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  • Intraday Market Thought: What's after the Stimulus?

    by Adam Button | Jan 15, 2021 14:40
    What's after the Stimulus? Chart Joe Biden unveiled a huge stimulus plan on Thursday and the next step will be to....USD pushes back up as yields are immobile, while the reflation trade gets....9 trillion plan is likely to be watered down by lawmakers...Below are some of the trades to fade yesterday's EURUSD bounce and re-....nbsp; Ashraf warned members to continue fading any USD pullback ahead and from....Details of the stimulus package rolled out Thursday and it will include $1400....The only thing the market might not like is $15/h minimum wage, but that was a....The price tag is $1...9T and that's less than the 'trillions' promised by Biden last....The details of the plan are important but equally important will be how....This is a tough plan to vote down for politicians on both sides but won't....If something that largely resembles this plan sails through Congress, it's a....That will push up yields and drag the dollar with it, at least initially...If it's immediately bogged down in infighting, then it will dampen the US....nbsp;..

  • Intraday Market Thought: Mystery H&S Formation

    by Ashraf Laidi | Jul 13, 2017 16:26
    Mystery H&S Formation Chart Can you guess what's this Inverted Head-&-Shoulder formation? It's....Will it push higher? What is it?..

  • Intraday Market Thought: Onto April Seasonal Winds

    by Adam Button | Mar 31, 2021 18:43
    Onto April Seasonal Winds Chart Treasury yields are off their highs but threaten to break closer to the 1...80s%....USD is taking a break ahead of the holiday but this is not stopping oil....As the calendar turns, we take a look at the April seasonal patterns...Treasury yields sent a mixed message on Tuesday as the 10-year took out the....75% only to backtrack and finish lower at 1...70%....Declines in gold and a rise in USD/JPY above 110...00 appeared to confirm the breakout in Treasuries but the bond market had other....Some of the reversal might be flows with large quarter-end rebalancing leading....At the same time, the fundamental picture continues to improve and there&....The latest bit of good data was the March consumer confident report, which....7 from 90...4; far exceeding the 96...9 consensus...Even in Europe, optimism appears to be building with the German DAX rising....It's up nearly 8% from the second week of the month...Some caution continues to be warranted around month and quarter-end but....It's the best month on the calendar for equities...It's also the second-best month for oil and will kick off with Thursday'....They're widely expected to maintain quotas for May but could pre-commit to....As you might expect with both oil and equities strong in April, it's the....2% gain over the past 20 years...One warning sign for the rising-yield story is that it's the second-worse....One area to watch closely is cable, which has risen in April in 16 of the....It's easily the best month for GBP/USD, averaging a 1...3% gain in that span.

  • Intraday Market Thought: Awaiting Evans as Taper Timeline Pulls Forward

    by Adam Button | Aug 10, 2021 20:17
    Awaiting Evans as Taper Timeline Pulls Forward Chart Recent price action in gold, bonds and the US dollar on Monday underscores a....USD lost ground today against most commodity currencies, with CAD, AUD and....US 10 year yield post their 5th straight daily gain, appearing to eyere their....40% ahead of Wednesday's US CPI...Chicago Fed president Charles Evans, a notable Fed dove speaks today...The Premium trade long EURCAD was stopped out at 1...47 and will be re-assessed later this week...nbsp;....Monday's JOLTS data underscored Friday's strong non-farm payrolls....It pegged June job openings at a record 10...07 million compared to 9...28M expected...The quits rate also climbed to 2...7% from 2...5%....The abundance of jobs available indicates that payrolls will stay strong....Also on Monday, the Fed's Bostic said another month or two of strong jobs....He also echoed Bullard in saying the taper should be faster than after the....The hawkish shift continues to reverberate in the market...It contributed to Monday's flash crash in precious metals and it's....At the same time, the declines Monday in oil and other commodities show the....China in particularly will eventually need to shift away from its strategy of....That could be a messy process...Looking ahead, the commentary regarding tapering has been centered around known....The dots and Powell's comments suggest that's still a minority but....He often aligns himself with the core of the FOMC and a shift from him would be..

  • Intraday Market Thought: 10 2 breaking support? منحنى العوائد

    by Ashraf Laidi | Jan 24, 2022 16:29
    Friday's post showing a possible top in US 10 year yields goes in line with....The left-hand chart shows the deterioration in the 10-2 spread,....This is usually a sign of the bond market challenging the Fed's rate....Retail traders are often advised to NOT to fight the Fed, but this does NOT....See full explanation inside the charts...nbsp;..

  • Intraday Market Thought: Another Short Long Combo in Gold مضاربة الذهب على الإتجاهين

    by Ashraf Laidi | Jan 18, 2023 17:38
    Another Short Long Combo in Gold مضاربة الذهب على الإتجاهين Chart Here is another example of taking advantage of our anticipation of the....We already demonstrated how this worked in late December here...nbsp;Yesterday, we entered a short around 1913, targetting 1900, while we....It's all good to say "gold should extend higher", or "....Since November, gold made $40-$50 pullbacks in 6 occasions, respecting a....Here it is below...nbsp;   ..

