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  • Intraday Market Thought: Central Bankers vs Markets

    by Adam Button | Jan 21, 2016 0:14
    Central Bankers vs Markets Chart Central bankers continue to sound an 'all clear' signal while markets....The yen climbed once again Wednesday and the S&P 500 touched the lowest....There are 4 Premium Trades currently in progress and an additional one will be....The chart below highlights the general picture for the S&P500 following....Ashraf will post the technical implications of the charts'....A full-on panic hit markets once again on Thursday and the S&P 500 broke....At the lows, the S&P 500 was down 69 points but it recovered alongside oil....The US CPI report was slightly below estimates at -0...1% m/m compared to a flat reading expected but the core reading matched....1% consensus...Unruffled BoC....The main focus of the day was the Bank of Canada decision...The market was evenly divided on what might come with many believing falling....Poloz thought differently and he wasn't dovish either...The result was a quick spike higher in the Canadian dollar...As oil and stock markets plunged, however, the move retraced but later....The close lower in USD/CAD ended a 13 day streak of gains...What's striking is how Poloz's reading on the economy differs....He remains optimistic on non-resource exports and the US economy...He's not alone...Other central bankers appear to be seeing a fear different world than....If markets are right, many central bankers will suffer (more) hits to their....The Fed is in a particularly tough position and the US dollar also has the....At the moment, the Fed is in a blackout period ahead of the FOMC...ECB is next....Up next is the ECB...A report from MNI Wednesday said there would be no serious discussion of new....The question is: Will Draghi also ignore the signals from markets and signal....There is a good chance he will and that may help the euro in the short term...But if markets continue to wilt, how long can that optimism last?..

  • Intraday Market Thought: Implicit BoJ Depreciation Means more Explicit PBOC Devaluation

    by Ashraf Laidi | Jan 29, 2016 9:18
    Implicit BoJ Depreciation Means more Explicit PBOC Devaluation Chart The BoJ's decision to cut the interest rate on current account....10% highlights the beginning of the end of Japan's asset purchase program....The fact that the BoJ voted 5-4 in favour of negative rates and 8-1 to keep....At the current pace of asset purchases (which include Japanese Government Bonds....It won't happen...But where will it find the extra bonds when current holders of JGBs (insurance....Insurers need JGBs for asset-liability balancing, while pension funds such as....Slashing rates to negative is aimed at encouraging banks to lend, rather than....If the BoJ means what it says and deepens the path to negative rates, it....Market-Friendly Yen Devaluation means more Unfriendly Yuan Devaluation....The yen's violent ascent of the past 5 weeks was instrumental in the BoJ'....The BoJ said it is ready to slash rates further, a decision, which reflects....As Japan continues to devalue its currency via negative interest rates,....The negative market implications from further CNY devaluation versus the....China will have no choice but to further devalue its currency as CNYJPY rose 75%....nbsp; Further devaluation is inevitable and its impact on global markets will be....A new JPY trade has been issued in our Premium Insights, with supporting charts..

  • Intraday Market Thought: Déjà Vu All Over Again

    by Adam Button | Feb 2, 2016 23:49
    Déjà Vu All Over Again Chart It was Groundhog Day on Tuesday and the Bill Murray movie of the same name was a....The yen led the way as oil, stock markets and commodity currencies dropped...However the New Zealand dollar rebounded on a blockbuster employment report in....Yesterday's Premium  trade in gold was supported with technical charts....A new JPY trade was added today...فيديو العربي...59...دقيقة كاملة على البورصات، الذهب، العملات و النفط...nbsp;....The Fed didn't do the market any favours today as George continued to....US data on car sales were a healthy sign for the consumer but those small....More energy market problems resurfaced by a second day of heavy downgrades and....The ratings agency cut Chevron and put the major US producers on credit watch....More importantly, that same credit stress is hitting smaller indebted oil....It's also hitting oil-exporting sovereigns and there is persistent talk....At the moment, the resilience in CAD remains impressive...Oil has fallen $5 from last week's highs and yen USD/CAD is just 150 pips....What offers hope to the USD/CAD bears is something of a pattern developing in....In January, Poloz was upbeat on the non-commodity sector...Yesterday, Stevens was similarly positive on the outlook for the domestic....Today, New Zealand announced a shocking drop in unemployment to 5...3% from 6...1% in Q4...There is no doubt that parts of Canada, Australia and New Zealand will be hard....That may be a factor of the exchange rate, economic flexibility or built-up....Or it might just be a matter of time before they crack...The next data on the agenda is Australian trade balance at 0030 GMT...It's expected at a deficit of 2...45m million but we will closely watch the breakdown of imports and exports...If exports rise, it could be a sign that a weak AUD is helping...At 0145 GMT, the Caixin China services PMI is due for release...The prior reading was 50...2...It's not likely to be a big market mover...Fifteen minutes later, the Japan PMI for services is out...The prior reading was 51...5.

