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Hot-Chart: Fed will Cut "Transitory" in September

by Ashraf Laidi | Aug 14, 2015 15:44
A Russian saying goes “nothing is more permanent than temporary”....At the Federal Reserve, “transitory” may mean “....Oil has dropped by 57% since over the last 12 months but the +200 PhDs at the....At the June FOMC, the Fed made some progress and finally dropped its phrase....nbsp;....We long asserted that it will be impossible for the Fed to raise rates....00—even if the next non-farm payrolls come in between 200K and 300K...The October-March decline has already triggered a chain reaction of broadening....nbsp; And barely when oil began its spring time recovery, the declines....Yesterday's release of US July import prices contracted (not slowed) by....9% m/m and 10...4% y/y, the biggest fall since 2009...nbsp; We expect oil to inevitably fall below $40, which would be a 60% decline....Market-based vs survey-based inflation....Next week's CPI release will be in focus...But the 5-year forward break-even inflation reference (5-year treasury....0% from last week's 2...4%....More importantly for the Fed, will be the crucial core PCE price index, due....3%y/y, below the Fed's 2...0% target...Jackson Hole will be about inflation....Holding oil and the US dollar constant (if we can realistically do that), the....But bringing back reality into the situation, including a disinflationary....nbsp;..
Intraday Market Thought: What’s the Worry?

by Adam Button | Jan 7, 2016 0:12
We look at the myriad of reasons that sentiment has deteriorated and whether....Oil fell 6% on Wednesday and commodity currencies were beaten up again while....Australian building approvals are due later...There are currently six Premium trades in progress, three in profit and three....The magnitude of negativity caught virtually everyone off guard to begin....China....The most-widely cited problem is China and the worries kicked off with a 6...8% opening day decline in the Shanghai Composite...Officials have spent the past three days shoring up markets with various....Concerns about yuan weakness are prevalent but it's not a shock to....China scares come and go...The past two episodes have shown that the rest of global markets are....That's a scary thought for the future because big swings in Chinese....In the near-term, there is no reason for sustained risk aversion...The PBOC and government both have plenty of firepower to shore up the economy....Broader emerging markets....This is a genuine worry...The World Bank released its semi-annual report Wednesday and downgraded global....None of that is a big surprise but what caught our attention was a forecast for....5% contraction in Brazil...Other commodity-producing emerging markets are taking heavy hits as well....The Fed....The FOMC minutes were a tad on the dovish side Wednesday but they're....In the past two weeks several influential Fed members have been....The market has been largely humoring the Fed's tough talk and doesn't....The market could probably swallow 2-3 hikes but any more would show the Fed is....Geopolitics....Tension in the Middle East and exaggerated military claims from North....Perhaps the headlines have added to the sour mood but until the bullets start....Overall....We're through three days of trading in 2016...Nothing in the global outlook has materially changed...It's the time of year when flows dominate...Like everyone, we've been surprised by the magnitude of worries and we will....The jury should stay out at least until the second week of the year...In the short-term, the focus is on the Australian dollar, which is down 4...4% against the yen already...The main releases are at 0030 GMT with Australian trade balance and building....It's tough to envision either number being strong/weak enough to overcome..
Intraday Market Thought: Refocusing on the Data

