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  • Intraday Market Thought: Central Bank Schism Appears

    by Adam Button | Mar 2, 2021 17:00
    The currency market may soon be split between central banks who will tolerate....The Australian dollar was the top performer on Monday while the Swiss....Watch out for comments from Brainard in the day ahead...The ECB's Villeroy had the clearest response yet to the turmoil in the bond....He said much of the recent rise in yields is unwarranted and that the ECB....Those comments helped to lower eurozone sovereign yields after they earlier....An ECB spokesman was forced to explain that drop in QE to 12B from 17B as a....The Villeroy comments also helped to spur risk assets but some of that move....He said that much of the recent rise in yields “seems to be” vaccine....rdquo;....Rates hit session highs after that and helped to lift USD/JPY...However the moves were largely contained to bonds and the equity market ignored....Ultimately, the tension will need a resolution and we need a response from a....Brainard speaks on the economic outlook at 1800 GMT and as one of the biggest....If so, it will validate the rebounds in equities and the bounce in commodity....If not – particularly if she sends a similar message to Barkin – the....That kind of commentary would also put the Fed at odds with the ECB, RBA and....It should help to lift the dollar against that duo and more.

  • Intraday Market Thought: RBA & Boris Johnson Reversal from Covid

    by Adam Button | Sep 7, 2021 14:12
    RBA & Boris Johnson Reversal from Covid Chart Aussie fell across the board after the RBA confirmed what many had suspected-....GBP extends selloff after PM Johnson announcing hikes on payroll and....Metals and Nasdaq futures are down as bond yields rally on the way back from....The US dollar is up against all major 7 currencies (AUD, CAD, GBP, NZD, JPY, EUR,....nbsp;....The best-laid plans in all walks of life have been derailed by covid in the past....This is the case for Boris Johnson's tax policy and the RBA's monetary....The latter had explicitly outlined a taper, but lockdowns with no end are....RBA QE is running at $5 billion per week and a month ago there was a strong....10 of 16 economists told Bloomberg they were expecting a delay in the taper...There was uncertainty after stronger than expected employment figures, but....Compounding the downside risk is the rapid recent run-up and potential for....Longs in EURGBP, USDCAD and shorts in AUDJPY appear to be sensibe trading....nbsp; ..

  • Intraday Market Thought: CAD Conundrum

    by Adam Button | Jan 9, 2017 23:37
    CAD Conundrum Chart The fundamental picture in Canada is looking increasingly rosy but the loonie....The yen was the top performer on Monday while the pound lagged...Japan returns from holiday but Chinese and Australian data will be the focus...Ashraf told BNN how Canadian companies are surviving CAD strength in today'....1 CAD remains in progress in the Premium Insights...The Bank of Canada released its quarter Business Outlook Survey on Monday and it....The slow-burning commodity bust left Canada vulnerable but the government....The loonie didn't get much attention in 2016 but it was the top G10....If the optimism in the BOC survey translates into action, more of those....The survey showed hiring, investment intentions and optimism about future....Combine that with Friday's Canadian employment report that showed 54K new....The problem with betting on CAD is that its future depends on things beyond....The first is oil, which fell 4% on Monday on worries about rising North....The fall in WTI below $52 takes out an important short-term technical support...The other vulnerability is just South of its border where the President-elect is....Despite Canada's commodity status, it also relies heavily on manufacturing....Canada's press reports that senior officials in Trump's team, including....If the US decides to re-open NAFTA, the ensuing uncertainty might be something....In the shorter term, Asia-Pacific traders will be focused on Australian....nbsp; AUD/USD has gained in four of the past five days including a bullish....Retail sales are due at 0030 GMT and forecast to rise 0...4% m/m...Chinese CPI is due an hour later and expected to climb 2...2% y/y, down from 2...3%....That's a sweet spot for the PBOC and Chinese economy but we continue to keep..

  • Intraday Market Thought: GBP & Silver Separated at Birth

    by Ashraf Laidi | Feb 10, 2022 17:35
    GBP & Silver Separated at Birth Chart Another blowout US CPI report triggers another false reaction in metals...5 months ago, gold would plummet $50 on the mere mention of Fed tapering...Today, gold rallies alongside silver despite a 70% chance of a 50-bp rate....Gold's ability to survive through the tightening landscape (especially....We notified our WhatsApp Broadcast subscribers yesterday (see below the GBP....nbsp;....The other thing I want to highlight is the similarity between daily charts of....I reiterated to our WGP since Jan 27 that I remained long GBPUSD, as long as....3350 held up...And it did just that before mounting a solid recovery ahead/after the BoE....Our bullishness in gold and silver was maintained as long as XAUXAG failed the....It is no longer a secret that I emphasized the importance of gold/silver....nbsp;..

  • Intraday Market Thought: 2023 Outlook Binge & Sector Dive

    by Ashraf Laidi | Jan 4, 2023 14:12
    2023 Outlook Binge & Sector Dive Chart Now that you've all binged on those “2023 investment outlooks”....This does not mean all technology shares are out...You cannot group Microsoft with Facebook, or Tesla with Netflix...2022 was clearly the worst year for equity indices since 2008 according to....But it's increasingly crucial to focus on sector performance and....The larger (central) chart focuses on sector performance since Jan 3rd 2021,....The more challenging period is that of 2022 (smaller chart on the left), where....nbsp;....Members of our WhatsApp Broadcast Group (WBG) were guided through a difficult....07 in May, or long gold at 1800 in August...nbsp;....But the real challenge is how to get back up when you're confidence is....Telling the WBG (as well as Dubai gold dealers on October 18-19th) that gold....nbsp;....Reiterating to Group members that EURUSD will recover (and not revisit 0...99) because of unique technical developments in the EUR trade weighted....Using tools such as the 10-yr/3mth yield spread in this video as harbingers of....Selecting the right stocks in the right time will be added to our WBG offering....nbsp;..

