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Results: 331 to 340 of 1,000
Results: 331 to 340 of 1,000
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Intraday Market Thought: Trading in & out of the Fed
by Adam Button | Sep 16, 2020 16:52
The release of the 2023 FOMC dot plots will send an important signal to markets....A similar story in Wednesday to Tuesday as sterling remains the top performer,....US retail sales rise by less than expected and lower than the revised....nbsp; Below is today's Premium video with suggested positioning ahead....nbsp;....The FOMC decision is on Wednesday at 14:00 EST(18:00 GMT, 19:00 London, 22:00....See Ashraf's view here on the Fed in orange)....There is little intrigue in the decision itself...Better economic data in Q3 has cut the chance of further easing to nearly nil...Instead the focus will be on communication about lower rates for....This edition will feature the introduction of the 2023 dots and will....For 2023, the main question is on the median on rates...In the June forecasts, the median was still on the floor but some FOMC members....If it's enough to move the dot, it could be seen as hawkish and USD....Importantly, the pandemic has also unfolded better than the Fed anticipated...The 2020 growth forecast will illustrate that as the GDP estimate will move to....5% from -6...5% along with better unemployment...A tail risk is that better economic outcomes lead some to see liftoff as....There could also be a shift in PCE higher to account for average inflation....Along those same lines, there is a seasonal bottom in Treasury yields that....A more-straightforward element to watch is the statement and whether it....Given the pandemic and election uncertainty, that's not likely to be....nbsp;..
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Intraday Market Thought: USD Deleveraging & Tech Applications
by Adam Button | Sep 23, 2020 18:16
The US dollar resumes its rally even as the mood in equity markets initally....USD and GBP are the top performers while the gold, silver and the Kiwi were the....Below are today's metals intraday calls Ashraf gave members of the....If yields are falling by less than metals, would it pose fresh concern for....EURUSD hit its final target of 1...17 for 260 pips, entered at the high of Sep1st...2 New Premium trades were issued earlier today...nbsp; Below are today's daytrading calls in XAUUSD, XAGUSD for the WBG...nbsp;....USDX broke above that key neckline resistance of the inverted H&S....nbsp; The big question facing the FX market remains whether this is a dollar....The price action on Tuesday highlighted the scope for further gains as it broke....The bid in the dollar was strong and steady even as the news and market....Below, is Ashraf's chart & trade idea on the DOW30 before the close of....nbsp;....The steady bid in USD/JPY is certainly a curious element of the playing field as....That extra bid could be providing some of the marginal strength in the dollar...Another part of the equation is undoubtedly the resurgence of the virus....The UK placed a new curfew on bars and encouraged companies to allow work from....Eurozone consumer confidence was better than anticipated on Tuesday but cases....In the battle of easy money vs uncertainty the certain of low rates....That shift to the sidelines is helping to unwind crowded positions like long....nbsp;..
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Intraday Market Thought: Overlapping Deadlines
by Adam Button | Oct 19, 2020 20:10Sterling was able to shrug off tough Brexit talk on Friday as the market....The yen was the top performer last week while the Australian dollar lagged...CFTC positioning data shows the euro's vulnerability...The UK cancelled planned in-person talks with the EU's Brexit negotiator....The message from the UK is that the EU needs to put more on the table or the....But the EU strategy was showing some signs of success...A report on Monday said the House of Lords was preparing to strike clauses....Whether that's enough to bring them back to the table remains to be seen...The same issues around fisheries, level playing field provisions and enforcement....A reminder of the stakes came after the close on Friday when Moody's lowered....The cited a soft economy and an erosion in fiscal strength but also added that....rdquo;....Sterling put on a brave face late in the week but the bond market wasn't as....Gilt yields touched 0...15% on Friday to nearly match the September lows...Negative rates are already on the table but a disorderly Brexit or continued....CFTC Commitments of Traders....Speculative net futures trader positions as of the close on Tuesday...Net short denoted by - long by....EUR +168K vs +174K prior...GBP -10K vs -11K prior...JPY +20K vs +21K prior...CHF +12K vs +13K prior...CAD -14K vs -18K prior...AUD +4K vs +11K prior...NZD +6K vs +5K prior...The euro net continues to drift lower after hitting a record in July but.. -
Intraday Market Thought: Dawn of the Dark Winter
by Adam Button | Oct 26, 2020 18:54
The combination of resurfacing lockdowns and profit downgrades from once-safe....Fresh lockdowns in Italy and Spain along with record case numbers all over the....Peculiarly, AUD and NZD remain the only currencies to not fall against USD...CFTC positioning is below...nbsp; Ashraf's tweets below cover the unfolding situation starting with....nbsp; The Premium short in NASDAQ hit its final 11370 target for 430-pt gain...nbsp; ....The euro strength of the past week remains a puzzle...Some of that is a better tone on Brexit but the resurgence in the coronavirus no....No doubt positioning ahead of the US election is playing into it...The growth in virus numbers in Europe is daunting...In Italy cases hit a record 21,273 on Sunday...A week earlier, they were at 10,009; a week before that at 5372; and a week....The nearly 100% w/w growth rate is terrifying and the government responded....A similar dynamic is unfolding elsewhere...In Spain a national curfew from 6 am to 11 pm was imposed and a tighter lockdown....In the US, cases have spiked to a record 82K cases and there are rising cases in....The market may be preoccupied with the US election at the moment and not....We may be nearing a tipping point where it can't be ignored...Some countries have shown resilience to the virus and there's no chance that....Oil may be particularly vulnerable a slowdown in activity, especially with....CFTC Commitments of Traders....Speculative net futures trader positions as of the close on Tuesday...Net short denoted by - long by....EUR +166K vs +168K prior...GBP -2K vs -10K prior...JPY +14K vs +20K prior...CHF +14K vs +12K prior...CAD -19K vs -14K prior...AUD +7K vs +4K prior...NZD +6K vs +6K prior...Sterling shorts were fortunate (or smart) to square up ahead of last Wedneday&....However the lack of follow-through in GBP afterwards highlights the uneasiness..
