USD continues keeping low profile this week but it should change today and tomorrow as there is more US data scheduled. In my opinion all depends on how the market decide if the data will be positive. Positive US data should be USD positive, right? But it can be also perceived as a risk catalyst and the dollar will be dumped in exchange for riskier assets. It's not clear to me and Im looking forward to hear from Ashraf or simply wait and see :)
hm, this week it's up to USD. There are no GBP news except Nationwide Consumer Confidence later today, but we have some strong USD data in the pipeline today and tomorrow which will move the USD. Today's Bernanke's testimony can provide some USD boost as it was in the past months. But I think it will be again the guessing game whether it's more risk-on or more interest rates hike speculation if the US data will be positive. Maybe Ashraf can shed some light into this :) So far the Yen pairs suggest more risk-on.
Tnx for the moral support guys :) Im gonna hold it because the outlook on UK is still negative. But i'd like to hedge it somewhere to limit the inevitable drawdown. Creativity first, panic afterwards ;)
@Karan: my guess is simple: risk is on. GBP is a higher yielding currency against USD and JPY. Look at JPY pairs also. Anyway, it's not a pleasant feeling to have a bunch of GBP shorts and see it spiking up on endorphine intoxication caused by the agreement on a Greece bailout package :(
Sure, the ongoing excitement will lift euro in coming days. You don't have to have EZ fundamental problems solved. The market mass can be very irrational and the cheer over the bailout simply IS an endorphin booster.
@Callum: if there is a EUR30bn bailout package agreement then it is likely EURUSD will be lifted up in my opinion. The excitement over the bailout could be a major game changer. But while I can understand the EUR right now Im a bit confused by the GBP climbing...
@Ashraf: as we are just a few pips from the 1.5 mark, I can't force myself not to think of a possible trend reversal. How do you think would other major currencies act if the euro reverses?
@macrosam: there's more on the rumor about Greece aid in my newswire:
------8<-------
The dollar index has dumped nearly 1% on the heels of the Eurozone bailout news for Greece - more importantly, the rumored rescue is believed to be for all of the PIIGS with a facility to borrow at euribor 3-month +275 bps which saw Portugal CDS tighten more than Greece at one point.
------8<-------
If it will be a kind of all-the-piigs-rescuing-package, what are the possible implications for the eurozone as a whole? Will it solve the most fundamental problems which are in the differences of eurozone members? I mean, there is no way how can southern members compete with Germany and France in growth terms but they have to share common rules.
Try publishing this in the UK weekend papers: Traders bet BankofEngland will raise rates to 6.25% --highest since 1… https://t.co/GWXrTEAk4R(11 months ago)
Poor start to a slow market day as Ezone PMIs disappoint. Im still keeping an eye on the rare (-2%) USD-GOLD combo,… https://t.co/UyRzWsRbs7(11 months ago)
-5% YTD is not good, while -7% from the year highs can be tough. Gold traders have their eyes fixated on this for n… https://t.co/NV5UMKsfNo(11 months ago)
ما وراء هبوط الدولار مع الذهب و من منهما يتمكن الارتداد؟
موعدنا الآن في غرفة شركة إكس أم لجلسة الأسواق
https://t.co/Y7tD0RxCS2
@XM_COM (11 months ago)
Jobless claims > 300k before next FOMC meeting would be ideal for Fed to make up for any CPI upside surprise (11 months ago)
"Cook & Eat at Home" scheme may come next to defeat UK inflation... (11 months ago)
Earlier in the week gold selloff was attributed to smaller than exp China EASING. Metal is now holding v well despi… https://t.co/ZW9cmXTPWW(11 months ago)
إستعمال تحليل الإنترماركت والتحليل الفني الكلاسيكي لتداول الذهب و الناسداك و السندات. شاهد هنا
Using intermarket technicals analysis to trade XAUUSD Nasdaq100 and Bonds.Watch here.
Latest Hot-Chart - May 16
Dax 200 DMA Deviation
You remember we went short Dax40 in late March based on the 13% 200 DMA extension, which gave us at least a 500-pt gain.
View Hot-Chart..
Today's Bernanke's testimony can provide some USD boost as it was in the past months. But I think it will be again the guessing game whether it's more risk-on or more interest rates hike speculation if the US data will be positive. Maybe Ashraf can shed some light into this :) So far the Yen pairs suggest more risk-on.
@cantip: right now Im opinion-less on the bailout. I simply don't know how should I slice it and get something sensible from it.
Anyway, it's not a pleasant feeling to have a bunch of GBP shorts and see it spiking up on endorphine intoxication caused by the agreement on a Greece bailout package :(
tnx
------8<-------
The dollar index has dumped nearly 1% on the heels of the Eurozone bailout news for Greece - more importantly, the rumored rescue is believed to be for all of the PIIGS with a facility to borrow at euribor 3-month +275 bps which saw Portugal CDS tighten more than Greece at one point.
------8<-------
If it will be a kind of all-the-piigs-rescuing-package, what are the possible implications for the eurozone as a whole? Will it solve the most fundamental problems which are in the differences of eurozone members? I mean, there is no way how can southern members compete with Germany and France in growth terms but they have to share common rules.