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Posts by "frankbrit"

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80 Posts Total by "frankbrit":
73 Posts by member
FrankBrit
(Frankfurt am Main, Germany)
7 Posts by Anonymous "frankbrit":
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FrankBrit
Germany
Posted Anonymously
14 years ago
Jan 21, 2010 19:27
In Thread: Aussie Dressed up but where to Go?
Dear Ashraf,

AUD/JPY - is this the start of the fifth wave on the monthlies? What kind of price level might it finish at in your view? Will this coincide with the next big downward move on the stockmarkets a la 2008?

Big questions I know, but always interested to hear your thoughts as IMO you have a very interesting broad holistic approach to your analysis.

Thanks for your generosity and very best regards.
FrankBrit
Frankfurt am Main, Germany
Posts: 73
14 years ago
Jan 21, 2010 19:15
In Thread: Don't Forget the Yen
Hello All, USD/JPY chuntering along a tad too quickly for my taste - I'd prefer a steady drop so as to calm the interventionists in Japan - weeklies looking impressive with a small gap down. Any ideas on the likely effectiveness of a) jawboning by Japan b) unilateral intervention ...? And at what price levels? Will Japan get any meaningful support from the wider world or just (green) tea and sympathy?
FrankBrit
Frankfurt am Main, Germany
Posts: 73
14 years ago
Jan 18, 2010 11:48
In Thread: Don't Forget the Yen
USD/JPY almost hit the end last week target of 90.50 (reaching 90.591). Note a daily and weekly gap down on USD/JPY echoed even more strongly in EUR/JPY.
FrankBrit
Frankfurt am Main, Germany
Posts: 73
14 years ago
Jan 12, 2010 18:45
In Thread: Don't Forget the Yen
U/J HS follow through almost complete to 90.50. Will be interesting to see where it finishes the day and week as this will set the tone going forward. Personally, I hope the drop slows a bit as otherwise the BoJ will start to get nervous - my impression is that they're not against it strengthening per se - just against it strengthening too fast ...
FrankBrit
Frankfurt am Main, Germany
Posts: 73
14 years ago
Jan 12, 2010 16:23
In Thread: Don't Forget the Yen
@ chloetbull,

All the quick tempo stuff clutters and imbalances my judgement so personally I stay away from it. But it's said that, unlike men, women can do more than one thing at a time. Good luck.
FrankBrit
Frankfurt am Main, Germany
Posts: 73
14 years ago
Jan 12, 2010 15:59
In Thread: Don't Forget the Yen
@ chloethebull,

I think your best bet for following Ashraf regularly is to keep him open on his Twitter site. I'm sure he's updating there. I don't follow it as I try to keep my mind on the bigger picture and operate at a slower tempo which I find suits my mindset better - I have a life to live and a job to do afterall!
FrankBrit
Frankfurt am Main, Germany
Posts: 73
14 years ago
Jan 12, 2010 12:22
In Thread: Don't Forget the Yen
Is there a possible HS follow through playing out on U/J - which if correct would mean a eventual shortish term (this week I guess) target c. 90.50. This afternoon will be interesting one way or the other with the US open.
FrankBrit
Frankfurt am Main, Germany
Posts: 73
14 years ago
Jan 11, 2010 22:17
In Thread: Euro's Third Down Leg
@ Pipped Off,

You may very well be right about a JPY sell-off in Asia - I don't know. My time frame is really based on days/weeks.

The must read and entertaining "Extraordinary Popular Delusions and the Madness of Crowds" (written more than a century ago) is being relived today and there are plenty of suitable precedents for Cramer and his like there ...
FrankBrit
Frankfurt am Main, Germany
Posts: 73
14 years ago
Jan 11, 2010 22:03
In Thread: Euro's Third Down Leg
@ Pipped Off.

What do you think? Cramer (ex-GS) given the nod by his old pals there to squeeze the punters one more time ...? After the last couple of years one hopes people have become more circumspect about all these cronies. I guess we'll see just how much more froth can the market take ...
FrankBrit
Frankfurt am Main, Germany
Posts: 73
14 years ago
Jan 11, 2010 21:36
In Thread: Don't Forget the Yen
Hello @ said,

Not sure I follow your point exactly but I think my answer is "No". I don't really believe that markets are efficient (especially when they aren't left to themselves like today ...). Overreactions followed by overcompensation to the reactions and so on pertutuum mobile ad nauseam ... that creates opportunities of course ... Hope this answers your question somewhat without writing a tome.

My six-pence worth comment on EUR/USD (which I don't really follow as I said before) is from a quick look at basic technicals from which it seems that the present move could run a little further before the next real downward move by the USD. I may be wrong ... (and BTW I do believe overall the USD has further to strengthen).

P.S. I'm looking at charts 4 hr and longer and not playing the v.short term at present.
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