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Results: 261 to 270 of 1,000
Results: 261 to 270 of 1,000
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Intraday Market Thought: Ashraf on BNN
by Ashraf Laidi | Sep 23, 2015 16:22Ashraf's BNN interview earlier today prior to Draghi's speech and his.. -
Intraday Market Thought: Here's Ashraf in Madrid
by Ashraf Laidi | Jul 7, 2016 15:48
Please find below Ashraf's presentation at last month's....nbsp;..
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Intraday Market Thought: Fed's Higher Dots Spur USD
by Ashraf Laidi | Dec 15, 2016 0:16
The Fed's 25-bp rate hike was no surprise, but the Fed's dot plot to....The US dollar soared across the board, with the DXY hitting fresh 13-year highs....35 (before pulling back to 101...76), while EURUSD dropped towards 1...0520s, and now breaking below 1...0480s...Aussie jobs report due at 0:30 am GMT...USDJPY Premium trade was closed with 240 pips...FX markets will monitor to what extent will Asian traders press on EURUSD and....0450s seen in March 2015...nbsp; ....Considering that Trump's stimulative fiscal policy will is unlikely to be....Of the questions that remain:....1...nbsp; Will each of the Fed's 6 members calling for 3 hikes be a....2...nbsp; Will the USD run ahead of the Fed's growth forecast,....3...nbsp; With the Fed's 2017 GDP forecast raised to 2...1% from 2...0%, does that match the optimism awaiting Trump's spending? Can....nbsp;..
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Intraday Market Thought: The New BOJ Challenge
by Adam Button | Jan 30, 2017 23:42
The BOJ has its head above water on inflation but it's still drowning in....The yen was the top performer while the pound lagged...Japanese household spending and industrial production are the last two....There is 1 USDJPY trade already in progress...The BoJ finally got some good news last week with year-over-year inflation....The market has taken that along with the sudden improvement in sentiment and....Today's announcement – which will come at some time between 0230 GMT....If Kuroda bumps up the outlook or hints that he's going to do so then the....But it would likely be a mistake...The BOJ has been fighting deflation forever and now that they finally have a....As unnamed BOJ officials who spoke to the WSJ said in a weekend report, the....At the same time, the BOJ is wary of Trump...With a large US trade surplus and many competing industries, Japan is a likely....In addition, the market is trying to figure out administration...As we have been warning, the inability to roll out policies smoothly and....In the lead-up to the BOJ decision, watch for final signals from the data...The household spending report showed a 0...3% contraction in year-over-year spending compared to -0...9% expected and that adds a slight positive risk to the BOJ...The industrial production report is expected to show a 3...0% y/y improvement; it's due at 2350 GMT.
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Intraday Market Thought: FX Shrugs FOMC & NFP
by Ashraf Laidi | Feb 3, 2017 18:53
Today's release of the US January jobs report was clearly positive on....8% from 4...7%) and negative on earnings (0...1% m/m vs exp 0...3% from downward revision to 0...2% from 0...4%....The figures reduced chances of a March Fed hike to 26% from 33% and propped....Barring any more USD-related statements from Trump & Co, the main USD factor....Instead of focusing on speculation about the number of this year's rate....The non-sustainability of any increase in earnings growth and the rise in....Depending on where the dollar stands 2 weeks from now, FX could well be a....A new chart note was issued to our Premium subscribers regarding the..
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Intraday Market Thought: Dollar Slow to Warm to Hawks
by Adam Button | Jun 20, 2017 0:29
The market is seemingly saying, “we've been burned by this before&....USD led the way on Monday while the yen lagged...The central bank calendar is busy in the day ahead...CADJPY Premium trade will be kept as is but members are free to adjust the stop...The Fed's Dudley took center stage on Monday as the market struggles to....The market is pricing in just a 21% chance of a hike in Sept and 43...5% in December...According to the NY Fed chief, the outlook is far rosier than that...He said he was “very confident” in the economic expansion....He showed none of the caution we heard from Kaplan Friday...The dollar initially climbed 15 pips on his comments but a steady bid continued....1150...Both moves were enough to erase Friday's action...The slow grind underscores the acrimonious history the market has with....The Fed has overestimated growth and inflation every year since the crisis...To start the year, the in-vogue trade was reflation but it's been a dud...So the question is to bet on recent history and or bet on the Fed getting it....The lack of conviction in both camps is going to make it a back-and-forth battle....What's especially interesting is that other central banks have....The minutes of the June RBA meeting are due at 0130 GMT and are likely to....At that meeting, Lowe brushed aside a weak Q1 and forecast better growth ahead...AUD has been a strong performer since...The minutes are part of a day with a heavy central bank focus...The PBOC's Zhou will speak 30 minutes earlier and later highlights..