by Adam Button | Feb 16, 2016 21:53
Markets go through periods of confusion and comfort but ultimately, the data is....The yen was the top performer and the New Zealand dollar lagged after a soft....Japanese machine tool orders and a speech from the Fed's Rosengren are....nbsp; A new Video Analysis on existing and possible trades has been posted here...nbsp;....فيديو جديد: فيديو جديد: التركيز على العملات و التوازن بين الدولار و اليورو....Central banks be hard pressed to stimulate economies in the foreseeable....Comments – including Wednesday's FOMC Minutes – will continue to....Economic data won't...The market doesn't yet have a strong sense of how growth in developed....The current conditions of the German ZEW sentiment survey fell to 52...3 from 59...7 as the entire survey deteriorated...It's not a big surprise given the declines in equity markets but if there....In the UK, it's abundantly clear that Carney misread the inflation....The CPI fell 0...8% m/m and core inflation rose just 1...2% y/y compared to 1...3% expected...How much Brexit questions are weighing are a matter of opinion but ultimately....In the United States, the strong dollar continues to sap manufacturing with the....6 compared to -10...5 expected...The Bank of Canada believes it will be on the other side of the equation and....2% on the heels of a strong export report...The worrisome detail was that new orders were down 2...1% so the optimism might be misplaced, especially after seeing the plunge in....Japan is desperate to bet on a weak yen as a panacea with middling results...The latest data will come in the form of the January final machine tool orders....2% so the bar is very low...The Fed remains optimistic and will be the focus of the day ahead with the....Beforehand, the Fed's Rosengren will deliver a speech at 0000 GMT...Earlier, the Fed's Harker said a stabilization in the dollar was a key....Kashkari said he still expects gradual hikes but financial market developments..
Intraday Market Thought: The Best of a Bad Bunch

by Adam Button | Mar 29, 2016 23:38
No one wants a strong currency...The dollar bulls tried to bid up the currency ahead of Yellen but she....nbsp; We break down the efforts central bankers and market forces are taking to....Japanese industrial production is due later...Ashraf's Premium Insights issued a long in EURUSD 1 hour before the Yellen....Various technical and fundamental reasons were cited but Ashraf kept it....In the lead-up to Yellen's speech on Tuesday the main line of thinking was....We warned yesterday that was unlikely and that's what happened...She said caution on raising rates was 'especially warranted', was....The US dollar slumped in response...The immediate move was 40-70 pips across the board and that extended to upwards....We anticipated and understand the reasons for selling USD today but the....USD/JPY slid back below 113...00 but the Japanese government is desperate to keep it above 111...00...It's the same story in Europe where the ECB is pushing rates ever lower...Spanish 5-year yields hit a record low of 0...375% on Tuesday...Sterling is at the mercy of Brexit talk as polls show a close contest or the....The New Zealand dollar was up 2% on the day as it benefitted from a technical....It was lifted further early in Wed trade by a 10...8% m/m jump in building permits...That runs in contrast to the RBNZ, which delivered a surprise rate cut this....The RBA's Stevens is so fond of jawboning he had is wrist slapped by the....On a growth and investment perspective, perhaps AUD and NZD remain best but the....That leaves CAD, which has had a great month, but do you really want to bet on..
Intraday Market Thought: Dollar Stumbles Despite Dudley’s Help

by Adam Button | May 20, 2016 0:27
Hawkish hints from the Fed's Dudley failed to boost the US dollar Thursday....The yen was the top performer on the day while the Canadian dollar lagged...The Asia-Pacific schedule is light but the G7 finance minister meetings are....USDCAD was stopped out, while one CAD trade remains open ahead of Friday's....nbsp;....Dudley is generally a more-dovish FOMC member but he endorsed market pricing of....He said a hike will depend on data and emphasized that growth will need to pick....That should have given another lift to the US dollar but it didn't...Instead the dollar gave back about 50 pips of gains across the board as the....Economic data was a small factor as the Philly Fed business outlook, Chicago Fed....The Fed's Fischer also spoke but avoided monetary policy while Lacker was....Still, that lack of dollar momentum into the end of the day was a disappointment...After the FOMC Minutes, dollar bulls had a strong reason to buy and Dudley....Breakouts in EUR/USD, USD/JPY, USD/CAD and AUD/USD looked to be under way...But instead of picking up momentum on the breaks, the dollar stumbled and....For now, it's only a minor setback for the US dollar but it's a concern....For the G7, note that this weekend is for central bankers and finance....Media reports say Japan and Canada are pushing their counterparts for more..
Intraday Market Thought: Yellen Dovish, Cold Feet Coming

