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Results: 331 to 340 of 1,000
Results: 331 to 340 of 1,000
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Intraday Market Thought: Special Effects, Gold Retests 1785
by Adam Button | Jun 30, 2020 16:58
Quarter-end directionless trading ensues in indices as the Monday Effect in....More on the Virus-Count Monday Effect below...nbsp;USD is knocked over by all currencies as XAUUSD retests the 1785....A new Premium trade was posted yesterday at the close of the US cash session...Ashraf posted the Premium subscribers' video with a focus on rare price and....The breakout of a triangle in EUR/GBP on Monday (exploited by our Premium....On the fundamental side, market pricing was less compelling...The US dollar is rebounding across the board, attempting to breakout of the 97...70/80 barrier...US Crude oil deserves a close look as its $37 support remains in tandem with....Yesterday, US pending home sales jumped 44...3% in another positive economic surprise, compared to +19...3% expected...There was some follow through in the market on the headlines but it's a....Virus-Count Monday Effects....In terms of the virus, cases in the hotspots were lower but that was surely....There is systematic undercounting and testing in many states/countries coming....The effect often extends through Tuesday before payback begins on Wednesday...By this point, markets should have factored that in but there were....There were also noticeable divergences...The S&P 500 rallied 1...5% but Treasury yields were lower and the US 5-year hit a record low of 0...27%....It's quarter end and it's always easy to point the finger at that for....The lesson at the moment is to watch the technicals but the keep the....On that front, it will be a busy few days in the US starting Tuesday with....It's one of the best forward-looking indicators and the consensus is an....5 from 86...6.
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Intraday Market Thought: USD Turning Point?
by Ashraf Laidi | Jul 24, 2020 18:29
Here are two charts for the US dollar index and another chart at the bottom of....Is this a turning point for the US dollar? You know the US dollar has a....But let's look ahead: Will USD bulls finally see some light at the end of....But what's beyond that? Read on below...nbsp; The Premium long EURUSD was closed for 295 pips yesterday and the long....The EURCAD is currently +430 pips from the first time it was issued in May 28,....And here is OPEN ACCESS to this WEEK's Premium Video...nbsp;....One USD-positive narrative anticipates that macro damage in and out of the US....nbsp; One USD-negative narrative is that the Fed—which has already reduced....We could also mention surging Eurozone portfolio flows, but we'll stay here....SO let's cut it short and mention some technical signposts, leaving you....nbsp;....nbsp;..
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Intraday Market Thought: Executive Uncertainty
by Adam Button | Aug 10, 2020 10:28
A series of executive orders from Trump on Saturday shifted the balance of power....Friday's non-farm payrolls report beat expectations...CFTC positioning data showed euro net longs at a record...Ashraf will be going away on holiday this week, so his updates/tweets and....أشرف العايدي سيكون في إجازة خلال الاسبوع الحالي...The US President waded into murky legal waters on Saturday with four executive....The two most-notable were a deferral on payroll tax cuts and directive for $400/....Trump doesn't have the authority to waive the payroll tax cut but can delay....However, it's not clear if employers will stop collecting it without knowing....The $400/week stimulus is also dubious legally and will almost-certainly be....It also requires states chipping 25% of the payment and it's not clear all....So while the payments are short-term positive for many Americans, the market&....Ultimately, what the move does is give Congress less incentive to move quickly....It also hands some leverage back to Republicans and means that Democrats may....That would be USD-positive and negative for risk assets and precious metals, an....The non-farm payrolls report on Friday was generally upbeat with unemployment....2% compared to 10...6% expected...There were 1462K jobs compared to 1200K expected...Again, while this is good news on the surface, it also takes away the impetus....CFTC Commitments of Traders....Speculative net futures trader positions as of the close on Tuesday...Net short denoted by - long by....EUR +180K vs +157K prior...GBP -15K vs -25K prior...JPY +31K vs +29K prior...CHF +12K vs +8K prior...CAD -23K vs -13K prior...AUD -1K vs -5K prior...NZD -1K vs -1K prior...The euro net short six months ago was -120K and the turnaround has been....Longs have been rewarded lately as the structure of the euro makes debt....Still, there are considerable economic risks in the eurozone and the growth in....Italy's cases were at a two-month high of 552 on Friday and followed that..
