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  • Intraday Market Thought: Trump, USDJPY & Wilkins

    by Adam Button | Sep 7, 2018 11:27
    Trump, USDJPY & Wilkins Chart A hint that Trump may target Japan next sent USD/JPY lower Thursday while the....That's quite fitting considering the US and Canada jobs reports are due next...The yen was the top performer while the New Zealand dollar lagged...A new trade for Premium subscribers will go out ahead of jobs...إستغلال اندماج الأسواق" (فيديو المشتركين)....Japan has been curiously sidelined in the global trade war despite being an....The country has a large trade surplus and a structural imbalance with the US...It's also routinely angling for a weaker currency...Much of the credit initially went to Abe who went on a major charm offensive....In comments to a WSJ opinion columnist Thursday Trump he was described as....The news comes as NAFTA signs continue to improve...The tone was once again positive with Lighthizer even making a rare quip to....Leaders appear to be pushing for a deal before the weekend but that's not a....With all eyes on NAFTA, it was the BOC that stole the trading spotlight for CAD....Taking it out would imply a faster pace of rate hikes...Ultimately, they left it in but the comment suggests they're more likely..

  • Intraday Market Thought: Global Housing is Hurting, onto ISM Services

    by Adam Button | Jan 7, 2019 14:36
    Global Housing is Hurting, onto ISM Services Chart A soft weekend on UK housing on the weekend adds to a growing list of places....USD is is lower across the board ahead of key US data with CHF leading and CAD....Powell's Friday comments reignited risk assets but this episode has likely....What's troubling is that even with rates at these historically low levels,....This highlights the fact that we should focus on the incremental increase in....On the weekend, Nationwide reported that UK house prices fell 2...1% in the past year...They had been forecast to rise 0...5%....More worrisome is that prices are down 1...6% and 0...7% in the past two months alone...It's far from isolated with home prices suffering in the US, parts of....Luxury markets have been under particular pressure with Manhattan,....The common theme might be China where apartment prices in parts of the country....It begs the question of how much Chinese wealth was support markets elsewhere...It also adds to the worries that China's consumer is tapped out...In the bigger picture, the malaise in the housing market is another reason for....On that front, mid-level officials are set to meet this week in Beijing and....Looking to Monday's US session, the highlight is the ISM non-manufacturing....The market is extremely sensitive to economic data at the moment and a miss....The consensus is for a small dip to 59...0 from 60...7.

  • Intraday Market Thought: GBP Maintains Momentum above 1.30

    by Adam Button | Jan 23, 2019 15:06
    GBP Maintains Momentum above 1.30 Chart For the 4th straight day, the British pound is the strongest currency of the....More details on the amendment here...Indices recover half of yesterday's losses after reports of cancelling US-....The Premium long in cable is currently over 180 pips in the green...A new Premium trade will be posted before the close of the London's....Global indices are rallying back following last night's pullback....That sent USD/JPY as low as 109...16 before later rebounding to 109...40 when White House advisor Kudlow denied the report...USDJPY is now at....S&P 500 is up 15 pts after having closed down 34 points on Tuesday in a....2600 remains a key support and the index is likely to retest 2680...At the same time, US existing home sales were a reminder of troubles at home....4% m/m decline in December; much worse than the -1...5% consensus...Chinese growth also remains a key concern with the IMF lowering its....4%....That's in-line with expectations but a reminder that the pace is headed in....NZD resumes Wednesday's gains after NZ inflation rose slightly faster than....CPI rose 1...9% y/y in Q4 compared to 1...8% expected...Core measures also rose at a faster pace than Q3...The market is trying to figure out whether the RBNZ will cut rates this..

  • Intraday Market Thought: Onto the ECB

    by Adam Button | Jun 6, 2019 12:30
    Onto the ECB Chart The pivot towards economic data is in full swing as the Fed and market....The US dollar rebounded Wednesday but it was a rough ride...The ECB decision is next and the main question is whether any more dovishness....A new Index trade was issued yesterday for Premium susbcribers...The market's fresh focus on economic data was on full display Wednesday...The weakest ADP reading in nine-years sent USD/JPY to the lowest since early....Even with the turn in data, the market isn't exactly sure what it wants...The bond market is entirely focused on the Fed and the front end of the....Stock markets like the idea of rate cuts but hate the idea of weaker growth so....The FX market is also caught in the middle...USD/JPY and USD/CHF are straight-forward USD-negatives on bad news but other USD....Generally, it's the latter but on tariff-specific news the dollar can....On that front, the first day of US-Mexico meetings ended without a deal as....Talks will continue and the come after Fitch downgraded Mexico and Moody's....Those headlines will be key late in the day but earlier the focus will be on....The market will be looking for TLTRO details and the possible introduction of....Economic forecasts could also be trimmed but the reaction to that will depend on....Expect plenty of hand-wringing about global trade.

