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Results: 741 to 750 of 1,000
Results: 741 to 750 of 1,000
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Intraday Market Thought: Capital Key to the Euro
by Ashraf Laidi | Jul 21, 2016 3:22
The euro was calm ahead of the ECB decision but the reaction on Thursday....GBP was the top performer on the day while the yen underperformed all....NZD took another tumble in early Thursday Pacific trade after the RBNZ....The calculator below shows NZD is the worst performing currency so far this....The ECB is running out of bonds to buy...The central bank has bought more than 900 billion euros in its various QE....7 trillion target...Those rules are referred to as the capital key and various 'sources'....Otherwise, the meeting is rumored to be focused on banking issues and a move on....The problem at the moment is that the ECB can't buy sovereign bonds with a....4%....It also must buy bonds in ratios that correspond to the size of each Eurozone....What's limiting purchases is finding enough bonds to buy, particularly....4%....There are constraints in other programs as well, such as supranational bonds and....A main restriction is the ban on buying bank debt...Loosening that may solve financial sector problems and QE restraints but it....The issue is that any solution to the shortage would create a liquidity or....The aim for Draghi will be to slowly expand the universe of buy-able bonds....It's a tricky task but it's also critical to his ability to go beyond....7 trillion in promised QE...The aim for Draghi will be a smooth delivery, rather than a combative....He may attempt to hide the changes in dull language but that's a dangerous....If he can deliver some effective changes or lay clear groundwork to make them in....Otherwise, the focus will be on his overall assessment of the economy...Watch for upbeat comments in-line with other central bank positivity as the....An interesting turn in GBP trading came Wednesday as the BOE's Forbes wrote....It helped to lift the pound and threatens to undermine the market's....Technically, USD/JPY broke above the pre-Brexit high Wednesday...The gains came after a report the Japanese government could deliver a 20T....That's about double what had been rumored and another sign Abe and Kuroda....Another central bank that's in focus is the RBNZ...Last week, they announced the special publication of an economic update...That was taken to be a sign of a downgrade in economic forecasts that....The report is due at 2100 GMT.
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Intraday Market Thought: Central Bank Jawbreaker
by Adam Button | Aug 16, 2016 0:12
We look at the market's indifference to US factory data, brewing problems in....The Australian dollar was the top performer Monday while the pound lagged...The RBNZ's Wheeler and the RBA Minutes are up next...The Dow trade was stopped out at 18,660, leaving 6 trades in progress...In economic data Monday, the Empire Fed manufacturing index fell to -4...2 compared to +2...5 expected...The miss hardly elicited a response...Manufacturing has struggled at various times since the crises but has never....Increasingly, the market is indifferent to US factory data...One set of data that's growing in important is Canadian housing...The 15% foreign buyers tax on the West coast and rumblings of similar moves....July existing home sales fell 1...3% compared to 0...9% expected...Canadian house prices were up 9...9% y/y in a poor economy and officials are increasingly concerned...Fin Min Morneau on Monday said the government is focused on minimizing....They may be able to shield the financial sector but deflating a bubble is a tall....In central banking, the trend is openness; in the sense that officials....In a letter Monday, the Fed's Williams mulled raising the Fed's....In the pre-crisis era, central banks worked by raising or lowering rates in....Markets are now demanding more creative policymaking and punishing currencies....Much of what Williams is proposing is changing the communication function...What he's underestimating is how badly central bank credibility has been....Targets, forecasts and even mandates have been missed so badly that markets....Japan is a prime example of all the issues and yesterday's dismal GDP....Looking ahead, the RBNZ's Wheeler is slated to speak at 2230 GMT...At 1:30 GMT, the latest RBA Minutes are due up...The policy outlook will likely mirror the latest statement and offer nothing..
