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Results: 741 to 750 of 1,000
Results: 741 to 750 of 1,000
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Intraday Market Thought: UK CPI & Diverging TWI-Cable Rates
by Ashraf Laidi | Aug 18, 2015 11:16
Sterling hit fresh 2-month highs as UK inflation improved in July, with....1% y/y from June's 0...0%, and beating the Bank of England's 0...0%....The notable increase was in core CPI, which rose to a 5-month high of 1...2% vs expectations of 0...9% and a June reading of 0...8%....The rise in CPI had been attributed to higher clothing and footwear prices as....House prices edged up 5...7% in June from May's 5...6%....Watching Core-CPI Spread....As the spread between UK core and headline CPI bounces back to 1...1%-- nearing February's all-time high of 1...2%-- and the headline figure remains compressed, further gains in the core....GBPUSD vs TWI Divergence....The role of sterling in containing inflation remains notable...But even more important is the divergence between sterling's trade-....The divergence between the two rates was last seen in the late 1990s, coinciding....But unlike in the 1990s, when the divergence extended into Spring 2000,....Growing expectations of a Fed hike had kept GBPUSD under pressure, but rising....nbsp;....Barring UK earnings and other endogenous factors, Fed hike expectations remain....Any receding odds of a September liftoff will likely lift GBPUSD back towards....60 figure and closer to $1...65 where the main longer term 100 and 200-month moving averages lie...nbsp;..
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Intraday Market Thought: Another Way to Look at the Dollar
by Adam Button | Oct 8, 2015 23:21
The US dollar is inextricably linked to the Fed, or is it? The greenback was the....Australian home loans highlight a quiet end to Asia-Pacific week...nbsp;....Ashraf's Premium Insights service went short on a currency pair, with a 73%....The trade has been filled and is now in progress...What if the Fed isn't the major driver of the US dollar? Every report we....The narrative of September in markets was will-they-hike-or-won't-they...The thing is, it's impossible to explain market moves since August with....A better narrative is this: 1) The US economy isn't as robust as believed....It's a 2% economy not a 3% economy and recent data underscores it with....2) Emerging market growth has stumbled, especially in Latin America...3) China's slowdown is evident but not its extent as it's such an....The US dollar was already on its way to topping before the events of August/....Ashraf had mentioned it two months ago on Twitter and on this website (see....nbsp; Manufacturing and capex numbers were softening but when China revalued....That was directly competing with the softer US outlook/Fed and the push-and-....A second wave hit around quarter end on window dressing...Now the smoke is clearing on the emerging market confusion...Growth has slowed but it's not as bad as feared and China has plenty of....That leaves the theme of less-robust US growth and the safe haven flows into the....The Australian dollar is especially well-positioned to benefit...We wrote about how October is the best month seasonally for AUD and it's....Impressively, today it erased an earlier loss to close near the highs...In fact, today's Premium trade is related to a commodity currency...The focus will remain on AUD and sharpen at 0030 GMT with the release of August....The consensus is for a 4...7% m/m rise.
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Intraday Market Thought: Thoughts on a Rethink
by Adam Button | Feb 25, 2016 23:57
The price action in markets Thursday makes an interesting case for a better....CAD was the top performer on the day while the yen lagged...Japanese Jan CPI was unchnaged y/y as expected...Ashraf has just added a new trade 10 mins ago from sending this post...Detailed charts and commentary will be sent out momentarily...The S&P 500 broke and closed above a double-top at 1946 in the second day of....The long-suffering durable goods orders report easily beat expectations with a 4...9% rise compared to the 2...9% consensus...Details and revisions were also strong...It was on Jan 25 when Ashraf issued a detailed note/video titled "How....It's especially impressive that the gains came on a day when the Shanghai....4%....Earlier in the day oil prices were also lower...Understanding and confidence might be the two big changes since the start of....In January, there was so much confusion about what was happening in commodity....It led to some wholesale liquidation of risk assets...In the past two weeks, the market may have discovered a better understanding....Yes, commodity companies and resource exporting countries will struggle but....Or will it?....There is also a growing confidence that the US economy is fine and that China....That's a low bar but exceeding it is enough for a continued gains in risk....The Fed's Williams underscored that outlook Thursday, saying the US economy....Oil remains the wildcard in the equation but prices have lately proven resilient....USD/CAD is certainly signaling optimism as it broke below at double bottom at 1...36...We warm, however, that oil settlement flows tend to peak around the 25th of....Another theme we continue to track is the ability of developed market....Yesterday's Australian capex numbers were surprisingly strong and today'....Perhaps those weak currencies are doing what they're supposed to be doing....Looking ahead, Japan CPI for Jan is due at 2330 GMT...The consensus is for a flat y/y reading...The Feb Tokyo numbers are forecast to show a 0...3% contraction in..
