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Results: 981 to 990 of 1,000
Results: 981 to 990 of 1,000
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Intraday Market Thought: What Markets Say is more Important than what Fed Says
by Adam Button | Jan 28, 2016 0:37
The Fed offered several dovish hints in the FOMC statement revealed Wednesday....The Australian dollar was the top performer while the kiwi lagged...The NZD softness came after the RBNZ hinted at more cuts...A new Premium trade has been issued after the Fed statemeny, ahead of....The Fed delivered a dovish FOMC statement...Realistically, it was the biggest nod they could give markets without....The Fed was incorrect to hike rates in December but this is a signal that they....Omissions & Edits....The Fed removed a line about growth expanding at a 'moderate pace'....More important was what they left out...The line on risks being balanced was removed and a reference to being '....That final point is particularly telling because getting to a 'reasonably....Removing it was a clear indication the Fed doesn't plan to hike in March...What's more telling today was how markets reacted...We often say that how markets react to news is more important than the news....This was good news and markets still didn't like it...Analysts often like to fit the news to the market moves and some are even....It wasn't...nbsp; This should have been good news for risk trades...Instead they faltered and that argues for more trouble ahead...It may only be a late day blip and real money could spark a reversal tomorrow....The other divergence we continue to monitor is oil...Crude rose 2...3% Wednesday and yet stocks declined more than 1%....For the past month, the positive correlation has been very tight and we....The other central bank in the headlines was the RBNZ as rates were held....50%, as expected following the December cut...RBNZ's Wheeler also underscored global markets and economies as areas....nbsp; The statement added the line that 'further policy easing may be....The focus now shifts to Japan and retail sales...The recent trade data underscored that FX weakness has not been the cure-all....That's a lesson Japanese officials may be learning as they allow the yen to....The health of the consumer is today's concern with December retail sales due....The consensus is for a 1...0% m/m gain...nbsp; ..
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Intraday Market Thought: USD Recovers Ahead of NFP, Tankan Next
by Adam Button | Mar 31, 2016 22:40
The US dollar was battered in European trading but finally found some support....nbsp; The Swiss franc was the top performer while the yen lagged...The critical Q1 Tankan survey is due up next nefore China's PMIs...After closing the Premium EURUSD long with 188 pip gain, a special note on why....The chart below describes this statistical anomaly with full details/....nbsp;....The first quarter wrapped up with choppy reversals in US trading as the Dollar....Economic data was mixed...Initial jobless claims deteriorated to 276K from 265K and that sent a mild....It was balanced out by the Chicago PMI, which improved to 53...6 from 47...6 and beat the 50...7 consensus estimate...The US dollar bottomed for the day shortly after the Chicago PMI...EUR/USD had risen above 1...14, taking out the Feb high of 1...1376 but then retreating to close at 1...1378...The lack of follow through higher ahead of NFP isn't a big surprise...The market will want to wait-and-see the number – and especially the wages....The Canadian dollar was whipsawed...USD/CAD dropped to 1...2855 after Canada's Jan GDP report showed 0...6% growth compared to 0...3% expected...The move later reversed and more to finish at 1...3000, in part because the report is dated and in part because oil prices....Quarter-end no doubt played a factor as well...Early in Asia-Pacific trading the Fed's Dudley said the US economy was in a....Those two statements offer something for everyone but moved the market little...The major report to start the quarter in Japan is the Q1 Tankan at 2350 GMT...The large manufacturing index is expected at +8 from +12 in Q4...All industry capex is forecast to fall 0...7% while the small manufacturing index is expected at -2...The deteriorating numbers ratchet up the pressure on the government and BOJ to....The other main event to watch is the China manufacturing PMI at 0100 GMT...The consensus call is a small improvement to 49...4 from 49...0 but that could have an outsized impact on markets is China breathes a sigh of....Watch the Caixin PMI 45 minutes later to confirm the result...It's forecast at 48...3 from 48...0...Q1 performance...JPY +6...8%....EUR +4...8%....CAD +6...4%....GBP -2...5%....Gold +16...2%....S&P 500 +0...77%....UK FTSE -1...1%....German DAX -7...2%....Nikkei 225 -11...9%....Shanghai Comp -15...1%....nbsp; ..