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Intraday Market Thought: Is Bitcoin Different This Time?
by Adam Button | Nov 18, 2020 14:58
Bitcoin hit $18,480 with far little fanfare than it did three years ago;....Another round of Nasdaq selling and rally for DOW30 and SPX, while metals....On Tuesday, sterling was the highest performing FX and US retail sales missed....A new FX trade will be issued after the London close...Is it different this time for Bitcoin? Last time it got to these lofty levels....It is different this time ....One big difference is that the field of crypto assets has narrowed...In the initial boom, money flowed into thousands of speculative instruments and....This time it's in a few assets...That concentration means that even with less money going into crypto overall,....Secondly, there are now established and trusted ways to buy crypto...The first run-up was characterized by fly-by-night operators and even the....This is less of a barrier this time and that will attract more people looking to....Thirdly, there is a growing argument for utility...The announcement that Paypal would facilitate crypto in the fall was the....Finally, the lack of mainstream hype at this point is a positive...It's building and on a break of $20,000 it will build further, adding fuel....Ashraf tells me he sees $26,000 Bitcoin before year-end...nbsp;....Naturally, prices are stretched in the 70% rally since September but Bitcoin is....The FOMO hasn't even started yet...In other markets Tuesday, the tone was more-negative in large part due to a....It could be a blip after six months of surprisingly strong spending but it....But even if that's the case, the modest blip in markets suggests..
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Intraday Market Thought: FX to Join the Party?
by Adam Button | Nov 27, 2020 19:46
The moves in equity markets this month have been breathtaking, while FX is....The US dollar ended the week lower against all G10 currencies, with JPY as....Ashraf told us gold has never stopped falling at its 200-DMA...So how far does it go? see below...nbsp; NZD and AUD led, while GBP and CHF lagged ahead of JPY and USD...Ashraf has posted the Premium video below on his strategy to trade EURUSD....Take AUDJPY for instance—It's a classic 'risk appetite' trade....5% in the month...That would normally be a great month but considering that many equity indexes....A similar story is seen in other classic FX risk trades; some of that is yield....Yet, it's not difficult to imagine a scenario where risk currencies begin to....A number of yen crosses are threatening to break out and commodity prices have....Notably, oil rose to the highest since March, while USD/CAD broke below 1...30 with authority...nbsp;....Metals were in focus again today, falling back sharply, this time gold....If they give way easily then it's a sign of a dramatic reversal of sentiment....Ashraf reminds us that XAUUSD may drop by as much as 3%-5% below its 200-DMA....Whether this means 1745 or 1730 is in the works, remains to be seen...The other question is “how long the slow burn will last before any....nbsp; No real positives are expected before year-end...nbsp;....For ideas on how trade EURUSD into the rest of the year, take a look at the....nbsp;....nbsp;..
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Intraday Market Thought: Deal Talk Reveals Market Bias
by Adam Button | Dec 18, 2020 18:23
Negotiations are always the most-difficult at the end but we're now....US indices remain jittery following news of a an obstacle related to preserving....The US dollar slumped again on Thursday but is mounting a broad bounce on Friday...We're happy to announce that our WhatsAppBroadcastGroup members with....Samples from this week's messages are below...nbsp;....Boris Johnson and Ursula von der Leyen had a phone call on Thursday and the....Von der Leyen was first and her comments were more upbeat...She said they had made “substantial progress” in talks and....The market reaction to that was minimal, suggesting a near deal was already....A short time later, Johnson offered a different take saying it looked very....He said negotiations were now in a serious state...That kicked off a 50-pip decline in cable that was later helped along by a....Combined they show a market that was overstretched, at least in the short-....Does it mean that a deal is full priced in and that there's a risk of a sell-....At the same time there may be heavy real money flows back into Britain in the....nbsp;....In the US, all signs point to a stimulus deal on Friday or the weekend...A text of a deal is expected imminently and a vote could come as soon as the....Similarly to the Brexit deal, the market is now showing little reaction to....In the case of both Brexit and US stimulus, the signals in the market will....It's a dangerous time of year to trade at the best of times and that'..