  • Intraday Market Thought: A Look at February Seasonals

    by Adam Button | Feb 4, 2020 13:46
    A Look at February Seasonals Chart Global indices resume their rally after a bounce in Asian markets following PBOC&....But the news on the Corona virus front remain worrisome as cases exceed 20,600....USD is stronger across the board and GBP rebounds back above 1...30 on stronger than expected construction...Oil tested key support levels before bouncing on talk of a possible OPEC cut...Will take a look at some February seasonalities later below...Clashing statements from the UK and EU were a reminder that nothing is easy in....The pound sank to 1...2990 from 1...3175 as it wiped out the gains of the prior two days and closed at the lowest....It's clear that both sides are going to be playing games, starting with the....Boris Johnson rejected the offer only minutes later...It was a reminder that it will be a bumpy road toward a deal, if one ever....Political headlines will be a constant headwind...But pay a close watch on GBPUSD and the chart Ashraf posted yesterday, which....US factory orders are next...Elsewhere, sentiment was positive outside of oil...A risk-on bounce couldn't halt a drop that's now extended to 24% from....Worse still, WTI crude fell below a triple bottom at $51 and broke $50 for....OPEC+ continues to make noise about a production cut but the market is already....Meanwhile, US 10-year yields bottomed at 1...50%....A quick look at the February seasonals:....The February, March and April are the three best months for WTI crude....Bitcoin has climbed in five straight years in February...US natural gas is at a four-year low but Feb is the worst month...US Crude oil (WTI) rose in February in each of the last 15 years, with the....Would you like to get these Intraday Market Thoughts in your mailbox? Start..

  • Intraday Market Thought: US Rides High into Non-Farm Payrolls

    by Adam Button | Feb 6, 2020 22:49
    US Rides High into Non-Farm Payrolls Chart Markets were more settled Thursday and that's typical of the lull before....The US dollar was the top performer while the pound lagged...The Canadian jobs report is due along with the US report...Ashraf posted a Premium video ahead of NFP, addressing the 3 key points below...The US dollar crosses some technical thresholds Thursday, but only....EUR/USD fell through 1...1000 and touched the lowest since October while USD/JPY rose above 110...00 for the first time since the coronavirus flare up on January 21...GBPUSD softened for the third time in four days this week and is now less than....Even with the S&P 500 edging to a record, the commodity currencies....The Australian dollar erased Wednesday's gain and USD/CAD briefly rose above....33 for the first time since Dec 3...All the moves lacked genuine conviction and bonds were flat with no particularly....Russia continues to be the reluctant partner...The day ahead will be all about jobs with the US non-farm payrolls report....The market is probably priced 10-20K a bit higher after Wednesday's ADP....The dollar will need some measure of positive news to sustain its recent....From a traders' point of view, USDX has pushed to news highs ahead of US....By the same token, gold has recovered off its 1550s lows to climb along....Ashraf mentions some similarities with the current set-up and suggests possible....The Canadian jobs data released at the same time tends to be more volatile and....The consensus is an unusually high +17...5K after a +27...3K reading in December...Finally, the past two Friday's have featured a late-week selloff on....That's still a risk but with new cases now falling in China, it may not..

  • Intraday Market Thought: The Great Re-Opening Debate

    by Adam Button | May 5, 2020 14:27
    The Great Re-Opening Debate Chart As markets shift attention to the details of reopening global economies,....More on that  below...The market shrugged off the escalation in US-China tensions once again Monday....The US sevrices ISM is up next...Economic data Monday showed US factory orders falling 10...3% compared to 9...4% expected...It was the worst report on record, dating back to 1957...Ominously, the decline was almost entirely focused on the transportation....The aircraft and auto orders aren't coming back any time soon but it means....More importantly, the market shrugged off another data point...If anything, risk trades ticked higher just after the release...Traders have decided that economic data right doesn't matter at present...It will be horrific and we're undoubtedly in the worst quarter of our....Where the debate starts is on the recovery...The baseline right now appears to be that governments and central banks will....How much is the big question...Morgan Stanley was out with a report Monday drawing parallels to the China....In particular they look at the consumer sector, which is a smaller part of China&....Extrapolating from that experience, they forecast that in Aug-Oct, discretionary....It's hard to say if that's the market's baseline but that is a....There's no doubt that unemployment in that period will still be in double....Moreover, the comparison with China is a stretch...That country has virtually eradicated the virus so the risks around going out....Few other countries will be able to say the same thing in Q3...In terms of data, expect the market to tune in progressively as countries and....With regards to the upcoming services ISM, since services have always..