  • Intraday Market Thought: What Markets Say is more Important than what Fed Says

    by Adam Button | Jan 28, 2016 0:37
    What Markets Say is more Important than what Fed Says Chart The Fed offered several dovish hints in the FOMC statement revealed Wednesday....The Australian dollar was the top performer while the kiwi lagged...The NZD softness came after the RBNZ hinted at more cuts...A new Premium trade has been issued after the Fed statemeny, ahead of....The Fed delivered a dovish FOMC statement...Realistically, it was the biggest nod they could give markets without....The Fed was incorrect to hike rates in December but this is a signal that they....Omissions & Edits....The Fed removed a line about growth expanding at a 'moderate pace'....More important was what they left out...The line on risks being balanced was removed and a reference to being '....That final point is particularly telling because getting to a 'reasonably....Removing it was a clear indication the Fed doesn't plan to hike in March...What's more telling today was how markets reacted...We often say that how markets react to news is more important than the news....This was good news and markets still didn't like it...Analysts often like to fit the news to the market moves and some are even....It wasn't...nbsp; This should have been good news for risk trades...Instead they faltered and that argues for more trouble ahead...It may only be a late day blip and real money could spark a reversal tomorrow....The other divergence we continue to monitor is oil...Crude rose 2...3% Wednesday and yet stocks declined more than 1%....For the past month, the positive correlation has been very tight and we....The other central bank in the headlines was the RBNZ as rates were held....50%, as expected following the December cut...RBNZ's Wheeler also underscored global markets and economies as areas....nbsp; The statement added the line that 'further policy easing may be....The focus now shifts to Japan and retail sales...The recent trade data underscored that FX weakness has not been the cure-all....That's a lesson Japanese officials may be learning as they allow the yen to....The health of the consumer is today's concern with December retail sales due....The consensus is for a 1...0% m/m gain...nbsp;  ..

  • Intraday Market Thought: USD Recovers Ahead of NFP, Tankan Next

    by Adam Button | Mar 31, 2016 22:40
    USD Recovers Ahead of NFP, Tankan Next Chart The US dollar was battered in European trading but finally found some support....nbsp; The Swiss franc was the top performer while the yen lagged...The critical Q1 Tankan survey is due up next nefore China's PMIs...After closing the Premium EURUSD long with 188 pip gain, a special note on why....The chart below describes this statistical anomaly with full details/....nbsp;....The first quarter wrapped up with choppy reversals in US trading as the Dollar....Economic data was mixed...Initial jobless claims deteriorated to 276K from 265K and that sent a mild....It was balanced out by the Chicago PMI, which improved to 53...6 from 47...6 and beat the 50...7 consensus estimate...The US dollar bottomed for the day shortly after the Chicago PMI...EUR/USD had risen above 1...14, taking out the Feb high of 1...1376 but then retreating to close at 1...1378...The lack of follow through higher ahead of NFP isn't a big surprise...The market will want to wait-and-see the number – and especially the wages....The Canadian dollar was whipsawed...USD/CAD dropped to 1...2855 after Canada's Jan GDP report showed 0...6% growth compared to 0...3% expected...The move later reversed and more to finish at 1...3000, in part because the report is dated and in part because oil prices....Quarter-end no doubt played a factor as well...Early in Asia-Pacific trading the Fed's Dudley said the US economy was in a....Those two statements offer something for everyone but moved the market little...The major report to start the quarter in Japan is the Q1 Tankan at 2350 GMT...The large manufacturing index is expected at +8 from +12 in Q4...All industry capex is forecast to fall 0...7% while the small manufacturing index is expected at -2...The deteriorating numbers ratchet up the pressure on the government and BOJ to....The other main event to watch is the China manufacturing PMI at 0100 GMT...The consensus call is a small improvement to 49...4 from 49...0 but that could have an outsized impact on markets is China breathes a sigh of....Watch the Caixin PMI 45 minutes later to confirm the result...It's forecast at 48...3 from 48...0...Q1 performance...JPY +6...8%....EUR +4...8%....CAD +6...4%....GBP -2...5%....Gold +16...2%....S&P 500 +0...77%....UK FTSE -1...1%....German DAX -7...2%....Nikkei 225 -11...9%....Shanghai Comp -15...1%....nbsp; ..