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Premium: Vacation is out, Volatility in
by Ashraf Laidi | Sep 13, 2016 1:06Update: Sep 14, 2016 16:27 GMT....CLOSING EURGBP long at 0...8540 (instead of the stated 0...8820) from the 0...8420 entry, for 120-pip gain...Please see EURGBP section below for further detail...Update: Sep 14, 2016 8:01 GMT....Issuing a new GBPUSD short ahead of today's UK jobs and Thursday's....Update: Sep 13, 2016 3:20 GMT....Returning.. -
Intraday Market Thought: The Poloz Plan, AUD Employment & Debate
by Adam Button | Oct 19, 2016 22:34
Central bankers walk a fine line where a surprise can often stimulate an economy....Reading between the lines, the Bank of Canada seems to be setting something up....The Australian dollar was the top performer Wednesday while the pound....The Fed's Dudley and Australian employment are due next...A new Premium trade shall be issued ahead of tonight's Presidential....مخاطر الصفقات حول الوظائف الأسترالية، حوار كلنتون-ترامب و لقاء المركزي....As we expected, the BOC didn't downgrade its forecasts as much as....That sent USD/CAD a cent lower to 1...3000...The surprise came later when Poloz said they “actively discussed”....It led to a reversal in USD/CAD and eventually to a session high 1...3137 as oil climbed on another tighter inventory report...The strategy for the BOC is to hint that a hike could be on the table without....One of the lessons of the past couple years of central bank decisions is that....When central bankers clearly foreshadow a hike, the market expects it then....The result is for markets to end up unimpressed...A surprise, on the other hand, can help to trigger the animal spirits and grab....The risk is that markets are overly surprised and worry the central bank....Poloz walked that line in the past and delivered a surprise rate cut in 2015....In all likelihood, he's setting up something similar for early 2016...The BOC is clearly not in neutral mode but it judged that market pricing of....The risk is that he's shown his hand because the market has seen it before....What might make that difficult is that oil is trading at the highest since July....What could give the US dollar a tailwind is the Fed...Dudley is on the agenda at 2345 GMT and could offer hints on a December rate....However, the topic of the speech is NYC economic history so it's equally....One thing on the agenda that's sure to move markets is the Australian....The consensus is for a +15K rise but watch the full/part-time breakdown...Technically, AUD/USD broke and closed above the key 0...7700 level Wednesday...That's the highest close since April although several intraday peaks in the....7756...That's a level to watch through the data.
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Intraday Market Thought: Ashraf's London Seminar Thursday
by Ashraf Laidi | Dec 3, 2017 14:35This Thursday, Ashraf will hold a special in-house seminar in partnership....Will a Fed rate hike matter for the US Dollar, or will the ECB steal the show?....Will gold's technical stability turn to the breakout long anticipated by....Technicals of UK100, GER30 and US30 Reserve your seat.. -
Premium: USD Anti-appetite?
by Ashraf Laidi | Apr 16, 2018 12:59
Update: Apr 20, 2018 14:25 GMT....Short DAX30 for those who were stopped out at the 12640...Update: Apr 19, 2018 17:20 GMT....Long GBPUSD with 2 charts and note as signalled in this week's video...Update: Apr 16, 2018 21:30 GMT....Bolstering the Secular Trade....Shorting USDCAD as per last week's trade close.
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Intraday Market Thought: Gold Requires More Pullback
by Ashraf Laidi | Mar 1, 2019 17:54
Gold posts its biggest weekly decline since August...Bulls will tell you a pause in gold is long overdue after 4 consecutive monthly....Technical bears will tell us 1350 proved to be the end of a Cup formation, which....Fundamental bears will point to USD being the strongest of the rest, which....So what's likely to happen? With regards to US relative strength, that is....The left charts indicate that the US economic surprise index (according to....Whether this suggests that any upside in the US-Eurozone yield spread is limited,....As for gold, we have a long trade in gold for our Premium subscribers at 1280,....We'll watch 1296 as the area to defend the weekly close, a break of....Keep an eye on the returning deadline of the US debt ceiling, this month's....More importantly, we'll keep on the support levels in silver and copper as..