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Intraday Market Thought: Why the BOJ could Wait
by Adam Button | Apr 26, 2016 0:27
A hint on Bank of Japan thinking added more intrigue to this week's full....Markets were contained on the day as the yen rebounded and was the top performer;....Australia and New Zealand return from holidays but the Asia-Pacific calendar....There are no JPY trades in the Premium trades but Tuesday's upcoming video....nbsp; There are currently 6 Premium trades in progress...A story flew under the radar on Monday was hint from Etsuro Honda that the BOJ....He is a top adviser to the Prime Minister and sometimes called the....He said it would be an 'acceptable judgement' for the BOJ to wait....Aside from his insider status, that comment carries special weight because....His reasoning is that further action may have more impact if it's announced....That's something that would be possible in June...The BOJ may also wish to wait and see what the Fed decides to shape its FOMC....If Yellen opts to remove the 'accommodative' bias in the statement....The market is pricing in just a 20% chance of a hike in June...Those who don't see a hike will ultimately be proven correct but the Fed....In order to do that, they need to send a fairly strong signal about the....In the past, delicate musings along with well-timed comments from FOMC members....Economic data was light on the day...New home sales were at 511K compared to 520K expected but the release was....Look for better action from Tuesday's slate of durable goods orders,....The Asia-Pacific calendar is empty but look for more active trading in AUD and..
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Intraday Market Thought: Dollar Presses Higher, Kuroda and NZ Retail Sales Next
by Adam Button | May 12, 2016 23:16
A small stumble in the US dollar Thursday was quickly erased in another....CAD was the top performer while AUD lagged in a sign of the broader lack of....That could begin to change with New Zealand retail sales and a speech from....2 new Premium trades involving a commodity currency were added today,....The dollar showed some life once again despite a jump in initial jobless claims...Midday rises in the euro, yen and sterling were later wiped out in a day....Initial jobless claims rose 294K compared to 270K expected...Fed hawks Mester and George were on the wires but the market remains ....That theme could begin to change on Friday with the release of April retail....The past three retail sales reports have disappointed and that's been a....The Fed is confident that better jobs numbers will eventually lead to more....The consensus is for a +0...4% in the control group and that's the key metric to watch...The market is struggling to find a theme at the moment...The BOJ is likely to fill that gap...Abe is considering more stimulus, delaying the planned consumption tax....He will surely call on Kuroda to help as well (the BOJ isn't independent)....We will get hints about what's coming next in a 0330 GMT speech from....The tertiary index is an hour later and expected to fall 0...1% in yet-another sign that the economy isn't improving...But first, at 2245 GMT, Q1 New Zealand retail sales report is due...Top tier economic data in New Zealand is infrequent and – like the Q1....Sales ex inflation are expected to rise 1...0% q/q...That would be a solid pace and may take a bit of pressure off the RBNZ...If the number disappoints, this week's low of 0...6713 in NZD/USD could quickly be back in focus and below that, support thins out,..
