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  • Intraday Market Thought: Tax Plan Follows the Script

    by Adam Button | Apr 26, 2017 22:15
    Tax Plan Follows the Script Chart As we anticipated, the trade was to sell-the-fact on the Trump tax plan...The bulk of currencies finished the day unchanged despite some volatility, the....The Asia-Pacific calendar is quiet as we count down to the ECB...A new USD trade has been posted alongside supproting charts moments ago...اليورو في قيادة المؤشرات (للمشتركين فقط)....Yesterday we wrote about the Trump trading plan: to react to the first....The market followed the script on Wednesday as he delivered his long-....As anticipated, it wasn't a plan...It was a one-page, bullet point draft of a dozen principles that he hopes to....It mirrored his campaign pledged and much of it was leaked...The market's response was to unwind a portion of the rally in risk assets....USD/JPY sagged 70 pips to 111...00...The US dollar fell by a smaller margin elsewhere and the S&P 500 gave up an....We will look for more opportunities to trade Trump in the future...One continues to be CAD and MXN...The White House will likely announce its intention to pull out of NAFTA in the....The Mexican peso was especially hit hard because it would leave the nations....Canada would fall back on the 1987 FTA if no new deal is reached, and that'....But if it's similar to NAFTA, Trump could hate it as well...Certainly the door is now open to a radically different trading relationship....nbsp;....USD/CAD didn't break Tuesday's high on the news but it's nearby and....3600 is a bullish technical signal...The pair didn't break higher in part because Canadian Feb retail sales ex-....Also notable for the pair is that oil couldn't hang onto a gain despite a....Also on the commodity front, AUD/USD was cut down on yesterday's CPI report...In US trading, it broke below the April lows and that could set up more....The only possible catalyst in today's Asia-Pac session is Q1 import/export....The consensus on imports is -0...5% and exports is +8...0%....The bigger story will come Thursday with the ECB decision...Sources reports suggest references to downside risks will be removed and that..

  • Intraday Market Thought: Macron Burns Sceptics by 36% Margin

    by Adam Button | May 7, 2017 22:43
    Macron Burns Sceptics by 36% Margin Chart France elected Emmanuel Macron President with a larger-than-anticipated margin....1000...The euro was also the best performer last week while the yen lagged...CFTC positions showed narrowing GBP shorts...After closing our EURUSD long at a profit on Friday, we opened a new long....With most votes counted, Macron leads the election with more than 64% compared....His victory underscores how markets and many commentators failed to understand....It's also a reminder that while the political sands are shifting globally,....His win was no surprise although email leaks late Friday added some angst...There was always the minute risk of a shock win for Le Pen but more than....At times like this, markets often focus on the message from the incoming....She said her party must reinvent itself and there is talk that will start with a....But more important was a hint of what's to come from her father, who was....He said her message was undermined by threats to quit the euro and EU...If he's right (and if he's reading the political mood correctly)....That will leave the currency far less vulnerable in future elections...In the short term, it's a better potential reason to buy the euro than....Commitments of Traders....Speculative net futures trader positions as of the close on Tuesday...Net short denoted by - long by....EUR -2K vs -21K prior...GBP -81K vs -91K prior...JPY -23 vs -27K prior...CHF -18K vs -17K prior...CAD -48K vs -43K prior...AUD +43K vs +43K prior...NZD -12K vs -15K prior....The market continued to pile into Canadian shorts through Tuesday but the....Meanwhile, the exodus from cable shorts continues as it flirts with 1...30.

  • Intraday Market Thought: Fed Silence Speaks to June Hike

    by Adam Button | Jun 5, 2017 10:17
    Fed Silence Speaks to June Hike Chart Fed silence speaks to the likelihood of a hike on June 14 despite a....Last week the New Zealand dollar was the top performer while the Canadian dollar....The week begins with survey and inflation data...CFTC data showed euro net longs at a six-year high...Aussie is the day's winner after Gulf nations and Egypt break ties with....A new ICM poll for the Guardian shows Conservatives at 45%, Labour at 34%....UK May services slowed to 53...8 from 55...8...Eurozone final Apri services services PMI was at 56...3 from 56...4 in March...China's Caixin services PMI edged up to 52...8 in MAY from 51...5 in April...The Fed has now entered its blackout phase ahead of the FOMC decision...That means there will be no official communication before the statement that....It's important because official passed up opportunities to alter....FOMC members would know that markets are pricing in an 85% probability of a hike....So why did the dollar weaken after non-farm payrolls? The jobs headline was....The only positive sign was the drop in unemployment but that was entirely due....What's happened is that the market has cut the chance of another hike in....The market's base case is now that the Fed will hike but offer a more....In terms of economic data, it's another busy week ahead with the ECB....CFTC Commitments of Traders....Speculative net futures trader positions as of the close on Tuesday...Net short denoted by - long by....EUR +73K vs +65K prior...GBP -30K vs -24K prior...JPY -52K vs -52K prior...CHF -19K vs -20K prior...CAD -98K vs -99K prior...AUD +3K vs +3K prior...NZD -5K vs -9K prior....Specs are feeling downright giddy about the euro's future prospects...EUR/USD finished on Friday at the highs of the day and at the best levels in 7....nbsp;..

