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  • Intraday Market Thought: The Poloz Plan, AUD Employment & Debate

    by Adam Button | Oct 19, 2016 22:34
    The Poloz Plan, AUD Employment & Debate Chart Central bankers walk a fine line where a surprise can often stimulate an economy....Reading between the lines, the Bank of Canada seems to be setting something up....The Australian dollar was the top performer Wednesday while the pound....The Fed's Dudley and Australian employment are due next...A new Premium trade shall be issued ahead of tonight's Presidential....مخاطر الصفقات حول الوظائف الأسترالية، حوار كلنتون-ترامب و لقاء المركزي....As we expected, the BOC didn't downgrade its forecasts as much as....That sent USD/CAD a cent lower to 1...3000...The surprise came later when Poloz said they “actively discussed”....It led to a reversal in USD/CAD and eventually to a session high 1...3137 as oil climbed on another tighter inventory report...The strategy for the BOC is to hint that a hike could be on the table without....One of the lessons of the past couple years of central bank decisions is that....When central bankers clearly foreshadow a hike, the market expects it then....The result is for markets to end up unimpressed...A surprise, on the other hand, can help to trigger the animal spirits and grab....The risk is that markets are overly surprised and worry the central bank....Poloz walked that line in the past and delivered a surprise rate cut in 2015....In all likelihood, he's setting up something similar for early 2016...The BOC is clearly not in neutral mode but it judged that market pricing of....The risk is that he's shown his hand because the market has seen it before....What might make that difficult is that oil is trading at the highest since July....What could give the US dollar a tailwind is the Fed...Dudley is on the agenda at 2345 GMT and could offer hints on a December rate....However, the topic of the speech is NYC economic history so it's equally....One thing on the agenda that's sure to move markets is the Australian....The consensus is for a +15K rise but watch the full/part-time breakdown...Technically, AUD/USD broke and closed above the key 0...7700 level Wednesday...That's the highest close since April although several intraday peaks in the....7756...That's a level to watch through the data.

  • Intraday Market Thought: Ashraf's London Seminar Thursday

    by Ashraf Laidi | Dec 3, 2017 14:35
    This Thursday, Ashraf will hold a special in-house seminar in partnership....Will a Fed rate hike matter for the US Dollar, or will the ECB steal the show?....Will gold's technical stability turn to the breakout long anticipated by....Technicals of UK100, GER30 and US30  Reserve your seat..

  • Premium: USD Anti-appetite?

    by Ashraf Laidi | Apr 16, 2018 12:59
    USD Anti-appetite? Chart Update: Apr 20, 2018 14:25 GMT....Short DAX30 for those who were stopped out at the 12640...Update: Apr 19, 2018 17:20 GMT....Long GBPUSD with 2 charts and note as signalled in this week's video...Update: Apr 16, 2018 21:30 GMT....Bolstering the Secular Trade....Shorting USDCAD as per last week's trade close.

  • Intraday Market Thought: Gold Requires More Pullback

    by Ashraf Laidi | Mar 1, 2019 17:54
    Gold Requires More Pullback Chart Gold posts its biggest weekly decline since August...Bulls will tell you a pause in gold is long overdue after 4 consecutive monthly....Technical bears will tell us 1350 proved to be the end of a Cup formation, which....Fundamental bears will point to USD being the strongest of the rest, which....So what's likely to happen? With regards to US relative strength, that is....The left charts indicate that the US economic surprise index (according to....Whether this suggests that any upside in the US-Eurozone yield spread is limited,....As for gold, we have a long trade in gold for our Premium subscribers at 1280,....We'll watch 1296 as the area to defend the weekly close, a break of....Keep an eye on the returning deadline of the US debt ceiling, this month's....More importantly, we'll keep on the support levels in silver and copper as..

