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  • Intraday Market Thought: Into ECB & NAFTA

    by Adam Button | Mar 8, 2018 12:40
    Markets stabilise on reports that Trump will expempt NAFTA countries from....As we move to the ECB press conference, all currencies are down against the USD....Draghi's press conference will focus on the ECB's latest revisions for....EURUSD pushed higher after the ECB rates announcement removed the reference to....The focus was squarely on the Canadian dollar on Wednesday and it delivered a....The loonie slumped after the Bank of Canada highlighted trade worries and....A s a result USD/CAD climbed to 1...3000 from 1...2910...But some of those worries may be quickly calmed if reports that Trump will....The market reacted by erasing the move in USD/CAD and sending it back to 1...2900...The possibility of a waiver was something we warned about yesterday...The that shift also helped stock markets recover into a flat close...In the bigger picture, the landscape remains deeply unsettled...Relief for Canada and Mexico might be coming but that leaves the rest of the....Cohn's exit may also highlight that tariffs and are part of a broader White....Another troubling development was an increase in the US trade deficit in....6B compared to $55...0B expected, including a record in the deficit excluding petroleum...The sharp deterioration in the past four months suggests the tax cut funds are....In turn, that will make Trump more likely to take dramatic actions on trade.

  • Intraday Market Thought: USD Grinds Lower Pre CPI

    by Adam Button | Mar 12, 2018 22:02
    USD Grinds Lower Pre CPI Chart The ebb in the US dollar continued Monday as the fallout from non-farm....CHF was Tuesday's top performer, while CAD...Australian home loans data highlights the Asia-Pacific session...فيديو للمشتركين حول ال 11صفقة...The absence of economic data for North American traders kept the focus on....Finance Minister Aso is embroiled in a real estate scandal and that's....Aso is considering not attending this month's G20 meeting...Meanwhile, the ebb and flow of Brexit news gave the pound a lift and cable is....Politics were largely a non-factor and US stock markets were flat...Trump is reportedly interviewing Larry Kudlow to lead his economic team...He is an unabashed free trader and is strongly anti-tariff so that would be a....Looking ahead, January Australian home loans data is due at 0030 GMT and....2% after a 2...3% drop in December...AUD has been a strong performer since Friday and is trading at a two-week high...The rebound comes after a miserable February but the RBA is slowly growing....The flipside is that commodities are beginning to struggle...Iron ore has fallen in seven consecutive sessions as uncertainty on steel mounts.

  • Intraday Market Thought: Selling in May the Italian Way

    by Adam Button | May 29, 2018 11:46
    Selling in May the Italian Way Chart Global markets selloff across the board as Italy's political uncertainty....Italian 2-year yields hit a 6-year highs as bond prices tumbled, EURUSD broke....16 to a fresh 10 month lows, while the yen soared against all currencies,....40...Initially, markets cheered when Italy's President rejected euroskeptic....After climbing to 1...1730 the euro sank to a fresh six-month low of 1...1604, stopping out the Premium EURUSD trade...A new JPY trade will be issued shortly...The market selloffs were amplified by thinned activity during the holidays in....Former IMF economist Carlo Cottarelli has been asked by Italy's president....Five-Star Leader Di Maio has called for protests on June 2 and new elections as....nbsp; Both parties will frame a new vote as upstarts versus the establishment....At best, the outcome is uncertain and the threat of protests and unrests....Markets tend to bottom when the light at the end of the tunnel is in sight but....Another move in thin trading Monday was a rise in USD/CAD above 1...3000 for the first time in two months...Oil prices were down another 2% and that was the main driver but the market is..

