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  • Intraday Market Thought: Payrolls, Earnings & 8 Speakers

    by Adam Button | May 3, 2019 12:33
    US payrolls and earnings (wages) figures are due today, but also watch the....A jump in US factory orders on Thursday clouds the picture for the sector just....US payrolls are due at 13:30 BST/London and US services ISM is due at 15:00 BSt/....A Premium Insight trade was issued yesterday...Yesterday, US factory orders rose 1...9% in March compared to 1...5% while the ex-transport measure was up 0...8% versus the +0...3% consensus...In addition, revisions and core durable goods orders were also higher...The report paints a solid picture for manufacturing but it strongly contrasts....Both have forward-looking elements but the mixed picture adds to confusion....The report helped to keep a bid under the US dollar but overall shifts were....One notable move was in oil, which fell 4% to drop Brent briefly back below $70...The trade is tense at the moment with Iran oil sanctions going into effect....US inventories have swelled but the end of April is typically the annual peak...Next up is the April non-farm payrolls report at 1230 GMT...The consensus is for a 190K reading, just below the 196K print in March...Watch out for a boost from goverment workers as US census hires ahead of the....The ADP number earlier in the week was 275K so there probably an upward bias....Avg Earnings are exp 3...3% y/y from 3...2% y/y and on a month/to/month basis up 0...3% from 0...1%....Also watch the services ISM, exp 57 from  56...1...Other Fed Speakers' Take....Today is the first opportunity for other Fed members to voice their opinion on....These include Chicago Fed's Evans at 15:15 BST, Fed Vice Chair Clarida at 16:....There isn't a strong focus on this particular report on either jobs growth....nbsp; The Fed pulled back the odds of a rate cut on Wednesday and those will..

  • Intraday Market Thought: Fed Exits Cautiously, BoE Cautious on Brexit

    by Adam Button | Aug 1, 2019 11:35
    Fed Exits Cautiously, BoE Cautious on Brexit Chart The US dollar jumped after Powell exited the Fed's tightening cycle and....The dollar was the top performer while the euro lagged, sending the pair to a....The Bank of England decision is next and expect it to issue the downward GDP....The EURUSD Premium trade was stopped out, while the DOW30 short hit its final....Ashraf will publish a video for Premium clients ahead of Friday's jobs....More on the Fed & this month's Jackson Hole conference below...The Fed statement was largely unchanged but pointed to global growth and....Rosengren and George, however, dissented in a sign of disunity on the strategy...The larger market moves came in the press conference when Powell said the....That sent the dollar to fresh highs and cut down the stock market, which sending....The market was pricing in a 78% chance of a second cut at the September meeting....It could fall further in the days ahead if other Fed members dial back easing....Also, start to watch the US yield curve again...Renewed inversion (as short yields exceed longer term yields) is likely to....nbsp;....If so, the dollar will continue its rally...EUR/USD broke through 1...11 and the ninth consecutive decline in the Australian dollar...AUD/USD came within a fraction of the 0...6956 June low and that's a key spot to watch in the day ahead...Onto Jackson Hole....In the day ahead, we will probably get statements from Rosengren and George on....Other Fed officials may also appear on TV and print to manage the message...Watch for comments from Fed doves in particular, if they also hint at a wait-....nbsp; The Fed's statement was largely expected, but Powell's press....The other focus in the day ahead will be the Bank of England...The BOE has a conditional hiking bias based on a smooth Brexit (or some other....The consensus is that it will be maintained but there may be hints of a....Even in the case of a soft Brexit, it's tough for the BOE to justify a hike....At the same time, they might be hesitant to offer anything that would further..

  • Intraday Market Thought: Riding the Inverted H&S into the Weekend

    by Ashraf Laidi | Aug 30, 2019 14:53
    Riding the Inverted H&S into the Weekend Chart Some subscribers complained that Tuesday's Premium trade in the DAX30 was....The trade is currently about +300-pts in the green...We'll risk sticking to the trade into the weekend, while cautioning in....As in all Premium trades, technical and fundamental rationale is laid out below..

  • Intraday Market Thought: GBP up 300 pips on Johnson Triple Blow

    by Adam Button | Sep 4, 2019 22:29
    USD extends broad selloff, US manufacturing deepens woes alongside....The UK Prime Minister Johnson denied in a pair of votes that blocked a no-deal....US ADP on private sector jobds and services ISM are due on Thursday...Below is the week's Premium video detailing the importance of 3 years in....1) Boris Johnson's was damaged yesterday as the Conservatives....Today: (2) Johnson was denied by a motion blocking a no-deal passed by....Over the past two days, Cable shot up to 1...2255 from Tuesday's 1...1958 low...The combination of eording chance of a no-deal Brexit with broadening USD....An election is inevitable, a no-confidence on Boris Johnson isn't....On Tuesday, US ISM manufacturing index underscored that global manufacturing....The US index fell to 49...1 compared to the 51...2 estimate...It has been a dramatic slide from a cycle high of 61 last August and....The index faces more trouble ahead with the measure of new orders falling to the....The ECB continues to simmer in the background with Villeroy adding to the....A report suggested the ECB is preparing a package of a rate cut, longer guidance....The central bank is now in its quiet period...The Bank of Canada held rates at 1...75% but the statement wasn't as dovish as expected and the loonie jumped...The main guidance of the statement continues to say that the current level....Schembri will offer further clarity in the day ahead but the commentary....Thursday features a heavy focus on US data with ADP, factory orders and the..

