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Results: 261 to 270 of 1,000
Results: 261 to 270 of 1,000
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Intraday Market Thought: USDJPY Advances on Diplomacy 101
by Adam Button | Feb 12, 2017 23:47
At its core, 21st century politics is the art of making people like you...What's now clear after Abe traveled to meet the US President is that he is....On the strength of Abe's US charm offensive, the yen opened lower to start....15...nbsp; We look at what that says about the future of politics and trading...CFTC positioning data showed a fifth week of dollar selling...All 3 USD Premium trades are currently in the green, one of which will be....For most of the past 30 years diplomacy was less-consequential...There were minor benefits when a leaders liked one another but the globalized....That's changing as Trump and populism reshuffle the deck...Abe's performance and the market reaction to start the week shows that....USD/JPY opened the week 50 pips higher...It's clear the Japanese leader had a plan ready ahead for a Trump victory...He quickly traveled to New York with the gift of a gold-plated golf club,....He then found a way to get to the front of the line in terms of official visits...The two were all smiles during the two-day meeting and Abe achieved all his....He drew US support for Japanese control of the Senkaku Islands and turned Trump&....That's a big win for Japan and surely a few other world leaders will....Theresa May tried pulled off a similar coup...The performance and Trump's warm reception of a major exporting....As Australia's Turnbull already discovered, he can be petty and quick-....In the weeks ahead, we will be watching how he interacts with leaders from China,....Commitments of Traders....Speculative net futures trader positions as of the close on Tuesday...Net short denoted by - long by....EUR -45K vs -46K prior...JPY -55K vs -58K prior...GBP -64K vs -62K prior...CHF -14K vs -17K prior...AUD +17K vs +12K prior...CAD +4...7K vs +3K prior...NZD -2K vs -1K prior....The Australian dollar is beginning to get some traction in the speculative....The RBA is firmly on the sidelines...More broadly, the moves were small on the week but continuing the 2017 theme..
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Intraday Market Thought: One-Off Hits vs Lasting Impacts
by Adam Button | Jan 31, 2020 18:10
Markets deepen their losses on traders' reluctance to hold on to gains ahead....Ashraf tells me to watch the 3202/05 support on the SPX = 55-DMA, a level....If you thought today's market fall was ugly, then how bad would it have....The market is struggling to price in what's happening in China...There was a clear effort Thursday to 'buy the fact' as the WHO declared....One main reason for the initial rally (in addition to the Amazon earnings) was....Markets care about travel, transportation and demand but known....nbsp; It's been a strong month all-round for USD except against CHF, but....nbsp; A new trade was issued yesterday evening backed by 4 charts...Wednesday's DOW30 short hit its final target at 28290 for 520 pt gain....And what about the yield curve...2 out of the main 4 measures are inverted...In the big picture, it's important right now to emphasize the difference....Right now, the market is treating coronavirus as a one-off event...So whether it curbs Chinese growth by 1 percentage point this year or 5....It's like an 'ex-items' line in an earnings report or an unscheduled....Eventually it's fixed and the business gets right back on track...The equity market is powerful for pricing past those kinds of events, and....Other events can be lasting, structural changes...One of them is an increasingly clear stance at the Federal Reserve indicating....Powell said Wednesday that they're “determined to avoid” the....That's led to a growing belief the Fed will institutionalize that kind of....The result is lower rates overall for the foreseeable future via inflation....Another example is the 5% deficit-to-GDP numbers in the US....A few years ago, we might have expect some path to a balanced budget –....Eventually the bill will need to be paid but Japan has shown you can push that....They said last week it may be more than bulls versus bears -- this might be a....The thing is, those one-off items can expose other faults...You see that time and time again in the stock market where some bad revelation....So aside from the coronavirus risk itself, there's the chance it....Path of 2-week Incubation Period....Next week should be key regarding the spread of the Corona virus...Since we know that the incubation period is 14 days and that Wuhan had been....If that is not the case, then the ominuous conclusion is that either the....The charts below (not fully revealed) make up the rationale for Thursday's....The trade is already in the green alongside all of the existing 7 Premium..
