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  • Intraday Market Thought: Revisions Slowing the Slowdown

    by Ashraf Laidi | Apr 7, 2023 15:52
    Revisions Slowing the Slowdown Chart Today's release of US March jobs report may contain something for....The 236K print in NFP hit the weakest level since December 2020 and the 4...2% print in average hourly earnings y/y was the lowest since June 2021...nbsp;....Slowing the Slowdown....The pullback in unemployment rate should be temporary...nbsp;Here is why: Accelerating job layoffs as well as the latest upward....Layoffs announcements do not translate to an immediate loss of jobs as it takes....nbsp;Employers will then have to pay severance pay, which could take another....Only then, will laid off workers be able to file for unemployment benefits....All of this reinforces the reality of the delay between announcing layoffs and....nbsp;....Don't forget the other economic reality-- Companies decide to cut jobs....e...well after the slowdown emerges in aggregate demand and manufacturing/....Jobless claims could go from +220K to +270K within 2-3 weeks --just as the....5% to 4...0% by end of Q2...And guess what? The pace of such developments will be rocky thanks to the....Economic data tend to deteriorate in a non-linear fashion...Yesterday was a case in point—jobless claims appeared to have fallen,....This is a typical aspect of evolving recessionary data—especially when....Things tend to “happen fast” in markets, while macro developments....00% and gold breaks $2070...nbsp;....nbsp;..

  • Intraday Market Thought: Trend vs Trendline: Gold, DXY, Yields

    by Ashraf Laidi | Jun 22, 2023 14:41
    Trend vs Trendline: Gold, DXY, Yields Chart Moving the goal posts can be a dangerous endeavor in various fields--health,....In technical analysis, trendlines are defined as identifying the general....The more points, the more relevant the trendline...But where do you draw the line between trendlines and trends? ....The chart below highlights the generally sensible relationship between rising....ldquo;Ashraf, did you say rising trendline in gold?? Ive been long gold....Yes so am I and so have I...Short-term traders long gold are suffering the 5% decline in bullion from....5% YTD is bad, while -7% from the year highs is worse...The opposite holds true for 10-yr yields, which have jumped 16% from their March....Gold traders have their eyes fixated on the 3...83/4% level, which is not only the year's open but also the top of the....Any print above 3...90% would trigger an ugly cascade of sell orders across metals and indices....nbsp;....How is this all relevant to those with longs in metals? Gold can remain in its....This requires support from silver upholding 21...80/90 and copper doing the same at 7880...Our intermetals frameworks also examines platinum and real yields...While this can be a dangerous example of shifting the goal posts and redefining....nbsp;....For a recent real-life example of this approach, take a look at how Gold's....Ive mentioned this repeatedly in my recent seminars/webinars and made a it a....nbsp;....nbsp;..

  • Intraday Market Thought: Never Heard of it Therefore it ain't Important

    by Ashraf Laidi | Oct 3, 2023 19:48
    Never Heard of it Therefore it ain't Important Chart So you trade currencies? Dabble in indices, speculate in gold or scalp oil?....I also mentioned to the Group how it moved markets the last time it was....nbsp; What happened after the report was history...I will not mention on here my repeated warnings to the Group this week and last....Finally, the Nasdaq100 targets were just some of the targets hit...nbsp;....nbsp;....You can spend hours in trading chatrooms, listening to experts and peers to feel....But beyond NFP and FOMC, there is an ocean of developments, relationships,....e...not everything is obvious or apparent...You need consistency in guidance and alerts throughout the trading day...If you have made it all the way to the end of these 4 paragraphs, then it means....All you need is 5 mins to watch what the WBG is about and how it's been....5x so it goes faster...And the bit about the BoJ in 4:50 mins...nbsp;....nbsp;..

  • Intraday Market Thought: Why the Dow30 Now?

    by Ashraf Laidi | Feb 13, 2024 18:11
    Why the Dow30 Now? Chart Anyone who is/was a member of the WhatsApp Bdcast Group, would know I....I usually pick the Nasdaq100 or SPX500...But over the past 3 weeks, I'd been warning the Group to prepare for....We eventually pulled the trigger last week and we're still in the trade...So why the Dow30 this time? We cited 5 reasons, some of which are listed below:....1...The Dow Theory and the lack of confirmation in the Dow Transportation....A video was published on this here...nbsp;  ....2...DOW30 contains none of the AI/microchip juggernauts of the Nasdaq100 such as....nbsp;....3...The DOW30, however, does contain Apple, which makes up about 8% of the index,....Apple and Netflix are down 0...2% and 26% year-to-date respectively...nbsp;....4...DOW30 likes big numbers and 38900s is equal to 20% rise from the October low...Monday's high of 38927 is nearly exactly equal to the 38915 generational....Coincidences? The USA is far from descending into a dark decade or semi....nbsp;....With regards to the VIX, see the above chart how it's setting to break....nbsp; A close above 15, would mean more trouble for stocks...There are other more advanced quantitative analysis requiring further....And dont forget February is the 2nd worst month of the stock market over the....nbsp; ..

  • Intraday Market Thought: Poloz Strikes Again, but CAD doesn't Mean USDCAD

    by Ashraf Laidi | Mar 18, 2014 19:14
    CAD has shown some sessions recently but its knack to increasingly become the....Many traders have wrongfully equated CAD with USDCAD, which is not necessarily....Today's remarks from Bank of Canada governor Poloz giving soft guidance over....We highlighted in our “FxPerformance Special” how the....While attention is on USD and GBP ahead of tomorrow's FOMC and UK Budget, we....AUDUSD long from Feb 24 at 0...8980 awaits final 0...9140.

