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Results: 201 to 210 of 1,000
Results: 201 to 210 of 1,000
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Premium: Fragmented Stability in Appetite
by Ashraf Laidi | May 18, 2016 18:47Update: May 18, 2016 21:39 GMT....Extended Corrections go Separate Ways....Long GBPUSD ahead of the FOMC minutes...More details follow in today's video. -
Intraday Market Thought: G20 Rifts Open, GBP Shorts Hit Record
by Adam Button | Mar 20, 2017 19:20
Headlines from the G20 meetings in Germany showed the new US administration....The first French Presidential debate gets underway this evening, followed by....Sterling fell sharply after UK PM May announced the date of Article 50 kickoff....A new trade will be issued this evening to Premium clients...The best way to look at the G20 is a barometer...Little is ever accomplished at the Summits but the topics of discussion and....Baden-Baden was Mnuchin's first entry onto the world stage...In public comments, he was cordial and only offered small hints on what the....But behind closed doors other leaders hinted at frustration as Trump's....The Communique removed a reference to resisting protectionism and leaders were....After more than 50 days of Trump, we still have little idea on whether he'....The G20 may have been a small signal that it's Option #2...Commitments of Traders....Speculative net futures trader positions as of the close on Tuesday...Net short denoted by - long by....EUR -41K vs -58K prior...JPY -71K vs -54K prior...GBP -107K vs -81K prior...CHF -9K vs -10K prior...AUD +43K vs +51K prior...CAD +21vs +29K prior...NZD -6K vs -4K prior....The net short in cable is the most extreme since records began in 1992...It's been sold heavily from -60K in the final week of February...It's the clearest sign yet that specs are piling into shorts and looking....That's the kind of thing that often blows up in the other direction.
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Intraday Market Thought: Draghi's Five Year Itch
by Adam Button | Jul 20, 2017 12:23
Today's s ECB decision will be the five-year anniversary of Draghi's....And believe me, it will be enough,” is what Mario Draghi said on July 26,....A new tactical EUR trade idea will be issued moments before the ECB press....That July 2012 speech marked the bottom of the eurozone crisis and EUR/USD....It's known as the “whatever it takes” speech and we suggest you....Not because of its place in central banking history, but because it's an....ldquo;The euro is like a bumblebee,” he said, talking about how it....He speaks candidly and frankly...nbsp; Contrast that with 2017 Mario Draghi who painfully avoids saying....He has been in a battle against disinflation that's muzzled his....But after five years, the questions about the sustainability of the euro....Deflation is no longer a looming...Optimism is in the air...At Thursday's ECB meeting, the market and virtually every analyst is....More cautious words...More attempts to keep a lid on the euro...Subtle signals...A central bank running scared about the disinflationary damage of a 500-pip euro....What he should do is reach for another metaphor and rip off the band-aid...The wounds in Europe are healed and at some point, sending a message of renewed....That's probably more likely to come at the September ECB or at Jackson Hole....The market is focused on the details of ECB policy but the 'whatever it....If (when?) Draghi reaches for that broad brush again, he could paint another....Be prepared.
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Intraday Market Thought: Ripple's Next Move
by Ashraf Laidi | Jan 5, 2018 18:10Finally, Ripple experiences disappointing news, or not the usual bit....Here is what we should focus on next...Full analysis. -
Intraday Market Thought: Cable Highest Since Brexit
by Adam Button | Jan 14, 2018 23:37
Last week's strong finish helped the pound break some critical levels and....The euro was the top performer last week, while the Canadian dollar lagged...CFTC positioning showed the market's infatuation with the euro...On Friday, we closed the Premium USDJPY short at 111...10 from 112...45 entry for a 135-pip...The EURUSD short was stopped out, while the existing EURUSD and GBPUSD longs....nbsp;....The pound has some of its swagger back...No doubt it's benefiting from the struggles of the US dollar but it's....On Friday, a report said Dutch and Spanish finance ministers had agreed to....This is a potentially huge development as it's the first crack in the....The Germans and French had hoped to carve up the UK's financial services....It's far-from-clear which faction will rule out...At this point, Holland and Spain appear to be alone, but it's a desperately-....At the same time, the chart is increasingly positive as is shown below...With Friday's break of the September high, cable is trading at the best....There isn't much resistance standing in the way of 1...40 but watch out for UK CPI numbers Tuesday and retail sales on Friday...Note that Monday is a holiday in the US...CFTC Commitments of Traders....Speculative net futures trader positions as of the close on Tuesday...Net short denoted by - long by....EUR +145K vs +128K prior...GBP +26K vs +16K prior...JPY -126K vs -122K prior...CAD +17K vs +15K prior...CHF -22K vs -16K prior...AUD +K vs -20K prior...NZD -11K vs -17K prior....Euro longs have risen 63% in the past two weeks but it hasn't stalled the....At some point the jitters will hit, but something will need to happen to inspire....In contrast, sterling longs are still relatively low with cable breaking out..
