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Results: 571 to 580 of 1,000
Results: 571 to 580 of 1,000
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Intraday Market Thought: Poll-Watching but Euro Move Looms
by Adam Button | May 30, 2017 0:04
It's all about the polls as the UK election winds down and the market....The pound was the top performer in light holiday trading on Monday as it....CFTC positioning showed a big move in euro shorts...More on the latest drop in the euro below...Slippage in the euro ensued in eary Pacific trade on reports that Greece may....Draghi's comments that "extraordinary" amount of monetary....A series of campaign missteps left Theresa May vulnerable and voters began....The Manchester attacked added to anxiety and what looked like a sure thing was....Those are the kinds of numbers that put her close enough to the margin of error....On Friday, the pound fell more than 150 pips in a broad rout that ensure polls....On Monday, the news was better for the Prime Minister with an ICM poll putting....In response, cable rebounded 40 pips...The rebound may continue Tuesday as Chinese, US and UK traders return...At the same time, the week ahead features some major economic data points....CFTC Commitments of Traders....Speculative net futures trader positions as of the close on Tuesday...Net short denoted by - long by....EUR +65K vs +38K prior...GBP -24K vs -33K prior...JPY -52K vs -60K prior...CHF -20K vs -21K prior...CAD -99K vs -98K prior...AUD +3K vs +6K prior...NZD -9K vs -12K prior....The euro gradually had become the darling of the currency market...It's been a rapid shift from a large net short over the past month and the....The market loves a central bank that's bottomed out and an economy that'....Is this recovery for real?....Draghi was certainly optimistic in European Parliament on Monday as he....The ECB is trying to prepare the market for a taper signal in September while..
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Intraday Market Thought: Soft Signals
by Adam Button | Oct 31, 2017 22:25
Soft US economic data sent incorrect signals over the past year but the....For the second day in a row both the pound was the leader and the loonie was....Higher than expected employment figures and lower than expected jobless rate....The FOMC decision is due on Wednesday...The Dow "divergence" addressed in today's Premium video (below)....هل حان وقت البيع؟ (فيديو للمشتركين فقط)....How strong is the US economy? If the consumer confidence survey from The....The index hit 125...9 in October compared to 121...3 expected...Manufacturing sentiment is also bubbly with the Chicago PMI rising to 66...2 compared to the 61...0 consensus...That's the best since March 2011...The reports are a continuation of a string of solid data points that are....Combine that with optimism about a tax cut and the US dollar is in a sweet spot...USD/JPY climbed a half-cent on Tuesday as October came to a close...The pound also continued to benefit from speculation that Carney will hike this....USD/CAD jumped after Canadian GDP contracted 0...1% in August compared to +0...1% expected...Poloz also reiterated that inflation risks are balanced and that the BOC will....That virtually rules out a December rate hike...Wednesday's FOMC decision is largely seen as a non-event but we think that&....The market is pricing in just a 0...8% chance of a hike and while it's still remote, the possibility of a hike....Yellen may decide she doesn't want to hamstring her successor into only....Still, what's most likely is a continued pledge to gradually hike rates....That should be enough to keep a bid in the dollar.
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Intraday Market Thought: Dollar Solid Ahead of FOMC
by Adam Button | Dec 12, 2017 22:24
The US dollar climbed ahead of the Wednesday's FOMC decision on signs....The Australian dollar was the top performer on Tuesday while the euro....Japanese machine orders and the RBA's Kent are up before Yellen...A new Premium video has been issued and sent to subscribers on the rationale....The US PPI report doesn't always foreshadow headline inflation but is....The November report showed pipeline pressures at the highest since February....1% y/y compared to 2...9% expected...The US dollar got a lift from the report and continued higher for much of the....The USD also benefited from Congressional talk that passing the....That presents two-sided risks but early details show a 21% corporate tax rate,....What will matter more is how deductions and R&D are credited...USD/JPY rose as high as 113...75, which was the best since Nov 14...The pair is slowly approaching the tough zone of resistance in the 114-115 range...It's a zone that's been tested four times in the past year and held...The day ahead could be a big one on that front...If the FOMC hikes rates (an almost sure bet) and delivers some hawkish hints,....However if the Fed decides to stay coy before Powell takes the reigns and the....Ashraf will post a full Fed preview in English and Arabic in Wednesday's....nbsp;....Before then, some Asia-Pacific data could move markets...The RBA's Kent is due up at 0000 GMT...The market is increasingly expecting the RBA to stay on the sidelines for the....Yesterday's soft Q3 house price data underscored the challenges...Another report to note is the October Japanese machine orders report...The consensus is for a 2...9% rise after the 8...1% drop in September.
