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by Ashraf Laidi
Posted: Aug 22, 2009 3:37
Comments: 852
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VIX, Oil, BRICS & Sterling's Sell-Appeal

BRICS equity indices fail at key fib retracements, VIX and oil near major trend lines and sterling's sell-appeal hasn't looked this good in a while.
 
slaiman7
Lebanon
Posted Anonymously
12 years ago
Sep 25, 2009 22:23
Said,
The reason i believe that we are going to test march low's again is because I believe a credit contraction of the scale we are witnessing is simply too enormous to be resolved within few months and with few decisions by central banks.
Monetary policy has been proven to be lagging behind actual economy. In other words, central banks are REactive rather than being PROactive. Thus what has been done to face the crisis so far is only a reaction to what has happened. I believe that we are going to face another wave of problems very soon which central banks have not done anything yet in anticipation of them.
To me, there is a small chance for stocks to make new highs this year, but I see a good chance that stocks test march lows some time towards the end of this year or early next yr.
I know might opinion sounds a bit radical, but, hay, we are going through extraordinary times where anything is possible.

said
mulhouse, France
Posts: 2822
12 years ago
Sep 25, 2009 21:25
slaiman
as for oil i do also see it touching the 37 40 level by year end. can u explain me ur point of view
as for march lows i do share ur views mainly because the batch of corporate result will not meet expected forecast( as seen for RIM) and unexpected bad economic figure in term of result of credit, consumption, saving rate ( which increased), real estate stock held by bank nad their impact on the housing industry.
but before having a correction i still see legs in the equity market after next week sell off continuation.
speculator
Posted Anonymously
12 years ago
Sep 25, 2009 20:59
slaiman im not sure about equities selling off to test march lows but some sell off and oil downside will help dollar rise. other factors will aid dollar and this is likely to be monetary policy from fed that would also help cap stocks
slaiman7
Lebanon
Posts: 31
12 years ago
Sep 25, 2009 20:41
I join my voice to Spec's, calling for a resumption of the secular dollar bull market. Thus, I expect equities to retest their march lows.
I also expect oil to go below $40.


said
mulhouse, France
Posts: 2822
12 years ago
Sep 25, 2009 20:34
ASHRAF
CAN WE SEE ANOTHER ROUND OF SELLOFF IN THE DOW JONES ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY
speculator
Posted Anonymously
12 years ago
Sep 25, 2009 18:54
ashraf, yes 15% decline in stocks sounds right for a march retest but negative interest rates and/or sterling carry trade can possibly do the trick and retest march lows.

we will see..
Ashraf Laidi
London, UK
Posts: 0
12 years ago
Sep 25, 2009 14:33
spec, 1.36 in next few quarters? the ONLY reason i see very little chance (about 10-15%) of GBPUSD below 1.45 is due to dollar weakness. UK fundamentals are indeed ugly. So in order for sub 1.45 to happen, we would have to see at least 15% selloff in STOCKS and more bad news specifically from UK. For now, 1.57 and 1.53 are my gateways.

raj, i see oil going to 63, in which case could take GBPUSD towards 1.54-1,55 and EURUSD to 1.44.

Ashraf
rajesh68
Singapore
Posts: 60
12 years ago
Sep 25, 2009 13:03
Hi said, Ashraf has given a level of below 90 for usdyen. I do not see an immediate pull back. Thanks
rajesh68
Singapore
Posts: 60
12 years ago
Sep 25, 2009 13:01
Hi Ashraf,

I am sorry to keep my question brief. I knew it wd be bearish. I wanted to know how much bearish (levels). specially for eurUSD. Further, should not oil be below 66 for a few trading session to finally move to 'definitely bearish'?
speculator
Posted Anonymously
12 years ago
Sep 25, 2009 12:36
ashraf do u know a guy called nadeem wayalat? he predicted 87 crash and march stealth market in stocks. he believes sterling will resume its bear and will break lows reached in march this year/next due to dollar strength and pound weekness. So he thinks 1.36 will be broken in the next few quarters.

what do you think?