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Intraday Market Thought: USD Stabilizes ahead of Inflation
by Adam Button | Jan 29, 2018 13:09
The US dollar is rising across the board in Monday asia trade on a combination....GBP is the worst perfomer due to resurfacing tensions in PM Theresa May&....Crucial US figures on US inflation are due up next...US core PCE is seen at 1...7% from 1...8%....nbsp;....If there was a reason for the dollar selling on Friday it was the Q4 GDP....6% compared to 3...0% expected...Consumption was solid but business investment cut 0...67 points from growth...The good news is that some of that might have been deferred ahead of the tax....That helped to mitigate the US dollar selling, at least for a time...As the day continues, USD/JPY fell lower and eventually erased Thursday's....Even with Treasury yields and stocks continuing to rise, USD/JPY fell 85 pips....20s and touched a fresh four-month low...But USDJPY bounced back by about 70 pips after the BoJ issued a clarification....It was a similar story right across the board for the US dollar as market....There continues to be talk about repatriation but it's clearly not....The way the FX market chewed through good for the US dollar last week and....It may take a big event to turn around the dollar and there are two in the week....Yellen's final FOMC meeting is on Wednesday and expectations are low for....It's also non-farm payrolls week, or what's should be called wages week...A sudden rise in average hourly earnings could cause a quick rethink in markets...The market is pricing in just a 57% chance of three hikes this year and....CFTC Commitments of Traders....Speculative net futures trader positions as of the close on Tuesday...Net short denoted by - long by....EUR +145K vs +139K prior...GBP +33K vs +26K prior...JPY -123K vs -119K prior...CAD +23K vs +18K prior...CHF -22K vs -21K prior...AUD +17K vs +10K prior...NZD -1K vs -8K prior....Euro net longs extend to record highs...The market must be torn on cable at this point...There has been a huge rally but it's tough to jump in now...At the same time, the enormous short-yen positions are getting decimated.
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Intraday Market Thought: G20 Countdown & Fed Optionality
by Adam Button | Nov 30, 2018 14:33
The Fed Minutes had something for everyone on Thursday while the euro....But all changed today amid month-end flows and a decline in Eurozone CPI to 2...0%, sending the US dollar higher against all currencies...The G20 begins on Friday in what could be a turning point for markets...A new Premium index trade was posted on Thursday evening, whose rationale is....When I asked Ashraf if it's a risk to leave the trade open into the weekend-....nbsp; The question posed in the chart below has crucial implications for....Stay tuned...Fed gets into Optionality....The FOMC Minutes usually have a little something for everyone and Thursday'....The hawks will note that almost all officials saw gradual hikes as....More importantly, the minutes revealed members are working on optionality....Said differently, they are discussing whether to change language in the policy....The US dollar didn't react to the Minutes but slipped earlier on Thursday....Oil rebounded 2% on the day on a report that Russian oil companies are willing....G20 or G2?....It's called the G20 but all eyes are on the G2 (US and CHina)....Most markets were little moved on the day as we brace for the G20 meeting and....Trump left for Buenos Aires with a mixed message...He said he was close to doing something on trade with China but that “....rdquo; He also touted the revenue from the tariffs...The meeting with Xi is on Saturday so the risk of gaps into next week is....The question is: What's priced in? There is no reasonable expectation of a....China's goal is likely to run out the clock on Trump by making the minimum....That's a good baseline for what markets are looking for as well...The problem is that Trump's team has sniffed out that strategy...The WSJ reported that there's a deal on the table to lift some Chinese....Elsewhere, German CPI was slightly below estimates...ECB Governing Council member Hernandez also said the eurozone economy was....Impressively, the euro added to gains after Wednesday bullish reversal.
