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by Ashraf Laidi
Posted: Jul 2, 2009 13:15
Comments: 108
View Hot-Chart
This thread was started in response to the Hot-Chart:

NZDUSD Eyes Sub-0.63

 
Forexwolf
Auckland, New Zealand
Posts: 39
13 years ago
Jul 14, 2009 19:32
Hi Ashraf, what do you have on the EURUSD? Seems to me there was a "raod-block" at 1.401 level. I was amazed that the equity results and US PPI & Retail sales did not ake it higher? Any thoughts?
Ashraf Laidi
London, UK
Posts: 0
13 years ago
Jul 14, 2009 18:01
Glory, Morgan Frank,

Aussie 0.7920 trend line held up as per previous post. NZDUSD seems a good short at these levels for another go at 0.62. AUDUSD long term buy is noy advised until we near 0.7780s. but if your margin cusion is large enough then sure, go ahead.


Ashraf
Frank
Vancouver, Canada
Posts: 32
13 years ago
Jul 14, 2009 17:27
Hi Ashraf

Think it's time to buy Aussie for a long time hold like 6 - 12 months ?

Thanks

Frank
J. Morgan
United States
Posted Anonymously
13 years ago
Jul 14, 2009 16:43
Ashraf,

The Kiwi long was nice all the way to your 0.6350 target!

However, now that the NZDUSD Longs appear toppy, I am wondering if we'll ever see the Kiwi dollar go sub 0.63. I have read your comments about Kiwi being a beneficiary of the yield differential, but can't help wonder how long the Kiwi will be resilient at such lofty levels.

Jay.
Ashraf Laidi
London, UK
Posts: 0
13 years ago
Jul 14, 2009 14:28
Aussie trend line resistance at 0.7920 since June 30 high.

Ashraf
glory
Singapore, Singapore
Posts: 10
13 years ago
Jul 14, 2009 13:54
Is there more upside for AUDUSD? Short at 0.7880
Ashraf Laidi
London, UK
Posts: 0
13 years ago
Jul 13, 2009 17:38
raulin, if there is an explanation it is the yield differential. Yes, the cross did fall during the last leg of the equity rally, which i would deem a result of an overall broad rally in Kiwi during the period. There were also stories circulating about a looming RBA rate cut by some influential website.

Morgan, depends from where you sold and at what stage of the equity selloff you started. A day such as today woudl look for very shortterm longs in AUDUSD and NZDUSD targetting 0.7840s abd 0.6330s before starting new shorts towards 0.7890s and 0.6220s in AUD and NZD.

Ashraf
J. Morgan
United States
Posted Anonymously
13 years ago
Jul 13, 2009 13:55
Hello Ashraf,

Given your sell-bias for NZDJPY and NZDUSD, I am curious what kind of target should one set for these on the downside? 100 pips or more from here?

Thanks so much,

Jay.
raulin
london, UK
Posts: 65
13 years ago
Jul 13, 2009 13:21
Ashraf. I think it is more complicated than interest rate differential. Aussie only rallied vs kiwi for the month of April since then it has been falling, clearly we have equity rally March till end June, the months of March April May kiwi has been stronger relatively
Ashraf Laidi
London, UK
Posts: 0
13 years ago
Jul 13, 2009 12:18
raulin, this is the essence of the carry trade and its unwinding, which i write a full chapter (chap 5) in my book. Being the higher yielder, Aussie does best in rising equities and does worst in falling appetite. Thus, short NZDUSD vs USD and JPY while buy NZD vs AUD.

Ashraf