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  • Intraday Market Thought: Central Bankers saw the Boogeyman

    by Adam Button | Sep 28, 2018 12:31
    Central Bankers saw the Boogeyman Chart A main theme in markets in 2018 has been fear of a trade war but now that heavy....Eurozone flash CPI for September remained at 2...1% with core CPI slipping to 0...9% y/y...US August core PCE is up next, expected to remain unchanged at 2...0%....nbsp; Canada July GDP is also due next...A new short in a primary index has been issued...A genuine trade war isn't something developed markets have encountered in at....The concerns are no-doubt real and the situation is worsening...That said, it hasn't been as bad as feared...The tariff boogeyman has crawled out of the shadows and economic activity hasn&....Increasingly, global central bankers are brushing aside the concerns and....That's likely to continue and is a tradeable theme for the remainder of the....Here's Ashraf''s detailed look at performance of the USD in the....BoC-NAFTA Axis....CAD is recovering from NAFTA-related worries after Bank of Canada's Poloz....The BoC-NAFTA axis continues to impact CAD with the former imposing a slower....Eventually, markets and central bankers may be hit by a jolt of fear but for now,....As for trade deals, there's no doubt that the odds of a NAFTA deal declined....But how much? Perhaps to 90% from 95%....The next main short-term risk is the release of the text of the deal Friday...That might include another round of public comments from Trump and/or....CAD will shall await Jul GDP and US core PCE data as it awaits along the 1...30 support...Even with that, the market is comfortable that Congress, corporations,....In the UK, the knives are out once again for Theresa May with Boris Johnson....Negotiations in the next six weeks are going to be brutal as she fights off..

  • Intraday Market Thought: How Bad Can it Get for Italy?

    by Adam Button | Oct 19, 2018 13:55
    How Bad Can it Get for Italy? Chart USD is on the downside alongside JPY as global indices rally on willingness from....This followed Thursday's drubbing as Italian 10-year yields blew out again....The saga adds to the cynicism in broad markets that sparked a sharp risk-off....Disappointed figures from US existing home saless, Canada CPI and retail sales....The CAD trade was stopped out and a new CAD Premium trade has just been issued....A new intraday index trade will also be issued...The spread between borrowing costs for 10 years in Italy and Germany widened to....The move came after the EU delivered a letter to Italian officials that draw a....It said the budget had a 'significant deviation' from the....They said planned spending next year increased 2...7% while the max allowed under EU rules is 0...1%....The ball now is in Rome's court as it an explanation is expected from....But first, Italy's 2 coalition parties have to resolve an internal spat....The risks are high no matter which side backs down...If the EU chooses to dig in and wins the battle, it may further alienate and....If Italy's government wins, which is what most expect, then it will further....Next Friday ratings agencies are also scheduled for an update on Italy...That will be a major risk event...Conte touched on it Thursday saying he thinks a downgrade can be avoided...The market increasingly thinks it's inevitable, with the risk of two-notch....The middle ground is narrow...The government may opt to tighten up slightly in a compromise but that's....That leaves a narrow path for any kind of success in Italy and that will be a....Friday will be a battle for EURUSD bulls attempting to save the 1...15 barrier...The turmoil gave a lift to the yen in a classic risk-off trade...GBP/JPY was particularly hard hit despite upbeat words from both sides of....While a deal between May and EU appears to be making progress, a deal between..

  • Intraday Market Thought: May Digs in on Brexit

    by Adam Button | Jan 14, 2019 14:21
    May Digs in on Brexit Chart Theresa May heads to staunchly pro-Brexit territory on Monday in a promise....The yen and Swiss franc are the strongest since the start of Asia's....The US government shutdown extended to a record 22 days on Monday and CFTC FX....Two Premium trades were issued on Friday in the cryptospace with charts &....The pound hangs in the balance with parliamentarians set to vote on Brexit....The odds of a win for Theresa May are remote...She's failed to find a middle ground that can gain enough support with her....She spoke in Stoke-on-Trent Monday in a last ditch effort to rally support,....A weekend report said some lawmakers may try to seize control of the legislative....Earlier today, the EU releaseed a letter reiterating that the Irish border....Some Brexit Vote Scenarios....A defeat of Tuesday's vote by a significant margin (more than 70-80....nbsp; A closer result, especially within 30-40 votes, could be GBP-positive as....Others may need some smaller concessions...Traders should also be aware that the 3 likely consequences of rejection of....1) Canada-style agreement; UK negotiates trade with all EU members similar to....2) 2nd referendum -- Also known as the people's vote -- is the ideal....There's currently backing of 150 MPs for a 2nd referendum from all 4 main....3) Norway Plus agrmt -- Britain stays in customs union or single market -- but....How the EU will handle the backstop issue in order to appease the DUP shall..