  • Intraday Market Thought: GBP Does it again عملها مرة أخرى

    by Ashraf Laidi | Sep 20, 2023 13:19
    GBP Does it again عملها مرة أخرى Chart GBP knocked off by another downside surprise in UK CPI (issued earlier this....The chart below highlights the plunge in odds of a 25-bp hike for tomorrow's....The bottom chart shows GBPUSD, but the real action was in EURGBP...The WhatsApp snapshots further below, highlight Tuesday's reminder to our....Watch that EURGBP wegde...nbsp;..

  • Intraday Market Thought: What's Close Enough for MV3?

    by Adam Button | Mar 29, 2019 14:28
    What's Close Enough for MV3? Chart Sterling is off the lows on news that as some Labour MPs said will back PM....Reports that former Brexit minister and Brexiter Dominic Raab will support May&....US personal income and inflation were both weaker than expected and CAD GDP....A new USD trade has been issued moments ago...Friday's vote won't be a full meaningful vote but it will be a....It will likely fail but if it does, the question to ask is: what's close....If she's one vote short it's not going to be the end of this round of....Is that close enough to spark some negotiations and a true MV3? It likely....At the same time, it will depend on the EU because the current extension....The other obstacle is Berkow, the speaker who may not allow a fourth vote....The balance of risks is interesting...Cable touched 1...30 now and if it all falls apart the downside emerges in the 1...25-1...28 range – so call it 5 cents...But first, let's deal with the 200-DMA support near 1...2970...nbsp; The upside upwards of 1...40 – call it 10 cents...There's a big skew there but what are the odds she can get it through?....Offering to resign is the final card she had to play and it looks like it's....However the progression of how we get higher or lower is also interesting...If there is a positive breakthough -- like the DUP supporting her deal -- the....Whereas a negative development is less likely to come on a single headline so..

  • Intraday Market Thought: FX Priorities

    by Adam Button | Jan 24, 2021 15:00
    FX Priorities Chart Let's recap the week's gentle rumblings on FX from policy makers,....nbsp; US Treasury Secretary nominee Janet Yellen said the US would adhere to....Never mind that record-breaking QE is outright manipulation of the bond market....On Thursday, ECB's Lagarde was silent on the euro's direction,....On Friday, USD reversed the week's course to rebound against all major....So what do  we make of the inv H&S in DXY? Below is Friday's....nbsp;....All currencies ended the week higher against the US dollar, but on Friday,....nbsp;....The ECB has been clear that it doesn't want a stronger euro, especially with....This week's ECB decision will be all about the levers it can pull to keep....EUR/USD has risen to 1...21 from 1...06 at the pandemic low and it's near a two-year high...More worrisome for the ECB is that if it rises another 400 pips, it will be at....The US has the ability to easily monetize debt but with eurozone deficit....That leaves policymakers in the bloc with few options in the face of FX....CNH Indication...China has shown it can be bullied by the US on the currency but with a....We have already strarted to see USD/CNH pushing further, while DXY bounced off....nbsp; Ashraf highlighted last week that USDCNH is increasingly serving as parth....nbsp;....Other countries will also have to continue to navigate US currency policy...Switzerland was named a currency manipulator in the latest Treasury....With the presidential inauguration out of the way, we keep an open mind as the....The past four years has certainly taught everyone to be ready for anything.

  • Intraday Market Thought: Inflation Alert, NFP Rethink, GBP Resists

    by Adam Button | May 11, 2021 19:40
    Inflation Alert, NFP Rethink, GBP Resists Chart The Tech wreck made way for the DOW to join the selloff, after reusrging....But yesterday's pro-cyclicals rotation died down, dragging DOW30 and....5% and 0...9% respectively, while USD lost most of its ground gained earlier...Metals are also making a bounce, ahead of Wednesday's crucial US CPI....nbsp; The big miss in non-farm payrolls on Friday led to some soul searching in....Sterling surged on Monday after a middling mandate for Scottish....Subscribers made +300 pips in GBPUSD (see our video for the how and whys....nbsp;....Whether a higher than expectec CPI helps the USD, will depend on the follow-up....But what's many are ignoring is that rising supply-driven inflation does not....nbsp;Do you think inflation will remain muted in Europe? ....Was the soft jobs report a game-changer? The trade on Friday was that it meant....On Monday though, the mood was more that it was a one-off report and that the....That led to a big unwind in the stock and yield moves...The US dollar though hardly bounced...A particularly large move came in cable, which jumped more than 150 pips to the....Some of that was technical as a series of March/April highs gave way but the....Today's Queen's speech also helped boost GBP via improved political....nbsp; ....The SNP and pro-indepenced Greens together got enough votes for a majority....Combine that with ongoing UK vaccinations and reopenings and there....4242 and potentially to back to 2017 levels...CFTC Commitments of Traders....Speculative net futures trader positions as of the close on Tuesday...Net short denoted by - long by....EUR +85K vs +81K prior...GBP +20K vs +29 prior...JPY -41K vs -49K prior...CHF 0K vs -1K prior...CAD +26K vs +16K prior...AUD +1K vs -1K prior...NZD +9K vs +7K prior...Specs are beginning to buy into the Canadian dollar rally and that's no....Friday's Canadian employment report was on the soft side but lockdown....The report prompted Ashraf to trigger longs in GBPCAD on Friday, as stated..
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