  • Intraday Market Thought: Bond Binge Busts

    by Adam Button | Sep 11, 2019 12:29
    Bond Binge Busts Chart Rising Treasury yields are telling a story of a market that's rethinking....The US 10-year yield up 10% so far on the week, the biggest weekly percentage....4 weeks ago, yields posted the biggest weekly decline since 2012...Euro is the weakest currency ahead of tomorrow's ECB decisions while gold....The long Premium trade in DAX30 was closed with a 620-pt gain...A Treasury auction on Wednesdays will be a test of real demand for bonds...This week's Premium Video (posted for subscribers below) focus on the....The trend of rising Treasury yields gathered momentum on Wednesday with....That brings the cumulative total to 10-year yields since the lows of last week....74%....The uniformity of the move across the curve suggests it's less about near-....The market continues to completely price in a Sept 18 FOMC cut with another 25....Yet, the tone around US-China talks continues to improve...The South China Morning Post outlined more details of talks and revealed that....That's been floated before but it was coupled with talk on a broader offer....Few in markets believe any deal will last but Trump is difficult to handicap....That brings us back to bonds...The swan dive in yields began when Trump announced tariffs at the start of....The 10-year is now nearing the 50% retracement of that move at 1...76%....That's a first level to watch but a bigger one may be the 61...8% level at 1...84%....If that breaks, it would be a sign of a broader rethink rather than a simple....Yen traders are watching rates closely...USDJPY is on the cusp of testing its 100-DMA for the first time since May near......

  • Intraday Market Thought: What’s Priced in for the ECB?

    by Adam Button | Sep 12, 2019 12:33
    We have been getting questions about exactly what's priced in for the ECB....The euro dipped back to 1...1000 on Wednesday ahead of the decision and eurozone bond yields ticked lower...Along with the ECB decision also comes a key US CPI report...A new Premium trade has just been issued with 2 supporting charts & detailed....nbsp;....There are five main moving parts to the ECB decision and that's what makes....Let's break them down one-by-one...1) Deposit rate....The headlines from the decision will be what happened to deposit rate, which is....40%....The consensus is a 0...10% cut to -0...50% but it's far from assured...The OIS market is pricing in 14 bps of easing, which equates to a 40% chance of....2) QE....This is a major wild card...The consensus of economists is for a new 30 billion per month bond buying....However as series of speakers and 'sources' reports – including....If that's the case, it might be signaled for October but the market....3) Forward guidance....The current guidance from the ECB is to keep rates at or below current levels at....The consensus is for something like 'through mid-2020' but policymakers....4) Tiering....Eurozone banks are struggling and one of the reasons why is that negative....Tiering (expempting banks with particular reserves from negative rates)....On Wednesday, Dutch parliament passed a motion against tiering in a sign of how....Economists expect some help for banks here but it's a wild card...5) Verbal guidance....Even with all the moving mechanical parts, the press conference may be what....Both the market and the central bank are pivoting towards a reliance on fiscal....Draghi has emphasized this point since he started as President but we're....Draghi may choose this moment to draw a line in the sand and say to governments....With all these considerations, handicapping the euro is difficult...Ultimately, we think right now that growth matters far more than the level....The framework for viewing the decision may ultimately come down to how much..

  • Intraday Market Thought: Biggest GBP Jump in 2 years

    by Adam Button | Oct 11, 2019 15:06
    Biggest GBP Jump in 2 years Chart Sterling made its biggest weekly percentage gain vs USD in over 2 years....The Premium long trade in GBPUSD hit its final target for 260-pip gain...A solid Canadian jobs report dragged USDCAD lower by nearly 80 pips to 1...32...Markets now await comments from Trump on his meeting with China's vice....The other story is that of USDX selloff as the index broke its 55-DMA...GBP extended its rally this morning when UK Brexit minister Stephen Barclay told....More developments are awaited ahead of next week's EU summit as well as the....GBP bulls are now reasoning that Boris Johnson had little choice (either to ask....GBP is now the best G10 currency performer since the start of Q3....Onto US-China Talks....The market is pricing in a US-China trade deal that includes no new tariffs....That's nothing like the comprehensive deal many were hoping for....The Canadian jobs report is due on Friday but trade headlines will continue....A 'trade deal' is the wrong term to describe what appears to be shaping....This is more of a ceasefire that includes the bare minimum for both sides....This wasn't what anyone was hoping for but markets are signaling it's....Why? Mainly because it appears the US is backing down...If the truce comes together (and that's still far from certain at this....They have been the aggressor in this fight and if Trump has had enough for....In addition, this type of deal leaves enough uncertainty intact to keep the....Or at least the market thinks it does...We will be watching for any signals to the contrary ahead of the Oct 19....Looking further out, the deterioration in the US-China relationship is dire...The 'uncertainty' that the Fed has been lamenting on trade is now a....It's entirely clear that a decoupling is underway and the only....There are also important questions outside of the two countries...Those who can continue to trade openly with both sides stand to benefit, even..