by Adam Button | Jun 22, 2016 0:37
Janet Yellen maintained an uncertain tone in her Congressional testimony....The New Zealand dollar was the top performer while the yen lagged...We also look at the shape of GBP in the final countdown to the Brexit vote...As per this week's Premium video, 1 set of trades will be issued ahead of....We learned a few things from Yellen's Humphrey Hawkins testimony Tuesday...The overall tone was dovish but the shift compared to the FOMC press....The market continues to price in a 10% chance of a July hike and 30% in....Even if we assume the 'remain' side wins the Brexit vote, those numbers....Yellen was extremely cautious and repeatedly emphasized the uncertainty....Even a series of strong economic numbers through July won't be enough to....After listening to Yellen, it's clear that the case for a rate hike....Jobs, business investment, inflation and growth have all disappointed but the....Even if that continues, the Fed will need more evidence from those other....If the consumer begins to falter, the market will begin to ask if the next....Of course, the entire financial world could be turned on its head in Thursday&....ORB is out with its final poll and predicts Remain will win 54-46%....That's in line with what markets and betting sites have been flashing this....However, there seems to be a small shift back to leave unfolding...Boris Johnson had a strong performance in the final debate and flash polls....In the past three trading days the market has piled into the remain camp....ORB, for instance, is assuming that 3 of every 4 undecided voters will opt for....We agree but the risks of being wrong are now massive compared with the....Given that imbalance, the cable risks are to the downside but, like we said in....The Asia-Pacific calendar is light except for Australian skilled vacancies..
Intraday Market Thought: The Trembling and the Trend

by Adam Button | Jul 7, 2016 0:01
What's changed? That's the question traders are asking themselves....That's left some markets trending and others bouncing around; we celebrate....One Premium trade is +300 pips and another in +210 pips in the green, both....There are 7 trades currently in progress...فيديو هذا الأسبوع - عادة مفتوح للمشتركين - مفتوح للجمهور فقط لهذا الأسبوع...عيد مبارك...3 more UK property funds suspend trading....Three more UK property funds froze withdrawals by investors, namely,....On Wednesday the Australian dollar was the top performer despite a slump in....The pound lagged again but stabilized and climbed higher after a sharp selloff....The main theme in US trading was a turnaround in stocks, oil, and most US....What's increasingly clear is that the market is struggling to identify a....The strongest signal is in the pound, inarguably...It tumbled on the vote and has continued to slide because the UK-centric risks...The other somewhat-definitive signal is in bonds as global yields press to ever-....Elsewhere, the picture is muddied...Commodity currencies were damaged by the fresh global risks from Brexit but have....Stock markets are struggling with the same debate...The bias in yen crosses has been lower but the BOJ is always in the back of the....The last round of BOJ easing failed to boost yen crosses but they've proven....So where does that leave us? The sentiment swings in outside of bonds and....Fundamental newsflow is largely noise as the market struggles with the bigger....Ultimately, new themes and trends will develop but in the meantime uncertainty....In the short term, the Asia-Pacific calendar is light but we will tune into..
Intraday Market Thought: The Land of the Rising USD/JPY

by Adam Button | Jul 13, 2016 0:39
Indications from Japan and the huge moves in yen crosses suggest the....The pound was the top performer on Tuesday while the yen lagged as big FX....A speech from the RBNZ's McDermott is due later...GBPJPY and AUDPJPY trades were both stopped out...A new Premium video will be posted and sent at the start of the Wednesday....nbsp; The link to the latest video is now ready...Please see below...The two day rally in GBP/JPY was the largest since 2014...The pound is taking advantage of the improved stability as Theresa May takes....Abe has been the strongest Japanese PM in a generation and he's done it....In Kuroda he's found a central banker who is equally undaunted by the....Japanese government debt has been de facto monetized already and they're....With the Abe strengthening his mandate in upper house elections, the murmurs....Sankei reports that officials around Abe are considering 'helicopter money&....The mechanics would include a BOJ pledge to hold its inventory of JGB's semi-....It would be combined with fresh government debt issuance and spending...There have long been rumours of another fiscal/monetary dual effort to shock the....What better time than now?....The risk is that the market flouts scoffs at the actions once again but....The economic calendar is light in Asia-Pacific trading so we will watch for....Such a massive policy move – especially if it's combined with....Expectations are certainly rising...The main event to watch on the economic calendar in Asia-Pacific trading is a....His colleague Grant Spencer hurt easing expectations by warning about the....In comments at 0030 GMT, McDermott may try to keep the options open...The Fed's Mester also speaks at 0230 GMT but her likely-hawkish comments..
Intraday Market Thought: Brainard Dressed for the Season