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Intraday Market Thought: Yen Sags, RBNZ Actions Point to Cut
by Adam Button | Jul 19, 2016 0:17
Yen weakness was the dominant theme on Monday...The pound was the top performer in light, choppy trading...Japan returns from holiday but the calendar is focused on Australia and the....The kiwi fell in early trading after the RBNZ introduced loan restrictions...Ashraf warned Premium clients in Friday's London session against NZD by....Both NZD trades are currently in progress...Premium videos will be released later tonight ahead of Tuesday's UK CPI...http://ashraflaidi...com/ratetable/performancetable...Yen weakness to start the week was generally ascribed to the failure of the....The July 29 BoJ meeting is critical for the near-term outlook in yen crosses and....Technically, USD/JPY is pushing up against Friday's high of 106...31 and then may challenge the pre-Brexit high of 106...81...Economic data was light on the day...The lone notable release was the NAHB housing survey and it fell to 59 from 60....Turning to New Zealand, the chance of an RBNZ August cut jumped in the past week,....Last week, Wheeler revealed that an unusual economic forecast update will be....Yesterday, Q2 CPI missed estimates...Today, the RBNZ said it plans to introduce tougher home-lending rules on....The RBNZ's Spencer said two weeks ago those rules might not come until....Taken together, the 76% chance of a cut that's priced into the OIS market....The only event on the economic calendar in Asia-Pacific trading is the release....The market is pricing in a 53% chance of an August cut and this is a clear....The minutes are out at 0130 GMT...The action will pick up later with the UK CPI and German ZEW reports.
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Intraday Market Thought: Fed Jawbone Unbroken, NZ Jobs next
by Adam Button | Aug 16, 2016 23:28
We mulled the inability of central bankers to influence markets yesterday....The pound was the top performer on Tuesday while the US dollar lagged....The New Zealand jobs report is due next...A new index trade was issued earlier today...There are 2 NZD trades in progress ahead of the upcoming NZ jobs...The Video for Premium subscribers is posted below...The Fed's Dudley stole the focus from the US inflation report on Tuesday...CPI ex-food and energy rose 0...1% in July compared to 0...2% expected but dollar weakness on the headlines was swamped by a hint at a....The NY Fed chief said a hike in September was possible...The Fed fund futures market was pricing in a 22% chance of a hike before the....The dollar rebound extended after US industrial production rose 0...7% in July compared to 0...3% expected...The turnaround prevented a USD/JPY close below 100...00 for the first time 2013...Despite the 75 pip climb from the lows, the pair still finished in deeply....The Fed's Lockhart also helped the US dollar with a comment that two Fed....The main risk he highlighted was poor business investment...The comments today showed the Fed's jawbone, at least, isn't broken but....The market can't help but fear a hike while any easing bias can be....We also question if the dollar bounce can be sustained by talk that doesn'....The market may have moved more than would normally be expected on hawkish....Ultimately, the Fed has failed countless times to back up tough talk on rates....One central bank with plenty of room for traditional stimulus is the RBNZ...They will get a critical reading on the economy in the next 15 mins with the Q2....Expectations are high with the unemployment rate forecast to fall to 5...3% from 5...7%....Make sure to watch the corresponding participation rate...It's forecast to fall to 68...8% from 69...0% and that would cover nearly half the 'improvement' in joblessness...The other data point on the agenda is the Q2 Australian wage price index at....It's forecast to rise 0...5% q/q.
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Intraday Market Thought: Inflated Expectations
by Adam Button | Aug 29, 2016 22:58
The Fed's preferred inflation measure didn't add any urgency to....The dollar finished the day as the top performer on continued momentum from....Key data on Australian housing and Japanese consumers is due next...Friday's UK jobs report will be the week's main event, but Wednesday'....Gold will be the focus of this week's Premium video ahead of NFP...nbsp; ....The PCE report showed that US inflation rose 0...8% year-over-year in July...That low number matched expectations and underscored the needlessness of hiking....The low inflation number isn't an artifact of slow commodity inflation a....In month-over-month terms, inflation was flat and has average just a 0...1% m/m rise over the past three and six-month periods...Core inflation is a touch hotter at 1...6% y/y but slowed from 1...7% and aside from fanciful hopes that a 'tight' labor market will lead....The bond market may be signalling some apprehension about the hawkish rate talk...On Monday, yields moved lower across the curve including 7 bps lower in 10s...Stock markets also showed some diminished fears with the S&P 500....The dollar was a different story as the momentum higher continued, albeit at a....nbsp; Late in the day, USD began to take the hint from bonds and pared some of....With a trio of Fed doves coming up on Wednesday in Evans, Rosengren and....On the data front, housing in Australia and Japan are in focus...There are some preliminary signs of a slowdown in Australian home construction;....9% in June after a 5...4% decline in May...The outlook isn't any better for the July data at 0130 GMT...The main focus is on Japan as BOJ speculation mounts...It would take an extraordinary turn in the numbers to derail Kuroda's plan....At 2330 GMT numbers are due out on jobs, household spending and retail sales.
