Search Results

Searched for:
Results: 371 to 380 of 1,000

< Prev Next >

1...31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45...100

Intraday Market Thought: Trump Threatens, UK Shrinks, CAD Jobs Slump, Germany Turns Taps

by Adam Button | Aug 9, 2019 15:33
JPY is back on top and indices falling on fresh Trump comments threatening to....from GBP slumped below 1...21 on UK Q2 GDP falling to -0...2%, showing the first contraction in nearly 7 years (more on this below)....Germany may finally relent to pressure to stimulate the economy as a report....Canadian July jobs fell by a net -24K vs exp -15K and the unemp rate rose to 5...7% from 5...5%, but wages rose 4...from 3...6% complicating matters for the BoC...Indices peaked out at 6pm Eastern on Thursday on White House reports (see how....Premium subscribers look out for a potentially new trade later today if the....Euro is parly stabilizing on soaring EURGBP and on reports that that....The IMF, ECB and others have been badgering the government to spend and....The report said new debt would 'strictly' go towards climate change....Elsewhere in Eurozone politics, the euro briefly stumbled with an Italian....The League is in a dominant position in the polls and with a small further bump....Risks are lower than they were in prior elections with an exit from the eurozone....Watch EURCHF for a better appreciation of these risks...Ominous UK GDP Report....Aside from the obvious warning signs the UK GDP contraction calls for supporters....The 1...6% y/y decline in business investment was countered by 0...7% rise in government spending focused on healthcare...The usually functioning services sector, showed no growth for the 4th straight....Back to the Bank of Canada...It's been weeks since Poloz and company weighed in and there is nothing....A cut would be premature and certainly isn't justified by recent economic....However, if it's coming, there will need to be some kind of BOC signal..
Intraday Market Thought: Curve Inverts Despite Trump Reverse

by Adam Button | Aug 14, 2019 16:21
Trump gives it, market takes it away...Less than 24 hours after markets rallied 1...5% on Trump's announcement to delayed US tariffs on a portion of the....2% for the Dow) after the most popular measure of the US yield curve (10y-2y)....The other reason (if these matter to you) is related to China's reaction...More detail on how this YC measure differs from other measures and its....Ashraf issued a video for Premium subscribers last night (posted below) on....4% rebound...Trump explained the reason to delay tariffs on many consumer products until....He also hinted that he was expecting agricultural purchases in exchange...Chinese reports gave less on an indication of a thaw...They highlighted that it was the US who made the call and press reports took a....Those aren't the actions of a country who is looking to compromise...A Few Pointers on the Yield Curve....Here is a series of tweets Ashraf made on the topic...Bear in mind it took about 6-12 months on average for the US economy to dip....Chronicles of a Fed Error....Contributing to the sell-off in indices were remarks from St Louis Fed's....And so as long as the Fed find no reason to cut rates further and markets are....Adding to the angst in bonds was the July US CPI report...Prices rose 1...8% y/y compared to 1...7% expected but that modest number disguises a near-term jump in core....Ex food and energy, prices rose 0...3% m/m; combined with the same rise in June, that's the fastest two-month....The flipside was the wage growth was dismal.
Intraday Market Thought: EUR GBP USD Triangularity

by Adam Button | Dec 17, 2019 12:25
Pound loses all of its post-elections rally after PM Johnson said he would not....nbsp; US economic data on Monday was mixed as the market eases back towards....The euro is again the top performer on Tuesday, with EURUSD rising for the 3rd....nbsp; UK employment data was mixed, showing fresh declines in unemployment....Ashraf summarizes the EUR-GBP-USD situation in his tweet below...US Industrial production and housing starts/permits are next...Cliff-edge Headlines are Back?....Johnson's insistence to complete a trade deal by Dec 2020 is viewed by the....This has led to GBP selloff, especially as EU negotiators said it's highly....Whether Johnson is using the threat of a hard Brexit as a means to rush through....nbsp;....Global PMIs....The next leg in broad markets will depend on the strength of global growth....It will be weeks before we have a better idea of how strong the economy is but....It's clear now that most data points have stabilize since September but few....On Monday, the Markit US services PMI was at 52...2 compared to 52...0 expected...That's an improvement from the 50...7 low in October but still well-below 56...0 in February...On the manufacturing side, the index was at 52...6 compared to 52...6 expected...That's flat from the prior month and there was no improvement in new orders...Along the same lines, the Empire Fed manufacturing index was at +3...5 in November compared to +4...0 expected...It remains squarely in the doldrums...One spot that's inarguably turning higher is housing...The sensitivity to interest rates in the past two years has been remarkable...The home builders sentiment survey rose to a 20-year high on Monday at +76 vs....In a global sense, US house prices are still relatively low so that sector....Globally, the picture is also mixed...Markit's eurozone manufacturing PMI deteriorated to 45...9 in December compared to 47...3 expected...That was just a shade above the September low...In contrast, weekend industrial production data from China was a bit..
Intraday Market Thought: High Yielders Gather Pace

