Forum

Posts by "frankbrit"

View Member Profile
80 Posts Total by "frankbrit":
73 Posts by member
FrankBrit
(Frankfurt am Main, Germany)
7 Posts by Anonymous "frankbrit":
12345678
FrankBrit
Germany
Posted Anonymously
14 years ago
Jan 21, 2010 21:50
In Thread: Don't Forget the Yen
@ said - I played pips before and was too inexperienced, wasn't comfortable with the rapid tempo, too greedy and lost my discipline. The last was the killer vice ... discipline in planning and execution is the key and cooly understanding the extent one's exposure all the while. In addition, add a large dollop of humility.

The longer game suits me much better at the moment and has been working very well since mid-2008. If I can find an FX provider with very low leverage levels available 10-50/1 rather than 100/1 then I might be interested to enter the shorter term fray again. For the time being dailies, weeklies and 1/1 cash is where I'm at.
FrankBrit
Frankfurt am Main, Germany
Posts: 73
14 years ago
Jan 21, 2010 21:39
In Thread: Don't Forget the Yen
@ said - I can only say that I have been bearish for a while and a weekly close about 90 would strengthen this outlook - a daily close around 89.50 next week could accelerate things. Personally, I hope it doesn't go too fast so as not to play "Grandmother's footsteps" with the interventionists in Japan.
FrankBrit
Frankfurt am Main, Germany
Posts: 73
14 years ago
Jan 21, 2010 21:12
In Thread: Don't Forget the Yen
Ref last should read ... "I would NOT want to ..."
FrankBrit
Frankfurt am Main, Germany
Posts: 73
14 years ago
Jan 21, 2010 21:10
In Thread: Don't Forget the Yen
@ said - ref your last I guess you mean the 38 pct Fib from the last big move. I wouldn't feel comfortable with that ... Perhaps between there and the 50 pct at about 91 but I play the bigger picture more - dailies / weeklies - occasionally getting some "detail" on the 4 hourlies ... so I would want to say more than the daily/weekly trend looks downwards for the present. I only consider targets when I can identify a pattern and then impose the Fibs to see if it matches my own thoughts/targets from the pattern ... so the Fibs don't lead. That's just my way ... wrong / right? Don't know.
FrankBrit
Frankfurt am Main, Germany
Posts: 73
14 years ago
Jan 21, 2010 20:55
In Thread: Don't Forget the Yen
@ said - don't disagree with you. I think too many people have written off Japan but much of the bad news is already in the price - unlike many other currencies. Everyone talks about huge Japan gross debt (and it is massive) but the net debt is a reasonable 8 pct which compares very well to many of the G10. Your point on the large proportion of national debt held domestically is absolutely right.
FrankBrit
Frankfurt am Main, Germany
Posts: 73
14 years ago
Jan 21, 2010 20:13
In Thread: Don't Forget the Yen
@ said - ref. my previous I'm also talking about purchasing power for natural resources ... Japan has little of her own and now has a competing bidder on the block.
FrankBrit
Frankfurt am Main, Germany
Posts: 73
14 years ago
Jan 21, 2010 20:07
In Thread: Don't Forget the Yen
@ said ... Thanks - good to learn that - I'll look into it further. Germany AG deep in Japan, China and, of course, Russia, E.Europe and S.America too ... You've gotta take you're hat off to the Teutons to be sure bless 'em!
FrankBrit
Frankfurt am Main, Germany
Posts: 73
14 years ago
Jan 21, 2010 20:00
In Thread: Aussie Dressed up but where to Go?
Thanks for sharing your thoughts Ashraf - very kind - I'm always impressed how you get involved with the forum and show great patience too. I think EW does have some value but one can't be dogmatic about it - just keep it as (yet) another factor to consider. AUD/JPY on the weeklies looks stretched but doesn't look as though it's quite turned yet - I'm wondering if there's potential for a H&S sometime mid/end Feb on the dailies (possible LS and H partly formed now ...?) ... One more thing to monitor ...
FrankBrit
Frankfurt am Main, Germany
Posts: 73
14 years ago
Jan 21, 2010 19:43
In Thread: Don't Forget the Yen
@ said - ref. EUR/JPY maybe our friends in Nippon will now buy some more Euro products ... As well as foreign assets of all kinds. Afterall, they've got China to compete with now ...
FrankBrit
Frankfurt am Main, Germany
Posts: 73
14 years ago
Jan 21, 2010 19:37
In Thread: Don't Forget the Yen
Hi Pipped Off,

I'm not so negative overall on the USD even though I've been backing the Yen for some time. I think we may be in for one more sustained strengthening bout from JPY with USD playing second fiddle but still pretty strong. When the Yen has exhausted itself maybe USD will take over depending on global recovery news. Ashraf mentioned this alternating USD and JPY strength in an article a while back.
Report Reply
12345678