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  • Intraday Market Thought: Tuesday's pre Fed/ECB webinar

    by Ashraf Laidi | Jun 8, 2018 11:27
    Tuesday's pre Fed/ECB webinar Chart Join me for Tuesday's webinar with Tickmill at 15:00 London Time, 22:00....Full details.
  • Intraday Market Thought: Indices Hit by Fresh Trade Retaliation

    by Ashraf Laidi | Jun 19, 2018 8:49
    Indices Hit by Fresh Trade Retaliation Chart Global equity indices dip further into the red, led by US futures on Donald....The news came less than a week after the US and China imposed $50bn of tariffs....USDJPY has fallen below 110 as the yen rallies against all currencies, followed....All other currencies are weaker against the US dollar, with AUD at the bottom....Yesterday's Premium video includes new trades in indices...AUDUSD and EURJPY were both stopped out.
  • Hot-Chart: ECB Scenarios

    by Ashraf Laidi | Jul 26, 2018 11:51
    ECB Scenarios Chart The ECB decision is at 1145 GMT (12:45 London), but it's a foregone....Instead, focus on messaging and press conference 45 mins later...Focus on any rewording of the calendar guidance...Draghi is in a tough spot as he tries to retain an upbeat stance on the economy....In the past he has been a masterful messenger, but the tweaking and....If he can navigate the choppy waters, the underlying bias may be toward euro..
  • Intraday Market Thought: The Mid-Term Dilemma

    by Adam Button | Nov 6, 2018 13:53
    The Mid-Term Dilemma Chart Americans head to the polls late on Tuesday in a vote that could lead to....The British pound is the top performer for the 2nd consecutive day, while the....The video for Premium subscribers previewing the various elections....Rules of Thumb?....There are generally two rules of thumb for traders during elections: i) the....Traders aiming to capitalize on volatility emerging on what are believed....Most importantly, remember to stay relatively small....The US midterm elections are primarily about the House of Representatives, with....That would result in a deadlock and a series of investigations that would....Still, every election seems like a potential disaster in the leadup and....Yet rules of thumb don't always work...Italy earlier this year is a good example...The MIB index initially climbed 9% in the eight weeks after the election but....Beware of November 2016 Moment....What's especially top-of-mind on the US vote is the results of the 2016....US futures initially crumbled on the shock of Trump's win only to begin a....Some said the reason to the subsequent rebound was the Trump's acceptance....By the same token, traders must watch not only the results, which will trickle....Could market participants anticipate a similar playbook? If that is so, then a....Fundamentally, Trump is promising another tax cut so there's some....On the other hand, Democrats holding the House are much more likely to curb a....As for the US dollar, a Democrat win in the House would certainly curb Trump'....While it's tempting to project certainty, the trade may be to chase the....We will also be listening carefully to the responses from Trump, Democrats and..
  • Intraday Market Thought: Now for the Hard Part

    by Ashraf Laidi | Oct 4, 2019 17:02
    Now that each of our 3 indices trades hit their final target this week (DOW30,....The next 3 weeks will be dominated by data-watching and volatility following....Some say we could retest 2967-70 on the SPX, others are focusing on 26570s on....The urgency for an October rate cut (raised by ISMs) was removed by today'....The urgency for a cut was removed, but the possibility very much remains...At this point, a violent surge in volatility & resurfacing trade....Technically, the charts below (from Sep 26) are a reminder that technicals do....So far, we have 2 existing Premium Insights trades.
  • Intraday Market Thought: Join me TODAY for Traderfest2020

    by Ashraf Laidi | Mar 13, 2020 17:50
    Join me TODAY for Traderfest2020  Chart Please join me for an invaluable trading webinar on Saturday, March 14, 2020 at....nbsp; Find out our best trade ideas for these volatile markets...Anything on your mind? Key technicals in FX and metals, the Corona pandemic....Learn battle-tested trading strategies...Get free MT4/MT5 trading tools...This is a MUST SEE trading education event of the year...and it's totally FREE...Don't worry if you can't attend...Register here and you will get a video recording of the whole event...Register now....See you tomorrow......
  • Intraday Market Thought: Escape Velocity