  • Intraday Market Thought: China Deal Optimism Props Risk Trades

    by Adam Button | Jan 18, 2019 14:09
    China Deal Optimism Props Risk Trades Chart Market ebullience intensifies after a brief pause on reports that US Treasury....The reports were later denied but indices remain firmly in the green...The main risk to the prolonged rebound remains a sharper slowdown in China than....On Monday, Beijing will release key economic data and that argues for....On the wires just now, NY Fed president Williams stuck to somewhat dovish....Fed funds rate probabilities for a 2019 Fed hike are at 21% vs 7% for a rate cut....nbsp; Wednesday's GBPUSD long for Premium subscribers hit the final target....2970 for 140 pips while Wednesday's Premium Dow30 long from 24080 is....US industrial production rose 0...3% in December (vs exp 0...2%) after a downwards revised  0...4% in Nov...US markets close on Monday for Martin Luther King Holiday...The underlying ebb and flow of the market at the moment is the balancing....That was crystalized at the start of the week when dismal trade numbers first....Recall Wednesday's announcement from China's central bank to boost the....The same risks are in play in the week ahead...On Monday (late Sunday in North America), China will release data on retail....Chances are, those numbers will continue the streak of poor data...Also note that Monday is the Martin Luther King Jr...holiday so US traders won't return til Tuesday...There are other risks into the weekend as well...China is expected to lower its growth target this year to 6...0-6...5% but even at the low end of that range, the target of doubling the economy in....It's a staggering achievement...Onto Trump....Is Trump done?  Key members of his cabinet have all quit...The people around him have abandoned him...Will he still be the Republican candidate in 2020?  The only reason....His best bet for survival is to re-boost the stock market by making a deal with....Ashraf tells me that failure to do so in the next six weeks will get us back to....More broadly, it's over for him and it's just a question of how messy it....If this shutdown is any indication, it will be ugly but don't underestimate....If Trump clinches a deal with China he could claim victory for that and blame....That's a temporary upside risk for markets.

  • Intraday Market Thought: Ashraf at New York Traders' Expo

    by Ashraf Laidi | Feb 7, 2019 16:32
    My participation at the New York Traders' Expo is long overdue...So I'm delighted to inform you that I'll be a featured speaker at this....It's one of the longest running expos on trading around and a great....I strongly encourage you to reserve your free seat, and join me at the ultimate....Full Program.

  • Intraday Market Thought: Equities Push into Earnings

    by Adam Button | Apr 15, 2019 13:10
    Equities Push into Earnings Chart It's been one of the best starts to a year ever for stock markets but it'....The week ahead is all about the start of US earnings season, with important data....GBP currently leads currencies since the stat of a thinly traded Asian ession...The Video for Premium susbcribers is posted below, flagging signals as to....nbsp;....The temptation is to chalk up the rally in equities this year to better growth....Growth almost everywhere has disappointed...Instead, this is a rally entirely predicated on the Fed going to the....No surprise that on Friday, indices in most developed world markets rallied to....69 trillion yuan compared to 1...2 trillion expected...Markets are increasingly betting on two things: 1) An end to the US-China trade....The looming problem is that their actions will help in Q3 or Q4, but we&....Gauging Earnings Season....There is considerable risk for disappointment for revenues and earnings,....The week ahead is focused on financials, which do not reflect an accurate view....But there could be clues from Netflix, Pepsi, Alcoa and Las Vegas Sands this....Make sure to distinguish beteween forecasts for revenues, profits and....And when you read the term "earnings recession", that means....One spot we've been following closely is signaling a positive outcome...On Friday, AUD/JPY rose to the highest levels of the year...It had been trading in a tight, well-defined 3% range since the flash crash....The rally on Friday argues that central banks may have done enough to keep risk....On the same token, check out Ashraf's take on the topic in Friday's IMT....CFTC Commitments of Traders....Speculative net futures trader positions as of last Tuesday's close...Net short denoted by - long by....This week's report was delayed because of the US holiday...EUR -102K vs -99K prior...GBP -7K vs -10K prior...JPY -72K vs -63K prior...CHF -28K vs -26K prior...CAD -43K vs -44K prior...AUD -54K vs -56K prior...NZD -1K vs 0K prior....The euro rallied last week despite Draghi's decidedly dovish press....The net short is the largest since late-2016 and the pair is basing from a....1180...If EUR/USD can keep the momentum going, shorts will start to get nervous.

