EURUSD 1.1851 |
USDJPY 111.52 |
GBPUSD 1.3772 |
AUDUSD 0.7485 |
USDCAD 1.2406 |
GBPJPY 153.59 |
EURJPY 132.15 |
AUDJPY 83.48 |
CADJPY 89.86 |
Silver 26.23 |
How to improve your decision--makingh between Nasdaq100 and SPX by watching technicals in bond yields - Details in video description.
Bitcoin versus Miners Performance
As many of you know 2023 was kind to members of our WhatsApp Broadcast Group who snapped up shares in bitcoin miners, while 2024 has so far been more superior to Bitcoin than most of the miners...
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I agree but remember Keynes's ' the market can stay irrational for longer than one can stay solvent."
Fundamentally, actually, the Euro (read Germany) and U.K. have plenty of problems. Too obvious to have to explain with U.K. but German workers' subsidy now unwound, ship finance exposure, overcapaicty issues (1 in 7 Germans is employed in the auto industry), etc ...
Noted a couple of weeks ago JPM talking up the course of the Euro stockmarkets over 2010. Who knows? Certainly not JPM (only slightly less incredible than "Messrs Incredible" GS IMO). We'll find out in due time ...
"Reading the tea leaves" - that's the reason I like this site above others ... Ashraf's holistic approach and the fact that he bothers himself and gets involved ... which keeps things stimulating.
Gotta go for the mo ...
About gold. I read the following in the weekend's FT. Needless to say the ramifications are quite interesting macroeconomically: "Philip Klapwijk of GFMS .... took the prize for most accurate forecaster for both gold and silver prices in the 2009 LMBA survey. ... (his) predictions for 2010 are for gold to range between USD1340 and USD990 with an average of USD1172.
One thing I did note however is Goldman's talking a very low number (-25K?) just before the NFP was released. IMO they are one crowd whose advice it is better to ignore as it seems that they drop these stories just to squeeze that last drops out of punters - either that or they're just plain stupid (which I doubt so I take teh cynical view on GS and some others).
No doubt, NFP and the follow through on Monday will be key on USD/JPY. I'm only following dailies/weeklies as cash at present.
Worth noting Ashraf's recent IMT regarding big increase in JPY shorts relative to 22 Dec.
My feeling is that subject to NFP and follow through we may get a bounce (even as high as 95). The size of this bounce will be determined by the reaction to NFP (and may not even reach 94). But then a drop will follow to perhaps 89/90 range over the next couple of weeks (sticking my neck out ... :-) maybe further).
Just out of interest, looking at the dailies/weeklies - there is potential (at time of writing 93.19) for a gap down doji or spinning top (daily) and (on the weekly) a doji or even, if weekly close below 92.95, a gap down doji or spinning top. Other technicals may be reaching their peak soon too. Anyhow, the day and week are not yet over so plenty of time for this to change - frankly more evidence is still needed for me to feel more comfortable about the direction.
All the best with the trading.
Very interesting to read your sentiments on the mid/longer term outlook and thanks for taking the time to put them down.
Re. JPY - I don't think the Fin Min's comments were any big surprise and the reaction was partly the market looking for an excuse to take the current move further ("baked in" as you say). There aren't too many governments praying that their currency strengthens in the current economic climate - so what else was the Fin Min going to say?
I'm not in the short term trading these days as too busy at work and one needs to have the right frame of mind to keep the discipline. Good luck though and well done on the last ride.
Your last para. The stock market rally since March has developed into an impressive and extended rising wedge and the RSI is clearly diverging bearishly and volume and momentum have been falling steadily so I don't think any observer would be surprised at a sell off - but these things have a habit of running longer than we think before the inevitable happens.
After the present major USD/JPY up move completes where do you feel that the down move will finish? Talking daily/weekly charts ... Look forwrd to hearing your thoughts on that in the morning - it's 0100 hrs here!
BTW - I'd be interested to hear what Ashraf thinks about which currency is likely to fare best in the event of a marked stockmarket drop (USD, or JPY, or alternating - or some other currency ...?).
Nite All.
What are your thoughts on where a USD/JPY pullback will finish (when it starts). Also your thoughts on EUR/JPY would be interesting ... next major move up or down?
Some advice please if you have time ... I'm currently holding quite a bit of JPY as cash. As we know JPY has been taking a pasting for the last few weeks. Is a pullback likely and when do you think. Should I switch currency and to what and at what price? Yours confusedly.