Posts by "frankbrit"

I've not been following CHF much but it seems quite extended. At the end of the day the market will eventually feel that it's too expensive v. USD or whatever and sell it off. But there'll need to be more evidence of global 'normality' for that to happen.

Pegs get broken if they are not built for the job. I thought the same yesterday but putting up a peg could be a red rag to a Yen bull. Remember that Ozawa - the PM loser - was anti-US. Kan - the winner - is appeasing the opposition (it was a tight vote in the land of harmony), the business community and the U.S. (buying UST and playing tag with Geithner v. China to pressure the Chinese to go 'free' market on the RNB). There'll be more sabre rattling to come which will likely only rattle the market strengthen JPY. So Japan seems to be playing with fire.

I'm starting to build a position around 0.96 with an initial target of 0.945. Let's see ...

I agree but I think the timing was quite good. Letting the markets know before a possible easing by the FED that they are not just jawboning. AUD last night was looking rather weak v. JPY considering the strength v. the USD and by intervening they have managed to muddy the technical waters a bit and leave us all scratching our head for a few days. However, I agree that the whole exercise seems futile and could even be counter productive as with CHF.

Reuters reported this morning that Japan stood ready to give a second dose during Tokyo trading if need be. But it might be rather dumb to fire more ammo when the market is hunkered down in the trench already. It's Kan showing that though he's not pro-interventionist he will take a stand and he does listen to Japanese business. Having jawboned for so long they wanted to show they had teeth too.