  • Intraday Market Thought: Is Tax Reform Priced in?

    by Adam Button | Sep 28, 2017 22:22
    Is Tax Reform Priced in? Chart The US dollar struggled to maintain momentum on the heels of the tax....NZD was the top performer while USD lagged...Japanese CPI is due later...Friday's US core PCE will be key...5 new charts have been posted to subscribers backing the ongoing DAX30....The chart below is one them...The greenback has been beaten down for most of the year and finally looks....The tax proposal gave the dollar a lift Wednesday and sparked a sharp selloff in....That was despite a revision higher in Q2 GDP to 3...1% from 3...0%, a small-than-expected good trade deficit and wholesale inventories for....0% compared to a 0...4% decline expected...That's all good news but the USD dollar fell around a half-cent across....USD/JPY slowly slid to 112...24 from as high as 113...20 in Asian trading...Both EUR/USD and USD/JPY formed minor two-day double bottoms before the....9 months of disappointment for USD bulls is hard to shake off...Friday's critical PCE report will be a major factor in upcoming Fed....The bigger story, however, has to be taxes...The numbers and rates that the administration is floating would be a....The big question regarding tax reform is: What's priced in? Given the....Perhaps no one wants to bet on Congress and risk another brutal disappointment...We also have to consider the alternative: That a tax cut has already been priced....Maybe now the market is having doubts because there are so many barriers to a....It's tough to believe it's priced in but it's also tough to....Perhaps month end flows are skewing the signals...We will watch closely in the week ahead...In the meantime, Japan is out with a pair of key reports to close the week...Both CPI and employment data are due at 2330 GMT...Even with a rise in CPI to 0...6% (as expected) we struggle to see a shift from the BOJ any time soon.

  • Intraday Market Thought: Yen, Yields Aussie & Loonie

    by Ashraf Laidi | Jan 16, 2018 17:57
    Yen, Yields Aussie & Loonie Chart In this video for GKFX, I examine the persistent divergence between yen pairs....I also looking at tonight's Australia jobs figures and Wednesday'....Full Video.

  • Intraday Market Thought: Tuesday's pre Fed/ECB webinar

    by Ashraf Laidi | Jun 8, 2018 11:27
    Tuesday's pre Fed/ECB webinar Chart Join me for Tuesday's webinar with Tickmill at 15:00 London Time, 22:00....Full details.

  • Intraday Market Thought: Indices Hit by Fresh Trade Retaliation

    by Ashraf Laidi | Jun 19, 2018 8:49
    Indices Hit by Fresh Trade Retaliation Chart Global equity indices dip further into the red, led by US futures on Donald....The news came less than a week after the US and China imposed $50bn of tariffs....USDJPY has fallen below 110 as the yen rallies against all currencies, followed....All other currencies are weaker against the US dollar, with AUD at the bottom....Yesterday's Premium video includes new trades in indices...AUDUSD and EURJPY were both stopped out.

  • Hot-Chart: ECB Scenarios

    by Ashraf Laidi | Jul 26, 2018 11:51
    ECB Scenarios Chart The ECB decision is at 1145 GMT (12:45 London), but it's a foregone....Instead, focus on messaging and press conference 45 mins later...Focus on any rewording of the calendar guidance...Draghi is in a tough spot as he tries to retain an upbeat stance on the economy....In the past he has been a masterful messenger, but the tweaking and....If he can navigate the choppy waters, the underlying bias may be toward euro..

  • Intraday Market Thought: The Mid-Term Dilemma

    by Adam Button | Nov 6, 2018 13:53
    The Mid-Term Dilemma Chart Americans head to the polls late on Tuesday in a vote that could lead to....The British pound is the top performer for the 2nd consecutive day, while the....The video for Premium subscribers previewing the various elections....Rules of Thumb?....There are generally two rules of thumb for traders during elections: i) the....Traders aiming to capitalize on volatility emerging on what are believed....Most importantly, remember to stay relatively small....The US midterm elections are primarily about the House of Representatives, with....That would result in a deadlock and a series of investigations that would....Still, every election seems like a potential disaster in the leadup and....Yet rules of thumb don't always work...Italy earlier this year is a good example...The MIB index initially climbed 9% in the eight weeks after the election but....Beware of November 2016 Moment....What's especially top-of-mind on the US vote is the results of the 2016....US futures initially crumbled on the shock of Trump's win only to begin a....Some said the reason to the subsequent rebound was the Trump's acceptance....By the same token, traders must watch not only the results, which will trickle....Could market participants anticipate a similar playbook? If that is so, then a....Fundamentally, Trump is promising another tax cut so there's some....On the other hand, Democrats holding the House are much more likely to curb a....As for the US dollar, a Democrat win in the House would certainly curb Trump'....While it's tempting to project certainty, the trade may be to chase the....We will also be listening carefully to the responses from Trump, Democrats and..

  • Intraday Market Thought: Now for the Hard Part

    by Ashraf Laidi | Oct 4, 2019 17:02
    Now that each of our 3 indices trades hit their final target this week (DOW30,....The next 3 weeks will be dominated by data-watching and volatility following....Some say we could retest 2967-70 on the SPX, others are focusing on 26570s on....The urgency for an October rate cut (raised by ISMs) was removed by today'....The urgency for a cut was removed, but the possibility very much remains...At this point, a violent surge in volatility & resurfacing trade....Technically, the charts below (from Sep 26) are a reminder that technicals do....So far, we have 2 existing Premium Insights trades.
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