  • Intraday Market Thought: Jobs Jump Fades

    by Adam Button | Jul 3, 2020 11:19
    Jobs Jump Fades Chart Risk trades initially cheered an unexpectedly strong non-farm payrolls....nbsp; Strong US data and recovering China PMIs helped affirm the paragdigm....nbsp; XAG, AUD, NZD are leading against the USD, while GBP and CHF lag...The US is on holiday, giving markets a chance to regroup...Monday's long DOW30 trade in the Premium Insights' hit its 26200....Strong US jobs & caveats....US June non-farm payrolls roundly beat expectations with 4...8m new jobs added compared to the 3...2m consensus...In addition, the prior two reports were revised modestly higher...Perhaps most impressive was the unemployment rate at 11...1% compared to 12...5% expected...The caveat that market participants had been watching surrounding that metric....It had swelled recently and would have meant an additional 3 percentage point....The BLS highlighted that many of those probably belonged in the unemployed....This month, they estimated that only 1 pp of them were likely miscategorized...Perhaps more interesting was how the market responded to the data...Initially it was strongly positive for risk assets but that faded, particularly....The tug-of-war between the virus and reopening continues and it was data from....In particular, 10,109 cases in Florida was a new record an exceed all the daily....The charts below were posted on Ashraf's WhatsApp Broadcast Group right....With the US headed out for a holiday on Friday, the market is likely to quiet..

  • Intraday Market Thought: Will Powell go Deep?

    by Adam Button | Aug 27, 2020 12:16
    Will Powell go Deep? Chart Hurricane Laura hit the heart of the US refining region as a major storm early....Traders are fixated on Fed chair Powell's speech coming up at 9:00 Eastern....Half hour before the speech, markets receive the 2nd reading of US Q2 GDP and....106mln...Jul pending home sales follow 90 mins later, exp +2% m/m from the prev 17% m/m...nbsp; , The New Zealand dollar was the top performer while the euro lagged...nbsp; Below is the JOINTEnglish-Arabic Premium Video, detailing the case for....nbsp;....The major refining area stretching from Beamont, TX to Lake Charles, LA was....The storm made landfall with higher windspeeds than either Katrina or Harvey....It's far too early to evaluate this storm and it's hitting a less-....The day ahead though belongs to Powell...Expect him to recommit to doing everything in the Fed's power to....Anything less than that would sour the market...At the same time, you have to wonder if the Fed is considering the potential....Retail margin costs are as low as 0...75% and those rates almost beg mom-and-pop investors to lever up...The topic of Powell's speech at 1310 GMT is the Fed's framework review....That would add more fuel to the risk fire and it could reinvigorate precious....The larger risks may be on the downside though if he offers less than expected...The latest equity market moves show signs of classic euphoria with (for..

  • Intraday Market Thought: Game Changers & Setters

    by Adam Button | Nov 12, 2020 0:08
    Game Changers & Setters Chart Indices are caught between the threat of surging cases (and deaths) prompting....After Wednesday's closing bell, Moderna said its vaccine trial got....Is OIL showing a gravestone doji daily candle? Does GOLD show vulnerability at....40s? Below is a sample of Wednesday's trades to the WhatsApp Broadcast Group....A new Premium trade was also issued to all subscribers...Bonds & Indices....We continue to watch 1...00% in the US 10-year yield and how market behaves if/when it breaks...Will a breakout be a reflection of outright risk-on surge and optimism to....Outside of that, the mode in markets continues to be selling the US dollar....There is a mountain of money parked in the US bond market that's waiting....News of a vaccine that could potentially eradicate the virus may be that trigger....GBP and Brexit ....Just 24 hours ago it seemed like crunch time in Brexit talks as EU and UK....As cable hit the 1...3290s, we were reminded that the pair never dipped below 1...40 for decades before Brexit...At present, the contours of the new deal don't appear to be onerous and....See in the above WhatsApp snapshots how Ashraf called cable's peak near 1...3330s for members of the WhatsApp Broadcast Group, minutes before 1...3312 was hit and held ....nbsp;..
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