Posts by "ptaczek"

Latest BoE inflation report is dovish!

LONDON, May 12 (IFR)- Cable has slumped by over three-quarters-of-a-cent to a low of 1.4900 on the back of a dovish quarterly BoE Inflation Report. The BoE sees annualized UK CPI under 2.0% in two years if interest rates are held constant ). Annualized CPI is currently running at 3.4%. Bank Rate has been held at 0.5% since it was cut to that level in March 2009. The BoE IR also says that downside risks to economic growth in the near term have increased and that the pace of recovery remains uncertain (BoE website/Reuters).

I honestly don't know rrose. EW never worked for me. In fact almost any technical analysis never worked for me. That's why Im using simple trend lines as a support tool (a kind of reminders) and fundamentals as the basis for my trading. I tend to simplicity because Im very very lazy :)
If the latest leg up on the Euro is because of EW counting or because Geithner comments or because of some rumor buying ... i simply don't know. If I look at the EuroZone cacophony I simply can't go long :)
Absolutely no offense, we are different people with different views and different reasons for going long or short. If you don't mind, try to put up some chart with your EW view. Im always curious and open for new inspiration.

@sydneyjames: in very easy terms:

CDS: Credit Default Swap. You can look at it as a price of insurance of a certain amount of a debt (a government bond for example). The higher the CDS the higher the perception of a potential default (bankruptcy, crash, screwing up) of the entity selling the debt (the government for example).

Now, regarding bonds, the yield of the bond is similar. Investors want higher yield on a more risky debt (which makes sense: if you're going to give someone irresponsible a money for a piece of paper [a bond], then you want back much more in comparsion to giving money to someone responsible, right?)
Now, the spread (difference) between the yield of German 10yr bund (relatively stable with low risk) and the Greece Government 10yr bond (relatively unstable and risky right now) tells you, how bad is the situation of Greece :) and how screwed the EURo could be.

@lalobertone: I have no idea :) It could (and probably will be) Greece. Im not sure therefore Im not adding any new entries to my short position and Im waiting to see.

@rrose: Im building new short position on eurusd after I took profits on my previous short on friday. From my point of view it's the best to get out of the long NOW :)

@redart: a blasphemy? :) I just wanted to understand why you do prefer currency futures over forex. There is a considerable drawback in futures for me: I can't get out of a trade when the exchange is closed. But I can if Im trading eurusd forex. So personally I'd use futures for swing trading and forex for daytrading :) But... it's me, not you :)