GBP

BoE Minutes "unwarranted pound drop" if further QE

cable below 1.51

djellal, yes I think I knew what you meant. The conversation was an opportunity to put out a warning to any peeps who are feeling overly secure in these tricky macro economics and markets. I identify you as "old school". None of us can take an intelligent guess at timing for the various disasters that undoubtably lie ahead, given politicians will continue to practice short termism. The entire silly game is supported by "confidence"---which can change quicker than we might like.

George, you have tremendous depth of knowledge and interest but often I struggle with the language. But who I am to critique you when my French language is truly appalling. I think the discussion could get out of hand so we have no time for our charts and our trading lol.

I would never use the two words "great" and "Greenspan" in the same sentence. I regard Greenspan and Brown as having considerable responsibility for the debt getting totally out of control. Bernanke has had the unenviable task of trying to avoid a global financial implosion. Add to that the european common currency experiment has proven a complete disaster causing much pain for many of its members.

Indeed I know that these levels are artifical. What I mean is that " simple investor or simple people" are confidents when they see this kind of level. They never buy stocks on the dip but only on the high. They ignore fundamentals that's why they are confident,they takes loan, they create little company, they create job... and take crisis directly on the face.

Thanks Dave for Mauldin reference which you posted last year and i began to research his thinking on the long supercycles brought on by debt. Mauldin references the work of Harvard's Rogoff and Reinhart and their book "This time is Different" which is also instructive to read (his talks are on youtube).
Another line of thought which may interest you is by Richard Heinberg in his book "end of growth". It talks of fundamental limits to growth caused by the diminishing return on energy (as measured by energy out/in) which is what has powered real GDP growth in the last 200 years. low real growth means stocks should trade much lower, or the dollar needs to devalue. The bankers will try to pump the system but its going to fail and yes one day we will wake up and the bond market would have reacted badly!