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by Ashraf Laidi
Posted: Feb 20, 2010 5:00
Comments: 30765
Posted: Feb 20, 2010 5:00
Comments: 30765
Forum Topic:
EUR
Discuss EUR in this thread
3mth EURIBOR still pushing higher while 3mth EUR LIBOR starting to retreat and USD 3mth libor extends decline.
Ashraf
" trend is your frined" first rule of trading
i said this many times on this forum and my twitter in past 5 days
Ashraf hehehe nice joke :P
As i said on CNBC today, USD 3 month libor is falling in a way that is similar to late Q3 2009.
Ashraf
decreasing demand however I interpreted it and stated here as a sign the EUR could become a sort of carry trade currency buying e.g. into stocks and hence increasing demand
1) ECB essentially indicating that the full allocation repos will be extended into 2011, taking off the table concerns of end of year liquidity concerns, and
2) The Eurozone will have comparable USD funding needs for the remainder of 2010 as it did in the first half of 2010. I don't believe this USD will be swapped back into EUR, or at least not the majority of it, reflecting a need to fund USD denominated liabilities.
I am waiting to short EUR/USD around the 1.3250 - 1.3300 level, anticipating that may present itself on Thursday or Friday of this week. First target is at the 1.2600 level.
The sovereign situation in Eurozone remains dubious ta best.
Ashraf