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  • Intraday Market Thought: What's Close Enough for MV3?

    by Adam Button | Mar 29, 2019 14:28
    What's Close Enough for MV3? Chart Sterling is off the lows on news that as some Labour MPs said will back PM....Reports that former Brexit minister and Brexiter Dominic Raab will support May&....US personal income and inflation were both weaker than expected and CAD GDP....A new USD trade has been issued moments ago...Friday's vote won't be a full meaningful vote but it will be a....It will likely fail but if it does, the question to ask is: what's close....If she's one vote short it's not going to be the end of this round of....Is that close enough to spark some negotiations and a true MV3? It likely....At the same time, it will depend on the EU because the current extension....The other obstacle is Berkow, the speaker who may not allow a fourth vote....The balance of risks is interesting...Cable touched 1...30 now and if it all falls apart the downside emerges in the 1...25-1...28 range – so call it 5 cents...But first, let's deal with the 200-DMA support near 1...2970...nbsp; The upside upwards of 1...40 – call it 10 cents...There's a big skew there but what are the odds she can get it through?....Offering to resign is the final card she had to play and it looks like it's....However the progression of how we get higher or lower is also interesting...If there is a positive breakthough -- like the DUP supporting her deal -- the....Whereas a negative development is less likely to come on a single headline so..

  • Intraday Market Thought: FX Priorities

    by Adam Button | Jan 24, 2021 15:00
    FX Priorities Chart Let's recap the week's gentle rumblings on FX from policy makers,....nbsp; US Treasury Secretary nominee Janet Yellen said the US would adhere to....Never mind that record-breaking QE is outright manipulation of the bond market....On Thursday, ECB's Lagarde was silent on the euro's direction,....On Friday, USD reversed the week's course to rebound against all major....So what do  we make of the inv H&S in DXY? Below is Friday's....nbsp;....All currencies ended the week higher against the US dollar, but on Friday,....nbsp;....The ECB has been clear that it doesn't want a stronger euro, especially with....This week's ECB decision will be all about the levers it can pull to keep....EUR/USD has risen to 1...21 from 1...06 at the pandemic low and it's near a two-year high...More worrisome for the ECB is that if it rises another 400 pips, it will be at....The US has the ability to easily monetize debt but with eurozone deficit....That leaves policymakers in the bloc with few options in the face of FX....CNH Indication...China has shown it can be bullied by the US on the currency but with a....We have already strarted to see USD/CNH pushing further, while DXY bounced off....nbsp; Ashraf highlighted last week that USDCNH is increasingly serving as parth....nbsp;....Other countries will also have to continue to navigate US currency policy...Switzerland was named a currency manipulator in the latest Treasury....With the presidential inauguration out of the way, we keep an open mind as the....The past four years has certainly taught everyone to be ready for anything.

  • Intraday Market Thought: Inflation Alert, NFP Rethink, GBP Resists

    by Adam Button | May 11, 2021 19:40
    Inflation Alert, NFP Rethink, GBP Resists Chart The Tech wreck made way for the DOW to join the selloff, after reusrging....But yesterday's pro-cyclicals rotation died down, dragging DOW30 and....5% and 0...9% respectively, while USD lost most of its ground gained earlier...Metals are also making a bounce, ahead of Wednesday's crucial US CPI....nbsp; The big miss in non-farm payrolls on Friday led to some soul searching in....Sterling surged on Monday after a middling mandate for Scottish....Subscribers made +300 pips in GBPUSD (see our video for the how and whys....nbsp;....Whether a higher than expectec CPI helps the USD, will depend on the follow-up....But what's many are ignoring is that rising supply-driven inflation does not....nbsp;Do you think inflation will remain muted in Europe? ....Was the soft jobs report a game-changer? The trade on Friday was that it meant....On Monday though, the mood was more that it was a one-off report and that the....That led to a big unwind in the stock and yield moves...The US dollar though hardly bounced...A particularly large move came in cable, which jumped more than 150 pips to the....Some of that was technical as a series of March/April highs gave way but the....Today's Queen's speech also helped boost GBP via improved political....nbsp; ....The SNP and pro-indepenced Greens together got enough votes for a majority....Combine that with ongoing UK vaccinations and reopenings and there....4242 and potentially to back to 2017 levels...CFTC Commitments of Traders....Speculative net futures trader positions as of the close on Tuesday...Net short denoted by - long by....EUR +85K vs +81K prior...GBP +20K vs +29 prior...JPY -41K vs -49K prior...CHF 0K vs -1K prior...CAD +26K vs +16K prior...AUD +1K vs -1K prior...NZD +9K vs +7K prior...Specs are beginning to buy into the Canadian dollar rally and that's no....Friday's Canadian employment report was on the soft side but lockdown....The report prompted Ashraf to trigger longs in GBPCAD on Friday, as stated..