  • Intraday Market Thought: NZD, Impeachment Show Sign of Life

    by Adam Button | Nov 26, 2019 13:26
    NZD, Impeachment Show Sign of Life Chart A strong Q3 retail sales report underpinned the RBNZ's shift to the....The pound gives up half of Monday's gains as various polls show a slight....US new home sales rose in Oct showing the best 2 months in over 12 years,....US-China trade talks took a backseat to developments in the Trump impeachment....ماذا حدث لإشارة بيع السوق؟ (فيديو المشتركين)....New Zealand Q3 retail sales rose 1...6% excluding inflation, a far faster pace than the 0...5% climb expected...In the bigger picture, the news underpins the modest rally in the kiwi....62...It's still early days, but the RBNZ has signaled that it's done cutting....Moreover, the risk-reward is tilted to the upside...There's even the possibility of an inverse H&S on NZDUZD...In the bigger macro picture, the market continues to wait on US-China news...Risk trades rallied, yen crosses climbed and US stocks hit fresh records Monday....Monday's rally in the pound came after the release of the Conservative....A poll Monday showed the Tory lead over Labour down to +7...It led to a wobble in the pound and could be a one-off but if a second or..

  • Intraday Market Thought: Geopolitics & Manufacturing Seasonals

    by Adam Button | Jan 3, 2020 17:03
    Geopolitics & Manufacturing Seasonals Chart Most global indices are off their lows of the day, but the dangers surrounding....Adding to it today's release of the worst US manufacturing ISM reading in....Trump's ordering of the US killing of Iran's most powerful general will....The 3 cent spike in oil prices, along with the $20 jump in gold, 4% decline in....nbsp; Below is Ashraf's 1st video of the year for Premium subscribers,....But let's not forget what happened earlier in the week...China cut rates Thursday in a further boost to global growth but PMI readings....We continue to keep a close watch on global manufacturing...The global economy slowed in mid-2019 on the combination of higher interest....Since then the Fed and others have lowered rates and now we have a....Leading vs Lagging...With regards to US manufacturing, Ashraf reminds us that the latest....Some things like real estate have quickly turned around and stock markets....A few manufacturing surveys were out Thursday and the theme was a continued....A good spot to watch is the JPMorgan global PMI because it aggregates all the....It started 2018 at 54 then slowly sank to 49...3 into mid-2019...The latest number was out today at 50...1, which is barely expanding and lower than the previous month...If the theme this year is strengthening global growth then it has to show up in....The market probably has 2-3 months of patience as the trade deal, Brexit and....Hand-in-hand with that goes China...The PBOC cut the RRR by 50 basis points Wednesday and we expect to see a cut in....If China continues to stimulate then commodity currencies and commodities....In terms of seasonals, there are some strong tendencies but lately the trends....The traditional January effect is for stock market strength but that hasn'....What's more true is that risk trades do well in the first week of the month....In FX, it's the second weakest month for AUD, CAD and NZD but the past three....One of the strongest seasonal patterns anywhere is gold in January...It's by far the best month...Oil, meanwhile, tends to soften in January and then rally from Feb through..

  • Intraday Market Thought: Western Markets Absorb China's Plunge

    by Adam Button | Feb 3, 2020 15:44
    Western Markets Absorb China's Plunge Chart Chinese markets did their part in returning from a long holiday with a....But markets in Europe and the US resumed their rally, after SPX held up above....China's decisiom to cit rates on 14-Day and 7 day reverse repos did help....Sterling lost all of its post-BoE gains on prolonged conflicting statements from....Coronavirus cases in China have increased to 17,205 and the first death....The city of Wenzhou (pop: 9m) became the first outside of Hubei to be locked....It's an important port city in the Zhejiang province that's south of....Only one resident per household will be allowed to leave the residence every two....Economically, oil market watchers are estimating that Chinese demand is down....42 at the open...The bigger spotlight was on Chinese equities, which fell 8% despite Beijing&....The rates on 7 and 14-day reverse repos were also cut by 10 basis points along....Here's Ashraf's warning below to the shorts late Friday after the short....China has many levers to pull to stimulate demand but no amount of....Early-week sentiment outside of China is modestly positive, perhaps on signs....Further curbs and quarantines could help it from turning into a pandemic...What's worrisome is that, there are more reports of low-intensity cases...On the surface that sounds like good news but researchers highlight that it....Expect coronavirus news to dominate the week ahead with more of the kinds of....CFTC Commitments of Traders....Speculative net futures trader positions as of the close on Tuesday...Net short denoted by - long by....EUR -59K vs -47K prior...GBP +18K vs +25K prior...JPY -36K vs -45K prior...CHF +3...5K vs +1...5 prior...CAD +35K vs +38K prior...AUD -27K vs -19K prior...NZD +2...0K vs +1...8K prior....Expect a continued unwind in yen shorts if the coronavirus threat remains high.
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