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  • Intraday Market Thought: Ashraf's Webinar Tonight

    by Ashraf Laidi | Feb 24, 2015 10:40
    Ashraf's webinar on currencies and indices starts at 20:00 GMT, covering....nbsp; Sign up here ..
  • Premium: CAD Ahead of BoC

    by Ashraf Laidi | Mar 3, 2015 13:00
    Update: Mar 6, 2015 19:17 GMT....Issuing a new short on EURJPY with 2 charts as prolonged equity declines will....Update: Mar 6, 2015 13:18 GMT....Shorting EURUAUD with 2 charts showing the deteriorating monthyly charts...Sticking with USDCAD short...Update: Mar 4, 2015 14:46 GMT....We issue a short GBPCAD ahead of the Bank of Canada decision, aimed at....This trade is designed for those with longs in cable...nbsp; AUDNZD shorts and USDCAD shorts remain preferred, guided by rally in....We issue a new note reinforcing our existing shorts in USDCAD with 3 new..
  • Intraday Market Thought: Tonight's Ashraf Webinar

    by Ashraf Laidi | Apr 2, 2015 17:39
    Ashraf's webinar ahead of the key NFP report will coincide w/tonight's....nbsp; Webinar starts at 16:30 Eastern Time, 21:30 London time/BST...Register..
  • Intraday Market Thought: USD soars on quadruple data surprise

    by Ashraf Laidi | May 26, 2015 17:29
    If Friday's release of US April CPI showing core inflation at an unexpected....Full charts & analysis here.
  • Intraday Market Thought: Ashraf on BNN

    by Ashraf Laidi | Sep 23, 2015 16:22
    Ashraf's BNN interview earlier today prior to Draghi's speech and his..
  • Intraday Market Thought: Here's Ashraf in Madrid

    by Ashraf Laidi | Jul 7, 2016 15:48
    Here's Ashraf in Madrid Chart Please find below Ashraf's presentation at last month's....nbsp;..
  • Intraday Market Thought: Fed's Higher Dots Spur USD

    by Ashraf Laidi | Dec 15, 2016 0:16
    Fed's Higher Dots Spur USD Chart The Fed's 25-bp rate hike was no surprise, but the Fed's dot plot to....The US dollar soared across the board, with the DXY hitting fresh 13-year highs....35 (before pulling back to 101...76), while EURUSD dropped towards 1...0520s, and now breaking below 1...0480s...Aussie jobs report due at 0:30 am GMT...USDJPY Premium trade was closed with 240 pips...FX markets will monitor to what extent will Asian traders press on EURUSD and....0450s seen in March 2015...nbsp; ....Considering that Trump's stimulative fiscal policy will is unlikely to be....Of the questions that remain:....1...nbsp;   Will each of the Fed's 6 members calling for 3 hikes be a....2...nbsp;   Will the USD run ahead of the Fed's growth forecast,....3...nbsp;   With the Fed's 2017 GDP forecast raised to 2...1% from 2...0%, does that match the optimism awaiting Trump's spending? Can....nbsp;..
  • Intraday Market Thought: The New BOJ Challenge

    by Adam Button | Jan 30, 2017 23:42
    The New BOJ Challenge Chart The BOJ has its head above water on inflation but it's still drowning in....The yen was the top performer while the pound lagged...Japanese household spending and industrial production are the last two....There is 1 USDJPY trade already in progress...The BoJ finally got some good news last week with year-over-year inflation....The market has taken that along with the sudden improvement in sentiment and....Today's announcement – which will come at some time between 0230 GMT....If Kuroda bumps up the outlook or hints that he's going to do so then the....But it would likely be a mistake...The BOJ has been fighting deflation forever and now that they finally have a....As unnamed BOJ officials who spoke to the WSJ said in a weekend report, the....At the same time, the BOJ is wary of Trump...With a large US trade surplus and many competing industries, Japan is a likely....In addition, the market is trying to figure out administration...As we have been warning, the inability to roll out policies smoothly and....In the lead-up to the BOJ decision, watch for final signals from the data...The household spending report showed a 0...3% contraction in year-over-year spending compared to -0...9% expected and that adds a slight positive risk to the BOJ...The industrial production report is expected to show a 3...0% y/y improvement; it's due at 2350 GMT.
  • Intraday Market Thought: FX Shrugs FOMC & NFP

    by Ashraf Laidi | Feb 3, 2017 18:53
    FX Shrugs FOMC & NFP Chart Today's release of the US January jobs report was clearly positive on....8% from 4...7%) and negative on earnings (0...1% m/m vs exp 0...3% from downward revision to 0...2% from 0...4%....The figures reduced chances of a March Fed hike to 26% from 33% and propped....Barring any more USD-related statements from Trump & Co, the main USD factor....Instead of focusing on speculation about the number of this year's rate....The non-sustainability of any increase in earnings growth and the rise in....Depending on where the dollar stands 2 weeks from now, FX could well be a....A new chart note was issued to our Premium subscribers regarding the..
  • Intraday Market Thought: Dollar Slow to Warm to Hawks

    by Adam Button | Jun 20, 2017 0:29
    Dollar Slow to Warm to Hawks Chart The market is seemingly saying, “we've been burned by this before&....USD led the way on Monday while the yen lagged...The central bank calendar is busy in the day ahead...CADJPY Premium trade will be kept as is but members are free to adjust the stop...The Fed's Dudley took center stage on Monday as the market struggles to....The market is pricing in just a 21% chance of a hike in Sept and 43...5% in December...According to the NY Fed chief, the outlook is far rosier than that...He said he was “very confident” in the economic expansion....He showed none of the caution we heard from Kaplan Friday...The dollar initially climbed 15 pips on his comments but a steady bid continued....1150...Both moves were enough to erase Friday's action...The slow grind underscores the acrimonious history the market has with....The Fed has overestimated growth and inflation every year since the crisis...To start the year, the in-vogue trade was reflation but it's been a dud...So the question is to bet on recent history and or bet on the Fed getting it....The lack of conviction in both camps is going to make it a back-and-forth battle....What's especially interesting is that other central banks have....The minutes of the June RBA meeting are due at 0130 GMT and are likely to....At that meeting, Lowe brushed aside a weak Q1 and forecast better growth ahead...AUD has been a strong performer since...The minutes are part of a day with a heavy central bank focus...The PBOC's Zhou will speak 30 minutes earlier and later highlights..