EURUSD 1.1851 |
USDJPY 111.52 |
GBPUSD 1.3772 |
AUDUSD 0.7485 |
USDCAD 1.2406 |
GBPJPY 153.59 |
EURJPY 132.15 |
AUDJPY 83.48 |
CADJPY 89.86 |
Silver 26.23 |
كيف تنخفض نسبة التضخم في بيتكوين تحت نسبة تضخم الذهب و ما يعني "صلابة" بيتكوين كعملة او إرادة؟
Bitcoin versus Miners Performance
As many of you know 2023 was kind to members of our WhatsApp Broadcast Group who snapped up shares in bitcoin miners, while 2024 has so far been more superior to Bitcoin than most of the miners...
View Hot-Chart..
Total costs up to the loading of the crude oils for export, including Saudi Aramco's administrative costs, piping and terminalling, are now said to average about $2.80/b, up from less than $2.50/b in 1993. Costs were reduced as a result of reorganisation and cost-cutting measures (see background in Vol. 61, OMT No. 14)
http://goliath.ecnext.com/coms2/gi_0199-4763932/SAUDI-ARABIA-Producing-Oil-Costs.html
The official numbers you get is bollocks. If it was true that we needed 60 dollar to "break even" then the oil prize would be much much higher.
Remember that prize of oil was regulated before, now it is not. Speculators market, totally!!!!
Where does the money go? Well, there are allot of people out there, earning money of not doing "fuck all", so if that is included in the cost of oil production.... then it might be 10 times as high as my numbers....
Look at 60 minutes, an interview with the richest oil-sheik in Saudi, he said he don't care so much about the oil prize as long as it was over 2,5 dollar. Saudi have 1/5 of all the oil resources in the world.
The cost of a wellhead in Saudi:http://www.encyclopedia.com/doc/1G1-57398434.html
I don't understand were this 60 dollar number of getting even comes in.... It seems redicilous high!
Opec is one of the biggest "Mafioso" in the world. They manipulate what they want.
However, it was speculaters with enormous cash-flow that "kicked" the prize so high last Year, July.
The prize is heading lower, but I am sure that in the future we will see the same redicolous prize again...
http://www.nwotruth.com/60-minutes-did-speculation-fuel-oil-price-swings/
I work as an field Engineer in Norway (oil.business). After having checked some "break-even" prizes on internet I am shocked, it can't be true... So high! And the media gives a big variations in this estimate.. I think it is quite bullshit. I remember in 1998, for Saudi Arabia it costed them 2-2,5 dollar to produce 1 barrel and at the same time the cost was 10 dollar in Norway.
These prize predictions must be manipulated.
Qin, 60 dollar to break even? Come on....
It shows that there is allot of cost "baked" into these estimates. It is all rubbish. I don't beleive half of it. It must be manipulated! Oil companies are making money no matter how the the oil prize is. It is the service-sector that get hammered everytime..... Low prize contracts. Same same every fucking crisis...
Asad,
yes, I see 50 dollar sooner or later. 150 dollar last year is not a benchmark, that prize was peaking cause of speculation, 25 dollar gain in one day (look at 60 minutes).
If we see 150 dollar again, then we will for sure have another crisis....
This is why, if it goes to 50 dollar, I am looking for a short USD/NOK. I think 60 dollar will go fast....
Ashraf?
Norway has a way better future than UK, GBP will loose more steam against NOK in the future. But right now, mid-term, the NOK is such a small currency, risk aversion is working against it, so is oil. I would be carefull shorting GBP/NOK now.... Very long term I see GBP/NOK at around 9,2...
Ashraf, Qin,
VIX raised to 30%, people are scared now. NOK is weakening, oil dropping, stimulus packages running out and Dr. Dooms W bottom is in the news. I think dollar will have a short-lived rally but I am sure to pay attention to the DX and falling stocks through September October.However, the USD/NOK is so unpredictable now... Ashraf, I am following your predictions of USD/CAD, it give me some idea of the NOK. Mid-term, Where do you see oil Ashraf? Below 50?
I would like to short JPY/NOK. Qin, give me an idea of were you see a good entry for this pair? Not before next year? hmm.... for the future this pair can give an incredible gain in your portefolio (as you mentioned before).
be carefull with shoting USD/NOK now, oil is sliding and the VIX is climbing and so is DX.
September and October are bad for NOK. You might see SUD/NOK at 6,50 before you know it...
Good luck.
I have been bearish for awhile and I am still. No point to think that the track we are in now will be the same in the future. I fucked up my trades (lost all my cash) as a begineer last year, even though I was one of the people predicting the finance crisis (more of this in another letter).
Anyway, I have come down on earth now, thinking, we are not going ultimate bearish but there are allot of shit to come.....
the thing is, we are here to get some good ideas, from eachothers. ( I cannot trade anymore, cause it went totally to my brain, I am on sick-leave now too much went the wrong way, I didnt know what I was doing in the end....)
But I am here to learn from my mistakes. I did all the wrong things in the beginning. I ordered Ashraf book for 2 weeks ago, but still not here.
Anyway, I hope all here can learn from eachother and Ashraf. He is not 100%. But I think he is very close to 99%!!!!!
And that should be enugh.....
;-)
On the other way, Qin (jvla svenske).... lol
I think Qin is also to extreme in his predictions. Too much, and also too agressive against Ashraf.
Qin, you got the brain, use it! Ashraf have made this site for us, he don't need to.
He give his predictions and I wish he would hold my hand last year, cause I lost so much money!!! (Where were you Ashraf?)
Anyway, I am on different forums and I see that now it is a big fight between bulls an bears... It shows to me that the uncertainity is at a very high!
To all of you, give your respect to mr Ashraf, he is here for us..
(And also, Ashraf, give some slack, give us some pivot points and good trades..... come.... I know you want! ;-).....
You are very extreme in your predictions, I think you should relax a little. Oil is going down more now, cause it have been a speculative commodity. It might go down to 40-50 dollar or so.
But your predictions is based upon that the whole world is gonna stop using oil next year......
This is rubbish! Come on...
I understand your beleif in future technology, but you need to know how many investors is in this commodity.
The reason why you and Qin is so big enemies is because you both are so extreme in your way of thinking.
The dollar is going down. Right! But the oil, also going down.... and then it will hopefully have a sustainable prize........ Forget about the electric cars... come, these things take time. An what about planes? What about heating? What aout big Bargo ships? or what about..... There are allot of things you should think more about before you go ultimately short on the oil.
Oil prizes now are too high compared to the economics, but.... come on... It will go down to maybe 40 dollar, still it is more than afordale to produce for most Oil companies.
The world will not go to helll, but almost. We will have a traders Market!!!! Fully! There will be lood shed. (Not mine, cause I already lost).
Good luck Spec