Searched for:
Results: 551 to 560 of 1,000
Results: 551 to 560 of 1,000
-
Article: After Theresa May
by Ashraf Laidi | May 24, 2019 16:47
Now that PM Theresa May has announced stepping down from the Conservative....We know former Foreign Minister Boris Johnson is considered as the favourite....We also know too well he's a staunch Brexit supporter...But I do not foresee him as the next Prime Minister...So what's this chart telling us below?....If the inverted head-&-shoulders formation above is correct, then it....2600...Perhaps an intraweek drop to 1...2580 or 1...2550 but not a Friday close under 1...2600...I continue to expect 1...3700 or 1...3800 before end of Q3...This includes a move of +400 pips in a single trading week within the next 3....After a series of winning trades in cable for our Premium subscribers, we....2630 in our cable longs...Good news that quite a few clients (I call them clients not subscribers....More importantly, keeping a clear head on the price, chart & fundamental....For the record: We're not basing our bullish GBPUSD call solely on the....We've mentioned a few times in the Premium videos other factors such as USD....Fundamentally, a rally in cable could occur via several routes: Due to Boris....An alternative Johnson scenario (GBP-positive) would be for him to secure a....Any path towards that would be a positive shock to the pound...nbsp; There are various other options, not all of which are related to the....But the 3 major outcomes remain well on the table: Brexit with a deal, Brexit....And keep an eye on Sunday's EU elections results...A strong showing for the LibDems or a surprise +20% would be favourable for....Stay tuned and don't forget the weekly close.
-
Intraday Market Thought: G20 Battle Lines Leak, Data First
by Adam Button | Jun 28, 2019 13:08
Mixed and contrasting leaks regarding Saturday's US-China meeting at the....The Australian dollar was the top performer Thursday while the pound....UK Q1 GDP was unrevised at 1...8% and Ezone flash CPI came in at 1...2%, while core rose to 1...1% from 0...8%....Canadian GDP and the US PCE report will be market movers ahead of month-end...A new trade was issued with 2 charts & 3 key notes, updating last week'....Key data coming up from the US and Canada (see below)....تحديد الصفقة الثانية - فيديو المشتركين...The South China Morning Post reported Thursday that a precondition of Xi....That would undoubtedly be a positive outcome at this stage and might lead to....At the same time, it would cut the Fed's appetite for easing so the optimism....Such a scenario would lead to a rally in the dollar and gold may be vulnerable...A separate report from the WSJ said another precondition was removing a....That would be a step back for Trump and something tougher to agree with...The same report also said Beijing wants the US to lift all punitive tariffs and....The reports were accompanied by the usual denials, along with others that....The most-likely outcome is a neutral-positive because these matters are....Ashraf's Tweet on indices here...Looking ahead, North American traders will have plenty to digest on Friday....The US PCE report is the penultimate look at the Fed's preferred....San Francisco Fed President Daly highlighted inflation as a key concern....The deflator and core measures are both expected at 1...5% y/y and a 0...2-0...3 pp miss to the upside would raise instant questions about Fed cuts...Also released at 1230 GMT (13:30 London) will be the Canadian April GDP report...It's expected at 0...2% but risks are to the upside after a strong wholesale trade report earlier in....Another strong number would solidify the CAD bid and the belief that the BOC won&....Note that Monday is a holiday in Canada and that Friday is the final trading day....Aside from G20 positioning, fund rebalancing flows will be in play...The outsized rally in US stocks means the dollar is most likely to come under..
