Searched for:
Results: 811 to 820 of 1,000
Results: 811 to 820 of 1,000
-
Intraday Market Thought: The Rules are Changing
by Adam Button | Jan 22, 2017 22:38
The temptation in a time of change is to hang on to the old rules and beliefs...A few days into the Trump era, it's abundantly clear that the rules of....A new GBP Premium trade has been posted and issued, involving a quadruple....There is no pivot...Trump isn't going to act differently as President than he did during the....In his first two days of office, his spokesman made the bizarre claim that....Many world leaders have tried to re-write the rulebook and some have....In some ways Trump is sure to change the conversation and he is definitely not....Aside from the obvious consequences, like volatility, we have to keep an open....The temptation is to focus only on legislation but his communication and....International markets will never sideline Trump or punish America like....America plays by a different set of rules and it's increasingly clear....Taking a closer look at markets, the pound was the top performer last week....Theresa May will meet with Trump on Friday in what will be a week dominated....Commitments of Traders....Speculative net futures trader positions as of the close on Tuesday...Net short denoted by - long by....EUR -67K vs -66K prior...JPY -78K vs -80K prior...GBP -66K vs -66K prior...CHF -14K vs -14K prior...AUD -5K vs -2K prior...CAD -5K vs -8K prior...NZD -12K vs -14K prior....The weekly moves in positioning were minimal as the market takes a cautious....Expect rising volatility to spark larger moves in the coming weeks.
-
Intraday Market Thought: Too much Complacency?
by Adam Button | Feb 27, 2017 8:18
The last-minute rally in stocks on Friday led to an 11th consecutive record....The pound is lower to start the week on talk of a fresh Scottish referendum...We look at the rising optimism on AUD and CAD in the CFTC positioning report...The chart below indicates the highest and weakest performers against the USD....Dual narratives of populist optimism and political uncertainty are sending dual....US yields are threatening to fall to the lowest since November while stocks run....The enormous last-second bid in US equities Friday put the Dow on the....Measures of stock market sentiment, volatility and insider selling are....The optimism is largely surrounding hope Trump will deliver on tax reform and....Given the global uncertainty and lack of anything concrete from the....In the UK, The Times of London reports that Theresa May is preparing Scotland....That's a cold, calculated move on independence just as the UK gets set to....The pound fell 50 pips at the open and is testing support in the 1...2400/1...2383 zone...Another vote would hang over the pound like a guillotine but in the day ahead....A thrust of selling at the London open would test some recent support levels..
-
Intraday Market Thought: Stocks on Fire, BOC Holds, Brainard Next
by Adam Button | Mar 1, 2017 22:40
A hawkish Fed and soaring stocks are destined for a showdown but it wasn'....The Bank of Canada held rates as expected in a truncated statement...The Fed's Brainard is up next...The 3rd USD pair Premium trade has been filled and in progress...The video for Premium subscribers is found below "Time to Exit?"....A March 15 Fed is priced above 80% as Trump's talk on tax cuts and....The S&P 500 rose 32 points to a record 2395...The next test is a speech from Brainard at Harvard at 2300 GMT...It was scheduled late and if she makes a hawkish comment then a March hike will....Brainard is the most dovish core Fed member and a hint from her about a hike....What the stock market and Fed may be ignoring are signs of a sluggish start....Construction spending was soft and spending was up 0...2% in the PCE report compared to +0...3% expected...The divergence between survey data and hard data remains unresolved...The US dollar was strong Wednesday but flattened late...The currency is still reluctant to chase Trump and buy into the rate....The statement held rates, remained neutral, didn't concede any good....USD/CAD rose to 1...3350 which is the highest since Jan 19...A break above the January high of 1...3388 would target last year's highs near 1...36...The Australian dollar remains locked in its recent range...Today's trading features January Aussie trade balance and building..
-
Intraday Market Thought: Ashraf on BNN about the Euro
by Ashraf Laidi | Apr 5, 2017 22:57
Discussing euro's cross currents ahead of the French elections and the....Full interview.
-
Intraday Market Thought: Ashraf on BNN about Euro & Elections
by Ashraf Laidi | May 5, 2017 14:21
My BNN interview ahead of Sunday's French Elections, the euro &....Watch.
