Forum Posts by : frankbrit (Forum Member)

FrankBrit

Frankfurt am Main, Germany

Posts: 73

14 years ago

Feb 5, 2010 16:27

In Thread: Aussie Dressed up but where to Go?

@ Tarun. Zoom out on to the weeklies to get some perspective on just how oversold things can get.

FrankBrit

Frankfurt am Main, Germany

Posts: 73

14 years ago

Feb 5, 2010 16:14

In Thread: Aussie Dressed up but where to Go?

@ said. There are charts out there with 30 years. But as I said, I think one must take EW with a pinch of salt - sometimes it seems clear other times it seems subjective - one has to be careful not to see what isn't there. It's dangerous to extrapolate too far but it can be useful for getting a feel structure. I think USD/JPY (less volatile) has a fairly clear structure but others are sometimes rather difficult to see - at least to me. I think AUD/JPY is a trickier one - perhaps because of the volatility.

FrankBrit

Frankfurt am Main, Germany

Posts: 73

14 years ago

Feb 3, 2010 15:32

In Thread: Aussie Dressed up but where to Go?

@ said. I agree with your view. I have a small dummy trade going long from 80.50 - so no skin in the game (just using it to keep me sharp for cash movement). Let's see ...

FrankBrit

Frankfurt am Main, Germany

Posts: 73

14 years ago

Feb 3, 2010 13:38

In Thread: Aussie Dressed up but where to Go?

@ said - AUD/JPY challenging the daily trend line from the c.86 high now ... Wouldn't want to bet against the AUD just yet. I agree, at 2.00 pm ECT yesterday a break eithere way looked possible bit the spike low to 79.10 showed an exhaustion gap on 8 hr chart and now the indicators are looking more positive (daily stochastics have turned). Subject to US trading plenty of room for AUD to strengthen yet to 81-82 range. Big tests now and at 81.15. I want to go short but I am aware that no daily lower low has been shown for months ... Timing is tricky on this one.

FrankBrit

Frankfurt am Main, Germany

Posts: 73

14 years ago

Feb 2, 2010 13:16

In Thread: Aussie Dressed up but where to Go?

@ said. I'm thinking 25 Oct to 10 Jan top is a flat creating a double top and that the most recent downwave from 10 Jan is the first wave of the down move completing 5 waves at 79.10. Which is why I feel that the move since 79.10 is likely corrective and possibly still continuing to 81.30. However, though I take EW with a dose of salts in the rumble / tumble of reality - that's the only reading I can make from it just now. As usual, we'll have to wait and see.

FrankBrit

Frankfurt am Main, Germany

Posts: 73

14 years ago

Feb 2, 2010 11:36

In Thread: Aussie Dressed up but where to Go?

Noted @ said. So talking technicals are we in the third wave of a 3 wave correction in AUD/JPY from the recent 79.12 low - what do you think? Saw your comment on EUR/USD possible final target for EUR/USD (c. 1.25) any thoughts on the AUD/JPY possible final target?

FrankBrit

Frankfurt am Main, Germany

Posts: 73

14 years ago

Feb 2, 2010 11:13

In Thread: Aussie Dressed up but where to Go?

@ said. Noted your correction ref. AUD or JPY gain - but still interested to have your thoughts on my 3rd paragraph. Another one for you: is a 3 wave correction underway with AUD/JPY (i.e. now just beginning wave 3 on 4 hourly) - or is has the third downwave of the AUD/JPY already started?

FrankBrit

Frankfurt am Main, Germany

Posts: 73

14 years ago

Feb 2, 2010 10:53

In Thread: Aussie Dressed up but where to Go?

P.S. what's a good entry level on shorting AUD/JPY? I don't feel I've good a good handle on this pair ... it still hasn't made a daily low ... rather frustrating ... :-(

FrankBrit

Frankfurt am Main, Germany

Posts: 73

14 years ago

Feb 2, 2010 10:47

In Thread: Aussie Dressed up but where to Go?

Thanks for your kind feedback Ashraf - noted that AUD running out of steam .v. USD and JPY and not much retracement expected in either - i.e. downside acceleration in AUD.

@ said. Why do you feel the JPY rally against the commodity currencies will be short-lived? Firstly, how long is short lived? Second, how long can they go?

I guess you're implying that this might be the last big charge of the JPY before the USD takes over or (depending on the nature of the recovery, strength, inflation, etc) the commodity currencies bounce back?

Look forward to your thoughts.

FrankBrit

Frankfurt am Main, Germany

Posts: 73

14 years ago

Feb 1, 2010 19:06

In Thread: Aussie Dressed up but where to Go?

Ashraf, noted your comments on AUD/JPY on your video link - thanks.

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