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Intraday Market Thought: USD Worries Ahead of Jobs Report & Powell
by Adam Button | Jan 3, 2019 23:07
The US ISM manufacturing report confirmed worries about the impact of....The yen was the top performer while the US dollar lagged...Nonfarm payrolls are due up next but a speech from Fed chair Powell could steal....Currently, Fed funds futures show a greater chance of the Fed cutting....بين اليورو و الداو (فيديو للمشتركين)....The December ISM manufacturing index fell to 54...1 from 59...3...Economists expected a drop to 57...5 after some weak regional numbers but the fall was worse than the lowest....In particular, the new orders component cratered to 51...1 from 62...1 and commentary in the report heavily emphasized tariffs...The drop led to a wave of speculation that the Fed is going to have to do a....The implied odds are now up to 40% and Treasury yields dropped on the same....The US dollar sank as its yield advantage erodes and concerns mount....The S&P 500 fell 62 points to 2447...The dollar was particularly hard hit against the commodity currencies late in....In the past four months the market has been scrambling into US dollars on a....If there's some US-centric weakness, then watch out for a quick reversal in....Friday's non-farm payrolls report will be a part of that...The ADP data hinted at a very strong number as it showed 271K new jobs....This may simply be part of the secular shift towards seasonal hiring and a sign....In any case, the risks may be skewed to downside for the dollar...A strong non-farm payrolls would be brushed off as a lagging indicator while....The lasting dollar trade may come on Powell's comments...He's undoubtedly pivoting away from his hawkish stance and it's only a....On Thursday, Kaplan said he wants to wait through Q2 in a pause, Powell may....Also, don't forget the Canadian employment report which is due at the....The November print was +94...1K which was the strongest on record...The consensus is for a still-rosy +6K but there's a risk of a major give-..
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Intraday Market Thought: GBP Solid ahead of May's Vote
by Adam Button | Jan 16, 2019 12:59
Do all roads lead to an extension of Article 50? Or do they lead to a soft....Cable whipsawed before and after yesterday's vote, as it sank to 1...2670 only to rebound to 1...2870...Earlier today, BoE governor Carney said the pound's recovery reflects....The Brexit saga is far from over...A new trade for Premium subscribers was posted earlier this morning and sent out....A GBP trade is likely to be issued around the close of the London cash....Theresa May tested her Brexit deal in Parliament and the result was resounding....That's a massive rejection but it wasn't entirely unexpected...Betting sites had pegged 200-229 votes in favor as the most-likely outcome...What remains entirely unclear is how the UK will get out of this mess...The next step is a vote of confidence in the government, which will take place....Despite the overwhelming rejection of the Brexit bill, May is expected to win...The DUP and ERG said they will support her and Conservatives aren't likely....That said, it's not impossible...If PM May loses tonight, she would have 14 days to regain the confidence of the....Until then, May could resign as leader and be replaced...If PM wins (expected) It is widely indicated by MPs and indirect reports....Undoubtedly she will try to go back to the EU and win some kind of concession....So far the EU has said that isn't happening, but we did hear of the bloc&....Beyond that the UK remains in an epic quagmire...One option is for May to play a game of chicken with parliament as the March 29....Already there are calls to delay it but it's tough to see how that solves....Alternatively, Article 50 could be extended to delay Brexit beyond March....Meanwhile, the pound has been wildly volatile...It sold off heavily ahead of the vote then recouped the entire move...It's a stretch to ascribe any coherent narrative to either move as..
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Intraday Market Thought: Forex Brokers' Performance
by Ashraf Laidi | Feb 12, 2019 11:52
Here's the latest on the share price performance of 6 publicly traded forex....Full chart & write-up.
