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by Ashraf Laidi
Posted: Oct 24, 2008 12:29
Comments: 15
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This thread was started in response to the Article:

Yen's Path of Least Resistance

The collapsing sterling makes the news, but the plunging USDJPY to 13-year lows sends a vocal message to global markets.
 
 
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kristine
Melbourne, Australia
Posted Anonymously
16 years ago
Oct 26, 2008 0:40
Hi Ashraf, Have been following your posts at safehaven.com for a long while, but new to your website which is now a permanently bookmarked. The chart of JPY tops (inverse of the graph) coinciding with Fed starting a new rate rise cycle is now etched into my mind. I wonder if you can point me to any similar monthly chart of USD/AUD?
Ashraf Laidi
London, UK
Posts: 0
16 years ago
Oct 25, 2008 6:54
Ramesh,

The 37% drop in 4 months has been astounding. In the short term, looks like we may test 57 in the next 2 weeks. The main thing for Aussie to rally is for Fed to slash rates by 75 or 100 bps next weeks, which is doing the rounds nows. 50 bps may not cut it. The big question is the duration of Aussie 's long term selloff which i think could last until early Q1. Stay tuned.

Ashraf
Ramesh
Pune, India
Posted Anonymously
16 years ago
Oct 25, 2008 3:45
Hello Ashraf Laidi,

I must say your website is very informative. Would you kindly share your insight on the Aussie dollar as it seems to have collapsed to 62 US cents from 95 plus in a mater of 10 weeks. Do you foresee a upward correction over the next 4-6 months. What would you advise to someone who is holding the Aussie. Kind Regards - Ramesh.
Ashraf Laidi
London, UK
Posts: 0
16 years ago
Oct 24, 2008 18:42
Hi Luca, the rebound in gold will happen at the next dosage of central bank rate cuts. As I said in the piece, gold's jump of mid September occured on the rise in fed funds' expectations for rate cuts by the Fed and other cenbanks following Lehman's collapse. As for collective buying of precious metals, it will happen with more confidence once risk aversion trades diminish, the dollar begins to ease and gold leads the way. This would also be a time of stabilization in the yen. Don't forget Indian Wedding Season starts in November, which is supportive for gold.

Ashraf
Luca
Lausanne, Switzerland
Posted Anonymously
16 years ago
Oct 24, 2008 16:02
Fascinating comments, Ashraf, your website is by far one of the most informative. If liquidation and financial meltdown - driven mostly by equity markets - are going to remain with us for quite a while, what would become the trigger for a rebound in precious metals and where would the ammunition be for institutional investors to drive it? I will definitely buy your book, keep the great job !!!
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