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  • Intraday Market Thought: Hello Trade Tensions

    by Ashraf Laidi | Jan 12, 2018 12:21
    Hello Trade Tensions Chart China dimissed the Bloomberg "Treasuries" story as "fake....But there's no smoke without fire...Full analysis.

  • Intraday Market Thought: IMF Joins the Party, BOJ Next

    by Adam Button | Jan 22, 2018 22:05
    IMF Joins the Party, BOJ Next Chart The global growth story got a big supporter Monday as the IMF upgraded its....The pound was the top performer Monday while the yen lagged...The Bank of Japan decision is next...The Premium Insights closed the EURUSD short at a 200-pip gain...4 Premium trades remain in progress...المحافظة على الارباح و الاتجاه (فيديو للمشتركين فقط)....The IMF ratcheted up its growth forecast to 3...9% from 3...7% for this year and next...It was widely anticipated but helps to underscore the upbeat theme that's....Another spot that shows the optimism is the Citi economic surprise index...Every major country and region is positive with the US and Europe well....It's increasingly clear that global markets are entering some kind of....Ashraf wrote last week about how yen-correlations have disconnected and that&....At the moment, virtually all global markets are winners but at some point....One spot bonds are unlikely to crack is Japan as the BOJ attempts to stick to....Kuroda is likely to underscore the status quo in today's policy....Recall, the  current objective is to keep the yield of the 10-year bond at....It is now near 0...1%....Watch carefully because even the slightest hint may be enough to send USD/....00 and below...There is no set time but the headlines usually cross shortly after 0230 GMT.

  • Premium: Volatility is Back

    by Ashraf Laidi | Jan 30, 2018 15:22
    Update: Jan 31, 2018 19:51 GMT....Long GBPAUD backed by charts and notes as signalled in last night's video...Update: Jan 31, 2018 1:36 GMT....Broadening USD Shorts....Long GBPUSD ahead of Carney's remarks...Chart to follow this evening.

  • Intraday Market Thought: Fed Goes ‘Further’

    by Adam Button | Jan 31, 2018 23:37
    Fed Goes ‘Further’ Chart Janet Yellen went out with a whisper in her final FOMC meeting...In January, GBP was the top performer while the US dollar lagged...Australian building approvals are up next...The Premium Video below was recorded ahead of the Fed, highlights the ....6 of the existing 8 trades are currently in profit...Janet Yellen has never craved the spotlight and she chose to make her....The statement didn't offer any strong hints about the path of rates...The main line of guidance called for “further gradual increases”....The addition of the word “further” is a bit puzzling by may have....On inflation, the Fed dropped a reference to below-target inflation in....Expectations for a hike in March were unchanged but beyond that it remains....Presumably, Yellen wanted to leave the next signal to Powell and that's....The US dollar initially strengthened after the announcement but later gave....USD/JPY rose as high as 109...45 but slipped back to 109...18...On the whole, moves in FX on the day were modest but the loonie was an....2251 before rebounding to 1...2312...One reason was a solid +0...4% rise in November GDP...That matched expectations but the climb came on strong manufacturing and that&....Another pair to watch is AUD/USD as it slipped to a six-day low...It's been on a tear for the past six weeks and it will bear worth closely....Yesterday's CPI numbers were soft and today building approvals are out...The consensus is for a 7...6% m/m drop after an 11...7% rise prior.

  • Intraday Market Thought: Can Equities do it?