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Intraday Market Thought: War Games
by Adam Button | Sep 25, 2017 22:00
North Korea called Trump's recent comments a "declaration of war"....The US replied that Trump's comments were not a declaration of war...The Japanese yen was the top performer, closely followed by gold,while the New....The BOJ minutes are due later...Watch out for Yellen's Tuesday speech on inflation and monetary policy....3 out of the 5 Premium Trades are in progress...The words 'North Korea' and 'war' set off algos Monday and a....USD/JPY fell as low as 111...48 from 112...15...The Swiss franc and gold also jumped on the headlines and didn't retrace...The problem with the North Korea story lately is that there is no ebb and flow...You would expect some rhetoric and then something to cool it off but neither....Instead, the series of insults and threats continues...The comments echoed especially loudly as they emerged during US market hours...North Korea's foreign minister spoke early in New York trade and that meant....Previously, the main rhetoric was limited to the weekend...Inevitably, the talk will cool down but it's tough to fade the trend at the....Politics Galore....Separately, politics are dominating markets...Merkel's disappointing election showing and the risk of fractured or....US Congress is haggling over a healthcare proposal that seems dead and....In Japan, the snap election raises new risks...Brexit is never ending...It's a veritable minefield with tape bombs landing constantly and the threat....That makes a good argument for paring risk until there is more clarity...Coming up in Asia-Pacific trading, the minutes of the July 19-20 BOJ meeting..
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Intraday Market Thought: Ranges on Lockdown Ahead of 3 Events
by Adam Button | Oct 24, 2017 9:50
A trio of pairs are waiting near key levels in anticipation of big news this....The yen was the top performer Monday while the euro lagged...In mid-day EU trading, the euro is the best performer and the NZD at the....We trun to today's PMI figures from the US after a series of neutral to....A Premium trade that has long been awaited was finally opened yesterday,....nbsp;....The election excitement in USD/JPY faded Monday and the opening gap closed...The pair touched as high as 114...10 but sagged back to 113...43 late in the day as risk aversion picked up...The reversal highlights resistance near 114...50...In the bigger picture it highlights a market that's waiting for clarity on....For confirmation, watch 2...40% in 10-year yields, which is a level we are hearing about frequently...Elsewhere, it's a similar story...The euro remains stuck in the 1...17 to 1...19 range as the hours tick towards Thursday's ECB decision...As we highlighted earlier, the market is holding a large net-long euro position....Expectations for ECB tapering range from € 20 bn to € 40 bn, with an....nbsp;....A position that's most uneasy may be CAD because of Poloz's recent....USD/CAD touched 1...2660 Monday but couldn't break the Aug 31 high or the 100-day moving....The market is divided on whether or not the Bank of Canada will hike again this....Wednesday's outlook announcement from the BoC will be key...Expect the market to tip-toe until some of those questions are answered.
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Intraday Market Thought: GBP Borders on Brexit Failure
by Ashraf Laidi | Dec 5, 2017 17:57
Northern Ireland's DUP says it will not accept “regulatory alignment&....How long will the dissent last and what it means for GBPUSD's path road to....38? Full analysis.
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Intraday Market Thought: Volatility Explodes (and Imploded)
by Adam Button | Feb 5, 2018 23:16
As insane as the market moves were during regular trading hours on Monday,....The yen was the top performer while the pound lagged...The RBA decision is due up next...The Premium video on today's wild market swings (biggest intraday....Stay tuned...هل فات قطار بيع المؤشرات؟ ما هي المؤشرات الي يجب اجتنابها؟ لماذا لم نجني الأرباح....Betting against volatility is one of the infamous trades of all-time...It's so lucrative, so perfect that it pays over and over again –....Betting against volatility was the trade that took down the famed hedge fund....Now, it's an even bigger trade...In a recent poll from BAML, fund managers cited short-volatility as the....The VIX fell below 9 in early January...As Ashraf warned last week, volatility has spiked...The VIX closed at 37 on Monday as it doubled...But that's just where the story begins...Something happened in after-hours trade to the ETF VXX...It closed at 99 after opening at 115...It's designed to trade inverse from longer-dated VIX futures...It was a sharp, painful fall but it was orderly...In after hours trading, it fell to 28...No one is quite sure what happened...There are some provisions for a liquidation in the ETF but it's not....A similar move happened in SVXY, which is a similar ETF...It's possible that some kind of fund liquidation and margin call event is....If it's liquidated, then volatility is going to continue to spike Tuesday....If so, the yen is particularly attractive until the dust settles...In the bigger picture, the RBA decision is at 0330 GMT...If they were to make a hawkish shift, it would come at a terrible time for..
