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  • Intraday Market Thought: Powell Put?

    by Adam Button | Nov 28, 2018 12:36
    Powell Put? Chart More players in the market are looking for a dovish shift from Powell on....The US dollar strengthened Tuesday and there was talk of month-end flows...But today, GBP is the strongest of the lot...A growing sense that the Fed isn't ready to pause rate hikes...Powell speaks later (17:00 London time) in a highly-anticipated speech but those....Powell will likely prove to be less hawkish than more dovish...And will he choose to stick to the script so as not to publicly show he is....Revised US Q3 GDP data is due next...A new Premium trade in JPY will follow shortly...Vice Chair Clarida spoke Tuesday and offered only scraps for the doves...Headlines picked up on a line saying the Fed was 'much closer' to....After 200 basis points of hikes, that's hardly groundbreaking...Meanwhile his speech touted the strength of the 'robust' economy and....But he also stated the need to remain data dependent at more than occasion...It would be highly unusual for Powell's comments Wednesday to diverge from....The financial media is fixated on the dovish scraps at the moment so there'....In politics Tuesday, a German report said Trump could put 25% tariffs on all....The move could come after the G20...One take is that it would be a new phase of aggressive tariffs from Trump,....Another idea is that he likes to focus on one battle at a time and he will..

  • Intraday Market Thought: Powell Corrects Neutral

    by Adam Button | Nov 29, 2018 12:43
    Powell Corrects Neutral Chart Metals and FX were all spurred sharply higher against the US dollar after Fed....Powell said Fed funds rates rates were “just below the vicinity of neutral&....Powell also emphasized that there was no preset policy path and said officials....A new USD trade was issued yesterday evening and is already half a cent in....US core PCE is up next, expected at 1...9%....Moments earlier, German prelim Nov CPI slipped to 2...3% from 2...5%....nbsp;....تداول بعد باول فيديو المشتركين يدخل في صفقة امس...In a more-subtle shift Powell also made fewer mentions of the gradual path of....The market's take was unmistakable...The S&P 500 rallied 2...3% in the biggest climb in eight months and the US dollar fell 40-100 pips....The market continues to price in an 80% chance of a hike in December but now....Technically, cable showed signs of a double bottom at 1...2730 and may also benefit from polls showing the public warming to Theresa....The New Zealand dollar rose above the 200-day moving average for the first....Perhaps most notably, the euro traced an outside day in a rally to 1...1370 from 1...1270...The tone in Italy is moving towards a painful compromise and it's been....That said, it's been beaten down for a reason and that's poor economic....If there is going to be a sustained rally in the euro, it will need to come....German inflation fell to 2...3% from 2...5% vs exp 2...4%....The US also reports on PCE figures later in the day but you would have to..

  • Intraday Market Thought: Rare & Telling Trifecta

    by Adam Button | Dec 4, 2018 14:41
    Rare & Telling Trifecta Chart It is rare to see the US dollar, stock indices and long bond yields all falling....Could it be a telling sign of worries about global growth, especially as....The New Zealand dollar was the top performer while the pound lagged...nbsp; It was the biggest percentage daily change since February 2016...What instrument did that yesterday & what it means for USD and EM? This is....USD-Yields-Stocks in the Red....USD bulls are on the defensive ahead of Wednesday's Powell testimony to....Bond yields are pulling lower, expecially on the long end, reflecting....nbsp;....The Trump-Xi meeting was a positive step and that was reflected in a 30-point....A key one is auto tariffs...Last week Trump floated the idea of import taxes on autos from outside North....One thing to watch will be how Trump's truce with Xi plays out in the media...For the US President, the perception is as important as the reality of the deal...Markets are naturally positive and that's important to Trump but wants to....AUD/USD is caught between the downward forces of risk-off from indices and the....The overnight decision by the RBA to hold rates unchanged and signal the same..

  • Intraday Market Thought: May to Speak Ahead of Vote Delay

    by Adam Button | Dec 10, 2018 14:42
    May to Speak Ahead of Vote Delay Chart Sterling tumbles 170 pips or 0...93% to $1...2605 on PM May's decision to delay Tuesday's crucial Brexit vote in....May will address Parliament in a speech at 15:30 GMT/London...The gravity of the situation is highlighted by the unwillingness of the....Japanese GDP was revised lower in early-week trading...The USDCHF Premium short was closed for 140 pip gain...Watching Backstop Amendment....PM May was banking on the possibility of garnering sufficient support from....Whether May will table new amendments to Parliament such as the Backstop....We expect May to suggest going to Brussels (again) for further....A no-deal Brexit is the last resort...That kind of talk would roil markets and she would surely face a crisis of....Ultimately, there is no easy or obvious path for May or towards any kind of GBP-....That's mostly priced in but until there's a concrete reason to buy GBP,....The bigger picture is also a headwind for GBP...Risk aversion carried over from a dismal finish on Friday to more selling as....Commodity currencies are under pressure and the Swiss franc is higher...S&P 500 futures have retreated back into the red at 2622 after an earlier....Non-farm payrolls were modestly weak and earnings were also a touch soft but the....The Fed may have played its best card with a pause signal to after a December....The dollar has so far maintained a bid but on acute risk aversion but it may....Gold is also worth watching closely as it rallied above the October highs on....Early in the week, worries about global growth were sharpened by final Japanese....It showed a 0...6% q/q contraction, worst than 0...5% expected...Business spending was particularly soft.

