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Results: 811 to 820 of 1,000
Results: 811 to 820 of 1,000
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Intraday Market Thought: Don't Count out OPEC
by Adam Button | May 15, 2017 23:54
Not all markets are equal and while it's tempting to doubt OPEC, the oil....The Canadian dollar was the top performer Monday on a rally in crude....Kuroda speaks later...A new Premium Video will be posted ahead of the Tuesday London session...Oil ministers from Saudi Arabia and Russia sent crude prices nearly $2....An extension to year end had been generally expected and there were....Along with crude rising, USD/CAD dropped to 1...3600 from 1...3675...Then disappointment set in, crude and CAD both cut the moves in half...The temptation is to now bet against OPEC...They've shown their hand so when the moves come it shouldn't be a....But we're reminded of two big previous OPEC announcements...The most-recent one was on November 30 when OPEC first announced a supply cut....By the time it was announced it had already leaked and been rumored for at....And yet when the headlines finally hit, oil jumped...The gains continued in the next two weeks as crude climbed more than 10%....It's not the first time that oil waited for the official OPEC word before....In December 2015 OPEC left quotas unchanged...It was even less of a surprise and had been wholly telegraphed...Yet crude fell a whopping 5% that day and a total of 33% by mid-January...It could be that oil hedgers wait until the official announcement before they....It could be something else, but there is enough history to show that betting on....The OPEC meeting is May 25...In the near-term, the Asia-Pacific calendar is generally light but it's....USD/JPY above 113...00 is close to the BOJ's sweet spot so he may avoid commentary on the yen.
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Intraday Market Thought: How Far Can GBP Fall?
by Adam Button | Jun 9, 2017 3:29
It will be a generation before a UK leader, perhaps any democratic leader,....Cable is down 230 pips as election results roll in and PM May's....The latest forecasts show Conservatives win by about 318 seats, which may....2 new GBP and 1 new EUR Premium trades have been issued...The previous GBPUSD long was stopped out at 1...2700, 5 pips above the session lows...Theresa May called an election because she had a small majority and was....Instead, she stumbled during a campaign that the public rightly saw as....3450 of 650 seats have been reported so far but if the trends hold and the exit....Or, will Jeremy Corbyn's rebounding Labour Party extend its advances through....Either way a hung parliament appears certain and that's challenging for....The 230 pip fall to 1...2730 so far doesn't full capture the extent of the newfound uncertainty...The EU wanted to begin Brexit negotiations next month, now we don'....And if it is a hung parliament, the negotiators could be changed by another....We continue to monitor the 1...2740-1...2760 territory as the crucial support for GBPUSD...One piece of good news for the pound is that the two-year clock that started....Or maybe, just maybe, Corbyn decides on calling another referendum and the UK....Another piece of good news is that minority governments love to spend and....So while it's not as clear and isn't likely to materialize as quickly,..
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Intraday Market Thought: BOC Flips the Switch
by Adam Button | Jun 12, 2017 23:50
A quick look at the USD/CAD chart shows how seriously the market took a hint....The loonie was the top performer while the pound lagged...Australian business confidence is due later...The Premium video below dissects the technical and fundamental forces....Any time a central banker's comment leads to a 150 pip fall in a currency it&....That's what happened after Wilkins said the BOC is rethinking whether the....She painted an upbeat picture of the economy that was already evident after....7% annualized pace in Q1 and the economy added 54...5K jobs in May...Wilkins was almost unequivocal in her praise for an economy where she said....The implied probability of a hike by year-end rose to 58% from 29% on her....That kind of swing is rare and underscores the downside for USD/CAD...In addition, note that longs in the pair a sliver away from record extremes and....Another place where central bankers have been feeling upbeat is Australia...The RBA last week brushed aside a soft Q1 and one of the reasons is upbeat....We will get the next look at 0130 GMT when NAB releases its business....The prior reading was +13.
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Intraday Market Thought: One year after Brexit Referendum
by Ashraf Laidi | Jun 23, 2017 14:09
One year after Britain voted to leave the European Union, the UK's woes....Ever since the Conservatives' disappointing election performance, we....Such severe loss of bargaining power with UK MPs and the EU is changing....Since last year's referendum, the FTSE100 is up 16% and 27% from Brexit....GDP growth plummeted to a 3-year low of 0...3% in Q1 2015 (the quarter before the referendum), rebounded to 0...7% in Q4 2016, but a renewed slowdown in Q1 2017 to 0...2 raises questions about the health of economic activity ahead...Earnings remain the worry as real wages (after inflation) turned negative to -1...2%, from 2...9% in summer 2016, suggesting UK consumer power would be the last item to....Any detailed macro-economic analysis does not warrant more attention as the....UK Bankers and most services industry will be looking (hoping) at the..
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Intraday Market Thought: Ashraf on BNN 1 yr into Brexit
by Ashraf Laidi | Jun 25, 2017 15:57
Ashraf's take on the UK economic and political evolution since the Brexit....Full interview.
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Intraday Market Thought: Ashraf's Bitcoin Idea on RV TV
by Ashraf Laidi | Aug 2, 2017 13:41
Ashraf Laidi, CEO of Intermarket Strategy, applies a technical currency....Full analysis on Real Vision TV.