    by Adam Button | Jan 13, 2021 13:13
    Escape Velocity Chart The US dollar re-emerges following an abruptly drop Tuesday as Treasury yields....The quick loss of dollar altitude raises questions about the sustainability of....Fed talk continues to dominate the schedule...The 2-way EURUSD trade for WhatsApp Broadcast Group members mentioned on....nbsp; The chart below conveys this morning's quick short trade on....nbsp;....We have been waiting for a day of flat Treasury yields to see how the dollar....Early signs aren't encouraging for dollar bulls as it slumped across the....Maybe that was a simple retracement after a six-day move but maybe it was a....We liken it to a launching rocket that needs incredible amounts of fuel to rise....Rising bond yields have been the fuel since the Georgia runoffs but they....For its part, Fed talk continues to be a modest tailwind...Comments continue to focus around better economic prospects and tapering...We will hear from Brainard and Clarida Wednesday but all the chatter about more....We will continue to keep a close eye on the dollar in the day ahead, along with....If this is it for the dollar bounce, it's a feeble one even by the..
  • Intraday Market Thought: Central Bank Schism Appears

    by Adam Button | Mar 2, 2021 17:00
    The currency market may soon be split between central banks who will tolerate....The Australian dollar was the top performer on Monday while the Swiss....Watch out for comments from Brainard in the day ahead...The ECB's Villeroy had the clearest response yet to the turmoil in the bond....He said much of the recent rise in yields is unwarranted and that the ECB....Those comments helped to lower eurozone sovereign yields after they earlier....An ECB spokesman was forced to explain that drop in QE to 12B from 17B as a....The Villeroy comments also helped to spur risk assets but some of that move....He said that much of the recent rise in yields “seems to be” vaccine....rdquo;....Rates hit session highs after that and helped to lift USD/JPY...However the moves were largely contained to bonds and the equity market ignored....Ultimately, the tension will need a resolution and we need a response from a....Brainard speaks on the economic outlook at 1800 GMT and as one of the biggest....If so, it will validate the rebounds in equities and the bounce in commodity....If not – particularly if she sends a similar message to Barkin – the....That kind of commentary would also put the Fed at odds with the ECB, RBA and....It should help to lift the dollar against that duo and more.
  • Intraday Market Thought: RBA & Boris Johnson Reversal from Covid

    by Adam Button | Sep 7, 2021 14:12
    RBA & Boris Johnson Reversal from Covid  Chart Aussie fell across the board after the RBA confirmed what many had suspected-....GBP extends selloff after PM Johnson announcing hikes on payroll and....Metals and Nasdaq futures are down as bond yields rally on the way back from....The US dollar is up against all major 7 currencies (AUD, CAD, GBP, NZD, JPY, EUR,....nbsp;....The best-laid plans in all walks of life have been derailed by covid in the past....This is the case for Boris Johnson's tax policy and the RBA's monetary....The latter had explicitly outlined a taper, but lockdowns with no end are....RBA QE is running at $5 billion per week and a month ago there was a strong....10 of 16 economists told Bloomberg they were expecting a delay in the taper...There was uncertainty after stronger than expected employment figures, but....Compounding the downside risk is the rapid recent run-up and potential for....Longs in EURGBP, USDCAD and shorts in AUDJPY appear to be sensibe trading....nbsp; ..
  • Intraday Market Thought: CAD Conundrum

    by Adam Button | Jan 9, 2017 23:37
    CAD Conundrum Chart The fundamental picture in Canada is looking increasingly rosy but the loonie....The yen was the top performer on Monday while the pound lagged...Japan returns from holiday but Chinese and Australian data will be the focus...Ashraf told BNN how Canadian companies are surviving CAD strength in today'....1 CAD remains in progress in the Premium Insights...The Bank of Canada released its quarter Business Outlook Survey on Monday and it....The slow-burning commodity bust left Canada vulnerable but the government....The loonie didn't get much attention in 2016 but it was the top G10....If the optimism in the BOC survey translates into action, more of those....The survey showed hiring, investment intentions and optimism about future....Combine that with Friday's Canadian employment report that showed 54K new....The problem with betting on CAD is that its future depends on things beyond....The first is oil, which fell 4% on Monday on worries about rising North....The fall in WTI below $52 takes out an important short-term technical support...The other vulnerability is just South of its border where the President-elect is....Despite Canada's commodity status, it also relies heavily on manufacturing....Canada's press reports that senior officials in Trump's team, including....If the US decides to re-open NAFTA, the ensuing uncertainty might be something....In the shorter term, Asia-Pacific traders will be focused on Australian....nbsp; AUD/USD has gained in four of the past five days including a bullish....Retail sales are due at 0030 GMT and forecast to rise 0...4% m/m...Chinese CPI is due an hour later and expected to climb 2...2% y/y, down from 2...3%....That's a sweet spot for the PBOC and Chinese economy but we continue to keep..