Posts by "daveo"

If it breaks below the 1.4 level we should see some decent trending again. Confounded range still prevails in the meantime.

Chloe, your Q on eurusd daily timeframe I answered back along. Its been building an enormous HVN with the tip at c.4300 within the 3950-4700 range. This condition is the most difficult to trade or analyse for daily t/f trading. Scalping this pair is the name of the game until we get a clear break.

Personally I only take the occasional short scalp, there are much easier pairs to trade for the time being. If the 12th July low had made a symmetry pattern at 3726ish I would see a bullish case but that low fell well shy at 3836 rendering the pattern unreadable. The overall pattern from the 4938 high to today is a rather messy declining channel which may or may not have been broken to the upside yesterday.

When we consider the fundamentals over the last few months with eurozone leaders incapable of grasping the nettle the mkts are suffering much uncertainty and confusion. This is reflected in the daily chart.

It fits EW arch guru Prechter who been calling his 120yr super cycle since the end of the bull mkt in stocks in 2000. He started alerting 2 or 3 yrs before the 2000 highs. The 2002 lows were the first wave down with the 2007 highs a corrective which exceeded previous highs due to greenspan at the M.3 helm with ensuing us dollar depreciation. I believe from memory he sees Dow ultimately at c.600 :-)
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LanCLS_hIo4

Lawrence, I have regularly expressed my opinion re gold versus silver characteristics during times of great fear in the mkts. I have also often highlighted the technical differences in regard to silver's parabolic move up during feb, march and april this year as compared to gold's more structured advances and retracements. For me gold has always been a better instrument to analyse (and therefor to trade) than silver.

AL attaches much importance to the gold silver ratio being out of kilter but it darned sure does not help us where timing is concerned for actual trading. Eventually he will be right about the disparity currently existing resulting in a balancing move but that is only of potential value to very long term traders who care little for large drawdowns and massive sl's being required. Recent example of him attempting to trade silver long with tightish stops makes my point. Gold has been easy and EXTREMELY rewarding in the current market environment which has been one of "fear" !

GBP room looking lonely and all our political "leaders" away on their hols while stock mkts crash and the various crises continue to deteriorate.

When city of London return from their hols in September the square mile will be greeted with the first serious round of redundancies. This is long overdue and will mark the start of our country's need to getting serious about diversification away from useless criminal pursuits into producing something of value to mankind once again.

In 2003 I thought our property mkt had peaked so I sold my farm and one or two other properties. The farm went to a city manager of a US investment co for his holiday home. Prices then proceeded to double again by 2007 and even now whilst property prices in the regions are about 10% down from their peak, agricultural land prices have continued on up. I have a feeling I shall see an opportunity of buying that farm back again at somewhat less than it sold for, just for the hell of it. Just a case of patience now.