  • Intraday Market Thought: From Patient Trump to Patient Fed

    by Adam Button | Jun 19, 2019 12:55
    From Patient Trump to Patient Fed Chart Markets in quiet mode ahead of the Fed decision/press conference following a....GBP traders await the 3rd ballot for PM contenders about 1 hour before the Fed....US President Trump reached out with a phone call to Chinese President Xi on....The announcement spurred already rallying indices after Draghi's....UK May CPI slipped to 2...0% from 2...1%....Both DOW30 and FTSE100 trades were stopped out...A new trade ahead of the FOMC decision will be released this afternoon...nbsp;فيديو المشتركين كيفية التمركز قبل الفدرالي...Trump revealed the change in tone via a tweet saying they will have extended....Staff level talks will also restart ahead of the meeting...At the same time, the reaction in Chinese media to the talks was tepid...They highlighted that it was the US that reached out and said the chances of a....That's a hint that China hasn't wavered in its red lines...USD/JPY immediately jumped 45 pips on the headline and the news added to an....Gains earlier had been spurred by Mario Draghi, who said the ECB would act....That's a reversal from his stance two weeks ago when he pledged action....USDJPY continues to face resistance at 108...80...The combined news led to a jump in global equities, including 1% in the S&....The challenge now is that markets are pricing in both lower rates and a....In reality, the Fed will be pained to cut rates if a China-US deal is on track...An insurance-style cut would still be possible but not the 3-4 cuts over the....Will Fed patience pay?....After having shifted to a neutral stance at the start of the year, the Fed is....The majorty of US data sets over the last 6 weeks have come in below....nbsp;....For the Fed, 'patience' is key...Recent statements have indicated the FOMC would be 'patient' in....If that's removed, it's a strong signal that a rate cut is coming in....Nonetheless, it may be paired with conditionality and the lack of an....The conditionality could relate to the trade war, inflation data or the....With the market already pricing in a nearly 90% chance of a cut, anything....Officials may also use a fresh set of projections along with Powell's....The central tendency of the Fed funds projection is 2...4-2...9% at the end of 2020 and 2...4-2...6%....Both of those will undoubtedly be revised down, but will need to at least....25%-2...50% range to keep the market happy...We must also watch the inflation forecasts and Powell's conference....Overall, the market has priced in an aggressive path from the Fed that would....It may be too early for that and the knee-jerk risks are towards....At the same time, Powell will attempt to keep a cut on the table and highlight....That may be enough to halt any reactionary moves quickly...A new trade for Premium Insights clients is due hours before the Fed decision...Pound rallies on Stewart ahead of 3rd Ballot....Elsewhere, the pound rebounded from five-month lows as staunch Brexiter Dominic....GBP-friendly candidate Rory Stewart continued to be the fastest gainer (but....Another vote takes place today around 6pm London time, with Stewart and Javid....Earlier today, GBP edged up even as UK CPI slipped to 2...0%  from 2...1%....Another disappointment would give Carney a reason to soften his warnings that..

  • Hot-Chart: DAX Metamorphosis

    by Ashraf Laidi | Jul 30, 2019 18:17
    DAX Metamorphosis Chart The Daily DAX30 chart below may appear confusing at first, but it's worth....Is this case of a metamorphosis from one textbook formation to another? We think....Getting to the point: The formation starts with an inverse head-&....The 12,655 objective then initiates a head-&-shoulders (bearish) formation,....For the tradable implications of this formation and other trades, please tune....Does it appear too good to be true? If valid, the current formation suggests an....Would this be achieved this week once markets are dissatisfied with a mere 25-....With regards to that 12650 high reached at the start of July, we predicted it 3..