by Adam Button | Dec 30, 2019 23:37
AUD/USD stretches its gain above the 200-day moving average and is currently....7000 for the first time since July...The kiwi has risen 200 pips above its 200-DMA, ignoring the pullback in....USDJPY dropped 80 pips 24 hrs after Ashraf wrote this about the yen...USDX posts its 3rd worst month in 2 years...Tuesday is New Year's Eve and the only US release is Dec US consumer....Wednesday is off in most markets, but Jan 2nd is business as usual -- with UK....This is followed by Friday's release of German CPI, US manufacturing ISM and....Both GBPUSD Premium trades are in the green and 3 new charts have been added...Below, is Ashraf's latest analog chart on NZDUSD...If there was any lesson in 2019 it was the reminder to follow the lead of....This year's U-turn at the Fed dominated the landscape and changed....Australia's central bank had a message of its own late this year as it....With global trade and growth prospects improving, the Australian dollar remains....It's not the ideal time of the year to draw conclusions, but AUD/USD is now....The rally above the 200-dma follows 21-months where AUD/USD never climbed above....Given the calendar, it still feels premature to chase the rally but if it&....In the bigger picture, the US dollar looks increasingly vulnerable...The dollar index itself is down 2...6% from the October high and that peak was well-short of the 2016-2017 high...Looking ahead, the theme continues to be whether we're seeing a skid along....The market is certainly betting on a rebound but economic data remains soft,..
Intraday Market Thought: Darkening Macro Picture, Soaring Bank Loan Losses

by Adam Button | Apr 15, 2020 23:11
A shocking fall in the Empire Fed and some of the details of the US retail....nbsp; The US dollar was the top performer while the Australian dollar....US banks' loan loss provisions soared, with the BoA, Citigroup and....8bn of charges in Q1...These figures should imply sharp blow to the once-solid consumer sector...more below) Oil and indices futures took a fresh dip moments ago after the....Australian jobs and US initial jobless claims are due up next...There are 5 Premium trades currently open in FX, indices and crypto; 3 in the....موازنة الانتظار مع التنفيذ فيديو للمشتركين...The Empire Fed report was expected to sink...It's an indicator that's close to real-time and it surveys....Yet no one thought it would be this bad...The consensus estimate was for a fall to -35 from 21 in March...That would have been narrowly lower than the -34...3 bottom during the financial crisis...There were 43 estimates in the Bloomberg survey of economists and the worst was....Only two were below -45...The result was -78...2...It's a massive miss and it could harken a broader transition in the....With regards to those bank loan loss provisions, not only they slashed US....The blow to the US consumer is too grea, Not to mention additional loan losses....More evidence was in the March retail sales report...The headline at -8...7% compared to -8...0% expected was much closer to the consensus but it was still the worst....It's within the data where there are hints on the state of the consumer...Spending on clothing was down 50...7%, Vehicles 25...6% and electronics 15%....The economy wasn't closed until halfway through the month...As for market moves, the US dollar rebounded sharply, particularly against....AUD/USD fell more than 2% after seven days of gains...The Canadian dollar also gave back much of its recent strength...That was helped by a surprise announcement of more QE from the Bank of....In the day ahead, economic data will continue to be top-of-mind...The Australian March employment report is at 0130 GMT and forecast to show 30,....Then at 1230 GMT it's US weekly jobless claims with another 5...5m job losses expected...That report will be a good test of the market's sensitivity to data, good..
Intraday Market Thought: Oil Implodes, Currencies Next?

