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Intraday Market Thought: Yellen Dovish, Cold Feet Coming

by Adam Button | Jun 22, 2016 0:37
Janet Yellen maintained an uncertain tone in her Congressional testimony....The New Zealand dollar was the top performer while the yen lagged...We also look at the shape of GBP in the final countdown to the Brexit vote...As per this week's Premium video, 1 set of trades will be issued ahead of....We learned a few things from Yellen's Humphrey Hawkins testimony Tuesday...The overall tone was dovish but the shift compared to the FOMC press....The market continues to price in a 10% chance of a July hike and 30% in....Even if we assume the 'remain' side wins the Brexit vote, those numbers....Yellen was extremely cautious and repeatedly emphasized the uncertainty....Even a series of strong economic numbers through July won't be enough to....After listening to Yellen, it's clear that the case for a rate hike....Jobs, business investment, inflation and growth have all disappointed but the....Even if that continues, the Fed will need more evidence from those other....If the consumer begins to falter, the market will begin to ask if the next....Of course, the entire financial world could be turned on its head in Thursday&....ORB is out with its final poll and predicts Remain will win 54-46%....That's in line with what markets and betting sites have been flashing this....However, there seems to be a small shift back to leave unfolding...Boris Johnson had a strong performance in the final debate and flash polls....In the past three trading days the market has piled into the remain camp....ORB, for instance, is assuming that 3 of every 4 undecided voters will opt for....We agree but the risks of being wrong are now massive compared with the....Given that imbalance, the cable risks are to the downside but, like we said in....The Asia-Pacific calendar is light except for Australian skilled vacancies..
Intraday Market Thought: The Trembling and the Trend

by Adam Button | Jul 7, 2016 0:01
What's changed? That's the question traders are asking themselves....That's left some markets trending and others bouncing around; we celebrate....One Premium trade is +300 pips and another in +210 pips in the green, both....There are 7 trades currently in progress...فيديو هذا الأسبوع - عادة مفتوح للمشتركين - مفتوح للجمهور فقط لهذا الأسبوع...عيد مبارك...3 more UK property funds suspend trading....Three more UK property funds froze withdrawals by investors, namely,....On Wednesday the Australian dollar was the top performer despite a slump in....The pound lagged again but stabilized and climbed higher after a sharp selloff....The main theme in US trading was a turnaround in stocks, oil, and most US....What's increasingly clear is that the market is struggling to identify a....The strongest signal is in the pound, inarguably...It tumbled on the vote and has continued to slide because the UK-centric risks...The other somewhat-definitive signal is in bonds as global yields press to ever-....Elsewhere, the picture is muddied...Commodity currencies were damaged by the fresh global risks from Brexit but have....Stock markets are struggling with the same debate...The bias in yen crosses has been lower but the BOJ is always in the back of the....The last round of BOJ easing failed to boost yen crosses but they've proven....So where does that leave us? The sentiment swings in outside of bonds and....Fundamental newsflow is largely noise as the market struggles with the bigger....Ultimately, new themes and trends will develop but in the meantime uncertainty....In the short term, the Asia-Pacific calendar is light but we will tune into..
Intraday Market Thought: The Land of the Rising USD/JPY

by Adam Button | Jul 13, 2016 0:39
Indications from Japan and the huge moves in yen crosses suggest the....The pound was the top performer on Tuesday while the yen lagged as big FX....A speech from the RBNZ's McDermott is due later...GBPJPY and AUDPJPY trades were both stopped out...A new Premium video will be posted and sent at the start of the Wednesday....nbsp; The link to the latest video is now ready...Please see below...The two day rally in GBP/JPY was the largest since 2014...The pound is taking advantage of the improved stability as Theresa May takes....Abe has been the strongest Japanese PM in a generation and he's done it....In Kuroda he's found a central banker who is equally undaunted by the....Japanese government debt has been de facto monetized already and they're....With the Abe strengthening his mandate in upper house elections, the murmurs....Sankei reports that officials around Abe are considering 'helicopter money&....The mechanics would include a BOJ pledge to hold its inventory of JGB's semi-....It would be combined with fresh government debt issuance and spending...There have long been rumours of another fiscal/monetary dual effort to shock the....What better time than now?....The risk is that the market flouts scoffs at the actions once again but....The economic calendar is light in Asia-Pacific trading so we will watch for....Such a massive policy move – especially if it's combined with....Expectations are certainly rising...The main event to watch on the economic calendar in Asia-Pacific trading is a....His colleague Grant Spencer hurt easing expectations by warning about the....In comments at 0030 GMT, McDermott may try to keep the options open...The Fed's Mester also speaks at 0230 GMT but her likely-hawkish comments..
Intraday Market Thought: Brainard Dressed for the Season