  • Intraday Market Thought: Risk Trades Escalate, Virus Cases Dip Pre Powell

    by Adam Button | Feb 11, 2020 14:38
    The drift further higher in risk trades continues as China reported fewer new....USD is off across the board (w/ the exception against JPY) after Fed Chair....More market action could ensue after Powell immerses himself in the Q&A....GBP resumes gains after UK Q4 GDP came in at 1...1% y/y vs exp 0...8% y/y...One of EURUSD Premium trades was stopped out and a new trade has been ....China reported 2,478 coronavirus cases compared to 3,062 a day earlier and that....US equities finished with a flourish on Monday with the S&P 500 up 24 points...A red flat continues to be in bonds where Treasury yields fell 3 bps to....50%....One way to square the divergence is the expectation that the Fed will stay lower....It's the same one-way bet that has kept risk trades bid for months...If the coronavirus fizzles it will be one of the great achievements in public....We're months away from the all-clear but AUD/USD presents significant value if....It probed through 0...6700 last week to financial-crisis lows but has rebounded back above...Here is what happened the last time Powell spoke 11 days ago.

  • Intraday Market Thought: Capitulation or Adjustment?

    by Ashraf Laidi | Feb 28, 2020 1:32
    Capitulation or Adjustment? Chart The first signs of capitulation showed emerged in a big way on Thursday as....4%, posting their biggest 1-day percentage drop since 2011, bringing the....The combination of Microsoft downgrades triggering corporate worries with....A new Premium video has been issued below, covering why/how our indices were....I cover my take on FX and indices and the implications for Friday's trades...Will central banks step in before the weekend? My take below...As for what's next, we could make all sorts of profound arguments about....Alternatively, we could approach the situation by asking “what would....Their job is to safeguard the financial system after all...Some would GDP growth is doing OK and & jobs are solid, while markets are....Don't forget that Fed funds futures are currently pricing three rate cuts by..

  • Intraday Market Thought: Gold 1796, Aussie's Virus Return

    by Adam Button | Jul 7, 2020 13:43
    Gold 1796, Aussie's Virus Return Chart Risk appetite finally tapers off after the Bank of Japan said it will not....Aussie is the biggest loser of the day on a combination of cautious commentary....The Premium gold long entry at 1690 reached its final target of 1790...The Premium Insights service is ready to send a 2-pronged tactical plan this....استراتيجية صفقتين مزدوجة -- فيديو المشتركين...The overarching reason for the latest round of US dollar weakness is risk....The latest jolt came from China, where the Shanghai Composite gained 13% over....Money may be returning to emerging markets more generally as sentiment....Moreover, the US could be suffering from the effects of rising virus cases....Every day where cases remain elevated in the US compared to other developed....The dollar managed to recoup some losses Monday on a jump in the ISM non-....1 from 45...4, but is now under fresh pressure...An initial retreat in oil has added to CAD's losses, which were built from....nbsp; USDCAD may eye 1...3610 on deepening risk aversion, while EURCAD could retest 1...5420...Gold  nears 1800, showing no sign of breaking below its medium term....1240s...nbsp;..

  • Intraday Market Thought: Indices & Oil Crossroads, Euro One Direction

    by Adam Button | Jul 16, 2020 17:05
    Indices & Oil Crossroads, Euro One Direction Chart Euro and sterling are neck-and-neck on the ascent after the European Central....US jobless fell to 1...3 million, a new 3-month low...nbsp; US bank earnnings were mixed, with Bank of America down afer falling....Ashraf is watching oil as it scrapes the top of the March 9th gap, a close above....50/60 would help trigger the next leg down in USD...All major US indices are down, led by NASDAQ -1...6% as Twitter slumped after the hacking of the accounts of some prominent public...Today's Premium trade released after the ECB is +20 pips in the green, but....nbsp;  ....The Bank of Canada introduced a dovish style of forward guidance on Wednesday,....CAD is now mixed today against the FX pack...The BoC delivered a mild surprise with a commiton ment to "hold the policy....quot; Macklem made it clear that wouldn't be until the output gap was....nbsp; ....It's early in the post-COVID world but don't rule out a change in the....Rate differentials are a dead trade for now with everything in developed markets....nbsp;..
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