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  • Intraday Market Thought: G20 Countdown & Fed Optionality

    by Adam Button | Nov 30, 2018 14:33
    G20 Countdown & Fed Optionality Chart The Fed Minutes had something for everyone on Thursday while the euro....But all changed today amid month-end flows and a decline in Eurozone CPI to 2...0%, sending the US dollar higher against all currencies...The G20 begins on Friday in what could be a turning point for markets...A new Premium index trade was posted on Thursday evening, whose rationale is....When I asked Ashraf if it's a risk to leave the trade open into the weekend-....nbsp; The question posed in the chart below has  crucial implications for....Stay tuned...Fed gets into Optionality....The FOMC Minutes usually have a little something for everyone and Thursday'....The hawks will note that almost all officials saw gradual hikes as....More importantly, the minutes revealed members are working on optionality....Said differently, they are discussing whether to change language in the policy....The US dollar didn't react to the Minutes but slipped earlier on Thursday....Oil rebounded 2% on the day on a report that Russian oil companies are willing....G20 or G2?....It's called the G20 but all eyes are on the G2 (US and CHina)....Most markets were little moved on the day as we brace for the G20 meeting and....Trump left for Buenos Aires with a mixed message...He said he was close to doing something on trade with China but that “....rdquo; He also touted the revenue from the tariffs...The meeting with Xi is on Saturday so the risk of gaps into next week is....The question is: What's priced in? There is no reasonable expectation of a....China's goal is likely to run out the clock on Trump by making the minimum....That's a good baseline for what markets are looking for as well...The problem is that Trump's team has sniffed out that strategy...The WSJ reported that there's a deal on the table to lift some Chinese....Elsewhere, German CPI was slightly below estimates...ECB Governing Council member Hernandez also said the eurozone economy was....Impressively, the euro added to gains after Wednesday bullish reversal.

  • Intraday Market Thought: USD Worries Ahead of Jobs Report & Powell

    by Adam Button | Jan 3, 2019 23:07
    USD Worries Ahead of Jobs Report & Powell Chart The US ISM manufacturing report confirmed worries about the impact of....The yen was the top performer while the US dollar lagged...Nonfarm payrolls are due up next but a speech from Fed chair Powell could steal....Currently, Fed funds futures show a greater chance of the Fed cutting....بين اليورو و الداو (فيديو للمشتركين)....The December ISM manufacturing index fell to 54...1 from 59...3...Economists expected a drop to 57...5 after some weak regional numbers but the fall was worse than the lowest....In particular, the new orders component cratered to 51...1 from 62...1 and commentary in the report heavily emphasized tariffs...The drop led to a wave of speculation that the Fed is going to have to do a....The implied odds are now up to 40% and Treasury yields dropped on the same....The US dollar sank as its yield advantage erodes and concerns mount....The S&P 500 fell 62 points to 2447...The dollar was particularly hard hit against the commodity currencies late in....In the past four months the market has been scrambling into US dollars on a....If there's some US-centric weakness, then watch out for a quick reversal in....Friday's non-farm payrolls report will be a part of that...The ADP data hinted at a very strong number as it showed 271K new jobs....This may simply be part of the secular shift towards seasonal hiring and a sign....In any case, the risks may be skewed to downside for the dollar...A strong non-farm payrolls would be brushed off as a lagging indicator while....The lasting dollar trade may come on Powell's comments...He's undoubtedly pivoting away from his hawkish stance and it's only a....On Thursday, Kaplan said he wants to wait through Q2 in a pause, Powell may....Also, don't forget the Canadian employment report which is due at the....The November print was +94...1K which was the strongest on record...The consensus is for a still-rosy +6K but there's a risk of a major give-..

  • Intraday Market Thought: GBP Solid ahead of May's Vote

    by Adam Button | Jan 16, 2019 12:59
    GBP Solid ahead of May's Vote Chart Do all roads lead to an extension of Article 50? Or do they lead to a soft....Cable whipsawed before and after yesterday's vote, as it sank to 1...2670 only to rebound to 1...2870...Earlier today, BoE governor Carney said the pound's recovery reflects....The Brexit saga is far from over...A new trade for Premium subscribers was posted earlier this morning and sent out....A GBP trade is likely to be issued around the close of the London cash....Theresa May tested her Brexit deal in Parliament and the result was resounding....That's a massive rejection but it wasn't entirely unexpected...Betting sites had pegged 200-229 votes in favor as the most-likely outcome...What remains entirely unclear is how the UK will get out of this mess...The next step is a vote of confidence in the government, which will take place....Despite the overwhelming rejection of the Brexit bill, May is expected to win...The DUP and ERG said they will support her and Conservatives aren't likely....That said, it's not impossible...If PM May loses tonight, she would have 14 days to regain the confidence of the....Until then, May could resign as leader and be replaced...If PM wins (expected) It is widely indicated by MPs and indirect reports....Undoubtedly she will try to go back to the EU and win some kind of concession....So far the EU has said that isn't happening, but we did hear of the bloc&....Beyond that the UK remains in an epic quagmire...One option is for May to play a game of chicken with parliament as the March 29....Already there are calls to delay it but it's tough to see how that solves....Alternatively, Article 50 could be extended to delay Brexit beyond March....Meanwhile, the pound has been wildly volatile...It sold off heavily ahead of the vote then recouped the entire move...It's a stretch to ascribe any coherent narrative to either move as..

