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  • Intraday Market Thought: GBP & Silver Separated at Birth

    by Ashraf Laidi | Feb 10, 2022 17:35
    GBP & Silver Separated at Birth Chart Another blowout US CPI report triggers another false reaction in metals...5 months ago, gold would plummet $50 on the mere mention of Fed tapering...Today, gold rallies alongside silver despite a 70% chance of a 50-bp rate....Gold's ability to survive through the tightening landscape (especially....We notified our WhatsApp Broadcast subscribers yesterday (see below the GBP....nbsp;....The other thing I want to highlight is the similarity between daily charts of....I reiterated to our WGP since Jan 27 that I remained long GBPUSD, as long as....3350 held up...And it did just that before mounting a solid recovery ahead/after the BoE....Our bullishness in gold and silver was maintained as long as XAUXAG failed the....It is no longer a secret that I emphasized the importance of gold/silver....nbsp;..

  • Intraday Market Thought: 2023 Outlook Binge & Sector Dive

    by Ashraf Laidi | Jan 4, 2023 14:12
    2023 Outlook Binge & Sector Dive Chart Now that you've all binged on those “2023 investment outlooks”....This does not mean all technology shares are out...You cannot group Microsoft with Facebook, or Tesla with Netflix...2022 was clearly the worst year for equity indices since 2008 according to....But it's increasingly crucial to focus on sector performance and....The larger (central) chart focuses on sector performance since Jan 3rd 2021,....The more challenging period is that of 2022 (smaller chart on the left), where....nbsp;....Members of our WhatsApp Broadcast Group (WBG) were guided through a difficult....07 in May, or long gold at 1800 in August...nbsp;....But the real challenge is how to get back up when you're confidence is....Telling the WBG (as well as Dubai gold dealers on October 18-19th) that gold....nbsp;....Reiterating to Group members that EURUSD will recover (and not revisit 0...99) because of unique technical developments in the EUR trade weighted....Using tools such as the 10-yr/3mth yield spread in this video as harbingers of....Selecting the right stocks in the right time will be added to our WBG offering....nbsp;..

  • Intraday Market Thought: Revisions Slowing the Slowdown

    by Ashraf Laidi | Apr 7, 2023 15:52
    Revisions Slowing the Slowdown Chart Today's release of US March jobs report may contain something for....The 236K print in NFP hit the weakest level since December 2020 and the 4...2% print in average hourly earnings y/y was the lowest since June 2021...nbsp;....Slowing the Slowdown....The pullback in unemployment rate should be temporary...nbsp;Here is why: Accelerating job layoffs as well as the latest upward....Layoffs announcements do not translate to an immediate loss of jobs as it takes....nbsp;Employers will then have to pay severance pay, which could take another....Only then, will laid off workers be able to file for unemployment benefits....All of this reinforces the reality of the delay between announcing layoffs and....nbsp;....Don't forget the other economic reality-- Companies decide to cut jobs....e...well after the slowdown emerges in aggregate demand and manufacturing/....Jobless claims could go from +220K to +270K within 2-3 weeks --just as the....5% to 4...0% by end of Q2...And guess what? The pace of such developments will be rocky thanks to the....Economic data tend to deteriorate in a non-linear fashion...Yesterday was a case in point—jobless claims appeared to have fallen,....This is a typical aspect of evolving recessionary data—especially when....Things tend to “happen fast” in markets, while macro developments....00% and gold breaks $2070...nbsp;....nbsp;..

  • Intraday Market Thought: Trend vs Trendline: Gold, DXY, Yields

    by Ashraf Laidi | Jun 22, 2023 14:41
    Trend vs Trendline: Gold, DXY, Yields Chart Moving the goal posts can be a dangerous endeavor in various fields--health,....In technical analysis, trendlines are defined as identifying the general....The more points, the more relevant the trendline...But where do you draw the line between trendlines and trends? ....The chart below highlights the generally sensible relationship between rising....ldquo;Ashraf, did you say rising trendline in gold?? Ive been long gold....Yes so am I and so have I...Short-term traders long gold are suffering the 5% decline in bullion from....5% YTD is bad, while -7% from the year highs is worse...The opposite holds true for 10-yr yields, which have jumped 16% from their March....Gold traders have their eyes fixated on the 3...83/4% level, which is not only the year's open but also the top of the....Any print above 3...90% would trigger an ugly cascade of sell orders across metals and indices....nbsp;....How is this all relevant to those with longs in metals? Gold can remain in its....This requires support from silver upholding 21...80/90 and copper doing the same at 7880...Our intermetals frameworks also examines platinum and real yields...While this can be a dangerous example of shifting the goal posts and redefining....nbsp;....For a recent real-life example of this approach, take a look at how Gold's....Ive mentioned this repeatedly in my recent seminars/webinars and made a it a....nbsp;....nbsp;..

