What's Next for Aussie?

@ laurent, yes agree with your analysis and if true the 5:5 is truncated. Otherwise we are now seeing 4:5:5 or 4:3:5:5 :-) I been comparing the ASX which has been much weaker for risk appetite ! audusd did not make 127% ext ret of last swing down @ 1.0357, lets see if we get the trend line break !

Medium-term Analysis (weekly candlesticks) : AUDUSD has performed a strong rally since November 2008. It seems to me that there is a good chance that the AUD has peaked versus the US Dollar. Here are a few technicals that comfort me in this view:

(i) My Elliot wave count (see chart) is suggesting that the price has just finished the intermediate fifth wave of the primary fifth wave ( remember this is a weekly chart). The latter being a truncated fifth a potent sign of weakness.

(ii) In doing so, the price is designing a potential double top. This reversal price pattern will be confirmed only if 0.95378 is decisively violated on the downside.

(iii) There is a meaningful RSI bearish divergence between primay 3 up and primary 5 (in blue on the chart) that shows to me that behind the new high, there is some underlying weakness. This weakness is reinforced by another bearish divergence between intermediate 3 and intermediate 5 (in red on the chart). These two bearish divergences which are piling on one another is a strong signal that this market is potentially topping.

(iv) A dark cloud cover is currently forming and is confirming a previous dark cloud that took shape 8 weeks ago at the same threshold (1.02). Two weekly bearish candlesticks signals confirming each other at same level are really reinforcing resistance and I do not believe that AUDUSD will go any higher than 1.02558.

Confirmation of the new downtrend will come at the up trendline break which has yet to happen.

go tohttp://globaltechnicals.typepad.com to see the chart.

China related commodity fx continue to go down as i expected.
More rumors of more hikes and higher reserves requirements are most likely to the point.
Food price inflation in China is politically unsustainable. To quell inflation rate must be 8%
I still hold targets AUDUSD 0.98 and 0.95 for first Q and NZDUSD 0.73 0.7 accordingly.

2 yrs ago Aussie rallied due to draught via wheat.

Today it rallies on floods

But $AUDCAD is the only major Aussie cross unable to take out those highs. Also inline with the struggling Gold/Oil Ratio.

Ashraf

@Said I punted rough rice once...it's a nightmare to trade with the wide spread brokers in UK have