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by Ashraf Laidi
Posted: Feb 22, 2010 5:00
Comments: 1558
Posted: Feb 22, 2010 5:00
Comments: 1558
Forum Topic:
JPY
Discuss JPY
From MNI's FX Bullets
CHINA: The PBOC set the yuan central parity rate vs the dollar at
CNY6.5345 Tuesday, vs CNY6.5310 Monday and CNY6.5301 set Friday, which
was a record yuan high. At Tuesday's parity rate, the yuan was up 26.65%
from July 2005's move to a managed float (with reference to basket of
currencies). In front page commentary Tuesday, the official China
Securities Journal stated that the Chinese government is likely to speed
up the pace of yuan appreciation to tackle imported inflation.The PBOC
has raised banks' reserve requirement 10 times and benchmark interest
rates 4 times in the current economic cycle. "The exchange rate tool
could be at the forefront, given the (already) intensive use of reserve
requirement and interest rate adjustments. It would help maintain the
flexibility of monetary policy," the newspaper said.
More tradable ideas on @alaidiPremiumFX
Ashraf
From MNI FX Bullets
CHINA: A Chinese government economist has said that benchmark interest
rates could be raised twice more during the current quarter, and the
reserve requirement adjusted three more times, as deteriorating
inflationary conditions continue to undermine the benign official
forecasts from earlier in the year. Ba Shusong, an economist with the
Development Research Center, a ministry-level body, said in an opinion
piece that global uncertainties saw the government loosening policy in
March, but said that further tightening is now necessary.
Ashraf
From MNI FX Bullets
CHINA PRESS: China is likely to pilot a program this year which would
allow overseas companies to directly invest in yuan domestically, the
official China Securities Journal quoted Li Bo, a senior central bank
official, as saying. The People's Bank of China, the State
Administration of Foreign Exchange and the Ministry of Finance are
jointly working on trials for the policy, Li said.
Ashraf
DOLLAR-YEN: The pair is likely to trade with a softer tone today in
Asia following a decline in yields on Treasury notes. Yields on
Treasury's 10-year notes tumbled nine basis points to 3.41% on Friday
after data showed benign consumer inflation in March and slight decline
in five-year inflation expectations in Reuters/University of Michigan
Survey.
The market is waiting for U.S. economic data for implications
for the monetary policy. Data due this week are likely to show a pick-up
in housing starts to 535,000 in April from 479,000 in March, but a
decline in the Philadelphia Fed Survey's Index to 36.0 in April from
43.4 in the previous month.
The market will also watch for developments
in the sovereign debt problem in the euro-zone after Moody's Investors
slashed the debt rating for Ireland by two notches. The dollar is
likely to see some support at Y82.95, last week's low, while it is
expected to see resistance at Y83.74, the five-day moving average. The
rate moved from Y82.94, the lowest since March 31, to Y83.78 on Friday.
STubbs, i think it is very likely we will test below 134 in GBPJPY
Ashraf
MNI DOLLAR-YEN TECHS: Holds Close to 200-DMA
RES 4: Y86.05/37 2% MAE, 38.2% of Y101.44 decline, High 13 Aug 2010
RES 3: Y85.91 Highs 30 Aug & 16 & 17 Sep 2010
RES 2: Y85.53/75 High 6 April, 38.2% retracement of decline from Y94.97
RES 1: Y84.25/49 Tenkan line, Former high 15 Dec
LATEST PRICE: Y83.44
SUP 1: Y82.95 Low 14 April, 21-day moving average
SUP 2: Y82.45/73 Parameters of Ichimoku cloud, 55, 100-DMA
SUP 3: Y82.29 High 11 March
SUP 4: Y82.09 38.2% retracement of Mar/Apr recovery
COMMENTARY: Dollar-yen holds close to the 200-DMA of Y83.4e following
recent downturn in the daily studies, which remain weak. Further
support is grouped within Y82.45/73, which includes the parameters of
the Ichimoku cloud as well as the 55 & 100-DMAs. The 5 & 21-DMAs provide
initial resistance & support, at Y83.80. Y82.95.
Ashraf
All times are Eastern Time
12:55 04/14
DOLLAR-YEN: Lift to Y83.45 area comes as finmin Noda hits the wires to
reiterate that Japan will ask for continued G7 cooperation on
intervention, though suspect this probably means he hope for G7
forbearance should MOF decide further intervention is warranted. Either
way, dollar stalls around the 200d ma that had provided support on the
move lower and no surprise to hear of offers in this area.
12:51 04/14
JAPAN: Finmin Noda hitting some wires, says Japan will ask for continued
G7 cooperation in FX. Dollar-yen pops to Y83.45 on the remarks, up
slightly.
Ashraf