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Results: 911 to 920 of 1,000
Results: 911 to 920 of 1,000
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Intraday Market Thought: Central Bank Rescue?
by Adam Button | Mar 2, 2020 14:31The 1000-pt rally in Dow30 futures earlier in Asia was cut in half as....Fed Chair Powell's stmt on Friday was followed by similar remarks....CFTC positioning data showed just how vulnerable euro positioning is to an....Surprised by Goldman's Fed call below? Friday's Premium trade....A death and evident outbreak in the US pushed coronavirus onto front pages in....The west coast of the US appears to be dealing with several outbreaks but it's....Goldman Sachs now expects the Fed to cut rates by a total of 100 bps by end of....nbsp;....The dramatic measures taken by Chinese authorities appear to have some positive....The types of mass, mandatory quarantines they have put in place will be tough to....7 from 50...0...That's an all time low that's far below the financial crisis bottom and much....0 expected...The non-manufacturing survey was even worse at 29...6 compared to 51...0 expected and 54...1 previously...The question is no longer whether Q1 GDP in China will be positive or negative,....That first piece of soft economic data may be enough to give cover to central....The BOC is scheduled for Wednesday and there is chatter of a global coordinated....The market is already pricing in a March 18 Fed cut as a sure thing with a 70%....Expect some kind of relief rally on central bank expectations or moves but....The central bank toolkit is much more powerful in a financial crisis than a....CFTC Commitments of Traders....Speculative net futures trader positions as of the close on Tuesday...Net short denoted by - long by....EUR -114K vs -92K prior...GBP +30K vs +29K prior...JPY -56K vs -27K prior...CHF +1K vs +2 prior...CAD +15K vs +8K prior...AUD -44K vs -38K prior...NZD -15K vs -12K prior....The theme in markets late last week was to head to the sidelines and that is....That helps to explain the strength in the euro and yen. -
Intraday Market Thought: Dollar Yield Differential Crumbles
by Adam Button | Mar 5, 2020 22:38
Equity indices fell by more than 3%, but it was the damage to the US dollar that....The yen was the top performer while AUD and CAD narrowly underperformed USD...US non-farm payrolls is due up on Friday, but it will have little relevance as....Meanwhile, the jump in the 10-2 spread is a typical occurence of an economy....As the USD yield differential becomes fashionable, Premium members got....اليورو و الداو: الركوب او الانتظار؟ (فيديو المشتركين)....The virus reasserted itself as a dominant headwind for risk assets on....US 10-year yields fell 13 basis points to 0...92%, just shy of the weekly low...nbsp; The front end hit a new low with 2s touching 0...55% in the continued remarkable fall from 1...4% just two weeks ago...That huge drop has deeply eroded the US dollar's yield advantage even as....Given the high volatility in markets, carry trades are also more risk than....Those factors underpinned the continued rebound in EUR/USD and a fresh fall in....00...With safe-haven yield now essentially extinct, gold is shining more brightly....Last week's drop has been erased and the close on Thursday was a cycle high...There remains the risk of isolated liquidation as risk assets crumble but....Everyone is focus on the virus itself but the lasting impact is more likely to....India's central bank took over its fourth-largest private bank on Thursday....The mix of political instability, extreme population density and a....Whether it's there or somewhere else, a global pandemic is sure to topple....Looking ahead, the non-farm payrolls report along with Canadian jobs are due...All economic data does at the moment is set a baseline to measure how hard....Interestingly, BoC president Poloz hinted Thursday that they may have cut..
