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  • Intraday Market Thought: Dark Oil Reality Shadows Soaring NFP

    by Adam Button | Apr 3, 2020 19:45
    Dark Oil Reality Shadows Soaring NFP Chart US employment fell by 4x expectations, showing a 701K decline in March, but....A 40% intraday rally in oil following a series of Trump remarks helped the....A new Premium Insights' trade was issued for Premium subscribers after the....US Crude shot up nearly 40% above $30 from an 2-decade low after Donald Trump....Traders (and us) remain in doubt as to whether a global deal can really be done...The US President's infatuation with exaggeration and half-truth struck the....After tipping off CNBC, he tweeted that he expected Russian and Saudi Arabia to....Even with all of OPEC included, a 10-15 mbpd cut was an enormous sacrifice...Soon after Russia revealed it hadn't even spoken to Saudi Arabia...Crude fell back to $24 but rose again when the Saudis called an emergency OPEC+....Yet, the statement from Saudi Arabia hinted at the truth: The plan was to....That is a monumental task that's a longshot at best and crude fell to $23...50...Still, the market held out hope when Texas, Mexico and Alberta officials....Later, Exxon said it wasn't interested in cooperating with anyone...They've avoiding shale for years and have the balance sheet to withstand....No doubt they want to buy assets later for pennies on the dollar...Their stance makes it highly unlikely the US will cooperate...The hard reality is that it might not even matter if they do...Trafigura estimates that coronavirus has cut global oil demand by 35 million....Low estimates are at 20 mbpd...Oil is unlike other commodities because it's difficult and costly to store...Every country has some reserves but 1 million barrels are tough to store...35 million barrels per day is an impossible glut...A look back at the major inflection points in crude shows that a 1-2% over....Current oversupply is 30%....There are two solutions: Solve the virus or let the market sort it out...This rally could extend to $36-37 on further optimism or OPEC+ jawboning but....US nonfarm payrolls collapsed by 701K, the biggest 1-month drop since the....4% from 3...8%, posting the biggest monthly rise since 1975...Most crucially, the jobs figures were based on the survey week of March 12th,..

  • Intraday Market Thought: OPEC Cuts 10 Cuts Deep, Oil Unimpressed

    by Adam Button | Apr 9, 2020 23:14
    OPEC Cuts 10 Cuts Deep, Oil Unimpressed Chart A few developments have occured last night since OPEC+ pledged to cut crude....Mexico said it will not go with the cuts, before some OPEC members responded the....nbsp; The Fed added $2...3 trillion in lending programs on a day when US jobless claims rose by another 6....The dollar lagged while AUD led the way...The Premium Insights' gold long hits its final 1690 target from the long....The chart below lays out Bitcoin's performance relative to gold ahead of....The Premium Insight currently have a long on Bitcoin from 6200...The war within OPEC ended Thursday as Russia and the group all pledged to....Importantly, that cut includes the extra supply that's in the market this....The deal is just for May and June but there is a tentative plan to cut from....The moves will go some ways towards balancing the oil market but the....It peaked on the day at $28...36 on chatter about a 20 mbpd cut then fell to $23...19 to close near the lows of the day...OPEC is looking for non-members to pledge to cut another 5 mbpd and the G20....As always with the G20, commitments are soft...In any case, the market remains easily oversupplied by 20 mbpd and more-likely....There is no clearing price for crude once storage is full and there was a....They had been expected to deliver crude but were asked to wait because....Political vs Economic Supply Action....Ultimately, this looks like a great political move that will shield OPEC and....They cut by 22% and until the rest of the world does the same, oil price are....It is important at this juncture to distinguish between political and....Cutting supplies for the purpose of reaching consensus and good faith,....In the US, the huge jump in jobless claims was overshadowed by a series of....5-4% for 'main street' firms with less than 10,000 employees and $2...5B in annual revenue...The announcement gave a small lift to risk trades but was a big anchor on the....Gold rose $35 to $1684 and is now within easy striking distance of the March....It also may have carved out an inverse head-and-shoulders pattern...The EU also tentatively revealed a coronabond program...Without getting into the details, the takeaway is that government and central..

