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by Ashraf Laidi
Posted: Oct 16, 2008 23:06
Comments: 12
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USDJPY Strategy and Yield Curve Analysis

USDJPY is set for another short-lived attempt of 103 yen while prolonged yield curve steepening in the US, EU and UK tells about the probabilities of incoming rate cuts.
 
Ashraf Laidi
London, UK
Posts: 0
15 years ago
Oct 22, 2008 6:04
Steve, Aussie was propped by higher than expected Q3 CPI figures up 1.3% from 1.5% in Q2 and year on year rate rose to 7-year high of 5.0% so that boosted Aussie but it didnt prevent the currency from falling against the dollar as did all other higher yielders. Cable remains the big short vs USD after those comments from King.
Steve
New York, United States
Posted Anonymously
15 years ago
Oct 22, 2008 5:09
Ashraf,

I have been making money shorting usd/jpy, gbp/usd, eur/usd, thanks to your insight.

This aud/usd is very disappointing, is there life in this pair - aud/usd? Looks like dying. Your thoughts pls. I long 2 orders of aud/usd, losing money, dont know if I should cut loss. Thanks.
Ashraf Laidi
London, UK
Posts: 0
15 years ago
Oct 21, 2008 22:02
Tim, yen is strong due rising risk aversion (falling risk appetite) which drives flows outr of high yielding currencies and into lower yielding currencies such as JPY and USD. It is very important to understand this concept in this environment. This has been single most important dynamic of the past 2 years.

Ive explained risk appetite in detail all over this site, as well as in CHAPTER 5 of my book "Risk Appetite in the Markets", where I use illustrations showing relationship between stocks, VIX, JPY and the higher yielding currencies such as AUD, NZD and GBP. I repeat, if you want to make money in this forex market, you must grasp the concept of Forex and risk appetite. My book is the first ever book to devote a detailed chapter on this. Chapter 5.http://www.ashraflaidi.com/book/
Tim
California, United States
Posted Anonymously
15 years ago
Oct 21, 2008 21:12
Ashraf,
Why is the Yen so strong?
Maybe you've explained it elsewhere and links are ok
Many thanks. Great work!

Tim
Ashraf Laidi
London, UK
Posts: 0
15 years ago
Oct 20, 2008 23:46
Steve,

0.76 seems a decent resistance for AUDUSD as far as best case scenario. Yesterday's Aussie PPi data means tomorrow night's CPI data will be also on the high side and further push Aussie higher. Absent any aggressive seling in Wall St on Tuesday, we may see 0.75 after tomrrow's CPI release.
Steve
New York, United States
Posted Anonymously
15 years ago
Oct 20, 2008 19:46
Ashraf,

What is the upmove target for AUD/USD? 1.76 area? Thanks.
Ashraf Laidi
London, UK
Posts: 0
15 years ago
Oct 20, 2008 11:18
Ken, please contact me at ashraf@ashraflaidi.com
Ken
Sydney, Australia
Posted Anonymously
15 years ago
Oct 20, 2008 5:26
Looking forward to buy your decent book on Dec 15.

BTW, I have asked CMC Markets in Australia but they can only provide your "delayed" daily commentary due to the time lag. How to have your "real-time" commentary? Should I go to UK CMC London headquarters?
Ashraf Laidi
London, UK
Posts: 0
15 years ago
Oct 18, 2008 19:51
Steve,
Yes, prices could RISE towards those resistance levels then are likely to fail. As for the possibility that prices will drop from current level without extending higher to those resistance targets, it is less probable. We'll have to see how sentiment develops early next week. Just say tuned.

As for your statement that I have been "providing free advice all the time after CMC", I am still with CMC. I will be joining our London headquarters in early November, so CMC clients can still receive my analysis. Also, the advice on this site may have been free but it is adhoc, meaning it covers one particular pair or another, and NOT all of them on a daily basis.

At any rate, for all those who have been appreciating these analysis, all of it is covered in bigger detail in my book (gold-oil ratio, yield curve analysis to help you read forex and central banks and carry trades). There's also an extensive section on the dollar and stock market cycles during years of pesidential elections and following elections. The book is due out on Dec 15 but you can pre-order it today at a discount from Amazon by clicking on the book section in this site.

Ashraf



Ashraf Laidi
London, UK
Posts: 0
15 years ago
Oct 18, 2008 19:38
Hi Ken, thanks for your kind words. By becoming a CMC client, you'll be able to obtain my analysis on a daily basis, rather than twice per week as from my website. Since you're based in Australia, here's how to be a CMC client there. http://www.cmcmarkets.com.au/?region=Sydney

Ashraf