  • Intraday Market Thought: AUD/USD Perky Ahead of RBA

    by Adam Button | Jun 4, 2018 22:42
    AUD/USD Perky Ahead of RBA Chart The Australian dollar broke out to a five-week high and was the was the top....The yen lagged as risk appetite generally improved...The RBA decision is up next...The Premium long in AUDUSD issued 2 weeks ago is currently 130 pips in the....On Monday, 2 new trades were issued...إستغلال الإستقرار (فيديو للمشتركين)....AUD/USD climbed higher after rising above the May high of 0...7605 as the US dollar lost ground...An upbeat tone in equity markets helped AUD and other commodity currencies as....USD was slumping early Monday but a small bid appeared in early New York....The lone US data point was a 0...8% dip in April factory orders compared to -0...5% expected, led by a dip in transportation orders...It follows a 1...6% rise in March...Core capital goods orders weren't revised from the preliminary +0...9% reading...Cable reversed early gains to finish lower at 1...3315...Theresa May relayed the details of a phone call with Trump where she....Previously, she had positioned herself as more of a Trump ally but it's....Up next is the RBA decision at 0430 GMT...The market isn't pricing in any chance of a hike or a cut and looking....50% is forecast, with a 50% chance of a single rate rise by this time next year...The Aussie suddenly has a hint of wind at its back...If Lowe can stoke some optimism about growth, then it's blue skies above..

  • Intraday Market Thought: No Doubts From Draghi

    by Adam Button | Sep 25, 2018 13:33
    The euro is the top performer of the day after Draghi's comments yesterday&....Attempts from ECB's Praet to cool off the gains worked temporarily...The pound is also performing strongly today, while the franc is the only loser....After the ECB decision, reports leaked out that some members of the governing....In comments in Brussels Monday he said they see a vigorous pickup in underlying....The comments immediately sent the euro to the highest since June at 1...1815...Yet, news from Draghi's native Italy helped to pull the euro back lower as....95% on fears of a larger Italian budget deficit that could destabilize the....The government has until Thursday to unveil a budget package and whether or....The numbers could be announced at any time and leaks/details could also move....In the bigger picture, the US dollar rebounded Monday and oil rallied 2%....Economic data and news in North American trading remain light...Wednesday's FOMC rate hike, dot plot and press conference will be the..

  • Intraday Market Thought: During a Losing Trade

    by Ashraf Laidi | Feb 1, 2019 15:09
    During a Losing Trade Chart Here's an example of how proper inter-metal technical analysis can....On Oct 16, we issued a LONG trade in silver for the Premium subscribers at 14...80 with the rationale that the impending inverted H&S formation was about to....Well, it did not break it right away...Instead, silver continued to drop, extending towards the head (lows) of 13...96 over the ensuing 4 weeks...The stop remained at 13...80...So how did we manage the positon and thinking? (here's the snapshot of....On Nov 9th (as the trade was deteriorating), I issued a trade update....Please see the text under the charts and feel free to look at your own charts....Gold remained above the trendline support from the Nov 14 lows and....Some may say copper went on to break below the right shoulder later in early....Yes, but by the time that occurred, silver was well off its low and gold....The message was crucial...Silver, being the smaller and relatively less liquid market was vulnerable to....A similar approach was applied to USDX vs EURUSD vs USDCNY...I long said in summer and autumn during the days of USD strength that only a....0 in USD/CNH would indicate the next leg-up in USD momentum and not EURUSD 1...11, USDJPY 115 or GBPUSD 1...26...nbsp; Sometimes, it is invaluable to know where to look without moving the..

  • Intraday Market Thought: A Race to Cut?

    by Adam Button | Feb 7, 2019 11:18
    A Race to Cut? Chart Hawkish central banks continue to fall like dominoes and as they do, it....USD holds to most of Wednesday's gains, while EUR drops across the board....Today's docus shifts to the Bank of England decision, particularly on the....The shift to neutral at the RBA mirrors changes at the Fed, BOC, BOE and ECB...That leaves few global central banks even contemplating hikes in the first....A new Index trade has been posted, backed by 4 charts and 5 key notes...ربط المقاومات البينية (فيديو المشتركين الآن جاهز)....Will yield differentials regain FX traders' attention? The US dollar....That was highlighted Wednesday by a grind higher in the dollar...The November trade deficit narrowed to $49...3B compared to $54...0B expected but the market reaction was slight on account of the lag in the data...In turn, the euro, pound and loonie to one-week (or more) lows...On the Brexit front, the pound continues to languish as the market continues to....A report said the Malthouse Compromise talks were in trouble and the ERG was....Cable was lower for the fifth day...GBPUSD bulls will aim to defend the 1...2860 support on a daily closing  basis...The New Zealand dollar was hit hard late in the day as the employment report....Jobs increased 0...1% compared to 0...3% expected and the unemployment rate rose to 4...3% from 3...9% despite declining participation...nbsp; The kiwi was already struggling on the day and promptly fell to 0...6765 from 0...6825...The RBNZ is quickly becoming the odds-on favourite for the first central bank to..

