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  • Intraday Market Thought: Ashraf & Adam on the Markets

    by Ashraf Laidi | Nov 13, 2019 21:47
    Ashraf Laidi and Adam Button met in London, discussing a few topics, ranging....Full video.

  • Intraday Market Thought: Election Anxiety, Virus Reality

    by Adam Button | Sep 25, 2020 19:15
    Election Anxiety, Virus Reality Chart Trump's comments suggesting he could dispute the election have put a range....Surging cases in Europe are weighing on the area's indices (DAX tumbling 5%....Biden's presidential election polling average fell 0...2 pts from the prior day, while Trump's rose 0...1 pt over the same period...nbsp; Silver and gold have pushed back up, while Aussie and franc have lagged...Is the USD's ascent finished? Will the March trendline resistance hold....60? Will gold maintain support at the 100-DMA?  It's all in this....nbsp;....If you're going to panic, it's always better to panic early than to....A clear picture of US election night is beginning to take shape...Trump is trailing in the polls but certainly not out of the race and no one....Polls show the far more voters than in 2016 are already in the 'decided'....The nightmare scenario is that on election night Trump appears to hold a....Given his recent comments, Trump will undoubtedly dispute the election...Even if he loses on election night there's a good chance he disputes it...Along with that, it's looking increasingly likely that we will have....The question then is: How much risk and volatility can you tolerate in the lead....None of this is particularly new but with just over five weeks to go until....It's left traders – particularly equity traders –....News that brokers have cut leverage is making it an easier decision...As for FX, the recent declines in commodity currencies along with a number....Watch Ashraf's Premium video above for the latest on the intermarket....nbsp;..

  • Intraday Market Thought: Yen Tracking Yield Spreads again?

    by Ashraf Laidi | May 30, 2023 17:08
    Yen Tracking Yield Spreads again? Chart During yesterday's sleepy markets, I highlighted in this tweet the rally in....Today's bond price action did not disappoint, as the homogenous asset....This was a desperately needed development for yen bulls (particularly....nbsp;Interpret what you wish from the chart below as to which is the dependent....Who leads whom?  Shorting USDJPY has been the "pain trade" for....Hanging in there...nbsp;....nbsp;  ..

  • Intraday Market Thought: October Bitcoin

    by Ashraf Laidi | Oct 24, 2023 13:45
    October Bitcoin Chart What is it about Bitcoin and these October dates? Bitcoin soared in October....October 2021 and 2023 were related to the ETF (see the Chart below)....Whether the Blackrock's Bitcoin ETF gets approved this week or next month,....The Big Kahunas of Larry Fink's circle of friends are busy accumulating....This would be the equivalent of companies and underwriting banks....Regardless of post-announcement profit-taking, the next wave of buying will....The Inverted H&S target of $35k remains as the must-break barrier...nbsp; ..

  • Intraday Market Thought: AAOI & the Fed

    by Ashraf Laidi | Dec 11, 2025 19:22
    AAOI & the Fed Chart Before I tell you about the AAOI Trade I shared with the WhatsApp Broadcast....Wednesday's rate cut coupled with no hawkish surprises from Powell's....Markets can look beyond Oracle's disappointing earnings to eat the dish....Anytime you hear/see/smell rate cuts during an inflationary environment, the....Altcoins and Bitcoins are slow to rally, but Bitcoin miners afre flexing their....nbsp; See below the AAOI Trade I shared with the WBG, whereby we entered....Meanwhile, Reddit is up 68% since we bought it in July.

  • Intraday Market Thought: Energy Shadows Apple

    by Ashraf Laidi | Feb 18, 2020 19:23
    Energy Shadows Apple Chart As US indices post their biggest daily decline in over a week following Apple&....Over the last 6 months, Apple's rise made up 810 pts or 23% of the DOW30'....As we speak, Apple pared down its day's losses from 4% to 2% and ironically,....Utilities were the best performing sector of the day and the 2nd highest....For a defensive sector such as utilities to have a robust performance at a time....If history is any guide, Apple's selloff will last for at least 4-5 weeks...More of that is discussed in today's video Premium subscribers.