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Intraday Market Thought: Trading in & out of the Fed
by Adam Button | Sep 16, 2020 16:52
The release of the 2023 FOMC dot plots will send an important signal to markets....A similar story in Wednesday to Tuesday as sterling remains the top performer,....US retail sales rise by less than expected and lower than the revised....nbsp; Below is today's Premium video with suggested positioning ahead....nbsp;....The FOMC decision is on Wednesday at 14:00 EST(18:00 GMT, 19:00 London, 22:00....See Ashraf's view here on the Fed in orange)....There is little intrigue in the decision itself...Better economic data in Q3 has cut the chance of further easing to nearly nil...Instead the focus will be on communication about lower rates for....This edition will feature the introduction of the 2023 dots and will....For 2023, the main question is on the median on rates...In the June forecasts, the median was still on the floor but some FOMC members....If it's enough to move the dot, it could be seen as hawkish and USD....Importantly, the pandemic has also unfolded better than the Fed anticipated...The 2020 growth forecast will illustrate that as the GDP estimate will move to....5% from -6...5% along with better unemployment...A tail risk is that better economic outcomes lead some to see liftoff as....There could also be a shift in PCE higher to account for average inflation....Along those same lines, there is a seasonal bottom in Treasury yields that....A more-straightforward element to watch is the statement and whether it....Given the pandemic and election uncertainty, that's not likely to be....nbsp;..
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Intraday Market Thought: USD Deleveraging & Tech Applications
by Adam Button | Sep 23, 2020 18:16
The US dollar resumes its rally even as the mood in equity markets initally....USD and GBP are the top performers while the gold, silver and the Kiwi were the....Below are today's metals intraday calls Ashraf gave members of the....If yields are falling by less than metals, would it pose fresh concern for....EURUSD hit its final target of 1...17 for 260 pips, entered at the high of Sep1st...2 New Premium trades were issued earlier today...nbsp; Below are today's daytrading calls in XAUUSD, XAGUSD for the WBG...nbsp;....USDX broke above that key neckline resistance of the inverted H&S....nbsp; The big question facing the FX market remains whether this is a dollar....The price action on Tuesday highlighted the scope for further gains as it broke....The bid in the dollar was strong and steady even as the news and market....Below, is Ashraf's chart & trade idea on the DOW30 before the close of....nbsp;....The steady bid in USD/JPY is certainly a curious element of the playing field as....That extra bid could be providing some of the marginal strength in the dollar...Another part of the equation is undoubtedly the resurgence of the virus....The UK placed a new curfew on bars and encouraged companies to allow work from....Eurozone consumer confidence was better than anticipated on Tuesday but cases....In the battle of easy money vs uncertainty the certain of low rates....That shift to the sidelines is helping to unwind crowded positions like long....nbsp;..
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Intraday Market Thought: Overlapping Deadlines
by Adam Button | Oct 19, 2020 20:10Sterling was able to shrug off tough Brexit talk on Friday as the market....The yen was the top performer last week while the Australian dollar lagged...CFTC positioning data shows the euro's vulnerability...The UK cancelled planned in-person talks with the EU's Brexit negotiator....The message from the UK is that the EU needs to put more on the table or the....But the EU strategy was showing some signs of success...A report on Monday said the House of Lords was preparing to strike clauses....Whether that's enough to bring them back to the table remains to be seen...The same issues around fisheries, level playing field provisions and enforcement....A reminder of the stakes came after the close on Friday when Moody's lowered....The cited a soft economy and an erosion in fiscal strength but also added that....rdquo;....Sterling put on a brave face late in the week but the bond market wasn't as....Gilt yields touched 0...15% on Friday to nearly match the September lows...Negative rates are already on the table but a disorderly Brexit or continued....CFTC Commitments of Traders....Speculative net futures trader positions as of the close on Tuesday...Net short denoted by - long by....EUR +168K vs +174K prior...GBP -10K vs -11K prior...JPY +20K vs +21K prior...CHF +12K vs +13K prior...CAD -14K vs -18K prior...AUD +4K vs +11K prior...NZD +6K vs +5K prior...The euro net continues to drift lower after hitting a record in July but.. -
Intraday Market Thought: Dawn of the Dark Winter
by Adam Button | Oct 26, 2020 18:54
The combination of resurfacing lockdowns and profit downgrades from once-safe....Fresh lockdowns in Italy and Spain along with record case numbers all over the....Peculiarly, AUD and NZD remain the only currencies to not fall against USD...CFTC positioning is below...nbsp; Ashraf's tweets below cover the unfolding situation starting with....nbsp; The Premium short in NASDAQ hit its final 11370 target for 430-pt gain...nbsp; ....The euro strength of the past week remains a puzzle...Some of that is a better tone on Brexit but the resurgence in the coronavirus no....No doubt positioning ahead of the US election is playing into it...The growth in virus numbers in Europe is daunting...In Italy cases hit a record 21,273 on Sunday...A week earlier, they were at 10,009; a week before that at 5372; and a week....The nearly 100% w/w growth rate is terrifying and the government responded....A similar dynamic is unfolding elsewhere...In Spain a national curfew from 6 am to 11 pm was imposed and a tighter lockdown....In the US, cases have spiked to a record 82K cases and there are rising cases in....The market may be preoccupied with the US election at the moment and not....We may be nearing a tipping point where it can't be ignored...Some countries have shown resilience to the virus and there's no chance that....Oil may be particularly vulnerable a slowdown in activity, especially with....CFTC Commitments of Traders....Speculative net futures trader positions as of the close on Tuesday...Net short denoted by - long by....EUR +166K vs +168K prior...GBP -2K vs -10K prior...JPY +14K vs +20K prior...CHF +14K vs +12K prior...CAD -19K vs -14K prior...AUD +7K vs +4K prior...NZD +6K vs +6K prior...Sterling shorts were fortunate (or smart) to square up ahead of last Wedneday&....However the lack of follow-through in GBP afterwards highlights the uneasiness..