  • Intraday Market Thought: Mueller, Retail Sales & China Deal

    by Adam Button | Apr 18, 2019 13:15
    Mueller, Retail Sales & China Deal Chart We'll find out today why US Special Counsel Mueller declined to make a....As for the China story, Trump said there will be a “very big spike”....But as markets showed Wednesday, that's may not necessarily be the case...GBP ignores stronger than expected UK retail sales...Euro drops across the board on a series of a disappointing Eurozone PMIs...nbsp; Canada and US retail sales are due at 1230 GMT/13:30 London...Ashraf sent me this chart suggesting that gold will need to stabilise then....In the past six weeks markets have grown increasingly desensitized to soft news....Presidential leaks and tweets about progress, optimism and good feelings....True signs of progress are now falling flat as well...The WSJ reported Wednesday about plans for Lighthizer to fly to Beijing for....They wrote that the aim is to get a deal signed in late May or early June...The report had almost no effect on markets...The conclusion can only be that a trade deal is 95% priced in or more...The risk then is that there is a 'sell-the-fact' trade in light of the....We also remind that Trump's spat with China ramped up almost immediately....Trump may pivot to Europe after a China deal and create a fresh impetus to de-....Canadian and US retail sales are due later today in what will be a sharp....Beware of a drop off in liquidity and trading late in the day with most world..

  • Intraday Market Thought: World Trade Overshadowed by Indices

    by Ashraf Laidi | May 21, 2019 11:14
    World Trade Overshadowed by Indices Chart It is a session light of data with the USD edging higher and the Aussie....Global indices are in the green after a late session rebound in NY yesterday...Activity picks up tomorrow with UK CPI and Fed minutes, EU Elections on....Also watch any response from Beijing to US ban on Huawei...The video for Premium subscribers below focuses on GBP, gold and indices...A new trade action will be issued on one of our index trades...Trade Becoming a Problem....Now that the US and China have demonstrated they're in no rush to....Here are some figures: ....The WTO said in its latest report that out of the 7 indices of international....The WTO is sticking to last quarter's decision to downgrade its projections....6% from 3% in 2018...According to Bloomberg's calculation of the latest Dutch Bureau for Economic....9% in the three months ending February from the preceding 3 months, marking the....What does this all mean to FX and indices traders? Aside from Asian....Today, the probability of the Fed cutting rates in September stands at 46%....This compares to a 72% chance of a cut in December...Stock indices have cooled down to a trading range after no longer....By mid summer, markets will shift to worrying that odds of a rate cut are not....nbsp;..

  • Intraday Market Thought: ECB Nears Easing, Johnson Hardens Stance

    by Adam Button | Jul 25, 2019 13:02
    Euro drops sharply on the ECB's announcement that it will consider a....We will get more details in Draghi's press conference coming up in 15 mins....More on UK PM Boris Johnson below...A new Premium EUR trade issued with 2 supporting charts...Although there were no surprises from an ECB rate action today, all eyes turn to....Until then, odds will be clearer by the end of today's press conference...We now await to what extent will Draghi offer extra dovish signals and whether....Boris Johnson Goes on all in....Boris Johnson took his first actions as Prime Minister on Wednesday, saying he....He named Raab as his foreign secretary, Gove as Chancellor of the Duchy....May tried to build a compromise cabinet but Johnson is surrounding himself with....It also highlights that his main priority is Brexit...The thinking may be that only the hardliners will be able to push through....At the same time, it may be hard for them to credibly vote for tweaks to the....Ashraf tells me he sees the likelihood for a new UK General Election before..
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