by Adam Button | Sep 13, 2016 0:23
39;Tis the season of high volatility and today's speech from Fed Gov....The core of Fed doves stuck back against the idea of a September hike with an....The dollar slipped as the rate rise odds fell...Chinese data is due up next...Some clients to Ashraf's Premium Insights have queried why Ashraf takes....Today's 239-pt rebound in the Dow is one explanation as why the short entry....Brainard left no doubt about where she stands after her speech...She laid out a one-sided case for leaving rates unchanged and waiting....The comments carried extra weight because the speech was announced last-....The dollar dropped a half-cent across the board initially...On some fronts the losses were recovered but commodity currencies and cable....The stock market applauded another commitment to cheap money and the S&....5%....The implied probability of a Fed hike in September fell to 22% from 26%....The only piece of major economic data left before the FOMC is retail sales on....Our focus is now on December and whether or not they will hike then...But that will have more to do with economic data then communication on Sept....Looking ahead, the focus on the Fed has been justified in the past week but....The BOE is Thursday and the BOJ next Wednesday before the Fed...China has fallen to the back pages of the business section but it's always....We will be eyeing Beijing in the hours ahead with the release of August....The consensus is for a 6...2% y/y rise, which is a slight improvement on the 6...0% y/y pace in July...At the same time, the August retail sales report is forecast to show a 10...2% y/y rise.
Intraday Market Thought: Dollar Breaking Out?

by Adam Button | Oct 6, 2016 23:55
The USD dollar march continued on Thursday as it broke critical levels as....USD was the top performer while the pound sterling lagged yet again...Japanese labor cash earnings are due up later...Has it really broken? Or is this Dec 2015, Jan 2016 or Jul 2016? A....The good news kept coming for the US dollar on Thursday as initial jobless....The four-week moving average is now at the lowest since 1973 in what will look....The buck climbed on all fronts with USD/JPY breaking above the 100-day moving....16 at the high...It was the eighth day of gains for the pair...Similarly, cable continues to get beat up as it extended the break below the....2601...The big figure is holding the line so far but it's basically unchartered....Technically, the US dollar is making some serious strides...It took out the 200-day moving average against the Swiss franc and Canadian....The New Zealand dollar also fell below the 100-dma...Gold fell below the 200-dma and is battling support in the 1250 zone which....2% retracement of the rally since December...What's keeping the dollar bid? One is a growing sense that no matter who....The data is also solid and Friday's non-farm payrolls report may raise the....Finally, the euro slid after the ECB's Constancio categorically denied this....The euro fell a half and is now near the Sept lows...Watch for comments from Draghi on the weekend...On the upcoming calendar are releases from Australia and Japan...Up first at 2230 GMT, it's the Australian AiG performance of....The prior reading was 46...6...It's unlikely to be a market mover but we keep a close eye on the sensitive....At 0000 GMT, the focus shifts to Japan and the August labor cash earnings....The consensus is for a +0...4% y/y rise following the +1...4% y/y climb in July...The drop in the pace is another sign of the seemingly impossible challenges....Looking to next week, note that China returns after Golden Week celebrations...Perhaps that will spark a bid in gold as it flirts with key support near $1250.
Intraday Market Thought: 4 Spots to Watch in China-US Relationship

by Adam Button | Nov 21, 2016 0:39
We look at the different ways China and the United States are poised to drift....CAD was the best performer last week while AUD lagged...CFTC data showed traders squaring up and cutting exposure...A new GBP Premium trade was issued on Friday, which will be discussed in....The relationship between two largest and most-power economies may define Trump&....Here are the potential fault lines...1) Free Trade....The APEC summit in Peru wrapped up on Sunday and China is clearly pursuing....At the moment, it's clear that the US won't sign the TPP but what could....This could be the strongest indication he isn't truly setting out to....2) Economic Allies....Asian power appears to be gearing up for a future where the US pulls away from....Abe and Xi met on Sunday and Japan's leader said he wanted comprehensively....China may also build closer ties with Russia, Middle Eastern countries and....3) Currencies....Trump probably won't name China as a currency manipulator but record lows in....4) Bonds....China is the second-largest holder of Treasuries after Japan but at the moment....Perhaps it's one of the Asian powers? We won't find out for months but....Commitments of Traders....Speculative net futures trader positions as of the close on Tuesday...Net short denoted by - long by....EUR -119K vs -129K prior...JPY +21K vs +32K prior...GBP -80K vs -90K prior...CHF -22K vs -23K prior...AUD +42K vs +41K prior...CAD -18K vs -21K prior...NZD +2K vs +2K prior....The euro shorts have been paid off since the US election and they've used....Overall, the theme was to pare back exposure but not in a big way...We're a bit surprised that yen longs have pared even with bond yields moving....That's a correlation that can't last.
Intraday Market Thought: The Five Great Debates

