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by Ashraf Laidi
Posted: Feb 22, 2010 5:00
Comments: 3119
Posted: Feb 22, 2010 5:00
Comments: 3119
Forum Topic:
Commodity FX (CAD AUD NZD NOK)
Discuss Commodity FX (CAD AUD NZD NOK)
So I have gone selling 2 lots of the NZD at 0.7990. I will get stopped out for one at 0.8046 and the other at 0.8140 and if not I hope to tp for one at 0.7950 and the other at 0.7830.
All I am doing is just looking out for big figures being hit first time in any counter almost blindly and placing my stops 50/140 pips away.
Has anyone looked at NZD/USD on a daily chart. It has had a strong rally up for almost a week. It is nearing the highs at 0.7980 levels. I am considering to short this, but not sure how the fundamentals would affect it.
Any suggestions....
Sir, DaveO, Gunjack, Chloe keep the banter going along with the trade ideas. it livens up the forum. For those peeps who are complaining - look at it this way. If the guys weren't posting, then there wouldn't be much posts for a very long time.
Chinese GDP, CPI, industrial production and retail sales for March will be released at 02:00 GMT but we warn that these figures often trickle out ahead of the scheduled time.
Media in Hong Kong said CPI will be between 5.3% and 5.4%, which is above the 5.2% consensus and 4.9% prior. It also suggests CHINA MAY HAVE MORE WORK TO DO THAN the 1-2 rate hikes priced in something that should weigh on CAD, AUD and NZD. Traders have been reluctant to act, until the rest of the figures are released.
Retail sales (exp: +16.3%) and IP (exp: +14.0%) are important but will be overshadowed by GDP (exp: 9.3%). Given the strong import and export trade data earlier this week, we strongly suspect the market is pricing a higher figure than the consensus.
Dont expect to see a lasting AUD rally even on a figure around 9.5%. Something close to 9.7%, however, would easily spark the 40 pip rally to drive AUD/USD to a fresh all-time high. At 0430 Japan also releases IP (exp: +0.4% m/m) but any misses will be blamed on the earthquake.
By AB - AshrafLaidi.com Staff
for CAD...downtrend still in effect....
short term...
as long as 9570/80 holds.... see it testing 9680/90 resistance.... clear break above 9690 could see further gains toward 9800 level....
below 9570... see it moving lower to 9480/9500 support...
for AUD...
weekly still positive so could see test above 1.0582 high.... but upside will likely be limited...
immediate support at 1.0428... break below that level could see test of 1.0300 level....
gl/gt