EURUSD 1.1851 |
USDJPY 111.52 |
GBPUSD 1.3772 |
AUDUSD 0.7485 |
USDCAD 1.2406 |
GBPJPY 153.59 |
EURJPY 132.15 |
AUDJPY 83.48 |
CADJPY 89.86 |
Silver 26.23 |
Friday's $2431 high in gold consisted of a 21% rise from the Feb 14th low. Such percentage extensions from key lows or/and technical levels such as the 200-DMA, could flag crucial opportunities for partial/full profit-taking. Watch here.
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tell me what u think of this. i wrote thsi in june last year and send it aco^mpanying cover letter to corp in edimburg and ashraf. that was my projection at june 2009.
I am a follower of Elliott wave theory on technical analysis. We had two market top, one in february 2008 at the thousand level and another one in january 2009 above the thousand level. At this point the effect of supply and demand at the macroeconomic and micro one played its entire effect. We haven't noticed a disruption on the supply side, well contrary producing countries such as South Africa haven't reduced their production even with the energy disruption problems that are gonna stay inherent for some years.
The impact of the EURUSD parity on the gold fixing has been noticed with the making of the second top. I am a partisan on the fact that gold price won't be subject of disruption on the supply demand side entirely but will be a factor of the evolution of the EURUSD. According to market wave pattern the parity will go the level of 1.32 before bouncing back to the 1.37 level. If that occurs the made of triangle or a range can signal us the apex point at which the parity will break below the 1.29 1.30 level. That will give me a shorting signal on the gold market and a flight to hedge positions. I will intend not to only pick up strong balance sheet, strong solvability ratio, adequate debt level companies but in order to follow the trend i will advice you to select Ultra short ETF such as the Proshare and goes long on prefered notes that are gonna pay more than holding the share.
I don't know the purpose of your investment vehicle if it is for holding position for third parties in sight of a consolidation in the, for instance, TSX exchange place or if it is for enhancing a return on investment.
To come back to the impact of the parity on the XAUUSD i am projecting a downward movement after the triple top that has been made last week at the 992 level. This represents the scenario number one. The second scenario represents the formation of a consolidation pattern that has begun at the january top and that gonna last till the fourth quarter before we enter in the last upward wave, the fifth one.
On the inflation matter which correlate the level of price of gold, i am more keen to choose the first scenario. The fact that inflation in asset prices won't be present at this time because the market hasn't yet absorbed the levels of market risks (due to depreciation of the illiquid and toxic asset, impact of the upcoming economic and not financial crisis in corporate evaluation...), my opinion goes for a period of time where global ressources and especially gold will deflate in term value.
On the macro side for the main commodities exporting nations, that will incurs some trouble in fiscal deficit which provide a direct consequences on their respectives currencies and local denominated corporate and government debt. The only concrete avenue for sustaining the gdp growth of this exporting countries within the scenario of a fall in gold value, will come from the USDYEN. It is hard for developped nations that have headed toward a zero interest policy to sustain it and so the japanese will prevail as a carry trade currency.
today, i correct triple top by head and shoulder
see the decorrelation between physical gold and paper gold.
Can you please advise me on silver? I'm reading rave reviews about the metal's near future. I also remember you wanted to add silver to your portfolio?
Around what price would you jump in? 13-ish, perhaps? If, according to your analysis, gold will be plummeting to 1000, silver should be around the 13 mark too. What do you say? Thanks!
Asad
http://www.zerohedge.com/article/asia-times-david-goldman-discusses-imminent-chinese-asset-dump
Asad
Asad
Remember that w/ this, China's also tightening its MP...so as to prevent wages & other costs from going up (as excess liquidity dries up). This would prevent imports from getting expensive...
Asad
Don't be sexist! :p '...everyone and his (and HER) grandma...'.
Btw, heard your mates in Germany are bailing out Greece?! Germans bailing out Greeks. Ha! This is going to be funny... ;)
Asad
This is like ooooooooooooohhhhhhh...
http://www.zerohedge.com/article/china-dumping-begins-reserve-managers-notified-any-non-usg-guaranteed-securities-must-be-div
...in case we forget who holds the stick!
Asad
Further to my last comment that the dollar index would rescind below 80 as the Greek outlook improves, the Index has indeed breached the 80 mark.
This is just to remind you that the dollar strength, IMO, is not innate...rather due to extraordinary factors like the PIGS situation. Let's say, if the Greek crisis were to be resolved today, the Index would fall back to pre-Greek level of 78-ish! Oil would jump back to 77 and gold to 1190.
What do you think?
Asad