  • Intraday Market Thought: Familiar Tune with a Twist

    by Adam Button | Nov 2, 2021 15:06
    Familiar Tune with a Twist Chart All eyes turn to Wednesday's FOMC statement and Powell's press....Until, then, markets (equities, bonds and cryptos) will do their best to....A series of economic releases on Monday underscored a theme that's....All currencies are down vs USD, with the exception of JPY...Euro rebounded to start the week as the market remains in high anticipation of....WhatsApp Group members got out of the 3rd long in the DAX at 15890, after the....Below is 1 of the 2 charts published on Oct 6th, making the case for the....nbsp;....A comment in the ISM manufacturing report summed up everything about the....The survey itself was a tad stronger than the consensus at 60...4 vs 59...2 expected...Prices paid soared, new orders cooled and customer inventories remain thin...The Markit manufacturing PMIs for the US and Canada underscored the same themes...The question from here is what happens next...We're keeping a keen eye on growing covid cases in China and the potential....At this point, the global supply chain can't survive another blow...Aside from that, the question is whether bottlenecks are getting worse or better...That's not something easily measured as it's been taken for granted....As it limps along we see more reports of companies willing to pass on costs...Perhaps that could unwind later but it's generally something that tends to....The longer it lasts, the more everyone through the chain will want to be....That's the question the market continues to struggle with because it&....What's clear is that markets are losing confidence in central banks and....In some fields, that kind of misstep would prompt a resignation.

  • Article: Leonardo Fibonacci & Gerolamo Cardano

    by Ashraf Laidi | Feb 27, 2021 1:00
    One great Italian mathematician Leonardo Fibonacci told another -- Gerolamo....Here's what should happen.

  • Intraday Market Thought: 69 days vs 70 days

    by Ashraf Laidi | Jan 20, 2022 16:53
    69 days vs 70 days Chart You've already watched this week's video on 11-week cycles in Bitcoin....The daily version of those cycles is in the below chart, showing 69 days last....Combining today's rally in BTC and ETH with the SPX recovery above its 100-....Buy-the-dip justification may grow stronger when adding Nasdaq's bounce....All this sounds great, but more obstacles remain ahead...US 10-year yields having broken above their 200-week MA, such occurence could....Let's keep an eye on the following levels of confluence; 4550 on SPX 40K on....nbsp;....nbsp;  ..

  • Poll: Which of the below do you think is the most appropriate?

    by Admin | Jul 5, 2022 12:03
    Is the US already in a recession? Will July's Fed rate hike be the final..

  • Intraday Market Thought: Is CNH H&S Complete?

    by Ashraf Laidi | Jan 9, 2023 20:49
    On Dec 6th, I posted a chart of the USD/CNH (US dollar vs the Chinese offshore....33 days later, the H&S formation is 95-98% complete after USD fell against....This also coincides with 10% drop in DXY from its highs...There's that "new" saw in FX about USDCNH or USDCNY becoming the....Regardless, 6...78 on USDCNH represents a nearly complete H&S formation...Does that mean USD has bottomed for now? Does its coincide with a USD recovery....What does it portend for any coinciding technicals with gold and indices? ....nbsp;http://ashraflaidi...com/hot-chart/dxy-cnh   Several people are flying to London this....Stay tuned...nbsp; ..

  • Intraday Market Thought: CAD on the Cusp

    by Ashraf Laidi | Jan 11, 2023 16:13
    CAD on the Cusp Chart USDCAD is back down below 1...3500, not quite hitting the final Head and Shoulders target mentioned to our....So what is next for the pair? Last Friday, Canada had a stellar jobs report....See how each USDCAD rebound above the neckline failed to break the right....37 during market selloffs (risk-off)....Any renewed episode of market selling (possibly a strong CPI tomorrow) could....3480/90s...Yet, my position remains unchanged (as it has since Nov 4th)....Will the next phase of USD selling take us to 1...3170? What's so special about 1...3170 apart from it being a H&S target?  Most pertinently, there is....If you want to learn how incorporate interFX and intermarket analysis such as....There will be several fellow traders, a 3-course lunch from The Gherkin....nbsp;..

  • Intraday Market Thought: Saturday is Ashraf's London Event

    by Ashraf Laidi | Jan 7, 2023 9:44
    Saturday is Ashraf's London Event Chart You already know what it's about...No, the event will not be recorded...Find out more below, then decide for yourself to book your spot here...nbsp;..
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