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  • Intraday Market Thought: A Race to Cut?

    by Adam Button | Feb 7, 2019 11:18
    A Race to Cut? Chart Hawkish central banks continue to fall like dominoes and as they do, it....USD holds to most of Wednesday's gains, while EUR drops across the board....Today's docus shifts to the Bank of England decision, particularly on the....The shift to neutral at the RBA mirrors changes at the Fed, BOC, BOE and ECB...That leaves few global central banks even contemplating hikes in the first....A new Index trade has been posted, backed by 4 charts and 5 key notes...ربط المقاومات البينية (فيديو المشتركين الآن جاهز)....Will yield differentials regain FX traders' attention? The US dollar....That was highlighted Wednesday by a grind higher in the dollar...The November trade deficit narrowed to $49...3B compared to $54...0B expected but the market reaction was slight on account of the lag in the data...In turn, the euro, pound and loonie to one-week (or more) lows...On the Brexit front, the pound continues to languish as the market continues to....A report said the Malthouse Compromise talks were in trouble and the ERG was....Cable was lower for the fifth day...GBPUSD bulls will aim to defend the 1...2860 support on a daily closing  basis...The New Zealand dollar was hit hard late in the day as the employment report....Jobs increased 0...1% compared to 0...3% expected and the unemployment rate rose to 4...3% from 3...9% despite declining participation...nbsp; The kiwi was already struggling on the day and promptly fell to 0...6765 from 0...6825...The RBNZ is quickly becoming the odds-on favourite for the first central bank to..

  • Intraday Market Thought: Mueller, Retail Sales & China Deal

    by Adam Button | Apr 18, 2019 13:15
    Mueller, Retail Sales & China Deal Chart We'll find out today why US Special Counsel Mueller declined to make a....As for the China story, Trump said there will be a “very big spike”....But as markets showed Wednesday, that's may not necessarily be the case...GBP ignores stronger than expected UK retail sales...Euro drops across the board on a series of a disappointing Eurozone PMIs...nbsp; Canada and US retail sales are due at 1230 GMT/13:30 London...Ashraf sent me this chart suggesting that gold will need to stabilise then....In the past six weeks markets have grown increasingly desensitized to soft news....Presidential leaks and tweets about progress, optimism and good feelings....True signs of progress are now falling flat as well...The WSJ reported Wednesday about plans for Lighthizer to fly to Beijing for....They wrote that the aim is to get a deal signed in late May or early June...The report had almost no effect on markets...The conclusion can only be that a trade deal is 95% priced in or more...The risk then is that there is a 'sell-the-fact' trade in light of the....We also remind that Trump's spat with China ramped up almost immediately....Trump may pivot to Europe after a China deal and create a fresh impetus to de-....Canadian and US retail sales are due later today in what will be a sharp....Beware of a drop off in liquidity and trading late in the day with most world..

  • Intraday Market Thought: World Trade Overshadowed by Indices

    by Ashraf Laidi | May 21, 2019 11:14
    World Trade Overshadowed by Indices Chart It is a session light of data with the USD edging higher and the Aussie....Global indices are in the green after a late session rebound in NY yesterday...Activity picks up tomorrow with UK CPI and Fed minutes, EU Elections on....Also watch any response from Beijing to US ban on Huawei...The video for Premium subscribers below focuses on GBP, gold and indices...A new trade action will be issued on one of our index trades...Trade Becoming a Problem....Now that the US and China have demonstrated they're in no rush to....Here are some figures: ....The WTO said in its latest report that out of the 7 indices of international....The WTO is sticking to last quarter's decision to downgrade its projections....6% from 3% in 2018...According to Bloomberg's calculation of the latest Dutch Bureau for Economic....9% in the three months ending February from the preceding 3 months, marking the....What does this all mean to FX and indices traders? Aside from Asian....Today, the probability of the Fed cutting rates in September stands at 46%....This compares to a 72% chance of a cut in December...Stock indices have cooled down to a trading range after no longer....By mid summer, markets will shift to worrying that odds of a rate cut are not....nbsp;..