-
Intraday Market Thought: Don't Count out OPEC
by Adam Button | May 15, 2017 23:54
Not all markets are equal and while it's tempting to doubt OPEC, the oil....The Canadian dollar was the top performer Monday on a rally in crude....Kuroda speaks later...A new Premium Video will be posted ahead of the Tuesday London session...Oil ministers from Saudi Arabia and Russia sent crude prices nearly $2....An extension to year end had been generally expected and there were....Along with crude rising, USD/CAD dropped to 1...3600 from 1...3675...Then disappointment set in, crude and CAD both cut the moves in half...The temptation is to now bet against OPEC...They've shown their hand so when the moves come it shouldn't be a....But we're reminded of two big previous OPEC announcements...The most-recent one was on November 30 when OPEC first announced a supply cut....By the time it was announced it had already leaked and been rumored for at....And yet when the headlines finally hit, oil jumped...The gains continued in the next two weeks as crude climbed more than 10%....It's not the first time that oil waited for the official OPEC word before....In December 2015 OPEC left quotas unchanged...It was even less of a surprise and had been wholly telegraphed...Yet crude fell a whopping 5% that day and a total of 33% by mid-January...It could be that oil hedgers wait until the official announcement before they....It could be something else, but there is enough history to show that betting on....The OPEC meeting is May 25...In the near-term, the Asia-Pacific calendar is generally light but it's....USD/JPY above 113...00 is close to the BOJ's sweet spot so he may avoid commentary on the yen.
-
Intraday Market Thought: How Far Can GBP Fall?
by Adam Button | Jun 9, 2017 3:29
It will be a generation before a UK leader, perhaps any democratic leader,....Cable is down 230 pips as election results roll in and PM May's....The latest forecasts show Conservatives win by about 318 seats, which may....2 new GBP and 1 new EUR Premium trades have been issued...The previous GBPUSD long was stopped out at 1...2700, 5 pips above the session lows...Theresa May called an election because she had a small majority and was....Instead, she stumbled during a campaign that the public rightly saw as....3450 of 650 seats have been reported so far but if the trends hold and the exit....Or, will Jeremy Corbyn's rebounding Labour Party extend its advances through....Either way a hung parliament appears certain and that's challenging for....The 230 pip fall to 1...2730 so far doesn't full capture the extent of the newfound uncertainty...The EU wanted to begin Brexit negotiations next month, now we don'....And if it is a hung parliament, the negotiators could be changed by another....We continue to monitor the 1...2740-1...2760 territory as the crucial support for GBPUSD...One piece of good news for the pound is that the two-year clock that started....Or maybe, just maybe, Corbyn decides on calling another referendum and the UK....Another piece of good news is that minority governments love to spend and....So while it's not as clear and isn't likely to materialize as quickly,..
-
Intraday Market Thought: BOC Flips the Switch
by Adam Button | Jun 12, 2017 23:50
A quick look at the USD/CAD chart shows how seriously the market took a hint....The loonie was the top performer while the pound lagged...Australian business confidence is due later...The Premium video below dissects the technical and fundamental forces....Any time a central banker's comment leads to a 150 pip fall in a currency it&....That's what happened after Wilkins said the BOC is rethinking whether the....She painted an upbeat picture of the economy that was already evident after....7% annualized pace in Q1 and the economy added 54...5K jobs in May...Wilkins was almost unequivocal in her praise for an economy where she said....The implied probability of a hike by year-end rose to 58% from 29% on her....That kind of swing is rare and underscores the downside for USD/CAD...In addition, note that longs in the pair a sliver away from record extremes and....Another place where central bankers have been feeling upbeat is Australia...The RBA last week brushed aside a soft Q1 and one of the reasons is upbeat....We will get the next look at 0130 GMT when NAB releases its business....The prior reading was +13.
-
Intraday Market Thought: One year after Brexit Referendum
by Ashraf Laidi | Jun 23, 2017 14:09
One year after Britain voted to leave the European Union, the UK's woes....Ever since the Conservatives' disappointing election performance, we....Such severe loss of bargaining power with UK MPs and the EU is changing....Since last year's referendum, the FTSE100 is up 16% and 27% from Brexit....GDP growth plummeted to a 3-year low of 0...3% in Q1 2015 (the quarter before the referendum), rebounded to 0...7% in Q4 2016, but a renewed slowdown in Q1 2017 to 0...2 raises questions about the health of economic activity ahead...Earnings remain the worry as real wages (after inflation) turned negative to -1...2%, from 2...9% in summer 2016, suggesting UK consumer power would be the last item to....Any detailed macro-economic analysis does not warrant more attention as the....UK Bankers and most services industry will be looking (hoping) at the..
-
Intraday Market Thought: Ashraf on BNN 1 yr into Brexit
by Ashraf Laidi | Jun 25, 2017 15:57
Ashraf's take on the UK economic and political evolution since the Brexit....Full interview.
