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by Ashraf Laidi
Posted: Mar 20, 2009 15:05
Comments: 54
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This thread was started in response to the Article:

Gauging the Turn in Dollar, Gold & Oil

The Fed's latest negative-dollar move is likely to last more than in previous occasions.
 
Rob
New York, United States
Posts: 305
16 years ago
Mar 25, 2009 20:39
Hi Ashraf,

I hope I didn't get your blood pressure up too high with my last comment. If you look back, you did in fact say "Frank, gold remains bullish at least into April" - as Frank did ask about gold. I thought that was an odd comment from you because I do read your site carefully and have read your targets on gold, which is why I reiterated what you said about the $1050 target, and you are always very specific and accurate. I trade spot gold and watch it's price change with other currency pairs on my platform. This must get mixed up in my mind with the other pairs, causing me to attempt to find similar relationships that I can find with currency pairs. Your knowledge and expertise has helped me with intermarket analysis with many things. Now I realize that gold's analysis is more long-term and not as easily tracked alongside equities, currencies, risk aversion/appetite, interest rates, central bank comments, etc..
If I could, I'd change my FOREX broker in a second, but as you know I'm in NY and can't participate with CMC Markets.
I'd gladly pay a subscriber fee if it is within my reach. Sorry to anyone who's upset for me mentioning that.
All the best to you Ashraf, and again, I hope I didn't get under your skin. Thanks for all your support!!!
Ashraf Laidi
London, UK
Posts: 0
16 years ago
Mar 25, 2009 19:46
ROB, LUCA: Please carefully read what I write. I told Frank I was bullish euro til April and NOT gold til April because I said everywhere on this site Im continuously bullish gold and next key target is at 1050. LUCA AND EVERYBODY: one cannot explain every single $15-20 move in gold every day and say the metal aint working as you or him or her expected it to. Step back and realize what ive been saying for 9 weeks that 890 was tested and held too many times and thats a great enough signal in a world muddied by too many forces. GOLD is NOT a penny stock that is expected to be moved at every whim. Lets raise the question on whether central banks are CAPPING gold ahead of the G20 meeting to prevent their currencies from appreciating (when dollar depreriates)... Now this is a lot of free information on this site....any suggestions for paid content???

Ashraf
Rob
New York, United States
Posted Anonymously
16 years ago
Mar 25, 2009 18:22
Hi Ashraf,

Hmmm, interesting comments by Luca. Do you think Gold will be considered if the world decides to break up the Dollar into different reserves? Also, in regards to your comment to Frank, why would you say bullish until April? Weren't you looking for Gold to hit $1050 or so around the end of Q2 or Q3? Are you saying it may peak into April, then dip and recover again? I'm also having a very difficult time tracking the intermarket relationship of gold. Any comments are always deeply appreciated. Thank you.
Luca
Lausanne, Switzerland
Posted Anonymously
16 years ago
Mar 25, 2009 17:15
Hi Ashraf.
Thought-provoking comments as usual. My long-term bullishness on gold notwithstanding, based on today's Geithner comments on the $ and yesterday's proposal by Bank of China's governor Zhou Xiaochuan to establish a currency "independent" of all countries, what do you make of Gold's inability to follow-up on last week's rally even as the $ has remained not much below last week's peaks? According to trading savvy, it is not a good sign when something that should rally does not rise in value. I am hard pressed to see anything else as "independent" as gold (and hence a new currency order would essentially replicate the mechanics of the Bretton-Woods system with some sort of peg/parity). One may of course invoke the increased risk appetite but - for instance today - I have seen gold actually recover in sync with stronger equities, so I'm hard pressed to see the latter as the key driver. Of course, even a short-term correction needn't impair the long-term fundamental merits of gold. What are your thoughts, please ? 1000 thanks in advance.
Luca
Ashraf Laidi
London, UK
Posts: 0
16 years ago
Mar 25, 2009 17:04
Frank, gold remains bullish at least into April.

Ced, I see 15-20% chance for euro to drop below 1.20 in the next 2 months. US is protecting the rhetoric regarding the dollar these days as a defensive strategy... talking heads who say china has raised its purchases of US treasuires over last 6 months were actually net selleres 3 months ago for first time in nearly a year...

Ashraf
Ced
London, UK
Posts: 12
16 years ago
Mar 25, 2009 11:36
Hi Ashraf,

Since ECB might cut rates soon and after that also might start with quantitative easing, and considering possible markets "sell in May" down trend, what do you predict for EURUSD end of May, June? Is it possible to go to 1.20, or even lower?
Frank
Canada
Posted Anonymously
16 years ago
Mar 25, 2009 0:39
Hi Ashraf

Will gold rize short term in one week or two weeks .. Why is gold so hard to predict short term ?

Cheers

Frank
Ashraf Laidi
London, UK
Posts: 0
16 years ago
Mar 24, 2009 20:36
ET, the yen is in bad shape nowadays. The carry trade was ALREADY developing for the past 10 days when dollar weakness intensified and people were getting out of lower yileding USD and JPY into everything else. Now markets may be ready to taek money off the table and so are the risk-seeking trades i.e. those that sold USD and JPY.

Ashraf
ET
Virginia, United States
Posted Anonymously
16 years ago
Mar 24, 2009 19:39
Ashraf,
Could the carry trade re-emerge? If so, in current conditions, how would the Yen be likely to perform against EUR, USD, etc ??
Many thanks for your thoughts.
Ashraf Laidi
London, UK
Posts: 0
16 years ago
Mar 24, 2009 17:29
ROB, I don't like EURJPY. EURUSD's failure to break above $1.3740 is not a good sign for EUR, even against JPY. Aussie still pulling ahead, even against JPY. if you beleive in CandleStick analysis, EURJPy daily looks bearish as the daily chart looks like a bearish hammer.. if markets push higher today it would be a great achievement for the bulls and maybe stable sign for EURJOY but you're better selling yen vs aussie, gbp and nzd.

FL, USDCAD can easily break below 1.22 especially if a positive end to NY session translates to gains in Asia. But be aware that the pair is very quick to rebound in any proift taking in equities (as we saw today briefly at 1.2293).

Ashraf