  • Intraday Market Thought: Never Heard of it Therefore it ain't Important

    by Ashraf Laidi | Oct 3, 2023 19:48
    Never Heard of it Therefore it ain't Important Chart So you trade currencies? Dabble in indices, speculate in gold or scalp oil?....I also mentioned to the Group how it moved markets the last time it was....nbsp; What happened after the report was history...I will not mention on here my repeated warnings to the Group this week and last....Finally, the Nasdaq100 targets were just some of the targets hit...nbsp;....nbsp;....You can spend hours in trading chatrooms, listening to experts and peers to feel....But beyond NFP and FOMC, there is an ocean of developments, relationships,....e...not everything is obvious or apparent...You need consistency in guidance and alerts throughout the trading day...If you have made it all the way to the end of these 4 paragraphs, then it means....All you need is 5 mins to watch what the WBG is about and how it's been....5x so it goes faster...And the bit about the BoJ in 4:50 mins...nbsp;....nbsp;..

  • Intraday Market Thought: Why the Dow30 Now?

    by Ashraf Laidi | Feb 13, 2024 18:11
    Why the Dow30 Now? Chart Anyone who is/was a member of the WhatsApp Bdcast Group, would know I....I usually pick the Nasdaq100 or SPX500...But over the past 3 weeks, I'd been warning the Group to prepare for....We eventually pulled the trigger last week and we're still in the trade...So why the Dow30 this time? We cited 5 reasons, some of which are listed below:....1...The Dow Theory and the lack of confirmation in the Dow Transportation....A video was published on this here...nbsp;  ....2...DOW30 contains none of the AI/microchip juggernauts of the Nasdaq100 such as....nbsp;....3...The DOW30, however, does contain Apple, which makes up about 8% of the index,....Apple and Netflix are down 0...2% and 26% year-to-date respectively...nbsp;....4...DOW30 likes big numbers and 38900s is equal to 20% rise from the October low...Monday's high of 38927 is nearly exactly equal to the 38915 generational....Coincidences? The USA is far from descending into a dark decade or semi....nbsp;....With regards to the VIX, see the above chart how it's setting to break....nbsp; A close above 15, would mean more trouble for stocks...There are other more advanced quantitative analysis requiring further....And dont forget February is the 2nd worst month of the stock market over the....nbsp; ..

  • Intraday Market Thought: Poloz Strikes Again, but CAD doesn't Mean USDCAD

    by Ashraf Laidi | Mar 18, 2014 19:14
    CAD has shown some sessions recently but its knack to increasingly become the....Many traders have wrongfully equated CAD with USDCAD, which is not necessarily....Today's remarks from Bank of Canada governor Poloz giving soft guidance over....We highlighted in our “FxPerformance Special” how the....While attention is on USD and GBP ahead of tomorrow's FOMC and UK Budget, we....AUDUSD long from Feb 24 at 0...8980 awaits final 0...9140.

  • Intraday Market Thought: Ahead of Tomorrow's Key UK Data

    by Ashraf Laidi | Sep 16, 2014 20:31
    GBP traders preparing for Thursday's Scottish independence referendum will....These will be followed by Thursday's release of Aug retail sales...Tomorrow's jobs figures will likely be dominated by the earnings figure,....If we mentioned each single “If and but” of this week's UK....Ahead of these events, we issued a new GBP trade for our Premium Insights..

  • Intraday Market Thought: Lala Land FX Assumptions

    by Ashraf Laidi | Jan 27, 2017 10:44
    Lala Land FX Assumptions Chart The notion that Trump's planned protectionist measures (tariffs and....nbsp;  We're not in the 1980s or 1990s when US trading partners....Regarding the chart below: Yes, there were other factors driving the USD in....nbsp; But US trade actions are no longer going unanswered...The most recent example was W Bush having to reverse the 2001 steel tariffs....Imagine what the Chinese could do...Historical reminder: Since the 1990s, currency traders have consistently sold....Parallels with February 2002....It is no surprise that George W...Bush's war declaration on foreign steel in late 2001 aimed at saving the....By the time the WTO fined the US $2 bn in sanctions, the US dollar had lost 12%....Next Week: All about the Fed Statement & US Dollar....Considering warnings about USD strength by Trump and Mnuchin, any mention of the..

  • Intraday Market Thought: Something Phenomenal or Paranormal

    by Adam Button | Feb 9, 2017 23:46
    Something Phenomenal or Paranormal Chart The current market reminds us of Fox Mulder on the X-Files...He had a poster behind his desk that said 'I want to believe'....He was referring to aliens and the paranomal but in the market's case,....7 Premium trades are currently open: 3 in FX, 2 in commodities and 2 in equity....Like Mulder, whenever the market sees a shred of evidence, it jumps to....On Thursday, Donald Trump promised “something phenomenal” on....That was all the proof-of-life the market needed as the US dollar jumped 50-....The usual arc of an X-Files episode was that after the initial glimpse, Mulder&....In short, reality hit...Trump, Abe & Yen....On Friday, it's Japanese PM Abe, who will make a two day visit to meet and....The risk is that Trump attacks the yen...Abe has been on a charm offensive since Trump was elected but the President has....In general, Trump is cordial with his guests but it's too early to be sure...A newswire report, citing sources, said currencies aren't his priority in....That's the ebb and flow of this market...Trump promises a magical future and the market believes, then over the following....That same ebb and flow is the trade, it's a slow USD slide until the next....Other politicians are locked in similar battles so we must remain locked on..
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