  • Intraday Market Thought: May's Leadership Challenge Playbook

    by Adam Button | Dec 12, 2018 11:15
    May's Leadership Challenge Playbook Chart GBP markets turn attention away from Brexit and onto PM Theresa May's....The confidence vote shall take place around 6 pm GMT/London and is widely....More below...Risk assets have rebounded after a significantly choppy session, partly due....In 24 hours from now, attention shifts to EUR trading as the ECB unveils its....The latest Premium video below covers the 4 charts cases for the upcoming....Cable has rebounded to 1...26 after having sunk more than a cent from the highs to 1...2490s for the first time in 20 months...It was the second day of heavy selling after the Brexit bill was pulled...GBP's bounce emerges ahead of tonight's confidence vote, which is....Whether this will triggers a fresh dead-cat bounce in GBP until she goes back to....At the same time, it may not get her any closer to an EU-Brexit deal with the....If PM May loses the vote, it could be the start of a civil war within the....Several MPs could challenge for the leadership in a contest that will....Then the vote would go towards the broader members...A nightmare scenario would be a two deeply opposing candidates and a narrow....With no simple path to any kind of clarity or stability, there is no scope....There's a real risk of scenario similar to October 2016 when pound....Ashraf tells me he is increasingly certain we have seen the lows at $1...20 for cable...The next step is to worry about May's negotiations progress with the EU, the..

  • Intraday Market Thought: ECB to End 3-Year QE

    by Adam Button | Dec 13, 2018 12:14
    Just a few more words on PM Theresa May before we move on to the ECB below...May might have won a pyrrhic victory in fending off a leadership challenge...That could be the same for the pound as it rose more than 120 pips on Wednesday....Month-to-Date, silver leads all major currencies, followed by gold, CHF and....The ECB decision is up next...إستغلال إشارة المؤشرات مع اليورو فيديو المشتركين قبل لقاء المركزي الحاسم....Theresa May easily won her leadership challenge in a 200-117 vote but it came....She promised colleagues that she wouldn't run in the next general election....The problem is that she may not be able to deliver...The EU has signaled scant room for negation on the thorny Irish backstop....At the moment, the DUP says it will continue to support the Conservatives....So what's next? May said she will bring a vote back to Commons before Jan....If she loses that, there's likely a new impasse...Most still believe a no-deal Brexit is extremely unlikely but a deal around the....Delaying Article 50 is a possibility but to what ends?....إستغلال إشارة المؤشرات مع اليورو فيديو المشتركين قبل لقاء المركزي الحاسم....Ultimately, this vote only underscored that 117 of 317 Conservative MPs don'....That means there is no margin for safety for GBP either...It will remain vulnerable to headlines and Brexit uncertainty...Draghi will Like this Chart....The euro also made some gains on Wednesday amidst broad US dollar selling...It will remain in the spotlight today with the ECB decision at 12:45 London/....The ECB will end QE and reinvestment details are unlikely to matter much to....The ECB has the option of downgrading forecasts, tilting its risk assessment....If so, the headlines could boost the euro; at least in the short term...Do not forget..

  • Intraday Market Thought: Yen Flash Rally & Apple’s Warning

    by Adam Button | Jan 2, 2019 23:07
    Yen Flash Rally & Apple’s Warning Chart Yen pairs have soared at about 17:45 Eastern (22:45 GMT/London) in a similar....USDJPY collapsed from 108...90 to 104...87 in under 5 minutes...Like the pound flash crash in October 2016, the JPY flash rally has occured in....Japanese markets don't re-open til Friday (unofficially next week), which....The market was already concerned about China and Apple thew gasoline on the....nbsp; Today's new trade has been covered in detail in the Premium video....The dip below 50 in the Caixin China PMI shouldn't have been a big surprise....Equity markets showed some resilience with the S&P 500 closing slightly....The FX market was less enthusiastic as the yen crosses and Aussie remained near....The big surprise came late in the day when Apple CEO Tim Cook cut guidance for....ldquo;We did not foresee the magnitude of the economic deceleration,....Apple's letter sent shares down 8...5% in the aftermarket but also sent AUD/USD to a fresh 22-month low of 0...6970...Companies often have especially good insight into real-time trends in the....At the same time, China has been targeting Apple and that included an....Yet this isn't an isolated factor and it will put an added emphasis on....Apple's China: From Saviour to Scapegoat....Most analysts specializing in Apple agree that the downgrade of revenue....This is especially dangerous because Apple's decision to expand into..