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Intraday Market Thought: What’s the Yields Signal?
by Adam Button | Jan 26, 2021 18:12Another jumbled mess of a trading session in an exuberant but divergent....The dollar is off its lows of the day, but still down across the board...EURUSD is off its highs after the ECB said it's studying the causes behind....Ashraf posted the chart below, highlting similarities in DXY weakness alongside....Note how DXY bottomed in mid Q1 2018 (after a brief market selloff), while....nbsp;....Monday's 7-bp decline in US 10-year yields (from 1...10% to 1...03%) is considered a break below its 2-week range support, but keep an eye on....03%) and prior 1...0750% support as new resistance...Normally, that would signal risk aversion or declining economic prospects....The Fed is buying $120B in Treasuries and MBS per month while re-investing....One force driving down yields was yesterday's remarks from Senate....This lingering disappointing may also explain why indices are reluctant to....nbsp;....Any further decline in yields would be likely accelerate selling in USD/JPY and....The problem is that the opposite happened on Monday in what was a strange....Much of the broader discussion in markets is about bubbles and there are....Bonds might be giving us an early signal that it's all run too far...At the same time, bonds themselves will become the story on a fall back below 1%....That would signal more easy money for equities and we've little doubt that....In summary, it's a market without a real theme right now besides anticipation of....US stimulus talks have tried to fill the void but haven't been able to capture....nbsp;.. -
Intraday Market Thought: Yield Shield Peeled
by Adam Button | Feb 25, 2021 22:26
The broader market is struggling with weather to interpret rising yields as a....On Thursday, an ugly rise in rates (10 yr hit 1...60%) led to a big reversal in risk with CHF leading and AUD lagging...The US PCE report on Friday will add another big risk...Below are snippets of the past 2 days given by Ashraf to members of the....nbsp;....There is a good argument that rising yields reflect confidence in the economy....At the end of the day, US 5-year yields were up 22 basis points to 0...82% and US 10s had briefly hit 1...60%....On its own, 1...6% isn't anything akin to 'high rates' but at the start of the month....98%....They've moved too quickly for anyone's comfort and that message....5%....Initially the FX market shrugged off higher yields, early on Tuesday AUD/USD....After a strong US durable goods orders report, the Canadian dollar also hit a....But as the jump in yields grew increasingly disorderly, both reversed....Cable was also sucked back to 1...40...Importantly, this was a global jump in yields and while the outlook is strong....The Fed will be facing pressure internally and externally to clamp down....The first step will be verbal intervention...The Fed's Williams speaks Monday, Brainard on Tuesday and Powell next....Yet, if Friday's PCE report shows unwelcome inflation, they may be forced....The consensus estimates on both core and headline are +1...4%....As Ashraf hraf has pointed out in Monday's video (direct open link here), he..
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Intraday Market Thought: Dollar in Demand, Best in 8 Months
by Adam Button | Mar 26, 2021 16:55
The US dollar continues to strengthen and that leaves us with an opportunity....DXY is having its best month since July 2020...The US week wrapped with softer than expected core PCE price index at 1...4% y/y vs exp and prev 1...5%....Below are 2 charts: First is the extended analog with 2018 that deserves....The second chart is that of the latest progress in USDJPY, where it was when we....nbsp; ....US 10-year yields made a big move higher on February 16 to break above the....20%....That kicked off a round of risk aversion that continued this week...The second-worst performing currency in that period is the New Zealand dollar,....However the worst performer is the Swiss franc, which is a traditional safe....What's happening?....It's all about carry...Pledges from the Fed to keep ultra-low rates had made the US dollar into a....At the same time, the eurozone is struggling to roll out the covid vaccine....There are plenty of cross-currents but there is a clear unwind in USD-funded....That also helps to explain how CAD is the only currency to outpace USD...Canadian bonds have narrowly traded alongside their US counterpart and as....Another factor that's boosting the US dollar is positioning...Short-USD was one of the most-crowded trades coming into the year...nbsp; As the dollar index climbs to the highest since November, that trade will....What could kick the dollar into overdrive is a shift in Fed....For now, the chorus about seeing through transitory inflation is a huge hurdle....nbsp; We also do not think the chapter of oil selloff is over...nbsp;..