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Intraday Market Thought: Ashraf's Webinar Tonight
by Ashraf Laidi | Feb 24, 2015 10:40Ashraf's webinar on currencies and indices starts at 20:00 GMT, covering....nbsp; Sign up here .. -
Premium: CAD Ahead of BoC
by Ashraf Laidi | Mar 3, 2015 13:00Update: Mar 6, 2015 19:17 GMT....Issuing a new short on EURJPY with 2 charts as prolonged equity declines will....Update: Mar 6, 2015 13:18 GMT....Shorting EURUAUD with 2 charts showing the deteriorating monthyly charts...Sticking with USDCAD short...Update: Mar 4, 2015 14:46 GMT....We issue a short GBPCAD ahead of the Bank of Canada decision, aimed at....This trade is designed for those with longs in cable...nbsp; AUDNZD shorts and USDCAD shorts remain preferred, guided by rally in....We issue a new note reinforcing our existing shorts in USDCAD with 3 new.. -
Intraday Market Thought: Tonight's Ashraf Webinar
by Ashraf Laidi | Apr 2, 2015 17:39Ashraf's webinar ahead of the key NFP report will coincide w/tonight's....nbsp; Webinar starts at 16:30 Eastern Time, 21:30 London time/BST...Register.. -
Intraday Market Thought: USD soars on quadruple data surprise
by Ashraf Laidi | May 26, 2015 17:29If Friday's release of US April CPI showing core inflation at an unexpected....Full charts & analysis here. -
Intraday Market Thought: Ashraf on BNN
by Ashraf Laidi | Sep 23, 2015 16:22Ashraf's BNN interview earlier today prior to Draghi's speech and his.. -
Intraday Market Thought: Here's Ashraf in Madrid
by Ashraf Laidi | Jul 7, 2016 15:48
Please find below Ashraf's presentation at last month's....nbsp;..
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Intraday Market Thought: Fed's Higher Dots Spur USD
by Ashraf Laidi | Dec 15, 2016 0:16
The Fed's 25-bp rate hike was no surprise, but the Fed's dot plot to....The US dollar soared across the board, with the DXY hitting fresh 13-year highs....35 (before pulling back to 101...76), while EURUSD dropped towards 1...0520s, and now breaking below 1...0480s...Aussie jobs report due at 0:30 am GMT...USDJPY Premium trade was closed with 240 pips...FX markets will monitor to what extent will Asian traders press on EURUSD and....0450s seen in March 2015...nbsp; ....Considering that Trump's stimulative fiscal policy will is unlikely to be....Of the questions that remain:....1...nbsp; Will each of the Fed's 6 members calling for 3 hikes be a....2...nbsp; Will the USD run ahead of the Fed's growth forecast,....3...nbsp; With the Fed's 2017 GDP forecast raised to 2...1% from 2...0%, does that match the optimism awaiting Trump's spending? Can....nbsp;..
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Intraday Market Thought: The New BOJ Challenge
by Adam Button | Jan 30, 2017 23:42
The BOJ has its head above water on inflation but it's still drowning in....The yen was the top performer while the pound lagged...Japanese household spending and industrial production are the last two....There is 1 USDJPY trade already in progress...The BoJ finally got some good news last week with year-over-year inflation....The market has taken that along with the sudden improvement in sentiment and....Today's announcement – which will come at some time between 0230 GMT....If Kuroda bumps up the outlook or hints that he's going to do so then the....But it would likely be a mistake...The BOJ has been fighting deflation forever and now that they finally have a....As unnamed BOJ officials who spoke to the WSJ said in a weekend report, the....At the same time, the BOJ is wary of Trump...With a large US trade surplus and many competing industries, Japan is a likely....In addition, the market is trying to figure out administration...As we have been warning, the inability to roll out policies smoothly and....In the lead-up to the BOJ decision, watch for final signals from the data...The household spending report showed a 0...3% contraction in year-over-year spending compared to -0...9% expected and that adds a slight positive risk to the BOJ...The industrial production report is expected to show a 3...0% y/y improvement; it's due at 2350 GMT.