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Intraday Market Thought: ECB Taper on Table, Gold off it
by Adam Button | Oct 4, 2016 23:32
A report that the ECB is considering taper bond purchases sparked a round of....The US dollar was the top performer in a volatile session while the yen lagged...New 31-year lows in GBPUSD and gold breaking below 1300 were the other big....Japan's services PMI from Nikkei is due up later along with Australian....Last night's Premium Insights pre-RBA trade has been filled as it nears....The ECB is thinking about tapering bond purchases, according to a Bloomberg....The question is: when?....The euro jumped nearly a cent on the initial headlines on the impression that....Later, the gains were halved on the idea that the ECB is more talking about....The story itself seems to swing both ways...They highlight that the ECB is running out of assets to buy (true) and wants to....Naturally, the ECB denied it but even the denial only went half-way...They said the ECB didn't discuss tapering at the Governing Council....But the Bloomberg story stated that tapering was later discussed...The market remains skeptical, but tapering now (and maintaining the size....Anyone who watched the last 2 ECB press conferences would notice that Draghi'....Extending the duration of asset purchases beyond March 2017 is the most....Expanding the size of the program was considered unsustainable due to the....After today's taper story, QE expansion is pretty much out of the....nbsp;....Aside from the ECB story, markets were volatile on Tuesday and the US dollar....Bonds and stocks sold off at the same time...The dollar gains came in spite of the IMF lowering its US growth forecast this....6% from 2...2%....USD has shown time and again that it's tough to hold down...USD/JPY broke above the downtrend since May and is approaching the 100-day....76...The yen may react later to the Nikkei services PMI at 0030 GMT...The prior reading was 49...6...The more-important release is Australian August retail sales at 0030 GMT...The RBA held yesterday but it didn't add much to AUD/USD...The consensus is +0...2% m/m.
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Intraday Market Thought: Oil Slumps, RBA, BoJ next
by Adam Button | Nov 1, 2016 1:35
November roars to life in the day ahead with the RBA and BOJ decision on deck...It comes after a sharp fall in oil to end October and the Fed decision looming....We also take a look at November seasonals...The short oil trade in the Premium Insights held since Sep 30 is now in a....There are also 2 CAD-related trades...The Premium Video below covers the existing trades...The market understandably ignored US economic data on Monday with so much on....On the downside, the Chicago PMI slumped to 50...6 compared to 54...0 expected...On the positive side, personal spending rose 0...5% in Sept compared to 0...4% expected...PCE core inflation was in-line with estimates at 1...7% y/y...Cable finished a dismal month with a 60 pip gain...Much of it came in a flurry ahead of the London close in what looked like month-....That's not as long as his full that expires in 2012 but it's longer than....Oil was the big mover on the day as WTI crude fell 4% to wipe out the monthly....Diminishing chances of an OPEC deal as Iran and Iraq look for exemptions hurt....November is the second-weakest month on the calendar over the past decade for....Given that, it's no surprise that November is also a weak month for CAD...Other notable seasonals are that cable traditionally struggles in Nov and EUR/....It's generally a good month for the US dollar and a middling month for....Looking ahead, the RBA and BOJ decisions are both due in the hours ahead...Policy moves are a longshot with no chance of a BOJ change priced in and....3% likelihood of an RBA move...The BOJ is still rolling out its yield-curve control policy so we don't....The RBA is out at 0330 GMT and the BOJ in the usual 0230-0330 GMT range, likely..
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Media: City Index Ranks #1 in FX Forecasts
by Ashraf Laidi | Oct 28, 2013 14:31
Ashraf Laidi's currency forecasts lift City Index to the top of the rank..