  • Intraday Market Thought: ECB Nears Easing, Johnson Hardens Stance

    by Adam Button | Jul 25, 2019 13:02
    Euro drops sharply on the ECB's announcement that it will consider a....We will get more details in Draghi's press conference coming up in 15 mins....More on UK PM Boris Johnson below...A new Premium EUR trade issued with 2 supporting charts...Although there were no surprises from an ECB rate action today, all eyes turn to....Until then, odds will be clearer by the end of today's press conference...We now await to what extent will Draghi offer extra dovish signals and whether....Boris Johnson Goes on all in....Boris Johnson took his first actions as Prime Minister on Wednesday, saying he....He named Raab as his foreign secretary, Gove as Chancellor of the Duchy....May tried to build a compromise cabinet but Johnson is surrounding himself with....It also highlights that his main priority is Brexit...The thinking may be that only the hardliners will be able to push through....At the same time, it may be hard for them to credibly vote for tweaks to the....Ashraf tells me he sees the likelihood for a new UK General Election before..

  • Intraday Market Thought: Trade Talks & Low Inflation Weigh in

    by Adam Button | Oct 10, 2019 16:19
    Wild fluctuations in indices during the least liquid time of the day (post-US,....Sudden declines in equity markets on reports that China's delegation....US CPI came in lower than expected...GBP spiked over full cent to 1...2315 on an optimistic joint statement from UK and Irish PMs Johnson and....The Premium short in the DOW30 was stopped out and a video for Premium....Trade Talks' Low Bar of Expectations....Headlines will continue to dominate in the hours and days ahead but judging by....The trade meetings this week are dominating markets but a secular theme....It was something the Fed highlighted in the FOMC minutes and will be a focus in....On Wednesday, the euro was the top performer while the yen lagged...Fed's Low Inflation Trap....The Fed argument for lowering interest rates has slowly shifted from one....It's all a bit rich considering the Fed has missed its inflation target for....That's especially true because there are signs of a turn in the economy...Wednesday's JOLTS report showed the third consecutive decline in job....The level of opening remains high and the overall jobs market is very strong....With just 9 days until the blackout period begins, officials will need to..

  • Intraday Market Thought: Brexit Deal Seeks 320

    by Ashraf Laidi | Oct 18, 2019 0:14
    Brexit Deal Seeks 320 Chart GBP pushed to a fresh 5-month high of $1...2990 after news of an agreement on renegotiating the Brexit deal between....Now the deal will be voted upon by the British Parliaments in a special session....The looming danger of defeat from ongoing DUP opposition is the major....We are also watching crucial technical dynamics in US & European equity....The DAX30- trade was stopped out early Thursday and 2 new Premium trades were....The new deal differs from Theresa May's Withdrawal Agreement via more....The latter will remain an entry point into the EU's customs zone and....Fighting for 320....Considering the DUP's opposition, in order to obtain the minimum 320 votes....The key question is will enough Labour MPs vote for the deal to reach the total....One crucial issue is the “constituency factor”, which could..

  • Intraday Market Thought: Corona Virus Weighs on Risk, Oil Dumped

    by Adam Button | Jan 23, 2020 8:12
    Corona Virus Weighs on Risk, Oil Dumped Chart The coronavirus is increasingly drawing the attention of the financial markets....Chinese officials halted travel from Wuhan, locking down the city of 11....More below on how this compares to SARS in 2003...Aussie is the highest gainer on reduced expectations for an RBA rate cut next....Global indices are down across the board, oil extends its tumble, CAD fell....nbsp;  The Premium trades in short oil and long cable are deepening in the....نستعد للإنطلاق الحقيقي (فيديو للمشتركين)....Corona Virus Now vs SARS in 2003....The outbreak of the Corona virus is especially scrutinized as it coincides....Beijing is one of the most traffic-jammed cities in the world, but it's....The city was on lockdown and virtually every face was covered by a mask...The economic impacts were real, estimates vary but the curb to GDP....8 percentage points and 2...0 points...It also weighed on other countries, particularly in east Asia...SARS eventually infected more than 5000 people in China and the path of....In that case, the WHO issued the first alert in mid-March and didn't....Ultimately, this virus will pass and growth will resume but we're at the....One area that was hard hit in 2003 was commodities, which struggled during the....However this will ultimately be a buying opportunity for risk assets, but not..

