EUR

I hear you DaveO. There was no watching on a tv screen for me, I was there.

I like Hewson, we have very similar sense of humour and a mighty good dollop of scepticism. He be a true Brit methinks, and there aint many of us left now in this country lol.

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Where am I? > Home > Foreign Exchange

Forecast
CMC Markets wins with strong euro expectations versus the dollar

Author: Miriam Siers
Source: FX Week | 29 Aug 2011

Categories: Foreign Exchange

Topics: CMC Markets
europeanparliament

CMC Markets tops this week's 12-month currency forecast rankings

London-based online foreign exchange trading firm CMC Markets has topped this week's 12-month currency forecast after predicting a stronger euro on the back of an expected rise in equity markets.

On August 20, 2010, the firm predicted EUR/USD would rise from 1.2710 to 1.3 in 12 months, while the consensus view was that the pair would fall to 1.1919. On Monday August 22, EUR/USD hit 1.4405. Similarly, strategists at CMC forecasted that EUR/JPY would rise from 108.41 to 115.7 in one year. The currency was trading at 110.66 last Monday.

The Eurostoxx 50 index fell from 2,643.98 to 2,183.39 over the same period but reached a 12-month high of 3,068 on February 18.

"The thing with EUR/USD is it tends to do well when equities are doing well," said Michael Hewson, market analyst at CMC Markets in London. "We also had just had the first round of European bank stress tests, and the European situation was looking slightly better as a result."

At the time, the spotlight was on the European Central Bank (ECB), which was widely expected to raise interest rates, in contrast to the Federal Reserve, which was expected to begin a second round of quantitative easing, dubbed QE2. As it turned out, the ECB raised interest rates twice, in April and July.

None of the regular forecasters 12 months ago predicted USD/CHF would fall below parity in a year's time, but the pair was trading at 0.7862 on August 22.

"The franc is one of the least-watched currencies and also the hardest to predict. Who would have thought a year ago the Swiss National Bank would have started quantitative easing to stem the rise of the franc? It is also a reflection of the deteriorating risk backdrop over the past six months," Hewson said.

In 12 months, Hewson expects EUR/USD to fall to 1.35. "It is really an assessment of where rates will go in the near future. Many expect the ECB to continue to tighten rates going forward, but I am not convinced of that. I don't see how it can afford to. I think 1.45/1.46 is top of the range for now," he said.

ya its hard to get my way when traveling with gf,her mother and 83yr old grandmother lol but its been a great trip loved chking out the castles from the midevil period plus i had my chance to get a good buzz on @salutations &trip to jeruselum(oldest pub/inn)not sure in the world or just the uk..thats what i enjoy doing taking in the history and talking to the locals and hearing storys lol:)today was spent at chatsworth castle its only dates back to 1700s but lots of fasinating things to see:)..ok getting late need to sleep gl/gt guys:)

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/sport/football/competitions/premier-league/8752260/Norwich-City-0-West-Bromwich-Albion-1-match-report.html

west brom has won the game at last