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Intraday Market Thought: Has Cable Been Punished Enough?
by Adam Button | Jun 29, 2018 12:16
On the final day of week, month, quarter and half year, equity indices are....EURUSD rallies on flash CPI hitting the ECB's 2...0% goal (despite core remaining at 1...0%....On the day, euro leads all major currencies higher against USD, with the....The week wraps up with the US PCE report...US May core PCE price index and Canada's April GDP are due out at 8:30 ET....A new note updating the USDJPY Premium trade will be issued and sent after the....Cable Bottom?....Comments from the BOE's Haldane on Thursday underscored how the tables have....In mid-April cable had just touched the highest since Brexit as the market was....It was trading just shy of 1...44 then Carney hinted at some soft spots in the economy in an interview with the....The weakness was real as a series of economic data points missed expectations....3050...Shortly after it hit that low, which was the worst level since November, BOE....He emphasized minimal slack in the economy...In his view at least, nothing has really changed...If the data begins to turn then it will be right back to Plan A...So is the more than 1300 pip decline in the pair justified? Certainly there have....The US dollar is also higher across the board since the slide began but that....There's an argument that this is enough and with cable now testing....3000 from Q4 last year and the 2016 trendline support (see chart above)....Certainly, there haven't been any yet with the pair in a non-stop slide....The US dollar side also merits close scrutiny...Fed centrist Bostic talked about slowing the pace of hikes on Thursday and that....Much will depend on today's May PCE report...Core inflation is expected to tick up to 1...9% from 1...8% and headline to 2...2% from 2...0% but we're nearing the apex of the one-off factors that are boosting....Keep a close eye on personal income and spending as well, both expected up 0...4%..
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Intraday Market Thought: Where to Ride out the Volatility
by Adam Button | Oct 12, 2018 8:02
We look at the causes of the latest round of fear and volatility and where....Stock markets were hammered again Thursday but it was the New Zealand....China trade balance is due up next...Thursday's Premium trade is firmly in the money after gold was bought at....The thesis was put forth in this week's English and Arabic videos...Why did Ashraf pick Thursday morning to buy gold? Why not in other....حان وقت الدخول (فيديو للمشتركين فقط)....There was no single trigger for the rout in markets but a handful of factors....1) Rates....Fed hikes are coming whether Trump likes it or not...The Fed will take pains to appear to be independent and that could harden their....In any case, the market is signalling a new regime of higher rates and....What would become of the 4...2% GDP growth when we take out 2...0% inflation, followed by the expiry of Trump's tax stimulus? 3...20% yields become an obstacle, especially when the IMF downgraded....2) The trade war....There was one good sign Thursday as the WSJ reported that Trump will meet with....It's no coincidence that equity selling started after Pence's anti-....The lines are being drawn for a long battle...3) Earnings....Big financials kick off earnings season Friday...Citigroup in particular might have insight into how consumers are coping....More broadly, the focus will be on guidance and commentary because the near....Companies warning about global growth may turn this from an equity event into....4) China....Perhaps the most - concerning chart right now is the Shanghai Composite...Yesterday's 5...2% decline broke major support in a drop to the lowest since 2016...Where to ride it out....Gold showed genuine signs of life Thursday in a $30 to close above the....With bonds, equities and almost everything else falling, there's an....More demand makes sense with looming trouble coming from the US midterms, the....Looking to China, the trade balance report is due later but there were also....A Politico report said it will be the status quo but that news did little to....Ashraf reminded us of the unusual event of the dollar failing to rise during the....That could be part and parcel of pre-empting a reflexive rise in the Chinese....And we know how that correlates with gold.
