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by Ashraf Laidi
Posted: Aug 22, 2009 3:37
Comments: 852
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This thread was started in response to the Article:

VIX, Oil, BRICS & Sterling's Sell-Appeal

BRICS equity indices fail at key fib retracements, VIX and oil near major trend lines and sterling's sell-appeal hasn't looked this good in a while.
 
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Ashraf Laidi
London, UK
Posts: 0
14 years ago
Feb 8, 2010 22:44
chlie, i called 1.0550 as a support NOt as a target. USD and JPY are soaring and those CAD longs are quickly eroding. This is fast action. fundamntl:excuse Fed hawkishness (bullard); 1st Dow close ᝺K since Novv, China tightening this wk b4 NYears

Ashraf
chloethebull
Posted Anonymously
14 years ago
Feb 8, 2010 22:01
hi ashraf, do u still see 1.0550 in usdcad? i see canadian data is light this week an was wonder what might be the catalyst to drop the usd ..also will we see 1.0800 before 1.0550..thanks have a nice day
Ashraf Laidi
UK
Posted Anonymously
14 years ago
Feb 8, 2010 21:48
Asad, my appologies for that error. You were absolutely correct to state that Crude WTI has usually exceeded Brent. I must have been confused by that temporary reversal (in H2 2008) when crude fell below brent, which was partly due to mispricing (overstorage) in Cushing Oklahoma. main reason to usual spread is import costs.

Ashraf
montmorency
Abingdon, UK
Posts: 610
14 years ago
Feb 8, 2010 12:46
@Asad: Kind of you to say so, but if you had seen some of my trading history....
It was a case of fools rushing in where angels (or wise men) fear to tread ... :-)
It has taken me nearly 2 years to realise I have to learn more about how the market works, and not just think I can do it all from the chart. Ashraf has been a big part of that.



Thanks for the heads-up on the US/Tehran issue.
Callum
Singapore, Singapore
Posts: 179
14 years ago
Feb 8, 2010 12:45
Personally, I prefer to look at correlation with CAD with Oil, and trade the USD/CAD instead or at times CAD/JPY. Lately though, I am also considering trading Oil ....
asad
London, UK
Posted Anonymously
14 years ago
Feb 8, 2010 11:30
...and by the session I also mean how the US government reacts to Tehran's intentions on enriching their nuclear fuel!


Asad
asad
London, UK
Posted Anonymously
14 years ago
Feb 8, 2010 11:27
Mont,

You's STILL be a better trader than myself! Having burnt your fingers translates to trading experience. And I envy you that you, & anyone, can EVEN put in a forex trade! It's the final frontier of trading...and I'm YET to cross over into it. That's why I'm starting at the county level - oil *smiles* - before I'm ready for the rigour of international cricket. ;)

On the business side, I agree that oil's screaming 'short, short'. I can foresee 70 being breached...but a LOT depends on the American session...


Asad
montmorency
Abingdon, UK
Posts: 610
14 years ago
Feb 8, 2010 11:11
@Asad: Well, burned fingers in gold before oil, and left it well alone for a long time, but getting back into it now.

Oil may be slightly less volatile, but the direction seems, to use your word, irrational at times. At least there are certain fundamentals that it obeys at certain times, although not all the time. I need to study it more. If I were trading it today, I'd probably short it, to say 71 - 70.75, but I'm not going to. I'll treat that as a paper trade :-)
asad
London, UK
Posted Anonymously
14 years ago
Feb 8, 2010 8:58
Montmorency,

Can't believe it! You've traded gold & FOREX (mother of all trading afa risk goes) & you've burnt fingers w/ oil?! I've NEVER traded forex, albeit I believe oil's wayyyyy less volatile than gold & DEFINITELY forex!

Yeah, the last few days were a great opportunity to lose money in oil - behaved rather irrationally by jumping around like a yoyo...


Asad
montmorency
Abingdon, UK
Posts: 610
14 years ago
Feb 8, 2010 0:27
@Asad: interesting comment re technicals, fundamentals and "the herd". We will see! :-)

As for oil, I seem to have had my hands full enough with FX and gold to even think about oil, although of course it's not really something the intermarket trader should ignore. With hindsight, I can now see what a great opportunity there was there in the last few trading days. I should probably paper or demo trade it for while, before committing any money to it, as in the past I've had my fingers burned with it.
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