EUR

said
i won't trade TRY damn' hi spreads ... today was excellent shorted XAU sold JPY and CHF went long silver long copper EURCAD short etc. all with OCO orders had up to 20 pos running and up to 40 k margin ..lots of adrenaline now its all closed

ashraf,
4 weeks ago (3rd Aug), i asked you if the goalposts had changed with regards to your euro call for 117.
your response was:
"sub, i havent moved the goal posts. back in May i was calling for 1.15, then in end of June i called for an immediate target of 1.17 and we missed that by some 50 pips. Now i call the euro rally to dissipate at around 1.33. when i say theres 70% chance for 1.2770 by end of Q4, it means that thers a strong chance we would have hit 1.2770 by end of Q4 and NOT that necessarily it will BE there at end of Q4. look for risk aversion and soverign concern to re-escalate in early Q4 that will take down EUR back to below 1.20. This euro rebound has especially been boosted by the negative US data and resulting Fed rehtoric"

good call on euro - we hit that 12770. but do you still see risk aversion and sovereign concern causing eur falling back to below 1.20 in Q4? i noticed you recently said chances of 117 are diminishing.

regards

memory i.e. a system with memory is not computable.
However it is obvious that chartists don't get it the foremost important fact currencies are not independent of each other , however charts apply only to independent variables such as the price of IBM is independent of the price of GE but EUR is not independent of USD
next point: there are no speculators in fx only hedgers while in stock markets there are only speculators conclusion: sentiment plays no role in fx thus one cannot analyse fx with the same methods as stocks.

catnip
back in january i was stating that GBPTRY will come to 2.25. it did , so now what is next on ur screen. rather play TRY vs EURO?
we re back in regional dynamic with eastern european currencies

catnip
again bad advising made bad decision making for bad timing.
how do u integrate behavioural trading in mathemical integral knowing the constant that behaviour repeats itself.
what i meant by thinking out of teh box is that most forecaster and economics expose their sights according to an economic theory that has prevailed the last thirty years but this crisis has open a new window in the economic model of a country. i never heard roubini or another economist talking about expansion of economic model and this is what we experienced, nothing more than "expendable". the corporate phase in which are the mnc and conglomerate show a maturity in debt and the crisis has allow for some to restructure and rearrange their debt for the next five years. futures capacity of production are revised at the high level compared with the level of investment of asian conglomerate. Matsushita san said when he had to restructibg its businesses that it was a period of full opportunities. the dynamic is there especially in germany . why germany is in recovery whilst the rest of europe is lagging? simple because some investor are buying or because frankfurt is factoring in the price of multiyears corporate plans.
an exemple the cooperation between mercedes benz nad renault? how do u foresee except in sharing the technological platform to build car of the future. in that case if mercedes catches a caugh the renault is ill not vice versa.
the big player that has a clear multi years plan in france is Saint Gobain. we'll need a coffee break in frankfurt to talk about it. next time maybe