHF lag...The US is on holiday, giving markets a chance to regroup...Monday's long DOW30 trade in the Premium Insights' hit its 26200....Strong US jobs & caveats....US June non-farm payrolls roundly beat expectations with 4...8m new jobs added compared to the 3...2m consensus...In addition, the prior two reports were revised modestly higher...Perhaps most impressive was the unemployment rate at 11...1% compared to 12...5% expected...The caveat that market participants had been watching surrounding that metric....It had swelled recently and would have meant an additional 3 percentage point....The BLS highlighted that many of those probably belonged in the unemployed....This month, they estimated that only 1 pp of them were likely miscategorized...Perhaps more interesting was how the market responded to the data...Initially it was strongly positive for risk assets but that faded, particularly....The tug-of-war between the virus and reopening continues and it was data from....In particular, 10,109 cases in Florida was a new record an exceed all the daily....The charts below were posted on Ashraf's WhatsApp Broadcast Group right....With the US headed out for a holiday on Friday, the market is likely to quiet..

  • Intraday Market Thought: Will Powell go Deep?

    by Adam Button | Aug 27, 2020 12:16
    Will Powell go Deep? Chart Hurricane Laura hit the heart of the US refining region as a major storm early....Traders are fixated on Fed chair Powell's speech coming up at 9:00 Eastern....Half hour before the speech, markets receive the 2nd reading of US Q2 GDP and....106mln...Jul pending home sales follow 90 mins later, exp +2% m/m from the prev 17% m/m...nbsp; , The New Zealand dollar was the top performer while the euro lagged...nbsp; Below is the JOINTEnglish-Arabic Premium Video, detailing the case for....nbsp;....The major refining area stretching from Beamont, TX to Lake Charles, LA was....The storm made landfall with higher windspeeds than either Katrina or Harvey....It's far too early to evaluate this storm and it's hitting a less-....The day ahead though belongs to Powell...Expect him to recommit to doing everything in the Fed's power to....Anything less than that would sour the market...At the same time, you have to wonder if the Fed is considering the potential....Retail margin costs are as low as 0...75% and those rates almost beg mom-and-pop investors to lever up...The topic of Powell's speech at 1310 GMT is the Fed's framework review....That would add more fuel to the risk fire and it could reinvigorate precious....The larger risks may be on the downside though if he offers less than expected...The latest equity market moves show signs of classic euphoria with (for..

  • Intraday Market Thought: Game Changers & Setters

    by Adam Button | Nov 12, 2020 0:08
    Game Changers & Setters Chart Indices are caught between the threat of surging cases (and deaths) prompting....After Wednesday's closing bell, Moderna said its vaccine trial got....Is OIL showing a gravestone doji daily candle? Does GOLD show vulnerability at....40s? Below is a sample of Wednesday's trades to the WhatsApp Broadcast Group....A new Premium trade was also issued to all subscribers...Bonds & Indices....We continue to watch 1...00% in the US 10-year yield and how market behaves if/when it breaks...Will a breakout be a reflection of outright risk-on surge and optimism to....Outside of that, the mode in markets continues to be selling the US dollar....There is a mountain of money parked in the US bond market that's waiting....News of a vaccine that could potentially eradicate the virus may be that trigger....GBP and Brexit ....Just 24 hours ago it seemed like crunch time in Brexit talks as EU and UK....As cable hit the 1...3290s, we were reminded that the pair never dipped below 1...40 for decades before Brexit...At present, the contours of the new deal don't appear to be onerous and....See in the above WhatsApp snapshots how Ashraf called cable's peak near 1...3330s for members of the WhatsApp Broadcast Group, minutes before 1...3312 was hit and held ....nbsp;..

  • Intraday Market Thought: Peak Virus World, Post-Virus Market

    by Adam Button | Nov 16, 2020 23:34
    Peak Virus World, Post-Virus Market Chart The Moderna vaccine news on Monday is wonderful news and it solidifies the....Yields rose, dragging down gold and silver off their Asia Monday session....More on the VIX and Cryptos below...Then after the NY close, S&P announced the addition of Tesla to its....The chart belows highights the importance of 22...0 on the VIX...More below...Moderna revealed preliminary vaccine data Monday and it showed similarly....Two candidates will further speed progress to delivery and even better....This comes at the same time as virus cases are hitting new daily peaks....It's a horrible human tragedy and we urge all our readers to stay safe....For the markets, it's clear now that the pandemic hardly matters...Governments have taken all the fiscal weight and central banks have made....From an equity market perspective, traders are watching the crucial 22....Why should this year and 2021 matter? So long as companies can be debt and cash-....And why not? There is no safe yield so even zero earnings or a small dividend....This same thinking is helping to boost emerging market currencies...RUB, ZAR and MXN all started the week strong and event the beaten-down....The important question going forward will be how long the fiscal and monetary....Central bankers have tied their own hands and governments have no reason to....Looking towards Tuesday, the week's top data point is due out at 1330 GMT....The consumer has shown no signs of slowing down and the Fed's Clarida....The consensus is for a 0...5% rise following September's 1...9% climb.