  • Intraday Market Thought: Forex Brokers' Performance

    by Ashraf Laidi | Feb 12, 2019 11:52
    Forex Brokers' Performance Chart Here's the latest on the share price performance of 6 publicly traded forex....Full chart & write-up.

  • Intraday Market Thought: Into FOMC & Brexit Vote

    by Ashraf Laidi | Mar 15, 2019 18:54
    Into FOMC & Brexit Vote Chart GBP ends another week as the strongest currency (see chart below of USD against....Now that British Parliament has voted against a no-deal and in favour of....Global indices are pushing higher across the board and a key factor in deciding....Brexit vote is on Tuesday and FOMC announcement/press conference and dot....The Fed stmt and Powell's press conference should shed more light on....From a trading perspective, 7 out of our 8 Premium trades are currently in the....The 8 trades arein: EURUSD, GBPUSD, USDCHF, GOLD, SILVER, USOIL, BITCOIN and..

  • Intraday Market Thought: Onto Consumers, Month-End & Fed

    by Adam Button | Apr 29, 2019 12:51
    Onto Consumers, Month-End & Fed Chart The US dollar initially jumped after Friday's release of strong headline....CFTC positioning data hinted a why dollar bulls are so uneasy...Take a look at the chart of USDX spec net longs below...nbsp; Key US data on personal spending and core PCE price index is due next...The combination of month-end flows, Wednesday's Fed statement and BoE&....The kneejerk market reaction to the first look at Q1 US GDP was to buy the....The economy expanded at a 3...2% pace, far in excess of the 2...3% expected...Immediately, the dollar just a quarter-cent across the board but almost as....That's because one-off factors were behind the gain as inventories add 0...65 pp, net trade added 1...03 pp and government spending contributed 0...41 pp...Those are all likely to reverse...Strip them out and growth was just under 1...2%....Ashraf warned about the inventories factor on Twitter minutes prior to the....Another market mover on Friday was oil as it fell more than 4% at one point on....Saudi leaders and the OPEC secretary general both denied speaking with the....nbsp;....CFTC Commitments of Traders....Speculative net futures trader positions as of the close on Tuesday...Net short denoted by - long by....This week's report was delayed because of the US holiday...EUR -105K vs -98K prior...GBP -2K vs -1K prior...JPY -94K vs -87K prior...CHF -38K vs -33K prior...CAD -47K vs -49K prior...AUD -50K vs -47K prior...NZD -5K vs -3K prior....The euro net short hit a fresh extreme since December 2016 but it's been....The bigger moves in the report are in JPY and CHF as bets against both ramp up....However that's tough to square given the large bets against commodity FX...On the whole, it's a market that's continuing to pile into dollars and..

  • Intraday Market Thought: Peso Perspectives and Primed for Payrolls

    by Adam Button | Jun 7, 2019 11:38
    Peso Perspectives and Primed for Payrolls Chart The Mexican peso is ground zero in the latest round of the tariff fight and yet....We explain why and look at implications that most are missing...Non-farm payrolls are due on Friday...GBP is the highest performer on weakening odds of Boris Johnson becoming....Here's what Ashraf said about GBP and Johnson 2 weeks ago...US and Canada jobs are due next...nbsp;....The most-notable aspect about the Mexican peso is how little it has fallen....On Thursday, he ramped up warnings saying “not nearly enough”....Peso dynamics suggest how minimal the expectations of Trump following through....MXN is down only 2...65% against the US dollar since Trump's surprise threat on May 30...That's a relatively small move in the emerging market space and even when....One interpretation would be that tariffs remain a low-probability event or won&....But that doesn't explain why the broad market is expressing a larger....Oil is down 12% since the announcement...Treasury yields are down 33 basis points at the front-end and more than a full....The market is thinking this isn't a Mexico-only problem...The message is that Trump is increasingly willing to turn to tariffs...On Thursday he said “the higher tariffs go, the higher the number of....rdquo;....Could markets be coming to terms with the idea that Trump really believes in....He really is Tariff Man...He said Thursday that he will decide on more Chinese tariffs in two weeks and....In the short-term, if a deal is done to avert tariffs on Mexico, watch for how....If he comes out afterwards and says 'tariffs work and that's why we got....First, the market will be looking to Friday's non-farm payrolls report...The economist consensus is +180K but the market is undoubtedly braced for....Anything better than 140K will be a sigh of relief for markets...At the same time, watch out if it's above 220K because a number that strong..