  • Intraday Market Thought: Why the BOJ could Wait

    by Adam Button | Apr 26, 2016 0:27
    Why the BOJ could Wait Chart A hint on Bank of Japan thinking added more intrigue to this week's full....Markets were contained on the day as the yen rebounded and was the top performer;....Australia and New Zealand return from holidays but the Asia-Pacific calendar....There are no JPY trades in the Premium trades but Tuesday's upcoming video....nbsp; There are currently 6 Premium trades in progress...A story flew under the radar on Monday was hint from Etsuro Honda that the BOJ....He is a top adviser to the Prime Minister and sometimes called the....He said it would be an 'acceptable judgement' for the BOJ to wait....Aside from his insider status, that comment carries special weight because....His reasoning is that further action may have more impact if it's announced....That's something that would be possible in June...The BOJ may also wish to wait and see what the Fed decides to shape its FOMC....If Yellen opts to remove the 'accommodative' bias in the statement....The market is pricing in just a 20% chance of a hike in June...Those who don't see a hike will ultimately be proven correct but the Fed....In order to do that, they need to send a fairly strong signal about the....In the past, delicate musings along with well-timed comments from FOMC members....Economic data was light on the day...New home sales were at 511K compared to 520K expected but the release was....Look for better action from Tuesday's slate of durable goods orders,....The Asia-Pacific calendar is empty but look for more active trading in AUD and..

  • Intraday Market Thought: Dollar Presses Higher, Kuroda and NZ Retail Sales Next

    by Adam Button | May 12, 2016 23:16
    Dollar Presses Higher, Kuroda and NZ Retail Sales Next Chart A small stumble in the US dollar Thursday was quickly erased in another....CAD was the top performer while AUD lagged in a sign of the broader lack of....That could begin to change with New Zealand retail sales and a speech from....2 new Premium trades involving a commodity currency were added today,....The dollar showed some life once again despite a jump in initial jobless claims...Midday rises in the euro, yen and sterling were later wiped out in a day....Initial jobless claims rose 294K compared to 270K expected...Fed hawks Mester and George were on the wires but the market remains ....That theme could begin to change on Friday with the release of April retail....The past three retail sales reports have disappointed and that's been a....The Fed is confident that better jobs numbers will eventually lead to more....The consensus is for a +0...4% in the control group and that's the key metric to watch...The market is struggling to find a theme at the moment...The BOJ is likely to fill that gap...Abe is considering more stimulus, delaying the planned consumption tax....He will surely call on Kuroda to help as well (the BOJ isn't independent)....We will get hints about what's coming next in a 0330 GMT speech from....The tertiary index is an hour later and expected to fall 0...1% in yet-another sign that the economy isn't improving...But first, at 2245 GMT, Q1 New Zealand retail sales report is due...Top tier economic data in New Zealand is infrequent and – like the Q1....Sales ex inflation are expected to rise 1...0% q/q...That would be a solid pace and may take a bit of pressure off the RBNZ...If the number disappoints, this week's low of 0...6713 in NZD/USD could quickly be back in focus and below that, support thins out,..

  • Intraday Market Thought: Yen Sags, RBNZ Actions Point to Cut

    by Adam Button | Jul 19, 2016 0:17
    Yen Sags, RBNZ Actions Point to Cut Chart Yen weakness was the dominant theme on Monday...The pound was the top performer in light, choppy trading...Japan returns from holiday but the calendar is focused on Australia and the....The kiwi fell in early trading after the RBNZ introduced loan restrictions...Ashraf warned Premium clients in Friday's London session against NZD by....Both NZD trades are currently in progress...Premium videos will be released later tonight ahead of Tuesday's UK CPI...http://ashraflaidi...com/ratetable/performancetable...Yen weakness to start the week was generally ascribed to the failure of the....The July 29 BoJ meeting is critical for the near-term outlook in yen crosses and....Technically, USD/JPY is pushing up against Friday's high of 106...31 and then may challenge the pre-Brexit high of 106...81...Economic data was light on the day...The lone notable release was the NAHB housing survey and it fell to 59 from 60....Turning to New Zealand, the chance of an RBNZ August cut jumped in the past week,....Last week, Wheeler revealed that an unusual economic forecast update will be....Yesterday, Q2 CPI missed estimates...Today, the RBNZ said it plans to introduce tougher home-lending rules on....The RBNZ's Spencer said two weeks ago those rules might not come until....Taken together, the 76% chance of a cut that's priced into the OIS market....The only event on the economic calendar in Asia-Pacific trading is the release....The market is pricing in a 53% chance of an August cut and this is a clear....The minutes are out at 0130 GMT...The action will pick up later with the UK CPI and German ZEW reports.