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Intraday Market Thought: From Patient Trump to Patient Fed
by Adam Button | Jun 19, 2019 12:55
Markets in quiet mode ahead of the Fed decision/press conference following a....GBP traders await the 3rd ballot for PM contenders about 1 hour before the Fed....US President Trump reached out with a phone call to Chinese President Xi on....The announcement spurred already rallying indices after Draghi's....UK May CPI slipped to 2...0% from 2...1%....Both DOW30 and FTSE100 trades were stopped out...A new trade ahead of the FOMC decision will be released this afternoon...nbsp;فيديو المشتركين كيفية التمركز قبل الفدرالي...Trump revealed the change in tone via a tweet saying they will have extended....Staff level talks will also restart ahead of the meeting...At the same time, the reaction in Chinese media to the talks was tepid...They highlighted that it was the US that reached out and said the chances of a....That's a hint that China hasn't wavered in its red lines...USD/JPY immediately jumped 45 pips on the headline and the news added to an....Gains earlier had been spurred by Mario Draghi, who said the ECB would act....That's a reversal from his stance two weeks ago when he pledged action....USDJPY continues to face resistance at 108...80...The combined news led to a jump in global equities, including 1% in the S&....The challenge now is that markets are pricing in both lower rates and a....In reality, the Fed will be pained to cut rates if a China-US deal is on track...An insurance-style cut would still be possible but not the 3-4 cuts over the....Will Fed patience pay?....After having shifted to a neutral stance at the start of the year, the Fed is....The majorty of US data sets over the last 6 weeks have come in below....nbsp;....For the Fed, 'patience' is key...Recent statements have indicated the FOMC would be 'patient' in....If that's removed, it's a strong signal that a rate cut is coming in....Nonetheless, it may be paired with conditionality and the lack of an....The conditionality could relate to the trade war, inflation data or the....With the market already pricing in a nearly 90% chance of a cut, anything....Officials may also use a fresh set of projections along with Powell's....The central tendency of the Fed funds projection is 2...4-2...9% at the end of 2020 and 2...4-2...6%....Both of those will undoubtedly be revised down, but will need to at least....25%-2...50% range to keep the market happy...We must also watch the inflation forecasts and Powell's conference....Overall, the market has priced in an aggressive path from the Fed that would....It may be too early for that and the knee-jerk risks are towards....At the same time, Powell will attempt to keep a cut on the table and highlight....That may be enough to halt any reactionary moves quickly...A new trade for Premium Insights clients is due hours before the Fed decision...Pound rallies on Stewart ahead of 3rd Ballot....Elsewhere, the pound rebounded from five-month lows as staunch Brexiter Dominic....GBP-friendly candidate Rory Stewart continued to be the fastest gainer (but....Another vote takes place today around 6pm London time, with Stewart and Javid....Earlier today, GBP edged up even as UK CPI slipped to 2...0% from 2...1%....Another disappointment would give Carney a reason to soften his warnings that..
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Hot-Chart: DAX Metamorphosis
by Ashraf Laidi | Jul 30, 2019 18:17
The Daily DAX30 chart below may appear confusing at first, but it's worth....Is this case of a metamorphosis from one textbook formation to another? We think....Getting to the point: The formation starts with an inverse head-&....The 12,655 objective then initiates a head-&-shoulders (bearish) formation,....For the tradable implications of this formation and other trades, please tune....Does it appear too good to be true? If valid, the current formation suggests an....Would this be achieved this week once markets are dissatisfied with a mere 25-....With regards to that 12650 high reached at the start of July, we predicted it 3..
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Intraday Market Thought: Risk Trades Escalate, Virus Cases Dip Pre Powell
by Adam Button | Feb 11, 2020 14:38The drift further higher in risk trades continues as China reported fewer new....USD is off across the board (w/ the exception against JPY) after Fed Chair....More market action could ensue after Powell immerses himself in the Q&A....GBP resumes gains after UK Q4 GDP came in at 1...1% y/y vs exp 0...8% y/y...One of EURUSD Premium trades was stopped out and a new trade has been ....China reported 2,478 coronavirus cases compared to 3,062 a day earlier and that....US equities finished with a flourish on Monday with the S&P 500 up 24 points...A red flat continues to be in bonds where Treasury yields fell 3 bps to....50%....One way to square the divergence is the expectation that the Fed will stay lower....It's the same one-way bet that has kept risk trades bid for months...If the coronavirus fizzles it will be one of the great achievements in public....We're months away from the all-clear but AUD/USD presents significant value if....It probed through 0...6700 last week to financial-crisis lows but has rebounded back above...Here is what happened the last time Powell spoke 11 days ago.