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Intraday Market Thought: Is Bitcoin Different This Time?
by Adam Button | Nov 18, 2020 14:58
Bitcoin hit $18,480 with far little fanfare than it did three years ago;....Another round of Nasdaq selling and rally for DOW30 and SPX, while metals....On Tuesday, sterling was the highest performing FX and US retail sales missed....A new FX trade will be issued after the London close...Is it different this time for Bitcoin? Last time it got to these lofty levels....It is different this time ....One big difference is that the field of crypto assets has narrowed...In the initial boom, money flowed into thousands of speculative instruments and....This time it's in a few assets...That concentration means that even with less money going into crypto overall,....Secondly, there are now established and trusted ways to buy crypto...The first run-up was characterized by fly-by-night operators and even the....This is less of a barrier this time and that will attract more people looking to....Thirdly, there is a growing argument for utility...The announcement that Paypal would facilitate crypto in the fall was the....Finally, the lack of mainstream hype at this point is a positive...It's building and on a break of $20,000 it will build further, adding fuel....Ashraf tells me he sees $26,000 Bitcoin before year-end...nbsp;....Naturally, prices are stretched in the 70% rally since September but Bitcoin is....The FOMO hasn't even started yet...In other markets Tuesday, the tone was more-negative in large part due to a....It could be a blip after six months of surprisingly strong spending but it....But even if that's the case, the modest blip in markets suggests..
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Intraday Market Thought: FX to Join the Party?
by Adam Button | Nov 27, 2020 19:46
The moves in equity markets this month have been breathtaking, while FX is....The US dollar ended the week lower against all G10 currencies, with JPY as....Ashraf told us gold has never stopped falling at its 200-DMA...So how far does it go? see below...nbsp; NZD and AUD led, while GBP and CHF lagged ahead of JPY and USD...Ashraf has posted the Premium video below on his strategy to trade EURUSD....Take AUDJPY for instance—It's a classic 'risk appetite' trade....5% in the month...That would normally be a great month but considering that many equity indexes....A similar story is seen in other classic FX risk trades; some of that is yield....Yet, it's not difficult to imagine a scenario where risk currencies begin to....A number of yen crosses are threatening to break out and commodity prices have....Notably, oil rose to the highest since March, while USD/CAD broke below 1...30 with authority...nbsp;....Metals were in focus again today, falling back sharply, this time gold....If they give way easily then it's a sign of a dramatic reversal of sentiment....Ashraf reminds us that XAUUSD may drop by as much as 3%-5% below its 200-DMA....Whether this means 1745 or 1730 is in the works, remains to be seen...The other question is “how long the slow burn will last before any....nbsp; No real positives are expected before year-end...nbsp;....For ideas on how trade EURUSD into the rest of the year, take a look at the....nbsp;....nbsp;..
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Intraday Market Thought: Deal Talk Reveals Market Bias
by Adam Button | Dec 18, 2020 18:23
Negotiations are always the most-difficult at the end but we're now....US indices remain jittery following news of a an obstacle related to preserving....The US dollar slumped again on Thursday but is mounting a broad bounce on Friday...We're happy to announce that our WhatsAppBroadcastGroup members with....Samples from this week's messages are below...nbsp;....Boris Johnson and Ursula von der Leyen had a phone call on Thursday and the....Von der Leyen was first and her comments were more upbeat...She said they had made “substantial progress” in talks and....The market reaction to that was minimal, suggesting a near deal was already....A short time later, Johnson offered a different take saying it looked very....He said negotiations were now in a serious state...That kicked off a 50-pip decline in cable that was later helped along by a....Combined they show a market that was overstretched, at least in the short-....Does it mean that a deal is full priced in and that there's a risk of a sell-....At the same time there may be heavy real money flows back into Britain in the....nbsp;....In the US, all signs point to a stimulus deal on Friday or the weekend...A text of a deal is expected imminently and a vote could come as soon as the....Similarly to the Brexit deal, the market is now showing little reaction to....In the case of both Brexit and US stimulus, the signals in the market will....It's a dangerous time of year to trade at the best of times and that'..