by Adam Button | Sep 13, 2016 0:23
39;Tis the season of high volatility and today's speech from Fed Gov....The core of Fed doves stuck back against the idea of a September hike with an....The dollar slipped as the rate rise odds fell...Chinese data is due up next...Some clients to Ashraf's Premium Insights have queried why Ashraf takes....Today's 239-pt rebound in the Dow is one explanation as why the short entry....Brainard left no doubt about where she stands after her speech...She laid out a one-sided case for leaving rates unchanged and waiting....The comments carried extra weight because the speech was announced last-....The dollar dropped a half-cent across the board initially...On some fronts the losses were recovered but commodity currencies and cable....The stock market applauded another commitment to cheap money and the S&....5%....The implied probability of a Fed hike in September fell to 22% from 26%....The only piece of major economic data left before the FOMC is retail sales on....Our focus is now on December and whether or not they will hike then...But that will have more to do with economic data then communication on Sept....Looking ahead, the focus on the Fed has been justified in the past week but....The BOE is Thursday and the BOJ next Wednesday before the Fed...China has fallen to the back pages of the business section but it's always....We will be eyeing Beijing in the hours ahead with the release of August....The consensus is for a 6...2% y/y rise, which is a slight improvement on the 6...0% y/y pace in July...At the same time, the August retail sales report is forecast to show a 10...2% y/y rise.
Intraday Market Thought: Dollar Breaking Out?

by Adam Button | Oct 6, 2016 23:55
The USD dollar march continued on Thursday as it broke critical levels as....USD was the top performer while the pound sterling lagged yet again...Japanese labor cash earnings are due up later...Has it really broken? Or is this Dec 2015, Jan 2016 or Jul 2016? A....The good news kept coming for the US dollar on Thursday as initial jobless....The four-week moving average is now at the lowest since 1973 in what will look....The buck climbed on all fronts with USD/JPY breaking above the 100-day moving....16 at the high...It was the eighth day of gains for the pair...Similarly, cable continues to get beat up as it extended the break below the....2601...The big figure is holding the line so far but it's basically unchartered....Technically, the US dollar is making some serious strides...It took out the 200-day moving average against the Swiss franc and Canadian....The New Zealand dollar also fell below the 100-dma...Gold fell below the 200-dma and is battling support in the 1250 zone which....2% retracement of the rally since December...What's keeping the dollar bid? One is a growing sense that no matter who....The data is also solid and Friday's non-farm payrolls report may raise the....Finally, the euro slid after the ECB's Constancio categorically denied this....The euro fell a half and is now near the Sept lows...Watch for comments from Draghi on the weekend...On the upcoming calendar are releases from Australia and Japan...Up first at 2230 GMT, it's the Australian AiG performance of....The prior reading was 46...6...It's unlikely to be a market mover but we keep a close eye on the sensitive....At 0000 GMT, the focus shifts to Japan and the August labor cash earnings....The consensus is for a +0...4% y/y rise following the +1...4% y/y climb in July...The drop in the pace is another sign of the seemingly impossible challenges....Looking to next week, note that China returns after Golden Week celebrations...Perhaps that will spark a bid in gold as it flirts with key support near $1250.