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Intraday Market Thought: Fed Plunges Back to Zero
by Adam Button | Mar 16, 2020 1:23
Even as the Fed plunges back to zero interest rates, stocks fall by another....This is officially not only a recession, but potentially depression...The Federal Reserve fired its policy bazooka on a Sunday night in an....The US dollar initially sank on the headlines, but the initial bounce in....The Fed cut rates to a range of 0%-0...25% in the second emergency move this month, while pledging $700B in QE...They promised to keep rates at this level until the economy has "....CFTC positioning data confirmed a huge euro-short covering rally...A new Premium trade was issued, backed by 3 charts...2 trades are currently open...In truly what was a 'kitchen sink' move, Powell ruled out negative....They also unveiled swap lines on signs of dollar-funding strain that....Other moves included opening the discount window for 90 days and cut....Separately, the RBNZ lowered rates by 75 bps to 0...25% and pledged to leave it there for at least 12 months...The bank also said QE is on the table if needed...Let's not forget that the Bank of Canada cut rates again by 50 bps on....The early returns on the central bank action weren't positive...WTI crude fell below $30 in a 5% decline and yen crosses sank, led by a 3% drop....The economic shock that's unfolding is cataclysmic...France, Spain, Austria, South Africa, Dubai are among the new countries that....We're at the point of pricing in similar actions virtually everywhere...The UK has so far resisted and the FX market is punishing the pound in part....The leverage of the economy to the service sector, tourism and banking....The next question is how long the activity halts last...We note that even with China's ultra-tight quarantines, activity is still at....The wave of unemployment claims is going to be staggering and the cost of....As for strategy, anything leveraged towards global growth remains extremely....The loonie was the second-best G10 performer last week and that's....Market participants are liquidating risk and carry trades at the moment...Retail equity holders have had no chance to hedge and will soon panic...The CFTC positioning data underscores a theme we've highlighted for the past....Once positioning is flat (and that may be now) a decline could resume, but....Above all, manage risk...CFTC Commitments of Traders....Speculative net futures trader positions as of the close on Tuesday...Net short denoted by - long by....EUR -13K vs -87K prior...GBP +26K vs +35K prior...JPY +8K vs -42K prior...CHF flat vs -3K prior...CAD -2K vs +11K prior...AUD -54K vs -52K prior...NZD -15K vs -17K..
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Intraday Market Thought: Dark Oil Reality Shadows Soaring NFP
by Adam Button | Apr 3, 2020 19:45
US employment fell by 4x expectations, showing a 701K decline in March, but....A 40% intraday rally in oil following a series of Trump remarks helped the....A new Premium Insights' trade was issued for Premium subscribers after the....US Crude shot up nearly 40% above $30 from an 2-decade low after Donald Trump....Traders (and us) remain in doubt as to whether a global deal can really be done...The US President's infatuation with exaggeration and half-truth struck the....After tipping off CNBC, he tweeted that he expected Russian and Saudi Arabia to....Even with all of OPEC included, a 10-15 mbpd cut was an enormous sacrifice...Soon after Russia revealed it hadn't even spoken to Saudi Arabia...Crude fell back to $24 but rose again when the Saudis called an emergency OPEC+....Yet, the statement from Saudi Arabia hinted at the truth: The plan was to....That is a monumental task that's a longshot at best and crude fell to $23...50...Still, the market held out hope when Texas, Mexico and Alberta officials....Later, Exxon said it wasn't interested in cooperating with anyone...They've avoiding shale for years and have the balance sheet to withstand....No doubt they want to buy assets later for pennies on the dollar...Their stance makes it highly unlikely the US will cooperate...The hard reality is that it might not even matter if they do...Trafigura estimates that coronavirus has cut global oil demand by 35 million....Low estimates are at 20 mbpd...Oil is unlike other commodities because it's difficult and costly to store...Every country has some reserves but 1 million barrels are tough to store...35 million barrels per day is an impossible glut...A look back at the major inflection points in crude shows that a 1-2% over....Current oversupply is 30%....There are two solutions: Solve the virus or let the market sort it out...This rally could extend to $36-37 on further optimism or OPEC+ jawboning but....US nonfarm payrolls collapsed by 701K, the biggest 1-month drop since the....4% from 3...8%, posting the biggest monthly rise since 1975...Most crucially, the jobs figures were based on the survey week of March 12th,..
