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Gauging the Turn in Dollar, Gold & Oil
The Fed's latest negative-dollar move is likely to last more than in previous occasions.
I hope I didn't get your blood pressure up too high with my last comment. If you look back, you did in fact say "Frank, gold remains bullish at least into April" - as Frank did ask about gold. I thought that was an odd comment from you because I do read your site carefully and have read your targets on gold, which is why I reiterated what you said about the $1050 target, and you are always very specific and accurate. I trade spot gold and watch it's price change with other currency pairs on my platform. This must get mixed up in my mind with the other pairs, causing me to attempt to find similar relationships that I can find with currency pairs. Your knowledge and expertise has helped me with intermarket analysis with many things. Now I realize that gold's analysis is more long-term and not as easily tracked alongside equities, currencies, risk aversion/appetite, interest rates, central bank comments, etc..
If I could, I'd change my FOREX broker in a second, but as you know I'm in NY and can't participate with CMC Markets.
I'd gladly pay a subscriber fee if it is within my reach. Sorry to anyone who's upset for me mentioning that.
All the best to you Ashraf, and again, I hope I didn't get under your skin. Thanks for all your support!!!
Ashraf
Hmmm, interesting comments by Luca. Do you think Gold will be considered if the world decides to break up the Dollar into different reserves? Also, in regards to your comment to Frank, why would you say bullish until April? Weren't you looking for Gold to hit $1050 or so around the end of Q2 or Q3? Are you saying it may peak into April, then dip and recover again? I'm also having a very difficult time tracking the intermarket relationship of gold. Any comments are always deeply appreciated. Thank you.
Thought-provoking comments as usual. My long-term bullishness on gold notwithstanding, based on today's Geithner comments on the $ and yesterday's proposal by Bank of China's governor Zhou Xiaochuan to establish a currency "independent" of all countries, what do you make of Gold's inability to follow-up on last week's rally even as the $ has remained not much below last week's peaks? According to trading savvy, it is not a good sign when something that should rally does not rise in value. I am hard pressed to see anything else as "independent" as gold (and hence a new currency order would essentially replicate the mechanics of the Bretton-Woods system with some sort of peg/parity). One may of course invoke the increased risk appetite but - for instance today - I have seen gold actually recover in sync with stronger equities, so I'm hard pressed to see the latter as the key driver. Of course, even a short-term correction needn't impair the long-term fundamental merits of gold. What are your thoughts, please ? 1000 thanks in advance.
Luca
Ced, I see 15-20% chance for euro to drop below 1.20 in the next 2 months. US is protecting the rhetoric regarding the dollar these days as a defensive strategy... talking heads who say china has raised its purchases of US treasuires over last 6 months were actually net selleres 3 months ago for first time in nearly a year...
Ashraf
Since ECB might cut rates soon and after that also might start with quantitative easing, and considering possible markets "sell in May" down trend, what do you predict for EURUSD end of May, June? Is it possible to go to 1.20, or even lower?
Will gold rize short term in one week or two weeks .. Why is gold so hard to predict short term ?
Cheers
Frank
Ashraf
Could the carry trade re-emerge? If so, in current conditions, how would the Yen be likely to perform against EUR, USD, etc ??
Many thanks for your thoughts.
FL, USDCAD can easily break below 1.22 especially if a positive end to NY session translates to gains in Asia. But be aware that the pair is very quick to rebound in any proift taking in equities (as we saw today briefly at 1.2293).
Ashraf