    by Adam Button | Feb 12, 2018 14:41
    Can Equities do it? Chart A tentative turn to the upside late on Friday will be tested in the days ahead....Gold, silver and the Aussie are the best performers as yields push higher....Ashraf is watching 2676 on the SPX and 24706 on the Dow for today's close...Tune in for today's webinar on volatility...CFTC positioning was remarkably steady despite the turmoil...And here is a chart below that very few have mentioned...The S&P 500 gained nearly 40 points on Friday and traded 100 points off the....Ultimately, the backdrop hasn't changed and the global economy is in....That was reflected in the general indifference of the FX and bond market...Looking to the week ahead and beyond, it will be bonds that steal the spotlight...The key event is Wednesday's release of US CPI and retail sales...Despite all the turmoil, US 10-year yields finished the week at 2...85% -- the highest since the end of 2013...Aside from risk aversion, the climb took place despite tumbling commodity prices...A rise to 3% is likely and it's sure to create jitters in the junk bond....Is it a threshold for fear? Probably not but 3...5% might be a spot where negative feedback kicks in...CFTC Commitments of Traders....Speculative net futures trader positions as of the close on Tuesday...Net short denoted by - long by....EUR +141K vs +149K prior...GBP +28K vs +32K prior...JPY -113K vs -114K prior...CAD +40K vs +33K prior...CHF -20K vs -20K prior...AUD +14K vs +13K prior...NZD +3K vs +3K prior....The above numbers only reflect the close through Tuesday but underscore the lack..

  • Intraday Market Thought: My London Seminar on Feb 22

    by Ashraf Laidi | Feb 13, 2018 18:40
    My London Seminar on Feb 22 Chart Time for another seminar at GKFX's London HQs...nbsp; Delving into charts and fundamentals can give mixed signals, but....Find out my favourite trading ideas in currencies, metals, indices and ETFs...Thursday, 22nd of February at 7 pm...Book your seat now.

  • Intraday Market Thought: My Thursday Seminar in London

    by Ashraf Laidi | Feb 19, 2018 10:48
    My Thursday Seminar in London Chart Don't forget my Thursday seminar at GKFX's London HQs...nbsp; Delving into charts and fundamentals can give mixed signals, but....Find out my favourite trading ideas in currencies, metals, indices and ETFs...Thursday, 22nd of February at 7 pm...Book your seat now.

  • Intraday Market Thought: Dead-Cat Dollar

    by Adam Button | Feb 19, 2018 23:29
    Dead-Cat Dollar Chart The US dollar continued its modest rebound on Monday with China and North....The Australian dollar was the top performer early in the week while the....CFTC positioning showed an ill-timed shift towards the dollar...A new Premium trade in a major index has been issued earlier, highlighting 5....The RBA minutes are due next, followed by the ZEW survey on Tuesday morning...The UK jobs report is on Wednesday and not Tuesday as reported earlier...انتهاز الارتداد المتردد (فيديو للمشتركين)....The US dollar found some life on Friday and that continued Monday but we will....USD/JPY clawed its way up to 106...70 after falling to 105...50 at the lows on Friday...The bounce so far is well-within the standard range...One level to watch is the Sept 2017 low of 107...29 as that former support level will now act as resistance...In economic news, the Eurogroup nominated Spanish economic minister De....Spain was due for an executive position and there were few candidates to choose....His motives are sure to be questioned during his 8-year term but for now he&....Looking ahead, the RBA meeting minutes are due at 0030 GMT...Details about recent forecasts will be welcome as Lowe shifts to a more-upbeat....A bigger market mover will come at 100 GMT when the German ZEW sentiment survey....The consensus on the current situation is a dip to 94...0 from 95...2 last month...A strong reading could put the euro back on a path to a cycle high...CFTC Commitments of Traders....Speculative net futures trader positions as of the close on Tuesday...Net short denoted by - long by....EUR +128K vs +141K prior...GBP +15K vs +28K prior...JPY -115K vs -113K prior...CAD +33K vs +40K prior...CHF -20K vs -20K prior...AUD +9K vs +14K prior...NZD +2K vs +3K prior....The theme was US dollar buying in the latest changes but that turned out to be....Yen shorts continue to get beaten up, will they capitulate?..

  • Intraday Market Thought: My BNN Hit on Yields & Powell

    by Ashraf Laidi | Feb 22, 2018 16:44
    My BNN Hit on Yields & Powell Chart Explaining to BNN the importance of understanding yesterday's price....Full interview.

  • Intraday Market Thought: Gold Bulls want this from Powell

    by Ashraf Laidi | Feb 27, 2018 11:25
    Gold Bulls want this from Powell Chart Fed chair Powell's testimony to the House Financial Services Committee...begins at 10:00 Eastern (15:00 GMT/London) but the actual speech will be....Here is the (realistically) best scenario for gold from Powell...Full analysis.
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