  • Intraday Market Thought: May Survives, what’s Next?

    by Adam Button | Jan 17, 2019 11:51
    May Survives, what’s Next? Chart The pound turns stronger and less volatile...PM Theresa May's government survived a confidence vote yesterday, as widely....The latest GBP bounce is emerging after optimistic DUP comments regarding today&....Consolidation was the theme in the broader market but yen crosses made some....Euro regains 1...14 , while gold forms a bullish pennant...Yesterday's release of US retail sales did not happen due to the ongoing....We turn to the Philly Fed survey, expected  at 9...5 from 9...4 (currently the weakest since Aug 2016)....nbsp; Yesterday's two Premium trades have been filled and are in progress...فيديو المشتركين يفسر صفقتي أمس...The confidence vote in UK parliament unfolded as expected with Conservatives....Unlike a day earlier, there was no drama in the market before or after the....Cable attempts to break the 1...2940/60 resistance after holding firm  above 1...2830s...GBP/JPY recouped the entire flash-crash drop and rose to the highest levels of....Risk trades have had an impressive bounce but risks loom...On Monday, China will release retail sales, industrial production and GDP....It's also a US holiday...Ahead of the weekend, investors may look to pare risk and that could lead to....China nervousness also helps explain Aussie reluctance to break above 0...7250...Back to Customs Union & Backstop....Back to the UK...Several reports have pointed to the EU preparing for an Article 50 extension...Talk about another election remains the recurring call from Labour, but markets....nbsp; Also keep an eye on a potential change of tone regarding the Customs....As long as there are realistic chances of extending Article 50 and/or striking....The deadline for action is likely Feb 4, which would be the final day to call a....Otherwise May could push Labour and hard-Brexit members of the Conservative....They could respond with attempts to strip the PM of the opportunity for a no-....In short, the UK remains deep in a quagmire but a signs of an extension in..

  • Intraday Market Thought: Brexit Ticks Away, Loonie & ECB

    by Adam Button | Jan 23, 2019 22:43
    Brexit Ticks Away, Loonie & ECB Chart Brexit hardliners are growing more nervous amid falling prospects of a no-....The pound is sensing an opening for a deal with cable gaining more than a cent....The Premium long in GBPUSD was closed for a 200-pip gain...A new trade in commodities was issued...Australian employment is up next...The ECB conference is on Thursday 13:30 GMT - Since the ECB is not expected to....more below)....تداول حول فنيات الزخم و الدعم الإتجاهي (فيديو للمشتركين)....January 29th vote....A bill to take a no-deal Brexit off the table gained momentum Wednesday and the....In addition to the solid earnings and employment figures, the Brexit dynamics....The Boles-Cooper bill -- aimed delaying Brexit if no new agreement is reached by....Cable rose to a two-and-a-half month high of 1...3081 on signs the dreaded option could be eliminated...Jacob Rees-Mogg called for Parliament to be prorogued rather than allowing the....On that front, the EU continues to brush off the possibility of a hard timeline....Technically, cable touched slightly above the 200-day moving average...If it can hold, little separates it from the November high of 1...3175...Elsewhere the Canadian dollar hit a 2-week low after retail sales fell 0...9% in November compared to -0...6% expected...Combined with recent misses in trade and wholesale data, there is a growing risk....USDCAD attempts to regain the 55-DMA of 1...3360s...nbsp; Oil support stands at 50...00....On the flipside, CAD and oil could be propped higher if Venezuela situation....The US and many Latam nations recognized Juan Guiado as the interim leader on....The days ahead will be extremely delicate...Here is our IMT analysis from last month's ECB press coference/revision...Looking at the calendar, Australian employment data is due at 0030 GMT and....The consensus is for 18...0K jobs with unemployment steady at 5...1%..

  • Intraday Market Thought: GBP-DUP Bounce, Euro Stable, Yuan into Equation

    by Adam Button | Jan 25, 2019 12:10
    GBP-DUP Bounce, Euro Stable, Yuan into Equation Chart The euro regains half of Thursday's 95-pip decline, which was caused by a....GBP spiked around midnight on reports that the Democratic Unionist Party will....Brexit focus will shift towards a series of votes scheduled for Jan 29,....nbsp; Softer than expected IFO data from Germany failed to prevent the euro....A new Premium USD trade was issued yesterday, already in the green...US durable goods and new home sales will not be released due to the ongoing US....Also note a potentially vital development for FX traders on the US-....Draghi shifted the risks to the downside in a move that undermined the euro but....He also hinted at reluctance to use LTROs and TLTROs and that initially sent....1380 before it embarked on a long slide to 1...1290 in part due to reports saying Germany was preparing to sharply....0% from 1...8%....Ashraf tells me Draghi's dovishness was especially thought out ahead of next....It could well be Draghi was countering any potential EUR bounce from the Fed...nbsp;....Technicals will play a large part in the next move as EUR/USD approaches the....1280, the Dec low of 1...1270 and the late-November low of 1...1267...All those levels could easily be taken out in cascading stops...On the flipside, it could hold and continue to build from that base...On the flipside of the trade, US Senators may be working on a compromise....A three-week extension on its own does almost nothing for growth, sentiment or....Yuan Component of US-China Talks....Finally, the US-China trade negotiations are now divided between the camp of....More importantly for FX traders, Mnuchin is increasingly referring to the rising..
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