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Intraday Market Thought: OPEC Cuts 10 Cuts Deep, Oil Unimpressed
by Adam Button | Apr 9, 2020 23:14
A few developments have occured last night since OPEC+ pledged to cut crude....Mexico said it will not go with the cuts, before some OPEC members responded the....nbsp; The Fed added $2...3 trillion in lending programs on a day when US jobless claims rose by another 6....The dollar lagged while AUD led the way...The Premium Insights' gold long hits its final 1690 target from the long....The chart below lays out Bitcoin's performance relative to gold ahead of....The Premium Insight currently have a long on Bitcoin from 6200...The war within OPEC ended Thursday as Russia and the group all pledged to....Importantly, that cut includes the extra supply that's in the market this....The deal is just for May and June but there is a tentative plan to cut from....The moves will go some ways towards balancing the oil market but the....It peaked on the day at $28...36 on chatter about a 20 mbpd cut then fell to $23...19 to close near the lows of the day...OPEC is looking for non-members to pledge to cut another 5 mbpd and the G20....As always with the G20, commitments are soft...In any case, the market remains easily oversupplied by 20 mbpd and more-likely....There is no clearing price for crude once storage is full and there was a....They had been expected to deliver crude but were asked to wait because....Political vs Economic Supply Action....Ultimately, this looks like a great political move that will shield OPEC and....They cut by 22% and until the rest of the world does the same, oil price are....It is important at this juncture to distinguish between political and....Cutting supplies for the purpose of reaching consensus and good faith,....In the US, the huge jump in jobless claims was overshadowed by a series of....5-4% for 'main street' firms with less than 10,000 employees and $2...5B in annual revenue...The announcement gave a small lift to risk trades but was a big anchor on the....Gold rose $35 to $1684 and is now within easy striking distance of the March....It also may have carved out an inverse head-and-shoulders pattern...The EU also tentatively revealed a coronabond program...Without getting into the details, the takeaway is that government and central..
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Intraday Market Thought: Euro & Industrials Lead Rebound
by Adam Button | Jun 29, 2020 14:58
A new record daily increase in the number of Covid19 inflections and....More about market levels below and how thet compare to Friday's levels)....The weight of growing coronavirus cases sparked risk aversion on Friday and it&....DOW30 leads with 1...4% higher vs NASDAQs -0...4%....EUR is the strongest currency of the day and GBP is the weakest...nbsp; CFTC FX positioning showed more bets on the yen (more below)....The EURGBP premium long hit its final taret of 9070 3 weeks ago, but Ashraf....nbsp;....US virus cases rose another 1...7% on Sunday, above the 1...5% average...But it's a few hotspots that are concerning the market...Florida, Texas, Arizona and California all hit records in the past week and....Formally, governors re-closed bars in Florida and Texas and cut restaurant....The mood on Friday slowly soured and that resulted in a 2...4% decline in the S&P 500 with a close below the 200-dma...Today, DAX attempts to regain its 200-DMA of 12152, DOW30 manages to protect....nbsp;....See how the levels mentioned above compare to the levels we mentioned hours....nbsp; ....In the FX market, the reaction has been uneven...Risk trades in commodity currencies are playing out more clearly but elsewhere....GBP is also suffering on the risk trade but Brexit news and a potential COVID-....Note that China was on holiday late last week but is back to start the new week...CFTC Commitments of Traders....Speculative net futures trader positions as of the close on Tuesday...Net short denoted by - long by....EUR +118K vs +117K prior...GBP -19K vs -16K prior...JPY +27K vs +22K prior...CHF +1K vs +2K prior...CAD -21K vs -25K prior...AUD -5K vs -7K prior...NZD 0K vs -2K prior...After big moves into AUD and EUR last week, the shifts were much smaller in....The lone notable shift was into JPY.
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Premium: Has USD had Enough?
by Admin | Jul 15, 2020 13:46
Update: Jul 16, 2020 13:34 GMT....New trade with 3 charts & 4 notes...Managing Euro's Ascent إدارة صعود اليورو..