  • Intraday Market Thought: Fake US-Mexican Standoff Ends

    by Adam Button | Jun 9, 2019 23:38
    Fake US-Mexican Standoff Ends Chart How long can global equity indices in and out of the US continue to rally on&....A poor US jobs report helped deepen 3 USD trades into the green...New Zealand dollar was the top performer last week while the US dollar lagged...CFTC positioning data showed aggressive GBP selling, further diverging away from....The charts belows shows how USDX has finally converged with falling USD net....A new set of Premium trades will be issued ahead of the US Monday session...Last week we wrote about why the Mexican peso was unusually placid in the face....The details of the deal raise further questions about what's coming next...Importantly, the New York Times reports that the deal announced Friday consisted....Trump disputed that in a series of tweets but the entire saga increasingly....If that's the case, then the reasons for the fake brinksmanship are critical...They could be: 1) political theatre aimed at appeal to Trump's anti-....If the first scenario is valid, then the market should easily move on but it'....It will be interesting to see how markets react throughout Monday...A sell-the-fact reaction would highlight the worries while a rebound in the US....CFTC Commitments of Traders....Speculative net futures trader positions as of the close on Tuesday...Net short denoted by - long by....EUR -88K vs -100K prior...GBP -48K vs -32K prior...JPY -44K vs -55K prior...CHF -36K vs -35K prior...CAD -42K vs -39K prior...AUD -63K vs -66K prior...NZD -11K vs -11K prior....Dollar longs remain a crowded trade despite last week's selling...A US-China trade war and the Fed strongly hinting at a cut at next week&..

  • Intraday Market Thought: Gold Cheers Global Central Bank Raid

    by Adam Button | Jul 3, 2019 14:21
    Gold Cheers Global Central Bank Raid Chart The politicization of major central banks reached a new level to the benefit....This gave gold its biggest % gain since the Brexit referendum (more here)....The pound remains weak across the board after BoE Governor Carney highlighted....US ADP disappointed with 102K vs exp 140k, US trade deficit widened to $55 bn....We turn to the key services ISM at the top of the hour ahead of Thursday's....The events of late Tuesday in metals helped answer several subscribers'....Carney's comments echoed Powell's and Draghi's warning about trade....Gold responded with a $30 rise while the pound slumped to the lowest since June....8% retracement of the June rally in the process...In the bigger picture, the market has given back most of the Trump-Xi truce....US Treasury yields are fractionally above cycle lows, oil sank 5% and USD/....Part of that is the US announcing fresh tariffs on Europe...The new action covers a relatively small $4B in goods but it's a sign of....Meanwhile, bond yields around the pursue their collapse...Another sign of what's to come is increasing politicization of central....Europe didn't do itself any favors on that front by nominating France's....Those criticisms could make her less-inclined to push the monetary policy....It will also make the central bank an increasing lightning rod within and..

  • Intraday Market Thought: Exuberant Demands?

    by Adam Button | Aug 21, 2019 1:04
    Exuberant Demands? Chart There's a mismatch between financial markets's expectations and....The yen and Swiss franc were the top performers Tuesday while the US dollar....The FOMC minutes from the Jul 31 rate hike are due up at 7 pm London...For a reminder of what the Fed said and reasoned on that day, please read on....Both of the Premium English and Arabic videos were part of one single video....Financial markets increasingly expect fiscal and monetary policymakers to....It's a paradigm that plays out repeatedly during periods of economic....Two big tests of whether we've come that far are coming up...The first test will be this evening's release of Fed minutes from the July....These will undoubtedly skew hawkishly because they were taken before the....They will also reflect Powell's assertions that the domestic economy is....To recall what the FOMC did, Powell said and how markets reacted on Jul 31st,....The second test will offer a current take as Powell delivers his Jackson Hole....The market will demand a chance in tone from Powell's July 31 press....On Tuesday, SF Fed President Daly (not a voter at this year's FOMC) said she....At the same time, fiscal hopes are also precarious...The lack of enthusiasm for US tax cut talk underscores how difficult it will....In Italy, a snap election would risk an automatic VAT hike...The UK is a prime candidate for some fiscal help but is essentially paralyzed....Canada also faces an October vote.
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