  • Intraday Market Thought: What's after the Stimulus?

    by Adam Button | Jan 15, 2021 14:40
    What's after the Stimulus? Chart Joe Biden unveiled a huge stimulus plan on Thursday and the next step will be to....USD pushes back up as yields are immobile, while the reflation trade gets....9 trillion plan is likely to be watered down by lawmakers...Below are some of the trades to fade yesterday's EURUSD bounce and re-....nbsp; Ashraf warned members to continue fading any USD pullback ahead and from....Details of the stimulus package rolled out Thursday and it will include $1400....The only thing the market might not like is $15/h minimum wage, but that was a....The price tag is $1...9T and that's less than the 'trillions' promised by Biden last....The details of the plan are important but equally important will be how....This is a tough plan to vote down for politicians on both sides but won't....If something that largely resembles this plan sails through Congress, it's a....That will push up yields and drag the dollar with it, at least initially...If it's immediately bogged down in infighting, then it will dampen the US....nbsp;..

  • Intraday Market Thought: Mystery H&S Formation

    by Ashraf Laidi | Jul 13, 2017 16:26
    Mystery H&S Formation Chart Can you guess what's this Inverted Head-&-Shoulder formation? It's....Will it push higher? What is it?..

  • Intraday Market Thought: Onto April Seasonal Winds

    by Adam Button | Mar 31, 2021 18:43
    Onto April Seasonal Winds Chart Treasury yields are off their highs but threaten to break closer to the 1...80s%....USD is taking a break ahead of the holiday but this is not stopping oil....As the calendar turns, we take a look at the April seasonal patterns...Treasury yields sent a mixed message on Tuesday as the 10-year took out the....75% only to backtrack and finish lower at 1...70%....Declines in gold and a rise in USD/JPY above 110...00 appeared to confirm the breakout in Treasuries but the bond market had other....Some of the reversal might be flows with large quarter-end rebalancing leading....At the same time, the fundamental picture continues to improve and there&....The latest bit of good data was the March consumer confident report, which....7 from 90...4; far exceeding the 96...9 consensus...Even in Europe, optimism appears to be building with the German DAX rising....It's up nearly 8% from the second week of the month...Some caution continues to be warranted around month and quarter-end but....It's the best month on the calendar for equities...It's also the second-best month for oil and will kick off with Thursday'....They're widely expected to maintain quotas for May but could pre-commit to....As you might expect with both oil and equities strong in April, it's the....2% gain over the past 20 years...One warning sign for the rising-yield story is that it's the second-worse....One area to watch closely is cable, which has risen in April in 16 of the....It's easily the best month for GBP/USD, averaging a 1...3% gain in that span.

  • Intraday Market Thought: Awaiting Evans as Taper Timeline Pulls Forward

    by Adam Button | Aug 10, 2021 20:17
    Awaiting Evans as Taper Timeline Pulls Forward Chart Recent price action in gold, bonds and the US dollar on Monday underscores a....USD lost ground today against most commodity currencies, with CAD, AUD and....US 10 year yield post their 5th straight daily gain, appearing to eyere their....40% ahead of Wednesday's US CPI...Chicago Fed president Charles Evans, a notable Fed dove speaks today...The Premium trade long EURCAD was stopped out at 1...47 and will be re-assessed later this week...nbsp;....Monday's JOLTS data underscored Friday's strong non-farm payrolls....It pegged June job openings at a record 10...07 million compared to 9...28M expected...The quits rate also climbed to 2...7% from 2...5%....The abundance of jobs available indicates that payrolls will stay strong....Also on Monday, the Fed's Bostic said another month or two of strong jobs....He also echoed Bullard in saying the taper should be faster than after the....The hawkish shift continues to reverberate in the market...It contributed to Monday's flash crash in precious metals and it's....At the same time, the declines Monday in oil and other commodities show the....China in particularly will eventually need to shift away from its strategy of....That could be a messy process...Looking ahead, the commentary regarding tapering has been centered around known....The dots and Powell's comments suggest that's still a minority but....He often aligns himself with the core of the FOMC and a shift from him would be..
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