  • Intraday Market Thought: Euro & Industrials Lead Rebound

    by Adam Button | Jun 29, 2020 14:58
    Euro & Industrials Lead Rebound Chart A new record daily increase in the number of Covid19 inflections and....More about market levels below and how thet compare to Friday's levels)....The weight of growing coronavirus cases sparked risk aversion on Friday and it&....DOW30 leads with 1...4% higher vs NASDAQs -0...4%....EUR is the strongest currency of the day and GBP is the weakest...nbsp; CFTC FX positioning showed more bets on the yen (more below)....The EURGBP premium long hit its final taret of 9070 3 weeks ago, but Ashraf....nbsp;....US virus cases rose another 1...7% on Sunday, above the 1...5% average...But it's a few hotspots that are concerning the market...Florida, Texas, Arizona and California all hit records in the past week and....Formally, governors re-closed bars in Florida and Texas and cut restaurant....The mood on Friday slowly soured and that resulted in a 2...4% decline in the S&P 500 with a close below the 200-dma...Today, DAX attempts to regain its 200-DMA of 12152, DOW30 manages to protect....nbsp;....See how the levels mentioned above compare to the levels we mentioned hours....nbsp; ....In the FX market, the reaction has been uneven...Risk trades in commodity currencies are playing out more clearly but elsewhere....GBP is also suffering on the risk trade but Brexit news and a potential COVID-....Note that China was on holiday late last week but is back to start the new week...CFTC Commitments of Traders....Speculative net futures trader positions as of the close on Tuesday...Net short denoted by - long by....EUR +118K vs +117K prior...GBP -19K vs -16K prior...JPY +27K vs +22K prior...CHF +1K vs +2K prior...CAD -21K vs -25K prior...AUD -5K vs -7K prior...NZD 0K vs -2K prior...After big moves into AUD and EUR last week, the shifts were much smaller in....The lone notable shift was into JPY.

  • Premium: Has USD had Enough?

    by Admin | Jul 15, 2020 13:46
    Has USD had Enough? Chart Update: Jul 16, 2020 13:34 GMT....New trade with 3 charts & 4 notes...Managing Euro's Ascent إدارة صعود اليورو..

  • Intraday Market Thought: New Highs but Beware of these 3 Points

    by Ashraf Laidi | Aug 19, 2020 18:25
    New Highs but Beware of these 3 Points Chart Twenty minutes before the upcoming release of the July FOMC meeting, and 12....and 1 hr after Apple cap hit $2 trillion, it is worth pointing out that Apple....I started today's Premium video with these rare dynamics in Apple, followed....nbsp;....nbsp;..

  • Intraday Market Thought: Narrative Disconnect

    by Adam Button | Sep 14, 2020 16:09
    The closer you look, the more the September bout of market instability....All three major US indices tested their 55-DMA before rebounding off them today...Ashraf reminds us to give little importance to Monday-Rebounds and focus....CFTC position showed an ill-fated climbing in sterling longs just as it....A new Premium trade was posted ahead of the US cash open...Below is the year-to-date performance charts, showing silver is up a whopping....nbsp;....US stocks fell to fresh one-month lows on Friday before a late bounce but....A classic risk trades is AUD/JPY and it's roughly where it was two weeks ago and....There has been some volatility but nothing like the correction in equities...USD/MXN is another good risk barometer but the recovery in emerging market....Late last week, the pair made a major technical breakdown with the fall below....There's also the bond market where Treasury yields are only slightly below....The precious metals market also continues to consolidate in the centre....Stepping back, we see idiosyncratic declines in three main markets...1) Tech stocks and other high-flying pandemic stocks are seeing a clear....This is likely a reflection of overvaluation after a speculative mania;....2) Sterling has fallen because Brexit negotiations are breaking down...3) Oil is being hit by demand worries...This is the most concerning because it may reflect real economic weakness but....One argument is that stock markets are simply ahead of the pack and that's....The message for now is not to transpose these moves on FX trades and expect the....CFTC Commitments of Traders...Speculative net futures trader positions as of the close on Tuesday...Net short denoted by - long by....EUR +198K vs +197K prior...GBP +13K vs +6K prior...JPY +22K vs +30K prior...CHF +12K vs +12K prior...CAD -17K vs -27K prior...AUD -2K vs 0K prior...NZD +5K vs +7K prior...None of the moves in this week's report are large but climb in sterling longs..