  • Intraday Market Thought: Payrolls, Earnings & 8 Speakers

    by Adam Button | May 3, 2019 12:33
    US payrolls and earnings (wages) figures are due today, but also watch the....A jump in US factory orders on Thursday clouds the picture for the sector just....US payrolls are due at 13:30 BST/London and US services ISM is due at 15:00 BSt/....A Premium Insight trade was issued yesterday...Yesterday, US factory orders rose 1...9% in March compared to 1...5% while the ex-transport measure was up 0...8% versus the +0...3% consensus...In addition, revisions and core durable goods orders were also higher...The report paints a solid picture for manufacturing but it strongly contrasts....Both have forward-looking elements but the mixed picture adds to confusion....The report helped to keep a bid under the US dollar but overall shifts were....One notable move was in oil, which fell 4% to drop Brent briefly back below $70...The trade is tense at the moment with Iran oil sanctions going into effect....US inventories have swelled but the end of April is typically the annual peak...Next up is the April non-farm payrolls report at 1230 GMT...The consensus is for a 190K reading, just below the 196K print in March...Watch out for a boost from goverment workers as US census hires ahead of the....The ADP number earlier in the week was 275K so there probably an upward bias....Avg Earnings are exp 3...3% y/y from 3...2% y/y and on a month/to/month basis up 0...3% from 0...1%....Also watch the services ISM, exp 57 from  56...1...Other Fed Speakers' Take....Today is the first opportunity for other Fed members to voice their opinion on....These include Chicago Fed's Evans at 15:15 BST, Fed Vice Chair Clarida at 16:....There isn't a strong focus on this particular report on either jobs growth....nbsp; The Fed pulled back the odds of a rate cut on Wednesday and those will..

  • Intraday Market Thought: Fed Exits Cautiously, BoE Cautious on Brexit

    by Adam Button | Aug 1, 2019 11:35
    Fed Exits Cautiously, BoE Cautious on Brexit Chart The US dollar jumped after Powell exited the Fed's tightening cycle and....The dollar was the top performer while the euro lagged, sending the pair to a....The Bank of England decision is next and expect it to issue the downward GDP....The EURUSD Premium trade was stopped out, while the DOW30 short hit its final....Ashraf will publish a video for Premium clients ahead of Friday's jobs....More on the Fed & this month's Jackson Hole conference below...The Fed statement was largely unchanged but pointed to global growth and....Rosengren and George, however, dissented in a sign of disunity on the strategy...The larger market moves came in the press conference when Powell said the....That sent the dollar to fresh highs and cut down the stock market, which sending....The market was pricing in a 78% chance of a second cut at the September meeting....It could fall further in the days ahead if other Fed members dial back easing....Also, start to watch the US yield curve again...Renewed inversion (as short yields exceed longer term yields) is likely to....nbsp;....If so, the dollar will continue its rally...EUR/USD broke through 1...11 and the ninth consecutive decline in the Australian dollar...AUD/USD came within a fraction of the 0...6956 June low and that's a key spot to watch in the day ahead...Onto Jackson Hole....In the day ahead, we will probably get statements from Rosengren and George on....Other Fed officials may also appear on TV and print to manage the message...Watch for comments from Fed doves in particular, if they also hint at a wait-....nbsp; The Fed's statement was largely expected, but Powell's press....The other focus in the day ahead will be the Bank of England...The BOE has a conditional hiking bias based on a smooth Brexit (or some other....The consensus is that it will be maintained but there may be hints of a....Even in the case of a soft Brexit, it's tough for the BOE to justify a hike....At the same time, they might be hesitant to offer anything that would further..

  • Intraday Market Thought: Riding the Inverted H&S into the Weekend

    by Ashraf Laidi | Aug 30, 2019 14:53
    Riding the Inverted H&S into the Weekend Chart Some subscribers complained that Tuesday's Premium trade in the DAX30 was....The trade is currently about +300-pts in the green...We'll risk sticking to the trade into the weekend, while cautioning in....As in all Premium trades, technical and fundamental rationale is laid out below..

  • Intraday Market Thought: GBP up 300 pips on Johnson Triple Blow

    by Adam Button | Sep 4, 2019 22:29
    USD extends broad selloff, US manufacturing deepens woes alongside....The UK Prime Minister Johnson denied in a pair of votes that blocked a no-deal....US ADP on private sector jobds and services ISM are due on Thursday...Below is the week's Premium video detailing the importance of 3 years in....1) Boris Johnson's was damaged yesterday as the Conservatives....Today: (2) Johnson was denied by a motion blocking a no-deal passed by....Over the past two days, Cable shot up to 1...2255 from Tuesday's 1...1958 low...The combination of eording chance of a no-deal Brexit with broadening USD....An election is inevitable, a no-confidence on Boris Johnson isn't....On Tuesday, US ISM manufacturing index underscored that global manufacturing....The US index fell to 49...1 compared to the 51...2 estimate...It has been a dramatic slide from a cycle high of 61 last August and....The index faces more trouble ahead with the measure of new orders falling to the....The ECB continues to simmer in the background with Villeroy adding to the....A report suggested the ECB is preparing a package of a rate cut, longer guidance....The central bank is now in its quiet period...The Bank of Canada held rates at 1...75% but the statement wasn't as dovish as expected and the loonie jumped...The main guidance of the statement continues to say that the current level....Schembri will offer further clarity in the day ahead but the commentary....Thursday features a heavy focus on US data with ADP, factory orders and the..
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