-
Intraday Market Thought: Iran Worries and US-China Progress
by Adam Button | Jul 22, 2019 15:08
All eyes are on tomorrow's announcement of the new British PM...See Ashraf's tweet below...Two headlines from late on Friday set the stage for oil market jitters and....DOW30 and SPX continue to test and fail 27300 and 2993 respectively...CFTC positioning data continued to show a sharp turn on CAD...Iran seized a UK-flagged tanker on Friday in an escalation of a dispute....Crude climbed nearly $1 on the report and earlier scattered reports that a....The move shows some brinksmanship from Iran as it fights to get oil to market....At almost the same time, reports on Friday suggested that the US and China....Reports last week suggested both sides were reluctant to follow-through on G20....Now that the 2-week silence period from Fed speakers is active (no speeches....This week begins with the Richmond Fed and existing home sales for June...The manufacturing numbers have been tough to pin down lately...Most of the regional numbers plunged in June but the already-released Philly Fed....CFTC Commitments of Traders....Speculative net futures trader positions as of the close on Tuesday...Net short denoted by - long by....EUR -31K vs -36K prior...GBP -76K vs -73K prior...JPY -11K vs -4K prior...CHF -12K vs -10K prior...CAD +21K vs +9K prior...AUD -53K vs -54K prior...NZD -17K vs -22K prior....CAD longs are now the most-stretched since March 2018 in what's been a....The numbers track the period before Friday's soft retail sales report...Sales ex-autos were down 0...3% compared to +0...3% expected but an unusual 2...0% decline in supermarket sales skewed the numbers lower...That's a sector that's rarely economically sensitive and that was the..
-
Intraday Market Thought: Overlooked Hints from Powell
by Adam Button | Sep 9, 2019 13:20
Powell didn't grab any headlines in Zurich but his Friday speech had more....GBP is the best performer of the day and the month amid hopes of closing the gap....Parliament will be suspended today after one more vote on holding elections is....FX traders will shift attention to the ECB later this week on whether a new....CFTC positioning showed a spike in favour of GBP longs...US indices are less than 1% away from their record high and the VIX broke....0...The Premium index trade is currently more than 500 pts in the green, while....The headlines around Powell's appearance in Switzerland centered on....Neither statement is news as both stray into the obvious...What was important was a change of tone on inflation...Powell talked about how the Fed's strategy is to avoid inflation....5-2...0% zone...That's a strong hint on plans to cut rates, and on how they will be....Further he spoke about the fading relationship between economic tightness....On the weekend, China's August trade surplus narrowed on an unexpected drop....The surplus narrowed to $34...8B, about $10B smaller than expected...That came after exports fell 1...0% compared to a 2...2% rise expected...Imports fell 5...6%....More than the narrowing of the surplus, the story here is overall slowing trade....But markets are looking ahead, hoping that last week's PBOC cut to the RRR....Will markets sustain their optimism ahead of what could be another....CFTC Commitments of Traders....Speculative net futures trader positions as of the close on Tuesday...Net short denoted by - long by....EUR -49K vs -39K prior...GBP -85K vs -89K prior...JPY +28K vs +34K prior...CHF -6K vs -4K prior...CAD +5K vs +11K prior...AUD -59K vs -61K prior...NZD -31K vs -26K..
-
Intraday Market Thought: ECB's Next Challenge
by Adam Button | Sep 10, 2019 11:40
Thursday's ECB meeting is perhaps the least straight-forward central bank....All currencies are currently weaker vs USD except for CHF...The rebound in risk trades extends to European indices as US equities edge....UK jobs creation slowed in August but wages growth of 4% continue to outpace 2%....تحديث النفط، الين و الإسترليني - فيديو المشتركين...Markets featured light USD selling on Monday as Treasury yields ticked higher...The pound benefited from a strong GDP report in a rally to a five-week high...UK parliament will now take a break until mid-October as Johnson failed to....He will attempt to obtain a deal from the EU, which remains far-fetched...Upbeat economic news continued Tuesday as wage growth grew at a faster pace....UK politics will continue to weigh heavily on FX but the short-term....The latest hints from the ECB suggest rate cuts and perhaps no further QE...The aim may be to lower short-term rates while keeping the longer end higher in....If so, the result could be to sell the euro...At the same time, the market has been conditioned to expect a 'surprise&....Forecasts for a rate cut range from -10 to -25 bps...One scenario is for the ECB to disappoint, raising questions about the....Part of the strategy is surely to nudge governments into expanding fiscal policy....There is an increasing idea in markets that a harder line will be a hallmark of....That message may already be filtering through as the euro climbed Monday on a....Expect those types of reports to increasingly steal the FX spotlight away..
