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by Ashraf Laidi
Posted: Feb 20, 2010 5:00
Comments: 30765
Forum Topic:

EUR

Discuss EUR in this thread
 
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Ashraf Laidi
UK
Posted Anonymously
14 years ago
Aug 3, 2010 10:21
Nour, read that carefully again; i said 1.3250s in that last post.

3mth EURIBOR still pushing higher while 3mth EUR LIBOR starting to retreat and USD 3mth libor extends decline.

Ashraf
Mike.c
Florida, United States
Posts: 5
14 years ago
Aug 3, 2010 10:01
Euro is bullish in every time frame from 5min to the 4 hour and daily also.
" trend is your frined" first rule of trading
Nour
Casablanca, Morocco
Posts: 15
14 years ago
Aug 3, 2010 9:43
@Ashraf Laidi :still see 1.17 in late Q3 but for NOW taregtting 1.3120. today looks well retest 1.2930.

i said this many times on this forum and my twitter in past 5 days

Ashraf hehehe nice joke :P
Ashraf Laidi
London, UK
Posts: 0
14 years ago
Aug 3, 2010 0:47
70% chance of seeing a break below 1.2770 by end of Q4. please do not ask me what month and what day. the break aboved 1.3130 was a veryhelpful signal to get us towards 1.3250s.


As i said on CNBC today, USD 3 month libor is falling in a way that is similar to late Q3 2009.

Ashraf
macrosam
United States
Posts: 190
14 years ago
Aug 2, 2010 22:47
Don't disagree, just pointing out that even as excess liquidity gets drained (less supply), EONIA is still declining. So it appears that the decrease in supply is being overshadowed by a decrease in demand.
catnip
Frankfurt, Germany
Posted Anonymously
14 years ago
Aug 2, 2010 22:38
The drop in EONIA which increased in speed in the last 2 days of July CAN be interpreted as
decreasing demand however I interpreted it and stated here as a sign the EUR could become a sort of carry trade currency buying e.g. into stocks and hence increasing demand
macrosam
United States
Posts: 190
14 years ago
Aug 2, 2010 21:40
EONIA is ticking down again, now five days in a row. However, this is not coming as a result of an increase in excess liquidity as both the most recent rolls of the 1 week and 3 month (when combined with the 1 month also expiring on 11 Aug) show that excess liquidity is progressively being drained. I believe the downtick in EONIA is now reflecting a decrease in demand for EUR likely to be driven by the following:

1) ECB essentially indicating that the full allocation repos will be extended into 2011, taking off the table concerns of end of year liquidity concerns, and

2) The Eurozone will have comparable USD funding needs for the remainder of 2010 as it did in the first half of 2010. I don't believe this USD will be swapped back into EUR, or at least not the majority of it, reflecting a need to fund USD denominated liabilities.

I am waiting to short EUR/USD around the 1.3250 - 1.3300 level, anticipating that may present itself on Thursday or Friday of this week. First target is at the 1.2600 level.
Ignore
Jamaica
Posted Anonymously
14 years ago
Aug 2, 2010 21:24
Ashraf: assuming members from forexnews too rough for this forum? :)
Nipu
Antwerp, Belgium
Posts: 2
14 years ago
Aug 2, 2010 19:23
Ashraf what are the possibilties for a break below 1.2770 in euro .. how long the bullish trend to continue
Ashraf Laidi
London, UK
Posts: 0
14 years ago
Aug 2, 2010 16:53
No i havent thrown the towel on 1.17 but we need a serious reason to break below 1.25 in Q4.

The sovereign situation in Eurozone remains dubious ta best.

Ashraf
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