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by Ashraf Laidi
Posted: Feb 20, 2010 5:00
Comments: 30765
Posted: Feb 20, 2010 5:00
Comments: 30765
Forum Topic:
EUR
Discuss EUR in this thread
Even that i doubt for Day
1.3245-50 is max i expect b4 close
The swing is far more defined with 15890 low-side with 15955 top-side
Shortly yesterday top will be broken 15966 will be taken-out to test 15985 b4 close today
trend is change now
bulls are come
thnx
http://bruxelles.blogs.liberation.fr/ING.pdf
That's worth it !
MEANWHILE 160 FOR CABLE HOLDS AS A FIRM RESISTANCE THAT WILL NOT BREAK FOR NOW.
IF I KEEP THINGS SIMPLE I CAN VERY EASY TO SHORT AND HOLD POUND FOR 155/154 THAT WE WILL HIT BY NEXT MONTH. UP SIDE IS LIMITED LIKE WISE LOOK FOR 128 SUPPORT FOR EURO AGAIN. NFP THIS WEEK.
It will shoot to sucessfully touch 1.3430 b4 a correction can set in
This can happen this week itself
if all parameters and news out of US supportive
Pound moving to take out 1.5630 levels today
Can move another 200pips upside this week b4 a correction
cheers
i don't attribute the lifeboat image to China....
China has not succeeded in reducing its dependency on exports and its domestic markets cannot sustain itself... China MUST create some x million of NEW JOBS every year ... their subsidies of roughly USD 600 bln failed to achieve this politically extremely important goal ... futheron investors look only at the few propering cities but never at the rural areas where 70% of China's population lives. There is a big social bomb ticking ... and they are all communists keep that in mind
i am very cautious with bets on China
Ashraf
Any more Euro shorts out there?
Euro will keep rising until all shorts are done with
The prospect of QE is huge for the US
This is driven by slowdown in consumer spending and phase out of the stimulus packages
Double dip / deflation is serious
corporations are rational - making good profits but not hiring and hoarding cash for tax hikes and more contractions
Ben and Co are going to get in the groove - couple of more monthly negative employment reports needed
On the other side, Trichet is taking the "anti inflationary policies" stance. As if he has many other options.
I think the Dollar could end aronud 1.5 by end 2010.
However, this is not much
What would amount to be big would be a short and hard landing for the dollar when global central banks readjust their hoardings.
China is the only credible force in the market who can adjust the dollar or euro rates and prevent a free fall as seen recently in the Euro reversal.
What stands in between a big Dollar fall and continued slow "talked down" depreciation of the dollar is China.
have you now thrown in the towel on 117 for euro? you say 70% chance of 12770 by end of Q4. Does that mean the goalposts have changed by 10 big figures?
Good call on 13250, but how much higher from here in your opinion?