Gold & Silver's Dead Cat Bounce

I am short Euro banks now. A correction is due. El captain Blankfein will find a way Deutsche etc. are the cuplrits not GS and not JPM. I would not short DOW. DOW will recover up to 11300 and then fall very hard. Remember I said if China sneezes stocks & hard commodities go to emergency with pneumonia 3 to 4 weeks later.

Hi Ashraf Laidi
Pease coment the follow (discount i'm a newbi)
1 - I see a inverse H&S patern in Gold (xau/usd).
2 - Maybe buy is a good option.
3 - I see strenght in usd.
4 - The correlations betwen usd and gold are negatives.
What i'm seeing wrong?
Best Regards

please ashraf i want you to comment on what happened today i think thats not technical

GOLD SUPPLY & DEMAND TRENDS
TONNES FORECAST Comments
Supply 2008 2009 Growth % 2010 Growth %

Mine supply 2,356 2,432 3.23% 2,435 0.12%

To be reviewed with actual for the first qtr based on WCG reports

Scrap recycling 1,185 1,408 18.82% 1,500 6.53%
Scrap supply to reduce due to low prices this qtr
Hedging 33 38 15.15% 20 -47.37%
Central bank sales 298 351 17.79% 260 -25.93%

CBSL sales to decline this year

Total supply 3,872 4,229 9.22% 4,215 -0.33%

Supply to decline if scrap supply and CBSL sales decline ,out put from mines
Demand
Jewellery fabrication 1,976 1,798 -9.01% 1,600 -11.01%
With china being the number one consumer followed by India (Share more than 35% of world population with GDP forecasted to grow in year 2010 by 10.1% and 8.5% one would expect jewllery demand to grow during Festival and wedding seasons.

Legal tender coins 201 215 6.97% 201 -6.51%
To remain if investment demand grows and prices remain low
Electronics 422 366 -13.27% 390 6.56%

Industrial demand likely to remain stable this year with expected global economic recovery
Other end uses Industrial demand) 313 284 -9.27% 250 -11.97%

Do Do

Etfs 320 576 80.00% 700 21.53%

Could increase if inflationary expectations grow ,along with expansionary fiscal policies across the globe and china launching gold based products with WCG

Central bank purchases 191 380 98.95% 250 -34.21%

CBSL would remain net purchases of gold this year
De-hedging 374 229 -38.77% 120 -47.60%

To decline

Total demand 3,797 3,848 1.34% 3,511 -8.76%

Demand could increase if supply decreases and jewllery demand grows

Residual (surplus/deficit) 75 381 408.00% 704 84.78%

Source -Fortis Virtual metals group while comments made is based on historical analysis of market and past trends.
Actual data to received from World gold council for this quarter
will provide more in sight and direction to gold prices in the ensuing quarters
Current positive correlation ship of gold with equities market world wide and negative correlation ship with EURO/ US dollar will impact world prices as well.
Cost of mining gold per ounce at present is USD 800 per ounce while India puchassed 200 tons of gold at USD 1,040 and ounce from IMF in Dec 2009.
Appreaciate your views on above Ashraf and the rest thanks

please every body keep patience go short they will come down remember 4 feb 2010 ! those people just waiting for excuse to selloff and bring the market down