  • Intraday Market Thought: The Summer Sizzle is Coming

    by Adam Button | Apr 26, 2021 13:19
    The Summer Sizzle is Coming Chart Just how strong will the economy be in 2021? Resilient through recent lockdowns....EURUSD had its first test of the December trendline resistance after....Expect gold to retest and break above its own 100-DMA this week...nbsp; It will be a busy week with the Fed, Biden's tax plan and more....The CFTC positioning data showed renewed bets on the Canadian dollar...Both EUR and CAD have done well...Here's a monthly chart of EURCAD...What do you think? US Drable goods orders...are next...nbsp;....There's no post-pandemic playbook...Economists were in uncharted territory heading into the pandemic and will be....Almost every step of the way so far, the returns are better than anticipated...As the US reopens, the latest signs are impressive...Survey data is the most-forward looking and on Friday the Markit services PMI....1 compared to 61...5 expected...It was the same thing in similar surveys elsewhere and nearly all of them cited....Some of the anecdotal reports are so glowing, they were hard to believe at....ldquo;Restaurants spent much of the past year trying to win back customers...Now, they are struggling to win back employees,” the WSJ wrote on....A similar boom is brewing in the UK, which is just behind the US in vaccines...The BOE's Broadbent highlighted “very rapid “ growth on the....Forecasts are nearing +7% for the year...The week ahead is very heavy on economic data and earnings, with the FOMC....It starts with the US durable goods orders report for March at 1230 GMT...CFTC Commitments of Traders....Speculative net futures trader positions as of the close on Tuesday...Net short denoted by - long by....EUR +81K vs +67K prior...GBP +25K vs +26K prior...JPY -60K vs -58K prior...CHF +2K vs +1K prior...CAD +13K vs +2K prior...AUD -2K vs +4K prior...NZD +4K vs +3K prior...What's fascinating about the rise in CAD longs is that it came on Tuesday,....The loonie fell hard in the day ahead of the decision but someone was clearly....Expect CAD positioning to stretch further in next week's report.

  • Intraday Market Thought: Complex Trajectory

    by Adam Button | May 17, 2021 14:06
    Complex Trajectory Chart Today, the UK fully reopens its restaurants and cafes but bad weather....So far this month we've gotten surprise reports on US jobs, inflation....The numbers sent markets on a wild ride, but ultimately very little changed in....CFTC positioning data showed rising bets against the US dollar...nbsp; Gold regained its 200-DMA for the 1st time in 3 months...Take a look at the 4 key points on gold in Friday's video...Euro and yen were the strongest currencies of the day by the end of the....Our Whatsapp Broadcast Group members told of bolstering longs in EURNZD....Euro and yen ended up the strongest of the day and NZD the weakest...nbsp; FX is a relative game--need to optimize the strongest vs weakest (see....nbsp; http://ashraflaidi...com/admin/content/preview/36664....https://www...binance...com/en?ref=13288560...Friday's data added to the murky economic situation in the US...Retail sales and consumer confidence were both on the soft side but inflation....6% compared to 3...5% expected...That's the highest since 2008...It's especially notable because last week several Fed officials specifically....At the same time, the bond market continues to exhibit calm...On Friday, US 10-year yields fell 2...9 bps to 1...63%....We see both side of the inflation argument and expect it to continue for....Ultimately though, it's incredibly difficult to bet against both the Fed....CFTC Commitments of Traders....Speculative net futures trader positions as of the close on Tuesday...Net short denoted by - long by....EUR +94K vs +85K prior...GBP +28K vs +20K prior...JPY -42K vs -41K prior...CHF -3K vs 0K prior...CAD +39K vs +26K prior...AUD +2K vs +1K prior...NZD +9K vs +9K prior...This is one of the larger one-week shifts in a year but it only encompasses....The whipsaw from CPI likely unwound some of this month with some of those dollar....An ongoing trend in the past three weeks is aggressive CAD buying and given how....nbsp;..

  • Intraday Market Thought: Oil Breaks, Will CAD Follow?

    by Adam Button | Jun 2, 2021 13:14
    Oil Breaks, Will CAD Follow? Chart Crude oil broke out as OPEC+ confirmed it will follow its script to slowly....Much of that may have been the result of a strong bid in the US dollar to start....With regards to Ashraf's latest Video on gold, some have misunderstood....That is false...Ashraf is basically explaining that in order for gold to repeat such a crash, a....Below is the performance of CAD vs metals and currencies Year-to-Date...nbsp;....Oil challenged the March highs five times in May before finally breaking....The OPEC+ decision was no surprise but the commentary from oil ministers was....OPEC, like everyone else in the oil market, is now waiting to see what....We tend to think that a return of that oil is fully priced in but how fast....For now the market is signaling that crude is destined to follow other....So why then didn't the loonie follow it? USD/CAD touched a marginal new two-....2005 but couldn't break through the figure and climbed to 1...2075...The answer is that a broad US dollar bid hit that was likely flow driven...ISM manufacturing data was close to expectations as supply bottlenecks....The numbers likely weren't behind the dollar bid, which was also....For USD/CAD it may only be a matter of time...The 1...20 level is a key psychological level but is also the 2018 low, making it....If oil can hold at these levels through an Iran deal, it would be an incredibly....Seasonally, there is also some good news for commodity currencies...June is the 2nd strongest month for CAD, AUD and NZD over the past 20 years...It's also a stronger month for oil...In general, it's a soft month for the US dollar, with USD/CHF particularly....It's also the third best month for EUR/USD...In equities, there's an interesting divergence were it's a solid month..
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