-
Intraday Market Thought: US Stocks Highs, UK December Elections
by Adam Button | Oct 29, 2019 14:33
The S&P 500 hit a record on Monday as commentary from executives so far....The pound regains the 1...2890s after UK Labour leader Corbyn announced his party's backing for a....One of the final inputs for the Fed is release of the October consumer....3 to 125...9...Pending home sales edged up 1...5% from 1...4%, while house price data was mixed...The mystery charts below will be discussed in the Premium Video later....Towards UK December Elections....Labour Leader Corbyn finally agreed to holding a general election in December....Now we move into several votes amending elections laws...The rationale explaining GBP's moves nearing elections has been discussed in....Stocks are in the spotlight after Monday's record high in the S&P 500,....The jump came on the anniversary of Black Monday exactly 90 years ago –....There are historical parallels with the trade war and rising protectionism but....Trump has halted his offensive against China and a Phase One deal is now likely....Given the proximity to the 2020 election, the likelihood is that we get an....Central banks have also learned lessons with a wave of global easing....Yet there are similarities as well...The global trend of voters shifting to the fringes is well-underway...In a state election in Germany on the weekend, Merkel's CDU finished in....Huge protests have erupted in Chile, Lebanon and Hong Kong...Westminster is so dysfunctional that an election is held up on a three-day....The break in stocks signals some resilience in the economy...Commentary from CEOs outside of the hard-hit automotive industry talk about....Looking ahead, Wednesday's looming FOMC decision will probably keep a cap....The market is pricing in a 92% chance of a cut but the odds of another move in..
-
Intraday Market Thought: A Powell Cut then what?
by Adam Button | Oct 30, 2019 13:00
A third consecutive cut from the Federal Reserve is imminent this evening, but....Due to the temporary time difference, the Fed decision is at 18:00 London, 19:....All currencies are up against the US dollar, led by CHF and GBP, with the JPY....US advanced Q3 GDP grew 1...9%, beating the exp 1...6%, but still below Q2's 2...0%....US October ADP report on private sector jobs showed a 125K rise vs the exp 110K....USD ignored both reports...The Sept figure was revised down to 93K from 135K...nbsp; The Pre-Fed English Premium Video is found below...Fed day is finally here and along with month-end it will surely unleash some....The market is pricing a 94% chance of a cut and it would be the biggest monetary....The intrigue lies beyond Wednesday...The market is currently pricing in a 27% chance of a cut in December...That was above the 40% midway through the month and near 50% at times in....At this point, a Phase One deal and an extended ceasefire are solidly priced....At the same time, the Fed is loathe to remove optionality and will preserve the....The goal of post-meeting communication will likely be to keep December cut....In theory that should mean minor tweaks in communication...The main risk Wednesday is a communication error...The most-recent Fed minutes indicated a growing push to communicate to markets....If Powell strikes the wrong tone in that signaling and dials back expectations....A similar message may also arise in the number of dissents or overly-optimistic....Can Equity Indices Rally Further?....Yes, sure...Powell could over-emphasize low inflation and economic risks; talking....The market could take that as a signal about more cuts, which would weaken the....The best case scenario for stocks and worst one for JPY would be for Powell to....Ultimately, Powell has gained some experience in his role and should have a....With regards to today's Q3 GDP release, it's far too early to get....The market is also jittery about a soft October jobs report because of the GM....The strike was not reflected in the ADP.