  • Intraday Market Thought: Virus Inflection Point

    by Adam Button | Feb 10, 2020 16:55
    Virus Inflection Point Chart China has taken unprecedented steps to halt what surely would have been a....Markets are rallying on reports that FoxConn has received approval to re-open....The chart below suggests that markets may also be starting to focus on the....Higher China CPI to start the week sparked some worries about PBOC....Fed chair Powell will testify to Congress on Wednesday and Thursday...As coronavirus case hit 40,000 and deaths surpass SARS, the market remains....Incredible, if not draconian, measures by Chinese officials have slowed the....Yet as we learn more about the virus and some parts of China head back to work,....New daily cases have leveled off around 3000 in recent days and that's cause....Skeptics might conclude that testing capability is strained and that would-be....Rumors are rampant but the market has been trading on official news and hasn&....The week ahead will be a major test because parts of China's economy....One area to watch particularly closely is Indonesia...All its neighbours have cases and travel patterns show there should be some....Recovery and countermeasures....Nervousness re-emerged from the World Health Organization on concerns over the....But reports from the central govt announcing it will spend over $10....The PBOC is also said to start injecting the first part of re-lending facilities....CFTC Commitments of Traders....Speculative net futures trader positions as of the close on Tuesday...Net short denoted by - long by....EUR -75K vs -59K prior...GBP +13K vs +18K prior...JPY -21K vs -36K prior...CHF +5K vs +3...5 prior...CAD +19K vs +35K prior...AUD -43K vs -27K prior...NZD -2K vs +2K..

  • Intraday Market Thought: Why the Euro Keeps on Falling

    by Adam Button | Feb 19, 2020 16:37
    Before we cover the euro, we must give mention to the yen's breakdown as....10 resistance to a 9-month high of 111...32...The move emerges alongside a new high in the SP500 and DAX30, while DOW30....China's annnouncement of further support for affected supply chains has....The USDJPY short was finally stopped out as stops cascaded through 111...30s...CAD and EUR are the only gainers vs the strengthening USD...US building permits were string but housing starts fell...Canada CPI was mixed...All eyes turn to the FOMC minutes and any new insights on the Fed's....A new Premium trade has been issued to clients in a non-FX markets, backed by 3....EUR/USD is up today, but has fallen in 3 out of the last 13 sessions...The euro has fallen virtually every day this month and the number one reason is....The 'expectations' component of Tuesday's ZEW sentiment survey fell to +8...7 from +26...7; far short of the +21...5 consensus in the latest example...Another factor is that the euro has solidified itself as a low-yielder,....Bloomberg highlighted how single-A rated LVMH was able to launch the largest....Those borrowing conditions are going to entice foreign companies to borrow in....The third crucial factor is China...Owing to the trade war, China-US trade has been the focus of the past two years....Europe is highly-dependent on exports to China and its slate of exports –....In short, Europe is more vulnerable to coronavirus weakness than some other....Finally and critically, the eurozone has hamstrung its ability to respond to an....Markets are increasingly convinced that any economic weakness in the US, China,....That's not the case for the eurozone...Along the same lines, the FOMC minutes are due at 1900 GMT and could offer....The market is now pricing in an 82% chance of a cut in July.

  • Intraday Market Thought: The Coronavirus Positioning

    by Adam Button | Feb 25, 2020 16:02
    The Coronavirus Positioning Chart Markets gets caught in a fresh round of selling after a brief reprive in early....VIX pushing to 24...87, DOW30 eyes the Dec 3rd low and SPX nears the 100-DMA of 3164...GBP is the best performer, followed by JPY and CHF...No one wants to see a global pandemic but experts and the market are....If it comes, which global assets will suffer and which ones will appreciate?....تطبيق التوازن بين الخوف و الطمع (فيديو للمشتركين)....On Monday the market got a taste of what the pandemic trade may look like as....We have repeatedly highlighted the bond market as a spot to watch and it was the....It may also be just a taste of what's next with a Fed cut in April now....If a pandemic hits, the Fed will likely cut all the way to zero and pull rates....In times of trouble, bonds are always a clear winner...That isn't always the case for gold and precious metals but it will be this....Technically, gold has broken out in a big way and there is little resistance....In FX, we may have gotten a taste of the trade Monday as the yen led the way and....Last week's squeeze on the yen raised some Japan-specific risks and....The other side of that trade is equally interesting...The loonie has held up well recently compared to AUD and NZD but that may....The latest South Korea business sentiment survey may offer a hint of....It fell on Tuesday to 84...4 from 92...0.
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