by Adam Button | Apr 21, 2020 23:19
The June oil futures contract for WTI closed above $11 today from a low of $7,....30...As for Brent oil, it hit an 18-year low of $17...51...Questions arise whether Brent will find the same fate as WTI, despite less....The difference from yesterday is that US indices began to feel the hit from oil,....A story that fell through the cracks was the RBNZ leader saying he was open to....The big question right now is whether central banks and governments can....US coronavirus deaths topped 45k on Tuesday, doubling in a little over a....A 6th trade for the Premium Insights subscribers was posted issued with 3....All 6 existing trades are currently in the green (please make sure to refresh....Ashraf's tweet above give an idea about not only Trump's attempts to....We have warned repeatedly for weeks here and here that supply of crude outstrips....That means excess oil is a nuisance and you can find yourself in a position....Even knowing all that, a plunge to -$40 is beyond shocking...A few cents negative would have been understandable, but this was a sign of....The drop extended further out into crude on Tuesday and June crude fell to $6...50 as the USO ETF tried to pare down holdings that exceeded 30% of open....Can central banks and governments can counteract the demand shock?....Stimulus sums right now are astronomical and on Tuesday the US Senate passed....It's the same story everywhere and no one is even offering a pretense at....On Tuesday the RBNZ said out loud two words we once thought we would never....He said he was open minded on directly monetizing debt...The reality is that there is no other way out of the fiscal holes that....But however it's done it's undoubtedly good for hard assets and....USD bulls may see less reasons for concern if oil's implosion means....And if deflation does become a problem, would it be a fear factor for gold? Is..
Intraday Market Thought: The Virus and the Economy

by Adam Button | Jul 13, 2020 12:23
Florida grabbed headlines to start the week with a 15,300 new cases; that's....But below the surface there are signs of optimism...See our note our weekly reminder on virus reporting patterns below...Silver and gold are leading against USD, while GBP and JPY lag...We also cite a recent recurring pattern in USD/CNY below...nbsp; US index futures are up after Pfizer and BioNtech got fast track....CFTC data showed more speculators buying the euro...nbsp; Below is the performance for FX and metals against the USD since the....nbsp;....US handling of the virus has undoubtedly been a failure but the trend in the....Ultimately, the US will get there and took a big step on Saturday as the....In terms of data, the Florida number also wasn't as bad as the headline...The 35% jump in cases came on a 60% increase in the number of tests...As a result, the positivity percentage fell to 11...25% from 12...6%....In Arizona, Texas and California there are early signs of a leveling off in....While hospitalizations and deaths will likely rise through month-end, there is....Pfizer also stoked some weekend optimism with the pharm company's CEO saying....After a 1% gain on Friday, S&P 500 futures started the week higher...The challenge for traders (especially those trading off indices) is to....nbsp; The Premium Insight's WhatsApp Broadcast Group capitalised on Thursday&....nbsp; ....With regards to FX, Ashraf is cautioning on the Chinese yuan's rally past....0 level (USDCNY drops below 7...0), sugesting a key inflection point in the USD's next leg down...Recall how last year the 7...00 resistance in USD/CNY proved a stubborn barrier in the face of USD bids,....nbsp;....The focus will remain on the virus Monday with a very light economic....Be advised that most states tend to report the weekly low in virus numbers....That's a factor the market should be better at pricing in but it continue to....CFTC Commitments of Traders....Speculative net futures trader positions as of the close on Tuesday...Net short denoted by - long by....EUR +104K vs +98K prior...GBP -16K vs -21K prior...JPY +17K vs +24K prior...CHF +4K vs +4K prior...CAD -17K vs -21K prior...AUD -1K vs -3K prior...NZD 0K vs 0K prior...Euro longs dropped 20K two weeks ago but had a small bounce last week...Aside from that position, the speculative market is reluctant to pile....nbsp;..
Intraday Market Thought: After the Blue Wave

by Adam Button | Oct 23, 2020 18:50
Are we getting ahead of ourselves to talk about the Blue Wave (US Democratic....We recognize the ever-present chance of a 2016-style surprise but with everyone....The charts below may suggest that markets are indeed preferring a blue....nbsp;....1) Lame duck stimulus....The market continues to get bounced around by stimulus headlines but this is....Pelosi highlighted progress on Thursday but was asked at the end of her press....Those are the two areas that have held up negotiations for months and doom....So the question after the election is whether a deal is possible in the lame....Assuming a blue wave, it appears highly unlikely unless it's something small....For the broader economy, it's going to have to wait...That's likely to trigger severe market disruptions even with a huge....Can the market look through it? Probably but it will be a tough test...2) COVID resurgence....France and Holland reported record case numbers on Thursday and the US is....US cases regained the 70K mark, while Italy, France and Luxembourg will....Another wave is here and the speed of the rise in cases – particularly....Flu season doesn't peak until February and expectations for growth....Again the question will be whether the market can look through it and based on....3) Negative rates....Central banks in a number of countries are flirting with negative rates and....The hollowing out of eurozone banks might be a coincidence but the financial....If there's some success in Australia or the UK, could the Fed have another....Other themes to watch will be: digital currency adoption, rising home prices,....Join Ashraf for his webinar on the latest lntermarket fractals applications..
Intraday Market Thought: The Scramble for Vaccine Begins

