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by Ashraf Laidi
Posted: Feb 22, 2010 5:00
Comments: 3119
Posted: Feb 22, 2010 5:00
Comments: 3119
Forum Topic:
Commodity FX (CAD AUD NZD NOK)
Discuss Commodity FX (CAD AUD NZD NOK)
You may think this is conspiracy theory, but I'm going to tell you my thoughts. Canada does not want a strong loonie. They prefer a strong USDCAD pair. So who will not allow USDCAD to even get to 1.0295.
Answer: RBA. They are so intent on showcasing Aussie as the stellar currency in the world. They know if USDCAD catches a bid, AUDUSD will trade inversely and go down. The trading in USDCAD is very suspicious. other pairs were all over the board the past two trading days. Not USDCAD.
So the question going forward is: does the RBA have enough bullets to not only sell all other currencies against its own beloved AUD in order to impress the world with its currency, but do they have even additional bullets to continually sit on the offer of USDCAD in an attempt to contain any advance which would hurt their own overvakued, overstuffed and blatantly maniuplated currency.
And here we have Greece screaming and crying foul about speculators driving up the cost of their financing. But it's ok for the RBA to manipukate their own currency.
CIBC world markets notes that 2 yrs back when CAD was at these levels oil/commodities were way higher, so CAD seems to be getting way ahead of itself.
Guess the only rational thing for us canadians to do is to keep shopping across the border given that we are so far away from PPP, bring down canadian retail sales figures (we probably wont see that soon with the olympic spending), and then the market will respond!! Of course the big sharks in the mean time want to run through all the stops before reversing!!
Criticism in humble doses is good for everyone. rkkashmir's comments were too denigrating and consequently too distracting. This is a very difficult field to be good at - let - alone master. FX requires a lot of humility and I think it should be a requirement of participating in this forum.
By the way when will you be teaching in Vancouver? I might fly up to meet you.
Respectfully, "The NonProphet"
USDCAD has immediately been beaten over the head anytime it shows a bid today. Hopefully it is carving out a bottom. Many Weatherman screaming for parity, and it's trading like it.
Gonna work out the current open positions in commodity-backed currency pairs, then sticking with eur firstg, then gbp and gold