-
Intraday Market Thought: Don't Overinterpret the News
by Adam Button | Nov 7, 2019 12:34Be careful out there...Do not immediately jump into shorting after each and every not-so positive....US indices pushed to fresh new highs as both sides agreed to roll back tariffs...We have yet to get a confirmation from the US...We argued in this week's English and Arabic Premium videos against rushing....The Negative....On Wednesday afternoon US time, reports emerged that the US-China trade deal may....Some said the agreeing on the location of the US-China trade deal signing could....The latest reports say China has refused Trump's proposal to have a ceremony....This would have seeming been an easy thing to give up for Beijing but Xi must....Now reports say there are proposals for a meeting in Europe...Worse is a Reuters report saying that the deal may not get done until December...Until this week, markets were fed a steady diet of politicians saying the....That goosed risk assets but now it appears there are more than just....China is demanding the removal of Sept 1 tariffs and perhaps others in exchange....On their side, they have moved to protect intellectual property and on....Yet it's tariffs at the heart of the trade deal and the market is beginning....AUD/JPY traded at the lows of the week on Thursday after the rally in the trade-....The Positive....Still, the market remains decidedly optimistic...Pushing back a deal a few weeks isn't itself a problem but if there are any....Also seeming to help sentiment, is China's announcemen of high-profile....A good example of how much trade is dominating the market is AUD this week...The news has been good and that extended to Thursday when the Sept trade surplus....The prior was also revised higher...Lately, trade numbers have been showed falls in both imports and exports but....Yet a 10-pip rally was wiped out in minutes and it's a laggard again.. -
Intraday Market Thought: Election Pop Burst
by Adam Button | Dec 18, 2019 12:28
The pound has given back all of its election night gains in a sharp fall....GBP is trading below 1...31 after UK Oct CPI remained unchanged at 1...5% y/y and core at 1...7% y/y...Eurozone Oct CPI stood unchanged at 1...3%....Canadian CPI is due up next...Below is the Premium subscribers' video, focusing on updating crucial....nbsp;....The market honeymoon for Conservatives abruptly ended Tuesday after the party....That will leave the EU and UK just 11 months to negotiate a new trading....Johnson insists that the existing relationship makes that a realistic....Barnier was recorded telling MEPs earlier this month that at best the....Cable fell more than 200 pips on the news and is now at 1...3090s, almost precisely where it was before the election exit poll was....There was a slice of good news on the GBP front early in Asia as both S&P....Interestingly, S&P saw "receding" risk of no deal,....both agencies stated that Johnson would eventually extend the transition period...Eyes turn towards Thursday's BoE's take on the post-elections climate....Aside from the pound, economic news was light but generally positive...US industrial production, housing starts and JOLTS all beat estimates...In markets, oil continued to make fresh post-Saudi attack highs...Another profit warning from FedEx will be seen how it impacts Dow....Looking ahead, the economic calendar is important for the Canadian dollar....Canada is one of the few countries with above-target inflation and might be the....The consensus for Wednesday's report is +2...2% on the core and +1...9%-+2...2% on the three core measures...So far, inflation hasn't captured the market's attention but a further..
-
Intraday Market Thought: 5 Near-Term Themes
by Adam Button | Jan 17, 2020 18:02
You probably had your fill of "2020 themes", so why not another? The....China...The US-China trade deal removes a major worry for Beijing, which may take action....nbsp; Officials strongly hinted that another RRR rate cut isn't coming,....That would be powerful -- and if they do, I see bright days ahead for the....Inflation watch....A pair of US inflation reports this week were on the low side of expectations....The Fed has confined itself to the sidelines but there is life in inflation...Heading into next month, we roll over some tough comps and that sets a lower....I think there's a chance that at some point this year, inflation is a....Housing....Central banks haven't been able to spark broad based inflation, but they&....With all the rate cuts last year, an underrated risk is a surprise rise in....We're already starting to see signs of tighter market in New Zealand which....Thursday's home builder sentiment numbers in the US were a bit stronger as....Oil....US shale oil is not what it appears to be...Every budget that comes out points to less spending this year and the market....Natural gas is worthless in many parts of the US and is being burned off at....On top of that, the risks for the US election are higher in energy than....The market is overly comfortable around $60 but a fall below $50 would create a....Iran....A week ago we were on the brink of war and now the world has forgotten about....Geopolitics are impossible to price in...You can't price in half-a-war...The thinking now is everyone got to flex their muscles, but a report on Friday....That puts to bed the theory that Iran was knowingly dropping bombs that wouldn&....The chance of Iran or Iran-sponsored militias launching attacks remains high....US election....The election is the one risk that everyone can point to and it's....The world will change on Nov 3 but it's a binary risk and that's tough....At some point there will be a pre-election de-risking but it's tough....The following remains valid...so far: Trump is staying in the White House as long as a recession or a stock..