  • Intraday Market Thought: Revisions Slowing the Slowdown

    by Ashraf Laidi | Apr 7, 2023 15:52
    Revisions Slowing the Slowdown Chart Today's release of US March jobs report may contain something for....The 236K print in NFP hit the weakest level since December 2020 and the 4...2% print in average hourly earnings y/y was the lowest since June 2021...nbsp;....Slowing the Slowdown....The pullback in unemployment rate should be temporary...nbsp;Here is why: Accelerating job layoffs as well as the latest upward....Layoffs announcements do not translate to an immediate loss of jobs as it takes....nbsp;Employers will then have to pay severance pay, which could take another....Only then, will laid off workers be able to file for unemployment benefits....All of this reinforces the reality of the delay between announcing layoffs and....nbsp;....Don't forget the other economic reality-- Companies decide to cut jobs....e...well after the slowdown emerges in aggregate demand and manufacturing/....Jobless claims could go from +220K to +270K within 2-3 weeks --just as the....5% to 4...0% by end of Q2...And guess what? The pace of such developments will be rocky thanks to the....Economic data tend to deteriorate in a non-linear fashion...Yesterday was a case in point—jobless claims appeared to have fallen,....This is a typical aspect of evolving recessionary data—especially when....Things tend to “happen fast” in markets, while macro developments....00% and gold breaks $2070...nbsp;....nbsp;..

  • Intraday Market Thought: Trend vs Trendline: Gold, DXY, Yields

    by Ashraf Laidi | Jun 22, 2023 14:41
    Trend vs Trendline: Gold, DXY, Yields Chart Moving the goal posts can be a dangerous endeavor in various fields--health,....In technical analysis, trendlines are defined as identifying the general....The more points, the more relevant the trendline...But where do you draw the line between trendlines and trends? ....The chart below highlights the generally sensible relationship between rising....ldquo;Ashraf, did you say rising trendline in gold?? Ive been long gold....Yes so am I and so have I...Short-term traders long gold are suffering the 5% decline in bullion from....5% YTD is bad, while -7% from the year highs is worse...The opposite holds true for 10-yr yields, which have jumped 16% from their March....Gold traders have their eyes fixated on the 3...83/4% level, which is not only the year's open but also the top of the....Any print above 3...90% would trigger an ugly cascade of sell orders across metals and indices....nbsp;....How is this all relevant to those with longs in metals? Gold can remain in its....This requires support from silver upholding 21...80/90 and copper doing the same at 7880...Our intermetals frameworks also examines platinum and real yields...While this can be a dangerous example of shifting the goal posts and redefining....nbsp;....For a recent real-life example of this approach, take a look at how Gold's....Ive mentioned this repeatedly in my recent seminars/webinars and made a it a....nbsp;....nbsp;..

  • Intraday Market Thought: Never Heard of it Therefore it ain't Important

    by Ashraf Laidi | Oct 3, 2023 19:48
    Never Heard of it Therefore it ain't Important Chart So you trade currencies? Dabble in indices, speculate in gold or scalp oil?....I also mentioned to the Group how it moved markets the last time it was....nbsp; What happened after the report was history...I will not mention on here my repeated warnings to the Group this week and last....Finally, the Nasdaq100 targets were just some of the targets hit...nbsp;....nbsp;....You can spend hours in trading chatrooms, listening to experts and peers to feel....But beyond NFP and FOMC, there is an ocean of developments, relationships,....e...not everything is obvious or apparent...You need consistency in guidance and alerts throughout the trading day...If you have made it all the way to the end of these 4 paragraphs, then it means....All you need is 5 mins to watch what the WBG is about and how it's been....5x so it goes faster...And the bit about the BoJ in 4:50 mins...nbsp;....nbsp;..

  • Intraday Market Thought: Why the Dow30 Now?

    by Ashraf Laidi | Feb 13, 2024 18:11
    Why the Dow30 Now? Chart Anyone who is/was a member of the WhatsApp Bdcast Group, would know I....I usually pick the Nasdaq100 or SPX500...But over the past 3 weeks, I'd been warning the Group to prepare for....We eventually pulled the trigger last week and we're still in the trade...So why the Dow30 this time? We cited 5 reasons, some of which are listed below:....1...The Dow Theory and the lack of confirmation in the Dow Transportation....A video was published on this here...nbsp;  ....2...DOW30 contains none of the AI/microchip juggernauts of the Nasdaq100 such as....nbsp;....3...The DOW30, however, does contain Apple, which makes up about 8% of the index,....Apple and Netflix are down 0...2% and 26% year-to-date respectively...nbsp;....4...DOW30 likes big numbers and 38900s is equal to 20% rise from the October low...Monday's high of 38927 is nearly exactly equal to the 38915 generational....Coincidences? The USA is far from descending into a dark decade or semi....nbsp;....With regards to the VIX, see the above chart how it's setting to break....nbsp; A close above 15, would mean more trouble for stocks...There are other more advanced quantitative analysis requiring further....And dont forget February is the 2nd worst month of the stock market over the....nbsp; ..

  • Intraday Market Thought: Poloz Strikes Again, but CAD doesn't Mean USDCAD

    by Ashraf Laidi | Mar 18, 2014 19:14
    CAD has shown some sessions recently but its knack to increasingly become the....Many traders have wrongfully equated CAD with USDCAD, which is not necessarily....Today's remarks from Bank of Canada governor Poloz giving soft guidance over....We highlighted in our “FxPerformance Special” how the....While attention is on USD and GBP ahead of tomorrow's FOMC and UK Budget, we....AUDUSD long from Feb 24 at 0...8980 awaits final 0...9140.
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