by Adam Button | Dec 8, 2020 12:38
We all agree that the key to economic acceleration in 2021 is a vaccine but....On Tuesday we learned that the US will have an inadequate supply of one of the....It may be time to start paying attention to the timeline...The vaccine is the light at the end of the virus tunnel but with the UK having....The first batch of 6...4m Pfizer doses is expected to be shipped to the US this weekend and....However the US has only ordered enough of that vaccine to protect 50 million....A report on Tuesday said the US declined to order more cases in the summer and....Other candidates may fill that timing gap but it's not certain...There appears to be some level of concern in the White House because on....It's not clear that order will have any power...The threat of commandeering doses paid for by other countries threatens to....The EU has agreed to buy up to 300 million doses of the Pfizer vaccine but....The UK has ordered 40m doses of the virus and will receive 800K on Tuesday....Some time soon the Queen will be vaccinated in what will be a powerful....Canada has an interesting strategy in that it isn't at the front of the....That's far more than needed for the 35m population but Canada will donate or....With only cursory data, it appears that the US and UK will be the early winners....The US may have fumbled on Pfizer but there are six other leading candidates....The UK is likely to be close behind...Other regions may be waiting until Q3, year-end 2021 or beyond for widespread....All of this will affect the granularities of the reopening but there....Once the elderly and vulnerable are vaccinated, will places try to get back....Again, the US has shown more of a willingness than other developed....There's a consensus call for USD weakness in 2021 but there's also a..
Intraday Market Thought: Prices will be Paid, Ratios Remembered

by Adam Button | Mar 16, 2021 0:19
The prices paid components of every manufacturing survey continue to soar as....The kiwi led the way on Monday while the euro lagged on vaccine worries...US retail sales are due up next...Here is the latest Nasdaq/10yr yield ratio compared to 2000/02...The Empire Fed survey of New York-area manufacturing was slightly better than....The sequence in the past five months is: 64...4, 57...8, 45...5, 37...1, 29...1...That's a dramatic escalation and while the Fed can promise to see through....For now, consumers are seeing the upside of higher home prices but the costs of....At times, companies can't pass those through the supply chain but with a....Monday's overall trade was relatively subdued...There was a brief flight into the US dollar after nearly all of Europe pulled....That's unfortunate but the market quickly rebounding, perhaps concluding....EU officials will have an update on Tuesday...That news will compete with the US February retail sales report...The consensus is for a 0...5% decline after the +5...3% surge in January...The 'control group' is forecast down 0...9%....Those expected falls are in large part due to terrible weather in much of the....On the other hand, if the consumer powered through the cold and snow, then....China Data Highlights Re-Opening Tailwind....The February 2020 lockdown in China has since been overshadowed by the pandemic....The Canadian dollar was the top performer last week while the yen lagged;....CFTC data showed a drop in the crowded euro long position...The year-over-year increases in Chinese February data were remarkable...Industrial output was up 35...1% y/y compared to 30...0% expected...Retail sales rose 33...8% y/y versus 32...0% expected and new construction starts were up 64...3% y/y...Of course, that all reflects the depths of the shutdown as much as the....At the same time, it underscores the pipeline of positive headlines that will....CFTC Commitments of Traders....Speculative net futures trader positions as of the close on Tuesday...Net short denoted by - long by....EUR +102K vs +126K prior...GBP +34K vs +36K prior...JPY +7K vs +19K prior...CHF +14K vs +12K prior...CAD +11K vs +15K prior...AUD +8K vs +6K prior...NZD +17K vs +16K prior...Divergent policy paths from the ECB and Fed continue to show up in the CFTC....Rate differentials have moved sharply in the US dollar's favour and all....The latter half of the year will narrow that divergence but that's a trade..