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Intraday Market Thought: Capital Key to the Euro
by Ashraf Laidi | Jul 21, 2016 3:22
The euro was calm ahead of the ECB decision but the reaction on Thursday....GBP was the top performer on the day while the yen underperformed all....NZD took another tumble in early Thursday Pacific trade after the RBNZ....The calculator below shows NZD is the worst performing currency so far this....The ECB is running out of bonds to buy...The central bank has bought more than 900 billion euros in its various QE....7 trillion target...Those rules are referred to as the capital key and various 'sources'....Otherwise, the meeting is rumored to be focused on banking issues and a move on....The problem at the moment is that the ECB can't buy sovereign bonds with a....4%....It also must buy bonds in ratios that correspond to the size of each Eurozone....What's limiting purchases is finding enough bonds to buy, particularly....4%....There are constraints in other programs as well, such as supranational bonds and....A main restriction is the ban on buying bank debt...Loosening that may solve financial sector problems and QE restraints but it....The issue is that any solution to the shortage would create a liquidity or....The aim for Draghi will be to slowly expand the universe of buy-able bonds....It's a tricky task but it's also critical to his ability to go beyond....7 trillion in promised QE...The aim for Draghi will be a smooth delivery, rather than a combative....He may attempt to hide the changes in dull language but that's a dangerous....If he can deliver some effective changes or lay clear groundwork to make them in....Otherwise, the focus will be on his overall assessment of the economy...Watch for upbeat comments in-line with other central bank positivity as the....An interesting turn in GBP trading came Wednesday as the BOE's Forbes wrote....It helped to lift the pound and threatens to undermine the market's....Technically, USD/JPY broke above the pre-Brexit high Wednesday...The gains came after a report the Japanese government could deliver a 20T....That's about double what had been rumored and another sign Abe and Kuroda....Another central bank that's in focus is the RBNZ...Last week, they announced the special publication of an economic update...That was taken to be a sign of a downgrade in economic forecasts that....The report is due at 2100 GMT.
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Intraday Market Thought: Central Bank Jawbreaker
by Adam Button | Aug 16, 2016 0:12
We look at the market's indifference to US factory data, brewing problems in....The Australian dollar was the top performer Monday while the pound lagged...The RBNZ's Wheeler and the RBA Minutes are up next...The Dow trade was stopped out at 18,660, leaving 6 trades in progress...In economic data Monday, the Empire Fed manufacturing index fell to -4...2 compared to +2...5 expected...The miss hardly elicited a response...Manufacturing has struggled at various times since the crises but has never....Increasingly, the market is indifferent to US factory data...One set of data that's growing in important is Canadian housing...The 15% foreign buyers tax on the West coast and rumblings of similar moves....July existing home sales fell 1...3% compared to 0...9% expected...Canadian house prices were up 9...9% y/y in a poor economy and officials are increasingly concerned...Fin Min Morneau on Monday said the government is focused on minimizing....They may be able to shield the financial sector but deflating a bubble is a tall....In central banking, the trend is openness; in the sense that officials....In a letter Monday, the Fed's Williams mulled raising the Fed's....In the pre-crisis era, central banks worked by raising or lowering rates in....Markets are now demanding more creative policymaking and punishing currencies....Much of what Williams is proposing is changing the communication function...What he's underestimating is how badly central bank credibility has been....Targets, forecasts and even mandates have been missed so badly that markets....Japan is a prime example of all the issues and yesterday's dismal GDP....Looking ahead, the RBNZ's Wheeler is slated to speak at 2230 GMT...At 1:30 GMT, the latest RBA Minutes are due up...The policy outlook will likely mirror the latest statement and offer nothing..
