Forum > View Topic (Hot-Chart)
by Ashraf Laidi
Posted: Jul 2, 2009 13:15
Comments: 108
View Hot-Chart
This thread was started in response to the Hot-Chart:

NZDUSD Eyes Sub-0.63

 
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speculator
Posted Anonymously
15 years ago
Jul 9, 2009 0:25
there was an idiot trader that posted a video of himself on market oracle forecasting very near term parity with cadusd only 2 weeks ago. he argued that the sharp rise in cad would continueg. i did give him an A for effort as he did really try to convince his audience by screaming to go long cad
Ashraf Laidi
London, UK
Posts: 0
15 years ago
Jul 9, 2009 0:00
Qin, i dont understand. I already said many times over past 2 weeks to CUT your CAD longs and go OTHER WAY before they deteriorate further and yet you did not do it. But now you are asking me about the Aussie. Neither Ego nor faith (prayers) have a place in this market. aussie remains a decent sell at these levels or 1% higher for quick 100 pips

Ashraf
Qin
Sweden
Posted Anonymously
15 years ago
Jul 8, 2009 22:39
Hey, Ashraf
Thank you for your advice and appreciate that speak so frankly to me.

It is a shame that I was long CAD last month and still hold it by paying the swap everyday.....I am rethinking about my stupid strategy on that trading....

My account is not so large, it is only about 150k and my positions only leverage 3 times now......I will take a chance to hedge my account first. Because I am going to take vacation next week....

Please give me a entry point to short AUD.....if you don't mind......

Best regards
Qin
Ashraf Laidi
London, UK
Posts: 0
15 years ago
Jul 8, 2009 22:14
Morgan, it took a while for kiwi to drop but it did drop didnt it? reason it outperformed aussie is that it is lower yielding than teh aussie, thus in risk aversion higher yielder usually underperforms. GBP still behaves as a high yielder.

Ashraf
J. Morgan
United States
Posted Anonymously
15 years ago
Jul 8, 2009 21:51
Thank you, Ashraf. I assumed you had meant 1.2380 and appreciate the clarification.

I read in the NZDUSD posting from you and others that shorting the NZDUSD for end of this week was a good idea. Following today's mayhem, is there a possibility we'll see some losses in the NZDUSD cross? It seems the NZDUSD has been very resilient and not dropping. What gives, can you explain......if you don't mind?

Regards,

Jay.
Ashraf Laidi
London, UK
Posts: 0
15 years ago
Jul 8, 2009 21:38
morgan, sorry that was a typo supposed to read 1.2380 and not 1.8380 on AUDNZD. we're 40 pips away now.

Qin, just out of curiosity: are you strictly playing the long AUD trade and long CAD trade? this market should be taken advantage in BOTH WAYS and past 3 days were great for that--assuming one has enough funds to sustain himself during meaningless noise (movements). going long aussie vs usd or jpy right now WILL DEPEND ON YOUR POSITION, SIZE, AND MARGIN. i WOULD start with modest long Aussie position right now that WOULD NOT wipe out my account in the event that risk aversion drags aussie down by 200 pips. such positions may not turn in the money until 2 or 3 days but at least youd be gaining from the yield differential and aussie's potential to rebound. but you must still STILL RECOGNIZE THAT THE IMPULSIVE DIRECTION FOR THE MARKET REMAINS THAT OF RISK AVERSION I.E. SHORT AUSSIE

Ashraf
Qin
Jonkoping, Sweden
Posts: 492
15 years ago
Jul 8, 2009 18:54
Hey, Ashraf
As you mentioned, is this the time to long AUD/YEN and AUD/USD??? Or we should wait for a while...??

Best regards
Qin
Ashraf Laidi
London, UK
Posts: 0
15 years ago
Jul 8, 2009 18:06
Morgan, glad you took advantage of it, not many people are aware of that pair and its opportunities. ill be conservative and call 1.8380. It's been a great day for the risk aversion trade today.

Ashraf
J. Morgan
United States
Posted Anonymously
15 years ago
Jul 8, 2009 17:49
Hi Ashraf,

Your comments are so insightful on timing the big moves, thanks. I read your Twitter comments about AUDNZD heading down to 1.2330. Looks like it is breaking down this afternoon. Are you hopign 1.2330 will be reached this week or next week?

Thanks,

Jay.
Ashraf Laidi
London, UK
Posts: 0
15 years ago
Jul 8, 2009 12:22
Jack, consider incremental Aussie longs starting at 0.7790s-0.7800, same goes for AUDJPY at 71.50s

Ashraf
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