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by Ashraf Laidi
Posted: Sep 11, 2009 14:18
Comments: 103
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This thread was started in response to the Article:

Unusual FX Action?

Broadening USD weakness is joined by broad yen strength rather than weakness could have implications for FX view on appetite.
 
Ashraf Laidi
London, UK
Posts: 0
12 years ago
Sep 23, 2009 0:19
pepe, yes, that's very possible. thus, we could see USD weakness with US stocks tiring a bit (not necesarily crashing). we saw this for a while in May-June i believe

smjones. Thanks and welcome.

Taha, I'm still bearish GBP. 1.64 resistance and even as high as 1.65 but this should retest 1.61 and 1.60

Ashraf
Ashraf Laidi
London, UK
Posts: 0
12 years ago
Sep 23, 2009 0:12
Rob, ive been in talk with a few sites to establish the calendar and streaming news. it's taking time.

Ashraf

Rob
New York, United States
Posts: 305
12 years ago
Sep 22, 2009 16:00
nzvik, taha, and smjones - thanks for your responses. smjones, I agree, if/when I trade from news announcements I'm always in out and VERY quickly to capture any amount of pips. I guess that's the adrenaline rush I enjoy, and perhaps the gambler in me. Personally, I feel all capital markets are one big casino - granted with technicals and fundamentals.
said
mulhouse, France
Posts: 2822
12 years ago
Sep 22, 2009 12:27
thanks jones
smjones
United States
Posts: 2
12 years ago
Sep 22, 2009 11:54
Said,

As I see it, The funding currency will always gravitate to the lowest interest rate. Right now, that is the Yen at .10 and then the USD and the CAD at .25. The problem with the dollar is that the very moment that the Fed even whispers a Hawkish word, the dollar looses that appeal. Until that time, the Dollar is a cheap funding currency. Personally, I don't see how there could be any hawkish talk in the near future. Now that the new government of Japan says they are not going to intervene so much through the BOJ, I think the Yen is going to continue to drift upward, until that stance is recanted. I think they will of course change their minds, because Japan is primarily an export country and a strong yen is devastating to their exports.

On a side note, I wonder what will happen with the KIWI, It seems to me, they are in a similar boat as the US, with the large deficit spending, only they already have a climbing interest rate.
said
mulhouse, France
Posts: 2822
12 years ago
Sep 22, 2009 11:40
spec
as for usd carry cuurency invested in aussie denominated asset what do you think of futures of carry trade in australia when the usd carry trade will vanish? it looks reaaly improbable that sterling will take place as a carry currency.
i am thinking about swiss franc to be the next partner in the carry trade scheme but the funding won't come from usd.
your opinion pls
taha
Cairo, Egypt
Posts: 50
12 years ago
Sep 22, 2009 10:56
Hi Ashraf ,
Happy Eid for you and all muslims . I would like to know do you still recommend to sell the pound and which curreny do you prefer to buy it now ? .
Thank you and Happy Eid again .
Taha
pepe
london, UK
Posts: 15
12 years ago
Sep 22, 2009 10:52
Hi Ashraf,

one question reading your book: in recent years USD/JPY was positively correlated to $SPX: how do you see EUR/USD at 1.58 and USD/JPY at 87-90 by year end being a possible outcome? Do you think that the previous pattern I mentioned USD/JPY- SPX500 will be broken this time?

Thanks for your answer,

P
taha
Cairo, Egypt
Posts: 50
12 years ago
Sep 22, 2009 10:50
Hi Rob ,
I can recommend forexfcatory site too . it is the fast one and it has charts for the economic data realse .
Regards .
Taha
smjones
United States
Posts: 2
12 years ago
Sep 22, 2009 10:06
I can recommend Forex Factory for quick response calendar. However, I may be a bit bias. LOL

You can also get very good real time feeds like Dow Jones and Thompson from some of the brokers out there, with only a free demo account. I don't know if it would break any forum rules to list them , so I won't until told it is ok.

I have found that it would be a bit dangerous to trade directly from any news announcement, though. I have always had better success in waiting for the smoke to clear a bit and then trading the reaction afterward.

It has also been my experience that news really does not change a trend and unless the trade is very short term, the news has little impact on less volatile time frames.

BTW the statements by the new government in Japan have certainly added to the yen strength and the overall unusual FX behavior. This was an excellent article.

A friend just recommended this site to me and as I have followed Mr. Laidi's analysis for years and also from another broker, where I started years ago, I am very glad to have subscribed to this site.

Thanks and Kind Regards, Scott