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Intraday Market Thought: Merkel off, Bolsonaro on, Italy Downgrade off
by Adam Button | Oct 29, 2018 12:33
News that German Chancellor Angela Merkel announced stepping down from her....Markets broadened into risk on after right-wing candidate Bolsonaro was won....S&P lowered Italy's outlook to negative but maintained its BBB rating....CFTC positioning data showed a narrower yen short position, while gold....In light of the end of day-light saving time in Europe over the weekend, the....There was some fear S&P could downgrade Italy because of the....They are certainly not out of the woods with the political drama set to continue....Fitch also affirmed the UK at AA but lowered its outlook to negative as a....None of the ratings moves prompted lasting moves in the FX market...The Brazilian real is slightly stronger to start the week after right-wing....His initial comments suggested an austerity program...Brazil's Bovespa stock index is up 14% from September lows, wile most....Equity markets and risk aversion continue to dominate...US equities attempted a comeback on Friday after a soft open but the bounce....On Friday, US GDP rose 3...5% compared to 3...3% expected in part due to the strongest personal consumption since 2014...The other part was the largest inventory accumulation in over 2 years...A major drag was net exports, which trimmed 1...78 points from growth...That's a story that will remain in the focus this week with trade balance....There's been a clear deterioration this year that's reasserted itself....US data kicked off the week with an unchanged reading in September core PCE....0% y/y (Fed's inflation gauge)....CFTC Commitments of Traders....Speculative net futures trader positions as of the close on Tuesday...Net short denoted by - long by....EUR -30K vs -29K prior...GBP -47K vs -50K prior...JPY -93K vs -101K prior...CHF -17K vs -13K prior...CAD -7K vs -11K prior...AUD -70K vs -71K prior...NZD -33K vs -35K prior....Specs were on the right side of the trade for the most part last week and....The most-crowded position, however, is short-yen and that was squeezed last..
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Intraday Market Thought: Slowdown or Recession?
by Adam Button | Dec 21, 2018 17:26
Economic data so far is showing nothing worse than a modest slowdown in global....Both cannot be right...Here are three spots to watch for early signs and a chart from Ashraf indicating....China data....Everyone has been worried about China for nearly 15 years...The growth has been unlike anything seen in history and the smooth pace is one....Could this finally be the first real test?....One problem is that data can't be trusted...It's been manipulated forever...nbsp; Guangdong abruptly stopped publishing its economic survey in....Officials said the regional industry office didn't have approval from the....One area that can't be faked is trade data...That's because it's reported for China and in the trade partner and the....Especially watch imports as they're more forward looking than exports...In November, imports rose just 3...0% y/y compared to 20...8% in October and 14...0% expected...Trade war data....Central bankers have been remarkably arrogant around trade risks...Yesterday Powell talked about their models around trade and that the impacts....Poloz has been saying the same...I don't believe you can model it and historical evidence is hard to come by...We just don't know businesses and the real economy are going to react...The key variable is stockpiling...Trump has been talking about tariffs all year and that may have led to a hidden....As tariffs hit in September, we might see an inventory drawdown, which could....At the same time, you have Trump threatening 25% tariffs on everything so....Eventually though, you hit the cliff...Signs of trouble will be in trade data and manufacturing surveys...Yesterday's release of the Philly Fed dropped to the lowest since 2016...The NY Fed's Empire index is at the lowest since March 2017....Capex data....Business investment is a leading indicator...Unfortunately core US durable goods orders have been negative for the past....Look out for commentary from corporate leaders...Earlier this week, Fedex warned about slowing global growth, particularly in....More comments along those lines would severely undercut sentiment...The risk is that companies use it as a scapegoat for poor execution.
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Intraday Market Thought: Rehn's Panic, Jobs Reports Next
by Adam Button | Jul 5, 2019 11:55
Just a few words on the ECB before we cover the jobs report...Ollie Rehn, Finnish central bank governor laid out the ECB's path....What's increasingly difficult to understand is the set of signals that....US and Canada jobs are due up next...The Video for Premium subscribers is posted below, laying out the key....Markets were relatively quiet on Thursday but Rehn – Once an ECB....He talked about forward guidance, cutting the ECB's deposit rate or....The call was so direct and dovish that was it bordered on alarmist...In late May, Rehn said the base case was to wait longer before raising rates....In terms of economic data, there is nothing blatant to justify such a....It's clear this is all about the bond market...German yields are now below the ECB's deposit rate of -0...40% all the way out to 10 years...Yields have fallen dramatically, including in Italy where they have....Yield curves everywhere are inverted...The ECB is terrified about falling inflation expectations in markets...Easing at this point sounds like a done deal and the market is increasingly....One line of thinking is that central banks know something we don't –....But history has shown that central banks are rarely privy to special knowledge....There seems to have been a sea change on inflation views along with a bond-....To combat it, the ECB is willing to risk diving deeper into experimental policy....Is that risk worth the reward? It's tough to see how it is...Onto US and Canada Jobs...The day ahead will be a big one in terms of sorting out how the underlying US....US non-farm payrolls are forecast at 160K and that leaves the market in a....If jobs are higher than 200K, then expect a USD rally along with risk....If jobs are below 100K and earnings come in within expectations, expect a....The question becomes: "Would a string jobs report mean no July rate cut....Ashraf gives his assessment before answering this in today's Premium....In Canada, meanwhile, the country is close to the best jobs growth in a....Canada unemp rate seen at 5...5% from 5...4%, while Canada payrolls expected at 10K from 28K...A soft report will be brushed aside while one above the +10K consensus will....Traders may also consider USDCAD longs in the event that US data exceeds..