by Adam Button | May 31, 2017 23:48
No single theme is dominating markets right now so today we take a look at....In May, the New Zealand dollar was the top performer while AUD lagged in a....2 new Premium trades have been added; 1 in FX and 1 in a major European index...الإسترليني و رقصة استطلاعات الرأي (للمشتركين فقط)....The UK election debate scheduled for today is a dud...While the polls continue to drive GBP, we look at five bigger debates elsewhere...1) The Fed debate....The market is juggling with three options: Here they are with the....It would take a string of weak data between then and now; A hike with....Fed officials have begun to worry about the data; A hike with a dovish bias (55%....The market is shifting towards this option and that's what is weighing....It would be signaled by something in the statement indicating that the Fed will....2) The great inflation debate....This feeds into the first theme...Eurozone inflation at 1...4% y/y compared to 1...5% on Wednesday missed expectations...Central banks are divided on whether slightly better growth and a tighter....The latest buzz phrase in economics circles is 'global overcapacity'....The Fed is holding on tight to models that show a tight domestic economy will....3) The China mystery....Yesterday's PMIs were both slightly stronger than expected but the opacity....The latest move is rapid yuan strengthening...Skeptics say it's a government-orchestrated squeeze on shorts designed....We're watching closely...4) The ECB shift debate....A leak on Tuesday indicated the ECB could move to a neutral stance and take....That was followed by today's disappointing eurozone data slate...In the bigger picture, the suspicions is that Draghi wants to setup a September....5) Oil's toils....More Libyan production sent oil sharply lower Wednesday but it bounced on....Every oil authority talks about a great inventory balancing that's coming....Russia's deputy finance minister might have tipped his hand Wednesday,....We're left with the question: Who or what could boost crude right now?..
Article: Leaving Long Island

by Ashraf Laidi | Mar 18, 2016 19:48
What do the US dollar rally and a Donald Trump rally have in common? Scroll down....This week's Fed decision to tone down its FedFunds projections closer to....The US central bank finally realizes it is unable to isolate itself in an island....The Fed is set to leave that Island...One of the loudest messages (and reminders) from the currency markets is....It does not matter that the ECB main interest rate (refinancing rate) is at....50%....What matters instead is that negative deposit rates at the ECB are less likely....What also matters is that US interest rates/yields face greater downside....Inflation is the other detail...The Fed has demonstrated its willingness to await further evidence of....The ECB will not be in a rush to raise rates once CPI gets back above 0% from....2%, but trades will quickly push the euro back up as was the case last spring....3% from -0...6% in a matter of 4 months...nbsp;....I could also mention the current account surpluses in the Eurozone and Japan at....3% of GDP respectively compared to -2...7% of GDP for the US, which help explain risk aversion flows in the euro and the....But no need for that at this time...As it stands, FX markets are currently experiencing the Fed's long-awaited....Whether this lasts for 3 weeks or 3 months remains to be seen...When I said back in August that the peak in the US dollar had already occurred,....I was obviously referring to the 6-currency index, traded at the....6%) and the yen (13...6%....Those who disagreed with me protested that the 6-currency basket is an....The importance of of the ICE's USDX is underscored by its viavility as a....Indeed, EURUSD bottomed in March 2015 (the start of ECB's QE) and USDJPY....Those who prefer the Fed's trade-weighted index (measured against the....Economists and USD-bulls in need of a confirmation bias will most commonly use....nbsp;But if you trade FX with a focus on EUR and JPY, then USDX cannot be....The chart below highlights the outperformance of the Fed's TWI....The rise in the Fed's USD TWI / USDX ratio reflects the outperformance of....As long as the latter is unable to extend a meaningful recovery over EUR....Both of the USD rally and Donald Trump rally get overcrowded too quickly...Trouble occurs when that happens.
Premium: GBP trades ahead of Referendum Thursday

by Ashraf Laidi | Sep 16, 2014 19:54
Update: Sep 18, 2014 18:43 GMT....Considering that our existing GBPCAD Premium shorts are under pressure due to....NZDUSD, USDCHF and NZDCAD have all hit their final targets...Full trades & trades...We return to shorting GBPCAD ahead of Wednesday's triple releases and....2 trades and charts are issued...We also remind of tonight's upcoming polls on the referendum, starting with....Latest trades & charts..
Intraday Market Thought: Dax Overtakes Euro on Greece Optimism

by Ashraf Laidi | Jun 23, 2015 16:00
The euro-Dax-bunds relationship continues in full swing, led by a....The euro's initial rally to $1...1410 following yesterday's comments from EU's Juncker that Athens'....nbsp; Bourses continued to rally but the euro ignored strong June flash Eurozone....i) Further diminishing of Greece Risk supports European stocks and returns....ii) Continued ECB purchases of Eurozone bonds keep euro under pressure to the....10-year bund yields are modestly lower, but this is unlikely to last if Eurozone....Yet, the more pressing relation remains between stocks and the euro...As the DAX-30 and Eurostoxx break out of their April trendline resistance,....One exception to this assessment would be renewed gains in bund yields relative..