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Premium: Vacation is out, Volatility in
by Ashraf Laidi | Sep 13, 2016 1:06Update: Sep 14, 2016 16:27 GMT....CLOSING EURGBP long at 0...8540 (instead of the stated 0...8820) from the 0...8420 entry, for 120-pip gain...Please see EURGBP section below for further detail...Update: Sep 14, 2016 8:01 GMT....Issuing a new GBPUSD short ahead of today's UK jobs and Thursday's....Update: Sep 13, 2016 3:20 GMT....Returning.. -
Intraday Market Thought: The Poloz Plan, AUD Employment & Debate
by Adam Button | Oct 19, 2016 22:34
Central bankers walk a fine line where a surprise can often stimulate an economy....Reading between the lines, the Bank of Canada seems to be setting something up....The Australian dollar was the top performer Wednesday while the pound....The Fed's Dudley and Australian employment are due next...A new Premium trade shall be issued ahead of tonight's Presidential....مخاطر الصفقات حول الوظائف الأسترالية، حوار كلنتون-ترامب و لقاء المركزي....As we expected, the BOC didn't downgrade its forecasts as much as....That sent USD/CAD a cent lower to 1...3000...The surprise came later when Poloz said they “actively discussed”....It led to a reversal in USD/CAD and eventually to a session high 1...3137 as oil climbed on another tighter inventory report...The strategy for the BOC is to hint that a hike could be on the table without....One of the lessons of the past couple years of central bank decisions is that....When central bankers clearly foreshadow a hike, the market expects it then....The result is for markets to end up unimpressed...A surprise, on the other hand, can help to trigger the animal spirits and grab....The risk is that markets are overly surprised and worry the central bank....Poloz walked that line in the past and delivered a surprise rate cut in 2015....In all likelihood, he's setting up something similar for early 2016...The BOC is clearly not in neutral mode but it judged that market pricing of....The risk is that he's shown his hand because the market has seen it before....What might make that difficult is that oil is trading at the highest since July....What could give the US dollar a tailwind is the Fed...Dudley is on the agenda at 2345 GMT and could offer hints on a December rate....However, the topic of the speech is NYC economic history so it's equally....One thing on the agenda that's sure to move markets is the Australian....The consensus is for a +15K rise but watch the full/part-time breakdown...Technically, AUD/USD broke and closed above the key 0...7700 level Wednesday...That's the highest close since April although several intraday peaks in the....7756...That's a level to watch through the data.
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Intraday Market Thought: Ashraf's London Seminar Thursday
by Ashraf Laidi | Dec 3, 2017 14:35This Thursday, Ashraf will hold a special in-house seminar in partnership....Will a Fed rate hike matter for the US Dollar, or will the ECB steal the show?....Will gold's technical stability turn to the breakout long anticipated by....Technicals of UK100, GER30 and US30 Reserve your seat.. -
Premium: USD Anti-appetite?
by Ashraf Laidi | Apr 16, 2018 12:59
Update: Apr 20, 2018 14:25 GMT....Short DAX30 for those who were stopped out at the 12640...Update: Apr 19, 2018 17:20 GMT....Long GBPUSD with 2 charts and note as signalled in this week's video...Update: Apr 16, 2018 21:30 GMT....Bolstering the Secular Trade....Shorting USDCAD as per last week's trade close.
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Intraday Market Thought: Gold Requires More Pullback
by Ashraf Laidi | Mar 1, 2019 17:54
Gold posts its biggest weekly decline since August...Bulls will tell you a pause in gold is long overdue after 4 consecutive monthly....Technical bears will tell us 1350 proved to be the end of a Cup formation, which....Fundamental bears will point to USD being the strongest of the rest, which....So what's likely to happen? With regards to US relative strength, that is....The left charts indicate that the US economic surprise index (according to....Whether this suggests that any upside in the US-Eurozone yield spread is limited,....As for gold, we have a long trade in gold for our Premium subscribers at 1280,....We'll watch 1296 as the area to defend the weekly close, a break of....Keep an eye on the returning deadline of the US debt ceiling, this month's....More importantly, we'll keep on the support levels in silver and copper as..
