EURUSD 1.1851 |
USDJPY 111.52 |
GBPUSD 1.3772 |
AUDUSD 0.7485 |
USDCAD 1.2406 |
GBPJPY 153.59 |
EURJPY 132.15 |
AUDJPY 83.48 |
CADJPY 89.86 |
Silver 26.23 |
Gold, USD, Bonds Intermarket Trading التداول الإنترماركت
إستعمال تحليل الإنترماركت و التحليل الفني الكلاسيكي لتداول الذهب و الناسداك و السندات. شاهد هنا
Using intermarket technicals analysis to trade XAUUSD Nasdaq100 and Bonds. Watch here.
Dax 200 DMA Deviation
You remember we went short Dax40 in late March based on the 13% 200 DMA extension, which gave us at least a 500-pt gain.
View Hot-Chart..
I think your best bet for following Ashraf regularly is to keep him open on his Twitter site. I'm sure he's updating there. I don't follow it as I try to keep my mind on the bigger picture and operate at a slower tempo which I find suits my mindset better - I have a life to live and a job to do afterall!
You may very well be right about a JPY sell-off in Asia - I don't know. My time frame is really based on days/weeks.
The must read and entertaining "Extraordinary Popular Delusions and the Madness of Crowds" (written more than a century ago) is being relived today and there are plenty of suitable precedents for Cramer and his like there ...
What do you think? Cramer (ex-GS) given the nod by his old pals there to squeeze the punters one more time ...? After the last couple of years one hopes people have become more circumspect about all these cronies. I guess we'll see just how much more froth can the market take ...
Not sure I follow your point exactly but I think my answer is "No". I don't really believe that markets are efficient (especially when they aren't left to themselves like today ...). Overreactions followed by overcompensation to the reactions and so on pertutuum mobile ad nauseam ... that creates opportunities of course ... Hope this answers your question somewhat without writing a tome.
My six-pence worth comment on EUR/USD (which I don't really follow as I said before) is from a quick look at basic technicals from which it seems that the present move could run a little further before the next real downward move by the USD. I may be wrong ... (and BTW I do believe overall the USD has further to strengthen).
P.S. I'm looking at charts 4 hr and longer and not playing the v.short term at present.
I agree but remember Keynes's ' the market can stay irrational for longer than one can stay solvent."
Fundamentally, actually, the Euro (read Germany) and U.K. have plenty of problems. Too obvious to have to explain with U.K. but German workers' subsidy now unwound, ship finance exposure, overcapaicty issues (1 in 7 Germans is employed in the auto industry), etc ...
Noted a couple of weeks ago JPM talking up the course of the Euro stockmarkets over 2010. Who knows? Certainly not JPM (only slightly less incredible than "Messrs Incredible" GS IMO). We'll find out in due time ...
"Reading the tea leaves" - that's the reason I like this site above others ... Ashraf's holistic approach and the fact that he bothers himself and gets involved ... which keeps things stimulating.
Gotta go for the mo ...
About gold. I read the following in the weekend's FT. Needless to say the ramifications are quite interesting macroeconomically: "Philip Klapwijk of GFMS .... took the prize for most accurate forecaster for both gold and silver prices in the 2009 LMBA survey. ... (his) predictions for 2010 are for gold to range between USD1340 and USD990 with an average of USD1172.
One thing I did note however is Goldman's talking a very low number (-25K?) just before the NFP was released. IMO they are one crowd whose advice it is better to ignore as it seems that they drop these stories just to squeeze that last drops out of punters - either that or they're just plain stupid (which I doubt so I take teh cynical view on GS and some others).
No doubt, NFP and the follow through on Monday will be key on USD/JPY. I'm only following dailies/weeklies as cash at present.
Worth noting Ashraf's recent IMT regarding big increase in JPY shorts relative to 22 Dec.
My feeling is that subject to NFP and follow through we may get a bounce (even as high as 95). The size of this bounce will be determined by the reaction to NFP (and may not even reach 94). But then a drop will follow to perhaps 89/90 range over the next couple of weeks (sticking my neck out ... :-) maybe further).
Just out of interest, looking at the dailies/weeklies - there is potential (at time of writing 93.19) for a gap down doji or spinning top (daily) and (on the weekly) a doji or even, if weekly close below 92.95, a gap down doji or spinning top. Other technicals may be reaching their peak soon too. Anyhow, the day and week are not yet over so plenty of time for this to change - frankly more evidence is still needed for me to feel more comfortable about the direction.
All the best with the trading.