  • Intraday Market Thought: Ahead of Tomorrow's Key UK Data

    by Ashraf Laidi | Sep 16, 2014 20:31
    GBP traders preparing for Thursday's Scottish independence referendum will....These will be followed by Thursday's release of Aug retail sales...Tomorrow's jobs figures will likely be dominated by the earnings figure,....If we mentioned each single “If and but” of this week's UK....Ahead of these events, we issued a new GBP trade for our Premium Insights..

  • Intraday Market Thought: Lala Land FX Assumptions

    by Ashraf Laidi | Jan 27, 2017 10:44
    Lala Land FX Assumptions Chart The notion that Trump's planned protectionist measures (tariffs and....nbsp;  We're not in the 1980s or 1990s when US trading partners....Regarding the chart below: Yes, there were other factors driving the USD in....nbsp; But US trade actions are no longer going unanswered...The most recent example was W Bush having to reverse the 2001 steel tariffs....Imagine what the Chinese could do...Historical reminder: Since the 1990s, currency traders have consistently sold....Parallels with February 2002....It is no surprise that George W...Bush's war declaration on foreign steel in late 2001 aimed at saving the....By the time the WTO fined the US $2 bn in sanctions, the US dollar had lost 12%....Next Week: All about the Fed Statement & US Dollar....Considering warnings about USD strength by Trump and Mnuchin, any mention of the..

  • Intraday Market Thought: Something Phenomenal or Paranormal

    by Adam Button | Feb 9, 2017 23:46
    Something Phenomenal or Paranormal Chart The current market reminds us of Fox Mulder on the X-Files...He had a poster behind his desk that said 'I want to believe'....He was referring to aliens and the paranomal but in the market's case,....7 Premium trades are currently open: 3 in FX, 2 in commodities and 2 in equity....Like Mulder, whenever the market sees a shred of evidence, it jumps to....On Thursday, Donald Trump promised “something phenomenal” on....That was all the proof-of-life the market needed as the US dollar jumped 50-....The usual arc of an X-Files episode was that after the initial glimpse, Mulder&....In short, reality hit...Trump, Abe & Yen....On Friday, it's Japanese PM Abe, who will make a two day visit to meet and....The risk is that Trump attacks the yen...Abe has been on a charm offensive since Trump was elected but the President has....In general, Trump is cordial with his guests but it's too early to be sure...A newswire report, citing sources, said currencies aren't his priority in....That's the ebb and flow of this market...Trump promises a magical future and the market believes, then over the following....That same ebb and flow is the trade, it's a slow USD slide until the next....Other politicians are locked in similar battles so we must remain locked on..

  • Intraday Market Thought: Canada-US Tweak, China Inflation Next

    by Adam Button | Feb 13, 2017 22:37
    Canada-US Tweak, China Inflation Next Chart The first meeting between Trump and Trudeau clarified the US President's....The pound was the top performer while the euro lagged...Chinese CPI and a speech from Kuroda are due up next...The Premium short EURUSD was closed with a 130-pip gain, leaving 2 USD trades....Canadian politicians and CAD traders have been scrambling for signs about how....In a joint press conference at the White House, Trump said trade problems....USD/CAD fell to the lows of the day at 1...3060 on the comments...The pair fell a half-cent in North American trade, despite a 2% fall in....The generally-positive assessment from Trump on trade and his commitments to....3000...Otherwise, newsflow was light to start the week before Tuesday's widely....nbsp; We noted a New York Fed consumer survey that showed inflation....8%....We will be looking for an assessment from Yellen in tomorrow's testimony...First, the focus shifts to China with the release of January CPI numbers at....Some skews begin to drop out of the data and the year-over-year number is....4% from 2...1%....The PPI is also expected to rise to 6...5% from 5...5%....China has fallen off the market's radar with all the political drama but....The other event to watch is a Kuroda speech at 0430 GMT...There is speculation in some parts of the market that he will start to shift..

  • Intraday Market Thought: Decisions & Fear of Heights

    by Ashraf Laidi | Mar 10, 2017 17:50
    Decisions & Fear of Heights Chart If you suffer from a fear of heights then careful when looking at the daily....After holding the long USDJPY Premium trade for over 2 months, we've....45 from the 114...10 entry...The decision to close USDJPY long and allow EURUSD long to run (bought at 1...0540) was made 15 mins before today's NFP report...The decision to do so was about 90% technicals-related and less than 10%....2% m/m vs exp 0...3% m/m despite other positives such as falling Unemp rate to 4...8% from 4...7%, 235K NFP vs exp 200K consensus and NFP upward revision)....But there's more to this...While holding the USDJPY long (bought at 114...10) the position suffered extended unrealised losses (stop was 111), but as....40 support (50% fib of the Jun 2015-June 2016 move) that already worked as key....After closing the USDJPY long, today's candle failed at the 50% retracement....Why I Let EURUSD Long Before NFP....A partial answer is my improved confidence with EURJPY after yesterday&....Another partial answer is related to the relationship between USDX and USDJPY,....Meanwhile, yesterday's EURAUD pre-ECB long is 150-pips in the green while..
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