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Intraday Market Thought: Euro also Wins the Small Battles
by Adam Button | Aug 8, 2017 15:02
The big battles in FX are the ones that matter--aggressive reversals and one....But the small victories are often telling too...The euro was the top performer on Monday while the New Zealand dollar lagged...Expect a more lively market on Tuesday after holidays in Canada and Australia...The same can be said about USDJPY...China's trade balance rose to $46...8 bn in July, while imports advanced 11% instead of the expected 18%....A new Premium trade was issued yesterday 3 charts, added to the 6 existing....The Monday after July non-farm payrolls is usually one of the quieter days of....USD continued its post-NFP momentum higher on a few fronts, but one....EUR/USD hit a high....3 bn of 1...1814 but couldn't regain the 61...8% retracement of the fall to 1...1735...That comes in at 1...1820 and is a level to watch in the days ahead...In any case, the way the euro was bid up without any news reflects prevalent....Cable meanwhile touched a slightly lower low and floundered along the bottom...USD/CAD also continued higher to touch above 1...27 as oil slipped...On the news front, Fed doves Kashkari and Bullard didn't offer anything....The President headed away on a 17-day holiday but any thoughts that he might....Germany's trade surplus edged up EUR 22 bn, reminding the FX world of the....The US JOLTS are also due next.
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Intraday Market Thought: Pound Soars, USD Gains Further
by Adam Button | Sep 12, 2017 21:44A surprise rise in UK inflation put a BOE hike back on the table while the US....The pound was the top performer while the yen lagged...Japanese PPI and the quarter business conditions index is due up next...Our GBPUSD Premium trade is +200 pips in the green, while the GBPJPY was stopped....A new Premium video focusing on yesterday's new trade balances time....The pound showed what a sliver of inflation can do after CPI rose 3...9% y/y compared to 3...7% expected on Tuesday...Cable climbed 120 pips and GBP/JPY rose nearly 250 pips...The rally in GBP/USD broke the August high and 1...3298 was the best in nearly a year...Wednesday's UK jobs figures could help sway Thursday's MPC voting from....The BOC showed what can happen to a currency when a central bank changes....The BoE's OIS market is now pricing a 35% chance of a November hike,....In economic news, US JOLTS job openings were at 6...17m compared to 6...00m expected in another sliver of good economic news for the United States...The main drivers of dollar strength continued to be relief about Irma and....USD/JPY is now flat on the month after a brutal start, but more broadly it's a....The dollar is struggling to hold gains against the euro and cable begins to....Looking ahead, the Asia-Pacific calendar sports a few highlights including....It's expected to rise a healthy 3...0% when it's released at 2350 GMT...In a release at the same time, the MoF's survey of large manufacturers for Q3 is....0 from -2...9. -
Intraday Market Thought: Cars the Latest Driver?
by Adam Button | Oct 4, 2017 14:22
Stepping back momentarily from central banks & macro data, could the best....All currencies are up against USD since the close of Tuesday's NY session,....GBP got a lift from better than expected services PMI, keeping alive hopes of a....We turn to the US services ISM at 15:00 and Yellen's speech at 20:15 London....nbsp; A new Premium trade has been posted and sent...US auto sales smashed expectations in September with sales at an 18...57m pace, up from 16...14m in December and beating the 17...4m estimate...Optimists will say consumers are opening their wallets, buoyed by a better jobs....Pessimists will sale say that replacements after hurricane Harvey....The Fed's bias is to see good news as real and bad news as temporary so the....Odds of a December Fed hike remain little changed at 70%....Yellen's speech today fires up an avalanche of speeches from Fed members....S&P 500 hit yet-another record high, climbing 5 points to 2534...NASDAQ is now at 4800.
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Intraday Market Thought: Sterling Stoked by Inflation Revision
by Adam Button | Oct 10, 2017 10:05
Politics vs economics...They dont always go hand in hand...A surprise correction in UK wages from UK statistics officials on Monday helped....This morning's UK data on trade (negative) and industrial production....The decision to close the Premium long in EURGBP on Friday for 100 pip gain....Now we look for a better entry...nbsp;....Cable gained a full cent after the ONS revised Q2 labour unit costs to 2...4% from 1...6% y/y...That's a big shift for the BOE and helps to underpin hopes for a Nov 2 hike...The market is pricing a 78% chance that Carney pulls the trigger then...NZD remains the worst performer of the week because of an election where the....Coalition negotiations are ongoing but the uncertainty could continue to weigh....It was an unusual day in North American markets...Canada was closed while in the US the bond and futures markets were closed but....After a hitting a record high, the S&P 500 stumbled late to finish down 5....1740...Expect a barrage of speeches from global central bankers and finance ministers....This coincides with the 10-year anniversary of the peak in gobal indices...nbsp;....CFTC Commitments of Traders....Speculative net futures trader positions as of the close on Tuesday...Net short denoted by - long by....EUR +91K vs +88K prior...GBP +20K vs +5K prior...JPY -85K vs -71K prior...CHF –3...2K vs -1...8K prior...CAD +75K vs +75K prior...AUD +72K vs 77K prior...NZD +8K vs +8K prior....Sterling traders are really licking their wounds...They finally put on a sizeable long and it blew up on political drama...Those holding CAD and AUD longs are likely beginning to feel some jitters.