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Intraday Market Thought: Beware of Mixed Intermarket Signals
by Adam Button | Aug 7, 2019 18:33
Markets are getting a lift on a combination of technical buying off key....Risk trades are bouncing as we speak after a shaky start earlier in Asia....12 respectively...The Premium long gold trade hit its final target of 1480 earlier today,....Ashraf tweeted he will lock gains & close one of the 2 existing remaining....His rationale is laid out in the video for Premium subscribers posted below....Dovish Comments from Evans....Comments from Chicago Fed's Evans stating markets headwinds are a result....0 fall), and that Fed may be called into more accommodation, are strengthening....BEWARE momentum traders wanting to chase the prevailing moves....Recapping from Monday night (early Tuesday Asia): China posted a tighter....That short-circuiting escalating trade and economic actions and sparked a....In the S&P 500, that meant a 1...3% bounce that ended near the highs of the day but other markets were less....Broadening Inversions....The inversion of the yield curve earlier in the year has led to constant head-....Not only the 3-month/10-year curve has inverted to a -35 bps (the most inverted....01 bps) leaving only the 2-year/10-year in positive territory...Here is a tweet from Ashraf earlier in the year, which is still....Gold sent a similar signal as it rose to fresh six-year highs at 1510 amid....There is nothing magical or particularly important on the chart about $1500 but....Ashraf spent 8 mins on gold in today's Premium video, calling for the....European equities will be a spot to watch closely in the day ahead...The DAX chart is particularly compelling as it once again finished Wednesday....Any follow through in the day ahead would be ominous...Perhaps most-ominous development has been in the Australian dollar...It eeked out a tiny gain Tuesday against the US dollar but has been essentially....It's suddenly at the intersection of a slowdown in China, trade concerns and..
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Intraday Market Thought: Dow Joins SPX Record, Asia Fault Lines Sharpen
by Adam Button | Nov 4, 2019 15:04
The ASEAN summit in Thailand isn't going to get the headlines it deserves....DOW30 joins SPX500 to to new highs a, helped by Chevron and Intel, while....Comments from US officials that Chinese firms would be granted licences to....CFTC positioning showed dollar net longs at the narrowest since June 2018 and....Markets turn to Christine Lagarde's first official speech in her capacity as....South east Asia is where the trade war will be fought and China made a major....A telling moment came in a meeting with Chinese Premier Li and Australian PM....Australia's finance minister recently had harsh criticism about....Yet both sides were all smiles...China has been increasingly retributive in the face of criticism but for....China also agreed to a new comprehensive free trade agreement with New Zealand...It's all part of a push to shore up trade ties in the Indo-Pacific...The US is undoubtedly watching...Indices were alse helped by comments from US Commerce Sec Wilbur Ross that....After the conclusion of the talks, Trump invited ASEAN leaders to the US for a....At the moment, the market is cheering a US-China trade truce...In the short-term that's likely to continue as risk assets break out and....The sense right now is that the truce will last until the US election...In the bigger picture, both sides are angling for a long-term economic battle....If countries like Australia and New Zealand can parlay their importance into....That could come crashing down if they're forced to choose sides...CFTC Commitments of Traders....Speculative net futures trader positions as of the close on Tuesday...Net short denoted by - long by....EUR -53K vs -51K prior...GBP -32K vs -52K prior...JPY -20K vs -18K prior...CHF -12K vs -11K prior...CAD +44K vs +33K prior...AUD -40K vs -48K prior...NZD -40K vs -40K prior....The fall in cable shorts was the story even though the pound was virtually....That said, heading to the sidelines during any highly-charged election is....If/when there are inevitable polling blips, there will be outsized reactions...It's tough to get an edge in that situation...At the same time, the fall in shorts may also reflect a collective belief that....The other notable change is the rise in CAD longs...Again, it demonstrates the importance of politics today...The rise in longs comes after the fog was lifted on the election and left what....In the bigger picture, the overall USD net long is now at the narrowest since..