  • Intraday Market Thought: Fed Jawbone Unbroken, NZ Jobs next

    by Adam Button | Aug 16, 2016 23:28
    Fed Jawbone Unbroken, NZ Jobs next Chart We mulled the inability of central bankers to influence markets yesterday....The pound was the top performer on Tuesday while the US dollar lagged....The New Zealand jobs report is due next...A new index trade was issued earlier today...There are 2 NZD trades in progress ahead of the upcoming NZ jobs...The Video for Premium subscribers is posted below...The Fed's Dudley stole the focus from the US inflation report on Tuesday...CPI ex-food and energy rose 0...1% in July compared to 0...2% expected but dollar weakness on the headlines was swamped by a hint at a....The NY Fed chief said a hike in September was possible...The Fed fund futures market was pricing in a 22% chance of a hike before the....The dollar rebound extended after US industrial production rose 0...7% in July compared to 0...3% expected...The turnaround prevented a USD/JPY close below 100...00 for the first time 2013...Despite the 75 pip climb from the lows, the pair still finished in deeply....The Fed's Lockhart also helped the US dollar with a comment that two Fed....The main risk he highlighted was poor business investment...The comments today showed the Fed's jawbone, at least, isn't broken but....The market can't help but fear a hike while any easing bias can be....We also question if the dollar bounce can be sustained by talk that doesn'....The market may have moved more than would normally be expected on hawkish....Ultimately, the Fed has failed countless times to back up tough talk on rates....One central bank with plenty of room for traditional stimulus is the RBNZ...They will get a critical reading on the economy in the next 15 mins with the Q2....Expectations are high with the unemployment rate forecast to fall to 5...3% from 5...7%....Make sure to watch the corresponding participation rate...It's forecast to fall to 68...8% from 69...0% and that would cover nearly half the 'improvement' in joblessness...The other data point on the agenda is the Q2 Australian wage price index at....It's forecast to rise 0...5% q/q.

  • Intraday Market Thought: Inflated Expectations

    by Adam Button | Aug 29, 2016 22:58
    Inflated Expectations Chart The Fed's preferred inflation measure didn't add any urgency to....The dollar finished the day as the top performer on continued momentum from....Key data on Australian housing and Japanese consumers is due next...Friday's UK jobs report will be the week's main event, but Wednesday'....Gold will be the focus of this week's Premium video ahead of NFP...nbsp;  ....The PCE report showed that US inflation rose 0...8% year-over-year in July...That low number matched expectations and underscored the needlessness of hiking....The low inflation number isn't an artifact of slow commodity inflation a....In month-over-month terms, inflation was flat and has average just a 0...1% m/m rise over the past three and six-month periods...Core inflation is a touch hotter at 1...6% y/y but slowed from 1...7% and aside from fanciful hopes that a 'tight' labor market will lead....The bond market may be signalling some apprehension about the hawkish rate talk...On Monday, yields moved lower across the curve including 7 bps lower in 10s...Stock markets also showed some diminished fears with the S&P 500....The dollar was a different story as the momentum higher continued, albeit at a....nbsp; Late in the day, USD began to take the hint from bonds and pared some of....With a trio of Fed doves coming up on Wednesday in Evans, Rosengren and....On the data front, housing in Australia and Japan are in focus...There are some preliminary signs of a slowdown in Australian home construction;....9% in June after a 5...4% decline in May...The outlook isn't any better for the July data at 0130 GMT...The main focus is on Japan as BOJ speculation mounts...It would take an extraordinary turn in the numbers to derail Kuroda's plan....At 2330 GMT numbers are due out on jobs, household spending and retail sales.
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