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Intraday Market Thought: New Highs but Beware of these 3 Points
by Ashraf Laidi | Aug 19, 2020 18:25
Twenty minutes before the upcoming release of the July FOMC meeting, and 12....and 1 hr after Apple cap hit $2 trillion, it is worth pointing out that Apple....I started today's Premium video with these rare dynamics in Apple, followed....nbsp;....nbsp;..
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Intraday Market Thought: Narrative Disconnect
by Adam Button | Sep 14, 2020 16:09The closer you look, the more the September bout of market instability....All three major US indices tested their 55-DMA before rebounding off them today...Ashraf reminds us to give little importance to Monday-Rebounds and focus....CFTC position showed an ill-fated climbing in sterling longs just as it....A new Premium trade was posted ahead of the US cash open...Below is the year-to-date performance charts, showing silver is up a whopping....nbsp;....US stocks fell to fresh one-month lows on Friday before a late bounce but....A classic risk trades is AUD/JPY and it's roughly where it was two weeks ago and....There has been some volatility but nothing like the correction in equities...USD/MXN is another good risk barometer but the recovery in emerging market....Late last week, the pair made a major technical breakdown with the fall below....There's also the bond market where Treasury yields are only slightly below....The precious metals market also continues to consolidate in the centre....Stepping back, we see idiosyncratic declines in three main markets...1) Tech stocks and other high-flying pandemic stocks are seeing a clear....This is likely a reflection of overvaluation after a speculative mania;....2) Sterling has fallen because Brexit negotiations are breaking down...3) Oil is being hit by demand worries...This is the most concerning because it may reflect real economic weakness but....One argument is that stock markets are simply ahead of the pack and that's....The message for now is not to transpose these moves on FX trades and expect the....CFTC Commitments of Traders...Speculative net futures trader positions as of the close on Tuesday...Net short denoted by - long by....EUR +198K vs +197K prior...GBP +13K vs +6K prior...JPY +22K vs +30K prior...CHF +12K vs +12K prior...CAD -17K vs -27K prior...AUD -2K vs 0K prior...NZD +5K vs +7K prior...None of the moves in this week's report are large but climb in sterling longs.. -
Intraday Market Thought: Real Yields & Fed Take Away
by Adam Button | Sep 29, 2020 17:25
As money flows make up their mind during the quarter-end tango of sector and....This is pushing metals across the board, with silver and gold at the top,....nbsp; Meanwhile, oil bears and CAD bears are closely watching US crude's 100-....80s...Last week we heard from 14 different Federal Reserve speakers last week and....CFTC positioning data showed a rebound in EUR longs...nbsp; Last week's Premium long in GBPNZD hit its final target of 1...9680 for 270-pip gain...Earlier today, a new Premium trade was opened and is currently 250-pt in the....nbsp;....Last week included a non-stop parade of Fed speakers but the underlying message....There were debates about raising rates in 2023 but very little to suggest any....On more QE, a number highlighted that it would do little because yields are....Others emphasized that yield curve control would also have only marginal....Powell highlighted that they have already done almost anything they could....On business loans, he suggested there could be some flexibility to make them....It all begs the question: How much of the recent turmoil in markets is a by-....It may not be a coincidence that the dollar has been strong since the FOMC....For those watching the Fed closely, nothing they've said or done is a....Contrast that with the BOE talking negative rates and other banks finding....CFTC Commitments of Traders....Speculative net futures trader positions as of the close on Tuesday...Net short denoted by - long by....EUR +191K vs +179K prior...GBP +3 vs +2K prior...JPY +30K vs +23K prior...CHF +16K vs +12K prior...CAD -19K vs -17K prior...AUD +16K vs +16K prior...NZD +5K vs +3K prior...Euro longs backed off two weeks ago but the latest data show a rebound and it&....Aside from the euro, it was generally a 'stand pat' week, which is a....nbsp;..