  • Intraday Market Thought: Real Yields & Fed Take Away

    by Adam Button | Sep 29, 2020 17:25
    Real Yields & Fed Take Away Chart As money flows make up their mind during the quarter-end tango of sector and....This is pushing metals across the board, with silver and gold at the top,....nbsp; Meanwhile, oil bears and CAD bears are closely watching US crude's 100-....80s...Last week we heard from 14 different Federal Reserve speakers last week and....CFTC positioning data showed a rebound in EUR longs...nbsp; Last week's Premium long in GBPNZD hit its final target of 1...9680 for 270-pip gain...Earlier today, a new Premium trade was opened and is currently 250-pt in the....nbsp;....Last week included a non-stop parade of Fed speakers but the underlying message....There were debates about raising rates in 2023 but very little to suggest any....On more QE, a number highlighted that it would do little because yields are....Others emphasized that yield curve control would also have only marginal....Powell highlighted that they have already done almost anything they could....On business loans, he suggested there could be some flexibility to make them....It all begs the question: How much of the recent turmoil in markets is a by-....It may not be a coincidence that the dollar has been strong since the FOMC....For those watching the Fed closely, nothing they've said or done is a....Contrast that with the BOE talking negative rates and other banks finding....CFTC Commitments of Traders....Speculative net futures trader positions as of the close on Tuesday...Net short denoted by - long by....EUR +191K vs +179K prior...GBP +3 vs +2K prior...JPY +30K vs +23K prior...CHF +16K vs +12K prior...CAD -19K vs -17K prior...AUD +16K vs +16K prior...NZD +5K vs +3K prior...Euro longs backed off two weeks ago but the latest data show a rebound and it&....Aside from the euro, it was generally a 'stand pat' week, which is a....nbsp;..

  • Intraday Market Thought: Oil Shrugs Off OPEC, USD Hardens Fall

    by Adam Button | Dec 3, 2020 22:15
    Oil Shrugs Off OPEC, USD Hardens Fall Chart OPEC didn't deliver what markets were expecting on Thursday but crude....Sterling was the top performer on Brexit optimism while the US dollar lagged...Non-farm payrolls are due up next...If you are a member of our WhatsApp Broadcast Group and not received any....We await to hear from WhatsApp regarding the problem...Thursday was all about deal-making with OPEC, Brexit and US stimulus all in play...The market continues to lean towards a Brexit deal but hopes are now pinned on....US stimulus talks continue to move in a positive direction but we're not at....It was OPEC+ that made its move on Thursday and it wasn't the 3 month....Instead, OPEC opted for a plan to raise production 500k bpd each month starting....We would have expected some crude selling on that but after a small blip,....50...Brent also finished more than 1% higher...The adage that applies here is: When a market can't fall on bad news, it....Holding well-above the recent range in crude through the OPEC news is a good....OPEC still has 7...2mbpd of spare capacity so that will certainly keep oil from running higher....That was reflected in the Canadian dollar Thursday as USD/CAD fell to the....The break of 1...30 clears out a key support level and highlights the case for a further....The EUR/USD breakout resumed on Thursday as it climbed above 1...21 and it was joined by the Australian dollar in a climb above the September....7411 to the best levels since 2018...The dollar is behaving like a classic bear market, as intermittent....The trigger on Wednesday was more positive talk on US stimulus...It's tough to know if differences can be bridged but Democratic leaders....In the shorter-term though, the trade will evolve around Friday's US and....Non-farm payrolls estimates have come down and sit at 478K...Homebase hiring numbers point to the risk of a downside surprise but markets....On the flipside, a positive surprise may be welcomed, leaving a positive skew.

  • Intraday Market Thought: How we shorted Indices كيف بعنا المؤشرات

    by Ashraf Laidi | Jan 29, 2021 20:00
    How we shorted Indices كيف بعنا المؤشرات Chart Here is a recap of what and how we approached shorting the DOW, SPX and DAX....We started abour 45 mins before Wednesday's FOMC announcement....Please see the details of the last 3 days...nbsp; تفضلوا بملخص محتوى صفقاتنا لبيع مؤشر الداو و الداكس من يوم الاربعاء....من القروب العرب..

  • Intraday Market Thought: Gold's Anniversary & Flash Crash

    by Ashraf Laidi | Aug 9, 2021 14:54
    Nearly 365 days after hitting its $2075 high, gold gets a double punch by strong....Thin liquidity conditions, exaggerated by light summertime staff played a big....The fact that bond yields and USD were relatively muted, highlights the....But Friday's stellar US jobs report will likely trigger fresh selling bouts....900K NFP combined with larger than expected fall in the unemployment (from....9% to 5...4%), over 119K in upward revisions and 0...4% in average hourly earnings m/m, raise chances that Fed tapering of asset....Rather than persistent selling at the lows, gold will likely see offers....We saw such activity exactly this same time last year, days after gold hit its....The question then becomes whether we will see a break below 1600, similar to....nbsp; The answer to that question is found in the video from 14:30..
1...858687888990919293949596979899100