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by Ashraf Laidi
Posted: Feb 22, 2010 5:00
Comments: 1558
Posted: Feb 22, 2010 5:00
Comments: 1558
Forum Topic:
JPY
Discuss JPY
Ashraf
That info was very useful, I got my stop under 134.50. I wasn't sure if the pair was going to tank, with the release of the PPI data, I'm holding on
Thanks so much
What is your take on the Gbp/Jpy. Will the current levels hold (135.50 - 135.00) and move upwards or is it going to get dragged down
Thanks
YEN: Opened in early Europe around Y83.55 and Y120.93
-- MAS re-centering NEER upwards appeared to be the catalyst that
sparked the Asian market awake overnight, with strong Japanese fund
demand for yen emerging into the Tokyo fix adding to a move to risk
aversion as Asian equity markets moved into negative territory.
Euro-yen came under heavy sell pressure taking rate from Y121.20 to
Y120.19, the move dragging dollar-yen through its 200-dma level at
Y83.45. Break triggered stops, the added momentum triggering more
stops below Y83.30 before profit take demand emerged at Y83.25
to underpin (disparity for the low, Y83.27/20 the range). Euro-yen
recovery caught market short, the rush to cover provided the added
momentum to take the cross on to Y121.36, the move pulling dollar-yen
back to Y83.60. Dollar-yen broke back below Y83.45, extending lows to
Y83.11 while euro-yen eventually followed, breaking under Y120.19 to
Y119.70. Cross support seen at Y119.70, Y119.50/30. Dollar-yen
support Y83.00, Y82.75/70.
FX Bullets are updated every 4-5 mins and will be part of my Premium Service to be released soon
Ashraf
Another week, another above 7 magnitude aftershock, and another retreat in equities/commodities/risk-on FX. High-flying AUD approached its late Friday US-session high around $1.0580, supported by better than expected China trade data, but has since been turned back below $1.0550. Recall a similar development taking place in the middle of last week - 7.1 magnitude event and a tsunami warning followed by brisk profit-taking. As we saw then, limited impact on infrastructure and no further damage to nuclear power plants saw investors rushing back into Japan equities and other risky assets. Any escalation in JAPAN POLITICAL THEATER could add further pressure on the Yen - over the weekend, ruling DPJ party lost some 70 seats in local assembly elections in evidence of low approval for embattled PM Kan.
THREE FED SPEAKERS on deck; Chicago Fed President EVANS will speak on risk management, while FOMC Vice Chair YELLEN will continue to defend her dovish position in the face of rising commodity inflation. The topic for this more relevant 12:15pm ET address - "Commodity Prices, the Economic Outlook, and Monetary Policy" - could not be any more appropriate. We should note that prior to the post-earthquake retreat, crude oil extended its gains above $113.30 while silver nearly breached $42/oz mark. DUDLEY to also speak. Report of more LIVE FIRE by SYRIAN SECURITY forces targeting protesters overshadows speculation Libya government is willing to discuss a ceasefire with the rebels.
See CALENDAR for more DETAILS http://www.ashraflaidi.com/ economic-calendar/
By GG - AshrafLaidi.com staff
Japan’s current account surplus (Exp: ¥1.33 trillion) and the BOJ’s monthly report are the only notable events in the Asia-Pacific session.
The aftershock caused a 40-pip blip in USD/JPY as it fell to 84.60 and then rebounded back to 85. Keep a close eye on USD/JPY. Thursday’s decline was the first in two weeks and gives us a chance to gauge the market’s appetite to sell yen. The end of the week would typically offer an opportunity for further profit taking (USD/JPY declines) but fresh gains would point to an extended rally.
Ashraf